Output risk aspects of genetically modified crop technology in South Africa

Technology involving genetic modification of crops has the potential to make a contribution to rural poverty reduction in many developing countries. Thus far, insecticide-producing 'Bt' varieties of cotton have been the main GM crops under cultivation in developing nations. Several studies have evaluated the farm-level performance of Bt varieties in comparison to conventional ones by estimating production technology, and have mostly found Bt technology to be very successful in raising output and/or reducing insecticide input. However, the production risk properties of this technology have not been studied, although they are likely to be important to risk-averse smallholders. This study investigates the output risk aspects of Bt technology using a three-year farm-level dataset on smallholder cotton production in Makhathini flats, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa. Stochastic dominance and stochastic production function estimation methods are used to examine the risk properties of the two technologies. Results indicate that Bt technology increases output risk by being most effective when crop growth conditions are good, but being less effective when conditions are less favourable. However, in spite of its risk increasing effect, the mean output performance of Bt cotton is good enough to make it preferable to conventional technology even for risk-averse smallholders.

UK construction orders and output: A comparison of government and commercially available data 1995-2001

Because of the importance and potential usefulness of construction market statistics to firms and government, consistency between different sources of data is examined with a view to building a predictive model of construction output using construction data alone. However, a comparison of Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) series shows that the correlation coefcient (used as a measure of consistency) of the DTI output and DTI orders data and the correlation coefficient of the DTI output and ONS output data are low. It is not possible to derive a predictive model of DTI output based on DTI orders data alone. The question arises whether or not an alternative independent source of data may be used to predict DTI output data. Independent data produced by Emap Glenigan (EG), based on planning applications, potentially offers such a source of information. The EG data records the value of planning applications and their planned start and finish dates. However, as this data is ex ante and is not correlated with DTI output it is not possible to use this data to describe the volume of actual construction output. Nor is it possible to use the EG planning data to predict DTI construc-tion orders data. Further consideration of the issues raised reveal that it is not practically possible to develop a consistent predictive model of construction output using construction statistics gathered at different stages in the development process.

The potential role of the intestinal gut microbiota in obesity and the metabolic syndrome

The incidence of obesity has reached alarming levels worldwide, thus increasing the risk of development of metabolic disorders (e.g. type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD) and cancer). Among the causes of obesity, diet and lifestyle play a central role. Although the treatment of obesity may appear quite straightforward, by simply re-addressing the balance between energy intake and energy expenditure, practically it has been very challenging. In the search for new therapeutic targets for treatment of obesity and related disorders, the gut microbiota and its activities have been investigated in relation to obesity. The human gut microbiota has already been shown to influence total energy intake and lipid metabolism, particularly through colonic fermentation of undigestible dietary constituents and production of short chain fatty acids (SCFA). Recent studies have highlighted the contribution of the gut microbiota to mammalian metabolism and energy harvested from the diet. A dietary modulation of the gut microbiota and its metabolic output could positively influence host metabolism and, therefore, constitute a potential coadjutant approach in the management of obesity and weight loss.

The impact of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on wind power generation and its potential predictability: a case study over the UK

Over recent years there has been an increasing deployment of renewable energy generation technologies, particularly large-scale wind farms. As wind farm deployment increases, it is vital to gain a good understanding of how the energy produced is affected by climate variations, over a wide range of time-scales, from short (hours to weeks) to long (months to decades) periods. By relating wind speed at specific sites in the UK to a large-scale climate pattern (the North Atlantic Oscillation or "NAO"), the power generated by a modelled wind turbine under three different NAO states is calculated. It was found that the wind conditions under these NAO states may yield a difference in the mean wind power output of up to 10%. A simple model is used to demonstrate that forecasts of future NAO states can potentially be used to improve month-ahead statistical forecasts of monthly-mean wind power generation. The results confirm that the NAO has a significant impact on the hourly-, daily- and monthly-mean power output distributions from the turbine with important implications for (a) the use of meteorological data (e.g. their relationship to large scale climate patterns) in wind farm site assessment and, (b) the utilisation of seasonal-to-decadal climate forecasts to estimate future wind farm power output. This suggests that further research into the links between large-scale climate variability and wind power generation is both necessary and valuable.

