Uma crise à lá Minsky?: uma análise da crise financeira sob a ótica de Hyman Minsky

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The Myth of the Rational Market: Nudging Each Other Away from Fool’s Gold

A flurry of media commentary and several new books are focused on the recent financial crisis and near economic collapse. A Newsweek article by Zakaria (2009), “Greed is Good (To a Point),” suggests reconsidering the role of greed in capitalism. This is also the theme in Fools Gold (Tett, 2009), a story about the way derivatives markets have evolved: showing greed at its worst. In many ways this is the core source of the current set of problems. In some sense, these perspectives are integrated in The Myth of the Rational Market by Fox (2009), who traces the thinking on the efficient market hypothesis, now understood for what it is: a myth. Both books are based in large part on interviews with major players in the crisis. There are also books drawing mainly on science, but still quite accessible to general readers, as represented in Nudge by Thaler and Sunstein (2008). Both have done extensive research on human foibles in economic choice. There is also Animal Spirits (Akerlof and Schiller, 2009), a book about what Keynesian economics is really about, a look at human forces at work. Akerlof is a Nobel prize winner in economics, who before this has pointed to the problems with presuming rationality in real markets. Schiller is one of the few economists who predicted these events.

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 656 - Dokumente zur Geschichte des Instituts für Sozialforschung (p. IX 49a-IX 55.1-5)

Max Horkheimer: Über Wissenschaft und Technologie in Israel. Begrüßungsrede für Mr. Ben Sira, gehalten am 8.1.1949; 1. Notizen zur Rede, 10 Blatt; 2. David Ben Gurion, "Science and Technology in Israel", Sonderdruck, 2 Blatt; Über die Antisemitismus-Forschungen des Instituts für Sozialforschung. Protokoll einer Sitzung der Frankfurter Gesellschaft für Christlich-Jüdische Zusammenarbeit, 16.Mai 1949. Typoskript (Kopie), 2 Blatt; Max Horkheimer: Über Arbeit und Pläne des Instituts für Sozialforschung in Frankfurt. Vortrag, gehalten 1949 in Frankfurt (Clubabend). Manuskript, 3 Blatt; Zur Begründung eines Instituts für Sozialforschung, 1922; 1. Senckenbergische Naturforschende Gesellschaft, Frankfurt: 1 Brief mit Unterschrift (Kopie) an die Universität Frankfurt, Kuratorium, Frankfurt, 22.8.1922; 2. Felix Weil und Kurt Albert Gerlach: "Denkschrift über die Begründung eines Instituts für Sozialforschung" (1922). Typoskript (Kopie), 5 Blatt; Carl Grünberg: Festrede, gehalten zur Einweihung des Instituts für Sozialforschung an der Universität Frankfurt am Main, am 22.6.1924. a) Kopie (Auszug) aus dem Abdruck der Rede in Frankfurter Universitätsreden 1924, 3 Blatt b) Sonderdruck Frankfurter Universitätsreden 1924, 16 Seiten; Darstellungen des Instituts für Sozialforschung (1925-51); 1. Gesellschaft für Sozialforschung, Frankfurt: "Institut für Sozialforschung an der Universität Frankfurt am Main". Sonderdruck (Kopie), Frankfurt, 1925, 29 Seiten; 1a. Hermann Weil: "Bericht über das Heimatfest in Waibstadt am 3. und 4. September und die feierliche Übergabge meines Mausoleums in den Schutz der Stadt Waibstadt". Sonderdruck, 1927, 7 Seiten; 1b. Felix Weil, 1 Brief mit Unterschrift (Kopie) an den Minister für Wissenschaft, Kunst und Volksbildung Berlin. Frankfurt, 1.11.1929, Typoskript, 31 Blatt; 1c. Columbia University: "Report of the President of Columbia University for 1934" (darin S.7: Erwähnung des Instituts für Sozialforschung und der Zeitschrift für Sozialforschung), Sonderdruck, New York, 1934, 80 Seiten; 2. "International Institute of Social Research: A short Description of Its History and Aims", New York 1935, Sonderdruck, 15 Seiten; 3. Briefbogen des Instituts für Sozialforschung mit den Namen des Research Staff und des Advisory Committee, 1 Blatt; 4. "International Institute of Social Research. A Report On Its History, Aims and Activities 1933-1938". Sonderdruck, New York 1939, 36 Seiten; 5. "Research Bureau For Post-War Economics and Its Cooperating Institutions. Annual Repost", Sonderdruck, New York, Mai 1939, 17 Seiten; 5a. Los Angeles University of Applied Education: "General Catalogue 1947-48" (mit Erwähnungen des Instituts für Sozialforschung bzw. von Mitarbeitern), Druck, 56 Seiten; 6. Einladung zur Eröffnung des Instituts für Sozialforschung am 14. November 1951. Sonderdruck, Frankfurt 1951, 2 Blatt; Über das Institut für Sozialforschung 1924-31. Tabellarische Zusammenstellung, 1931, Typoskript mit eigenhändigen und handschriftlichen Ergänzungen, 5 Blatt; Max Horkheimer: "Die gegenwärtige Lage der Sozialphilosophie und die Aufgaben eines Instituts für Sozialforschung". Öffentliche Antrittsvorlesung bei Übernahme des Lehrstuhls für Sozialphilosophie und der Leitung des Instituts für Sozialforschung, 24.1.1931, Kopie (Auszug) aus dem Abdruck der Rede in Frankfurter Universitätsreden 1931, 4 Blatt; "History and Program of the Institute of Social Research". Veröffentlicht unter dem Titel "International Institute of Social Research. A Short Description of Its History and Aims", New York (1934 od. 1935), Typoskript, 6 Blatt.; "A Digest of the History, Program and Needs of the International Institute of Social Research". 1934, als Typoskript vervielfältigt, 4 Blatt; Julian Gumperz: "Notes for a talk", Über Ziele und Methoden der Arbeit des Instituts für Sozialforschung, 1934. Typoskript mit handschriftlicher Korrektur, 10 Blatt; "Report of the President of Columbia University for the year ending June 30, 1934".Auszug daraus, 1934, Typoskript, 1 Blatt; Über Geschichte und Tätigkeiten des Instituts für Sozialforschung. Verschiedene Berichte, ca. 1934-1937: 1. Über Geschichte, Tätigkeiten und Ziele des Instituts, nicht vor 1934, Typoskript, 5 Blatt; 2. Bericht an den Präsidenten der Columbia University, 14.3.1936, Typoskript, 2 Blatt; 3. "Dr. Horkheimer's Paper Delivered on the Occasion of an Institute Luncheon Given to the Faculty of Social Sciences of Columbia University on January 12th, 1937". Typoskript, 13 Blatt; 4. Bericht an den Präsidenten der Columbia University. 18.3.1937, Typoskript, 3 Blatt; 5. Über Programm, Mitglieder und Tätigkeiten des Instituts, 1937, a) Typoskript, 2 Blatt, b) Entwurf, Typoskript, 4 Blatt; 6. Publikationsliste 1937, Typoskript, 1 Blatt; Über "Autorität und Familie" und die "Zeitschrift für Sozialforschung". 1937, Typoskript, französisch, mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 4 Blatt; Max Horkheimer: Über das Institut für Sozialforschung 1938: 1. Typoskript, englische Fassung, mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 38 Blatt; 2. Typoskript, deutsche Fassung mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 37 Blatt (G.S. 12, S. 132-164); 3. Julian Gumperz: 1 Brief an Herbert Marcuse, New York, 30.8.1938; 4. Teilstück aus früherer Fassung (?), Typoskript, 1 Blatt, 5. Entwurf zu 2., a) Typoskript, 1 Blatt, b) Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen und Ergänzungen, 2 Blatt;

