A Continuous Time Markov Chain Based Sequential Analytical Approach for Composite Power System Reliability Assessment

This paper proposes a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) based sequential analytical approach for composite generation and transmission systems reliability assessment. The basic idea is to construct a CTMC model for the composite system. Based on this model, sequential analyses are performed. Various kinds of reliability indices can be obtained, including expectation, variance, frequency, duration and probability distribution. In order to reduce the dimension of the state space, traditional CTMC modeling approach is modified by merging all high order contingencies into a single state, which can be calculated by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Then a state mergence technique is developed to integrate all normal states to further reduce the dimension of the CTMC model. Moreover, a time discretization method is presented for the CTMC model calculation. Case studies are performed on the RBTS and a modified IEEE 300-bus test system. The results indicate that sequential reliability assessment can be performed by the proposed approach. Comparing with the traditional sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, the proposed method is more efficient, especially in small scale or very reliable power systems.

A Reliability Assessment Approach For Integrated Transportation and Electrical Power Systems Incorporating Electric Vehicles

With the increasing utilization of electric vehicles (EVs), transportation systems and electrical power systems are becoming increasingly coupled. However, the interaction between these two kinds of systems are not well captured, especially from the perspective of transportation systems. This paper studies the reliability of integrated transportation and electrical power system (ITES). A bidirectional EV charging control strategy is first demonstrated to model the interaction between the two systems. Thereafter, a simplified transportation system model is developed, whose high efficiency makes the reliability assessment of the ITES realizable with an acceptable accuracy. Novel transportation system reliability indices are then defined from the view point of EV’s driver. Based on the charging control model and the transportation simulation method, a daily periodic quasi sequential reliability assessment method is proposed for the ITES system. Case studies based on RBTS system demonstrate that bidirectional charging controls of EVs will benefit the reliability of power systems, while decrease the reliability of EVs travelling. Also, the optimal control strategy can be obtained based on the proposed method. Finally, case studies are performed based on a large scale test system to verify the practicability of the proposed method.

Functional identity and diversity of animals predict ecosystem functioning better than species-based indices

Drastic biodiversity declines have raised concerns about the deterioration of ecosystem functions and have motivated much recent research on the relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functioning. A functional trait framework has been proposed to improve the mechanistic understanding of this relationship, but this has rarely been tested for organisms other than plants. We analysed eight datasets, including five animal groups, to examine how well a trait-based approach, compared with a more traditional taxonomic approach, predicts seven ecosystem functions below- and above-ground. Trait-based indices consistently provided greater explanatory power than species richness or abundance. The frequency distributions of single or multiple traits in the community were the best predictors of ecosystem functioning. This implies that the ecosystem functions we investigated were underpinned by the combination of trait identities (i.e. single-trait indices) and trait complementarity (i.e. multi-trait indices) in the communities. Our study provides new insights into the general mechanisms that link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning in natural animal communities and suggests that the observed responses were due to the identity and dominance patterns of the trait composition rather than the number or abundance of species per se.

Analysis of financial indices by means of the windowed Fourier transform

The goal of this study is to analyze the dynamical properties of financial data series from nineteen worldwide stock market indices (SMI) during the period 1995–2009. SMI reveal a complex behavior that can be explored since it is available a considerable volume of data. In this paper is applied the window Fourier transform and methods of fractional calculus. The results reveal classification patterns typical of fractional order systems.

Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

Power characteristics of dielectric optical piet hein waveguides

A fairly rigorous analytical treatment of the power characteristics of dielectric optical waveguides with Piet Hein core-cross sectional geometry is presented in this paper. This kind of wareguide structure would be advantageous owing to the absence of corners, which are found in rectangular guides, resulting in undesirable loss (hit to the scattering of light. In order to simplify this theoretical approach. em approximation of vanishing refractive index difference between the guiding and the non-guiding sections is implemented. The variation eJ logarithmic power is shown for different dimensions of the core, corresponding to different azimuthal modal indices. It is found that the nutlet with higher index values carry less logaritlunic power in the lower tail of the propagation 's constant range, and this feature affects the higher tail. A better kind of uniformity of the power distribution is observed near the higher tail of the range of propagation Constants

On the use of headline indices to link environmental quality and income at the level of the nation state