Determination of the in vivo prebiotic potential of a maize based wholegrain breakfast cereal: a human feeding study

Epidemiological studies have shown an inverse relationship between risk of CVD and intake of whole grain (WG)-rich food. Regular consumption of breakfast cereals can provide not only an increase in dietary WG but also improvements to cardiovascular health. Various mechanisms have been proposed, including prebiotic modulation of the colonic microbiota. In the present study, the prebiotic activity of a maize-derived WG cereal (WGM) was evaluated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled human feeding study (n 32). For a period of 21 d, healthy men and women, mean age 32 (sd 8) years and BMI 23·3 (sd 0·58) kg/m2, consumed either 48 g/d WG cereal (WGM) or 48 g placebo cereal (non-whole grain (NWG)) in a crossover fashion. Faecal samples were collected at five points during the study on days 0, 21, 42, 63 and 84 (representing at baseline, after both treatments and both wash-out periods). Faecal bacteriology was assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridisation with 16S rRNA oligonucleotide probes specific for Bacteroides spp., Bifidobacterium spp., Clostridium histolyticum/perfringens subgroup, Lactobacillus–Enterococcus subgroup and total bacteria. After 21 d consumption of WGM, mean group levels of faecal bifidobacteria increased significantly compared with the control cereal (P = 0·001). After a 3-week wash-out period, bifidobacterial levels returned to pre-intervention levels. No statistically significant changes were observed in serum lipids, glucose or measures of faecal output. In conclusion, this WG maize-enriched breakfast cereal mediated a bifidogenic modulation of the gut microbiota, indicating a possible prebiotic mode of action

Using meteorological wind data to estimate turbine generation output: a sensitivity analysis

Various studies investigating the future impacts of integrating high levels of renewable energy make use of historical meteorological (met) station data to produce estimates of future generation. Hourly means of 10m horizontal wind are extrapolated to a standard turbine hub height using the wind profile power or log law and used to simulate the hypothetical power output of a turbine at that location; repeating this procedure using many viable locations can produce a picture of future electricity generation. However, the estimate of hub height wind speed is dependent on the choice of the wind shear exponent a or the roughness length z0, and requires a number of simplifying assumptions. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this estimation on generation output using a case study of a met station in West Freugh, Scotland. The results show that the choice of wind shear exponent is a particularly sensitive parameter which can lead to significant variation of estimated hub height wind speed and hence estimated future generation potential of a region.

In vitro fermentation of potential prebiotic flours from natural sources: impact on the human colonic microbiota and metabolome

Scope: Fibers and prebiotics represent a useful dietary approach for modulating the human gut microbiome. Therefore, aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of four flours (wholegrain rye, wholegrain wheat, chickpeas and lentils 50:50, and barley milled grains), characterized by a naturally high content in dietary fibers, on the intestinal microbiota composition and metabolomic output. Methods and results: A validated three-stage continuous fermentative system simulating the human colon was used to resemble the complexity and diversity of the intestinal microbiota. Fluorescence in situ hybridization was used to evaluate the impact of the flours on the composition of the microbiota, while small-molecule metabolome was assessed by NMR analysis followed by multivariate pattern recognition techniques. HT29 cell-growth curve assay was used to evaluate the modulatory properties of the bacterial metabolites on the growth of intestinal epithelial cells. All the four flours showed positive modulations of the microbiota composition and metabolic activity. Furthermore, none of the flours influenced the growth-modulatory potential of the metabolites toward HT29 cells. Conclusion: Our findings support the utilization of the tested ingredients in the development of a variety of potentially prebiotic food products aimed at improving gastrointestinal health.