A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face às operações swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

Keynes’s "Treatise on Money" and the role of the State

Este artículo hace una reconstrucción crítica de la visión de Keynes sobre la relación entre gasto público, tipo de interés, salarios y desempleo, tal y como se formula en su Tratado sobre el Dinero. El trabajo defiende que el enfoque de Keynes lleva a propuestas de política económica que enfatizan la necesidad de intervención estatal directa en la provisión de bienes y servicios. Esta conclusión se deriva de una interpretación circuitista de su obra.

Fighting corruption with pyramids: A Law and Economics approach to combating corruption in post-socialist countries

Corruption is, in the last two decades, considered as one of the biggest problems within the international community, which harms not only a particular state or society but the whole world. The discussion on corruption in law and economics approach is mainly run under the veil of Public choice theory and principal-agent model. Based on this approach the strong international initiatives taken by the UN, the OECD and the Council of Europe, provided various measures and tools in order to support and guide countries in their combat against corruption. These anti-corruption policies created a repression -prevention-transparency model for corruption combat. Applying this model, countries around the world adopted anti-corruption strategies as part of their legal rules. Nevertheless, the recent researches on the effects of this move show non impressive results. Critics argue that “one size does not fit all” because the institutional setting of countries around the world varies. Among the countries which experience problems of corruption, even though they follow the dominant anti-corruption trends, are transitional, post-socialist countries. To this group belong the countries which are emerging from centrally planned to an open market economy. The socialist past left traces on institutional setting, mentality of the individuals and their interrelation, particularly in the domain of public administration. If the idiosyncrasy of these countries is taken into account the suggestion in this thesis is that in public administration in post-socialist countries, instead of dominant anti-corruption scheme repression-prevention-transparency, corruption combat should be improved through the implementation of a new one, structure-conduct-performance. The implementation of this model is based on three regulatory pyramids: anti-corruption, disciplinary anti-corruption and criminal anti-corruption pyramid. This approach asks public administration itself to engage in corruption combat, leaving criminal justice system as the ultimate weapon, used only for the very harmful misdeeds.