This paper deconstructs the relationship between the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) and national income. The ESI attempts to provide a single figure which encapsulates environmental sustainability' for each country included in the analysis, and this allied with a 'league table' format so as to name and shame bad performers, has resulted in widespread reporting within the popular presses of a number of countries. In essence, the higher the value of the ESI then the more 'environmentally sustainable' a country is deemed to be. A logical progression beyond the use of the ESI to publicise environmental sustainability is its use within a more analytical context. Thus an index designed to simplify in order to have an impact on policy is used to try and understand causes of good and bad performance in environmental sustainability. For example the creators of the ESI claim that ESI is related to GDP/capita (adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity) such that the ESI increases linearly with wealth. While this may in a sense be a comforting picture, do the variables within the ESI allow for alternatives to the story, and if they do then what are the repercussions for those producing such indices for broad consumption amongst the policy makers, mangers, the press, etc.? The latter point is especially important given the appetite for such indices amongst non-specialists, and for all their weaknesses the ESI and other such aggregated indices will not go away. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional identity and diversity of animals predict ecosystem functioning better than species-based indices

Drastic biodiversity declines have raised concerns about the deterioration of ecosystem functions and have motivated much recent research on the relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functioning. A functional trait framework has been proposed to improve the mechanistic understanding of this relationship, but this has rarely been tested for organisms other than plants. We analysed eight datasets, including five animal groups, to examine how well a trait-based approach, compared with a more traditional taxonomic approach, predicts seven ecosystem functions below- and above-ground. Trait-based indices consistently provided greater explanatory power than species richness or abundance. The frequency distributions of single or multiple traits in the community were the best predictors of ecosystem functioning. This implies that the ecosystem functions we investigated were underpinned by the combination of trait identities (i.e. single-trait indices) and trait complementarity (i.e. multi-trait indices) in the communities. Our study provides new insights into the general mechanisms that link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning in natural animal communities and suggests that the observed responses were due to the identity and dominance patterns of the trait composition rather than the number or abundance of species per se.

Purchasing power parity: the choice of price index

Looking closely at the PPP argument, it states that the currencies purchasing power should not change when comparing the same basket goods across countries, and these goods should all be tradable. Hence, if PPP is valid at all, it should be captured by the relative price indices that best Öts these two features. We ran a horse race among six di§erent price indices available from the IMF database to see which one would yield higher PPP evidence, and, therefore, better Öt the two features. We used RER proxies measured as the ratio of export unit values, wholesale prices, value added deáators, unit labor costs, normalized unit labor costs and consumer prices, for a sample of 16 industrial countries, with quarterly data from 1975 to 2002. PPP was tested using both the ADF and the DFGLS unit root test of the RER series. The RER measured as WPI ratios was the one for which PPP evidence was found for the larger number of countries: six out of sixteen when we use DF-GLS test with demeaned series. The worst measure of all was the RER based on the ratio of foreign CPIs and domestic WPI. No evidence of PPP at all was found for this measure.

Sleep complaints and polysomnographic findings: A study of nuclear power plant shift workers

The literature widely recognizes that shift workers have more health complaints than the general population. The objective of this study was to describe the prevalence of sleep complaints and verify the polysomnographic (PSG) variables of shift workers in two Brazilian nuclear power plants. We carried out a subjective evaluation with a sleep questionnaire. Based on these results, the interviewees that reported sleep-related complaints were referred for polysomnographic evaluation. of the 327 volunteers initially evaluated by the sleep questionnaire, 113 (35%) reported sleep complaints; they were significantly older, had higher body mass index (BMI), and worked more years on shifts than those without sleep complaints. of these 113, 90 met criteria for various sleep disorders: 30 (9%) showed obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), 18 (5.5%) showed limb movement, and 42 (13%) evidenced both sleep problems and had a significantly higher proportion of sleep stage 1 and arousals compared with the 23 shift workers that had no indices of sleep problems. The present study found that 90 (27.5%) of the evaluated participants met the PSG criteria of some type of clinical sleep disorder. This high proportion should be investigated for associations with other aspects of work, such as working hours, working schedule, years performing shift work, and access to health services. Due to the strong association between sleep disorders and the incidence of fatigue and sleepiness, the evaluation of the sleep patterns and complaints of shift workers is essential and should be considered to be one of the basic strategies of industry to prevent accidents.