On the potential of assimilating meteorological analyses in a global climate model for the purpose of model validation

A simple four-dimensional assimilation technique, called Newtonian relaxation, has been applied to the Hamburg climate model (ECHAM), to enable comparison of model output with observations for short periods of time. The prognostic model variables vorticity, divergence, temperature, and surface pressure have been relaxed toward European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global meteorological analyses. Several experiments have been carried out, in which the values of the relaxation coefficients have been varied to find out which values are most usable for our purpose. To be able to use the method for validation of model physics or chemistry, good agreement of the model simulated mass and wind field is required. In addition, the model physics should not be disturbed too strongly by the relaxation forcing itself. Both aspects have been investigated. Good agreement with basic observed quantities, like wind, temperature, and pressure is obtained for most simulations in the extratropics. Derived variables, like precipitation and evaporation, have been compared with ECMWF forecasts and observations. Agreement for these variables is smaller than for the basic observed quantities. Nevertheless, considerable improvement is obtained relative to a control run without assimilation. Differences between tropics and extratropics are smaller than for the basic observed quantities. Results also show that precipitation and evaporation are affected by a sort of continuous spin-up which is introduced by the relaxation: the bias (ECMWF-ECHAM) is increasing with increasing relaxation forcing. In agreement with this result we found that with increasing relaxation forcing the vertical exchange of tracers by turbulent boundary layer mixing and, in a lesser extent, by convection, is reduced.

Regional changes in wind energy potential over Europe using regional climate model ensemble projections

The impact of climate change on wind power generation potentials over Europe is investigated by considering ensemble projections from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global climate model (GCM). Wind energy density and its interannual variability are estimated based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. Additionally, the possible impact of climatic changes on the energy output of a sample 2.5-MW turbine is discussed. GCM-driven RCM simulations capture the behavior and variability of current wind energy indices, even though some differences exist when compared with reanalysis-driven RCM simulations. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, projections show significant changes of energy density on annual average across Europe that are substantially stronger in seasonal terms. The emergence time of these changes varies from region to region and season to season, but some long-term trends are already statistically significant in the middle of the twenty-first century. Over northern and central Europe, the wind energy potential is projected to increase, particularly in winter and autumn. In contrast, energy potential over southern Europe may experience a decrease in all seasons except for the Aegean Sea. Changes for wind energy output follow the same patterns but are of smaller magnitude. The GCM/RCM model chains project a significant intensification of both interannual and intra-annual variability of energy density over parts of western and central Europe, thus imposing new challenges to a reliable pan-European energy supply in future decades.

Identification of potential drug targets in Salmonella Typhimurium using metabolic modelling and experimental validation

almonella enterica serovar Typhimurium is an established model organism for Gram-negative, intracellular pathogens. Owing to the rapid spread of resistance to antibiotics among this group of pathogens, new approaches to identify suitable target proteins are required. Based on the genome sequence of Salmonella Typhimurium and associated databases, a genome-scale metabolic model was constructed. Output was based on an experimental determination of the biomass of Salmonella when growing in glucose minimal medium. Linear programming was used to simulate variations in energy demand, while growing in glucose minimal medium. By grouping reactions with similar flux responses, a sub-network of 34 reactions responding to this variation was identified (the catabolic core). This network was used to identify sets of one and two reactions, that when removed from the genome-scale model interfered with energy and biomass generation. 11 such sets were found to be essential for the production of biomass precursors. Experimental investigation of 7 of these showed that knock-outs of the associated genes resulted in attenuated growth for 4 pairs of reactions, while 3 single reactions were shown to be essential for growth.

Potential oscillations in a proton exchange membrane fuel cell with a Pd-Pt/C anode

We report in this paper the occurrence of potential oscillations in a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) with a Pd-Pt/C anode, fed with H(2)/100 ppm CO, and operated at 30 degrees C. We demonstrate that the use of Pd-Pt/C anode enables the emergence of dynamic instabilities in a PEMFC. Oscillations are characterized by the presence of very high oscillation amplitude, ca. 0.8 V. which is almost twice that observed in a PEMFC with a Pt-Ru/C anode under similar conditions. The effects of the H(2)/CO flow rate and cell current density on the oscillatory dynamics were investigated and the mechanism rationalized in terms of the CO oxidation and adsorption processes. We also discuss the fundamental aspects concerning the operation of a PEMFC under oscillatory regime in terms of the benefit resulting from the higher average power output. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Optimum Location, Viability, and Potential Effects of Wind Farm Construction in Maine

Maine has the highest potential for wind energy in New England and falls within the top twenty states in the nation. It falls just behind Wisconsin and California with an estimate electrical output of 56 billion kWhs. The geological makeup of Maine’s mountains in the western part of the state, and the exposed coastline provide opportune areas to capture wind and convert it into energy. The information included in this poster will suggest the most likely areas for wind development based on a number of factors as recommended by the American Wind Energy Association.

Potential use of the veris apparent EC sensor to predict soil texture under the semi-arid conditions of central Arizona

The operational details of the apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) sensor manufactured by Veris Technologies have been extensively documented in literature reports, but the geographical distribution of these research studies indicate a strong regional concentration in the US Mid-west and Southern states. The agricultural lands of these states diverge significantly to the soil conditions and water regime of irrigated land in the US South-western states such as Arizona where there is no previous research reports of the use of this particular sensor. The objectives of the present study were to analyze the performance of this sensor under the conditions of typical soils in irrigated farms of Central Arizona. We tested under static conditions the performance of the sensor on three soils of contrasting texture. Observations were collected as time series data as soil moisture changed from saturation to permanent wilting point. Observations were repeated at the hours of lowest and highest temperatures. In addition, this study included soil penetration resistance and salinity determinations. Preliminary results indicate that soil temperature of the upper layer caused the most dynamic change in the sensor output. The ECa curves of the three soil textures tested had well defined distinctive characteristics. Final multivariate analysis is pending.

Vibrational-rotational analysis of supersingular plus quadratic A/r(4)+r(2) potential

Most work on supersingular potentials has focused on the study of the ground state. In this paper, a global analysis of the ground and excited states for the successive values of the orbital angular momentum of the supersingular plus quadratic potential is carried out, making use of centrifugal plus quadratic potential eigenfunction bases. First, the radially nodeless states are variationally analyzed for each value of the orbital angular momentum using the corresponding functions of the bases; the output includes the centrifugal and frequency parameters of the auxiliary potentials and their eigenfunction bases. In the second stage, these bases are used to construct the matrix representation of the Hamiltonian of the system, and from its diagonalization the energy eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the successive states are obtained. The systematics of the accuracy and convergence of the overall results are discussed with emphasis on the dependence on the intensity of the supersingular part of the potential and on the orbital angular momentum.

An Evaluation of Diazacon as a Potential Contraceptive in Non-Native Rose-Ringed Parakeets

Rose-ringed parakeets (Psittacula krameri) have become widely established outside their native range through accidental or deliberate release. Potential economic impacts on agriculture, conservation concerns, and mixed public opinion regarding the species have highlighted the need to develop effective but humane management options. Fertility control might provide such a solution if a safe and environmentally benign contraceptive was available. The chemical 20,25-diazacholesterol dihydrochloride (diazacon) has previously been used to reduce reproductive output in avian species through reduction of blood cholesterol and cholesterol-dependent reproductive hormones. We orally dosed captive rose-ringed parakeets with a solution of either 9 mg/kg or 18 mg/kg of diazacon for up to 10 days and found that a dose of 18 mg/kg for 10 days temporarily reduced blood cholesterol levels with no adverse side effects. We evaluated this dose level in a captive population in semi-natural conditions during the 2008 breeding season and found a significant decrease in fertility. We concluded that diazacon has potential for fertility control in this species if a suitable formulation and delivery system is developed for free-living populations.