Robust fault diagnosis in power distribution systems based on fuzzy ARTMAP neural network-aided evidence theory

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Quantitative Analysis of Placental Vasculature by Three-Dimensional Power Doppler Ultrasonography in Normal Pregnancies From 12 to 40 Weeks of Gestation

Evaluate the distribution and variation of placental vascular indices according to gestational age and placental volume. From March to November 2007, three-dimensional (3D)-power Doppler ultrasound was performed in 295 normal pregnancies from 12 to 40 weeks of gestation. Using the same preestablished settings for all patients, power Doppler was applied to the placenta and placental Volume was obtained by the rotational technique (VOCAL(TM)). The 3D-power histogram was used to determine the placental vascular indices: vascularization index (VI), flow index (FI) and vascularization-flow index (VFI). The placental vascular indices were then plotted against gestational age and placental volume. All placental vascular indices showed constant distribution throughout gestation. A tendency for a reduction in placental vascular indices with increased placental volume was observed, but was only statistically significant when placental FI was considered (p < 0.05). All placental vascular indices estimated by 3D-power Doppler ultrasonography presented constant distribution throughout gestation, despite the increase in placental volume according to gestational age. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indexes of power and aerobic capacity obtained in cycle ergometry and treadmill running: comparisons between sedentary, runners, cyclists and triathletes

The objectives of this study were: a) to determine, in a cross-sectional manner, the effect of aerobic training on the peak oxygen uptake, the intensity at O2peak and the anaerobic threshold (AnT) during running and cycling; and b) to verify if the transference of the training effects are dependent on the analized type of exercise or physiological index. Eleven untrained males (UN), nine endurance cyclists (EC), seven endurance runners (ER), and nine triathletes (TR) were submitted, on separate days, to incremental tests until voluntary exhaustion on a mechanical braked cycle ergometer and on a treadmill. The values of O2peak (ml.kg-1.min-1) obtained in running and cycle ergometer (ER = 68.8 ± 6.3 and 62.0 ± 5.0; EC = 60.5 ± 8.0 and 67.6 ± 7.6; TR = 64.5 ± 4.8 and 61.0 ± 4.1; UN = 43.5 ± 7.0 and 36.7 ± 5.6; respectively) were higher in the group that presented specific training in the modality. The UN group presented the lower values of O2peak, regardless of the type of exercise. This same behavior was observed for the AnT (ml.kg-1.min-1) determined in running and cycle ergometer (ER = 56.8 ± 6.9 and 44.8 ± 5.7; EC = 51.2 ± 5.2 and 57.6 ± 7.1; TR = 56.5 ± 5.1 and 49.0 ± 4.8; UN = 33.2 ± 4.2 and 22.6 ± 3.7; respectively). It can be concluded that the transference of the training effects seems to be only partial, independently of the index (O2peak, IO2peak or AnT) or exercise type (running or cycling). In relation to the indices, the specificity of training seems to be less present in the O2peak than in the IO2peak and the AnT.

Transient stability indices from a hybrid approach

This paper deals with hybrid method for transient stability analysis combining time domain simulation and a direct method. Nowadays, the step-by-step simulation is the best available tool for allowing the uses of detailed models and for providing reliable results. The main limitation of this approach involves the large time of computational simulations and the absence of stability margin. On the other hand, direct methods, that demand less CPU time, did not show ample reliability and applicability yet. The best way seems to be using hybrid solutions, in which a direct method is incorporated in a time domain simulation tool. This work has studied a direct method using the transient potential and kinetic energy of the critical machine only. In this paper the critical machine is identified by a fast and efficient method, and the proposal is new for using to get stability margins from hybrid approaches. Results from systems, like 16-machine, show stability indices to dynamic security assessment. © 2001 IEEE.

Optimized allocation of sectionalizing switches and control and protection devices for reliability indices improvement in distribution systems

Reliability of power supply is related, among other factors, to the control and protection devices allocation in feeders of distribution systems. In this way, optimized allocation of sectionalizing switches and protection devices in strategic points of distribution circuits, improves the quality of power supply and the system reliability indices. In this work, it is presented a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model, with real and binary variables, for the sectionalizing switches and protection devices allocation problem, in strategic sectors, aimed at improving reliability indices, increasing the utilities billing and fulfilling exigencies of regulatory agencies for the power supply. Optimized allocation of protection devices and switches for restoration, allows that those faulted sectors of the system can be isolated and repaired, re-managing loads of the analyzed feeder into the set of neighbor feeders. Proposed solution technique is a Genetic Algorithm (GA) developed exploiting the physical characteristics of the problem. Results obtained through simulations for a real-life circuit, are presented. © 2004 IEEE.