Economics of the new member states: A post-crisis perspective

This essay addresses four major issues confronting the Central and Eastern European new members of the European Union in the decade to come. First: what to think of the financial meltdown of 2008-2009. Second, what have they learned from the tremors, having shaken the previous star performers of the EU? Third we ask if we can expect a return to ‘normalcy' as forecast by most models of financial rating agencies and international financial institutions? Fourth the question is raised what did the new members benefit from their EU membership? Some conclusions on the future of EU reforms and policies close the overview.

Global economics governance in the post-crisis world

The Great Crisis has made it clear once again that avoiding the derailment of globalization of trade and finance and the protecting the globe from fragmentation call for enhanced global cooperation and an efficient, flexible and coherent system of global governance. Three interconnected levels (national, regional, and global) comprise the system of global governance. This paper is dealing with some of the main issues of global economic governance in the post-crisis world. It reveals that the turbulence and the distress of the world of the early 21st century have deeper roots and broader sources than the crisis. Global governance therefore has to respond much broader set of challenges in comprehensive framework and long term perspective.

Global crises: Is the Keynesian recipe relevant if applied under a global governance?

Keynesian policy was quite successful in the post-war decades in Western Europe, but by the late 1960s lost its efficiency due to changes in conditions rather than its mistaken logic. The lesson from the first global crisis erupting in early 1970s and also from the subsequent several crises since then is that the increasing crisis propensity of the world economy is rooted in its inherent disequilibria stemming from deep inequalities, asymmetrical interdependencies and disintegrated socio-economic structures. In view of the failure of the prevailing methods of crisis management, particularly those undifferentiated, antisocial austerity measures corresponding to a neo-liberal monetarist concept which neglects this lesson, many economists prefer the Keynesian recipe. However, since global crises need global solution, and the spread of conspicuous consumption modify the demand constraint, its application must be adjusted to reality, and requires some global governance which may pave the way for a global oeco-social market economy.

An instrument to measure the approach to learning for assessment in economics

Economics education research studies conducted in the UK, USA and Australia to investigate the effects of learning inputs on academic performance have been dominated by the input-output model (Shanahan and Meyer, 2001). In the Student Experience of Learning framework, however, the link between learning inputs and outputs is mediated by students' learning approaches which in turn are influenced by their perceptions of the learning contexts (Evans, Kirby, & Fabrigar, 2003). Many learning inventories such as Biggs' Study Process Questionnaires and Entwistle and Ramsden' Approaches to Study Inventory have been designed to measure approaches to academic learning. However, there is a limitation to using generalised learning inventories in that they tend to aggregate different learning approaches utilised in different assessments. As a result, important relationships between learning approaches and learning outcomes that exist in specific assessment context(s) will be missed (Lizzio, Wilson, & Simons, 2002). This paper documents the construction of an assessment specific instrument to measure learning approaches in economics. The post-dictive validity of the instrument was evaluated by examining the association of learning approaches to students' perceived assessment demand in different assessment contexts.

Strolling through the (post)modern city: Modes of being a flaneur in picture books

The city and the urban condition, popular subjects of art, literature, and film, have been commonly represented as fragmented, isolating, violent, with silent crowds moving through the hustle and bustle of a noisy, polluted cityspace. Included in this diverse artistic field is children’s literature—an area of creative and critical inquiry that continues to play a central role in illuminating and shaping perceptions of the city, of city lifestyles, and of the people who traverse the urban landscape. Fiction’s textual representations of cities, its sites and sights, lifestyles and characters have drawn on traditions of realist, satirical, and fantastic writing to produce the protean urban story—utopian, dystopian, visionary, satirical—with the goal of offering an account or critique of the contemporary city and the urban condition. In writing about cities and urban life, children’s literature variously locates the child in relation to the social (urban) space. This dialogic relation between subject and social space has been at the heart of writings about/of the flâneur: a figure who experiences modes of being in the city as it transforms under the influences of modernism and postmodernism. Within this context of a changing urban ontology brought about by (post)modern styles and practices, this article examines five contemporary picture books: The Cows Are Going to Paris by David Kirby and Allen Woodman; Ooh-la-la (Max in love) by Maira Kalman; Mr Chicken Goes to Paris and Old Tom’s Holiday by Leigh Hobbs; and The Empty City by David Megarrity. I investigate the possibility of these texts reviving the act of flânerie, but in a way that enables different modes of being a flâneur, a neo-flâneur. I suggest that the neo-flâneur retains some of the characteristics of the original flâneur, but incorporates others that take account of the changes wrought by postmodernity and globalization, particularly tourism and consumption. The dual issue at the heart of the discussion is that tourism and consumption as agents of cultural globalization offer a different way of thinking about the phenomenon of flânerie. While the flâneur can be regarded as the precursor to the tourist, the discussion considers how different modes of flânerie, such as the tourist-flâneur, are an inevitable outcome of commodification of the activities that accompany strolling through the (post)modern urban space.

Econometric fellows and Nobel Laureates in economics

An academic award is method by which peers offer recognition of intellectual efforts. In this paper we take a purely descriptive look at the relationship between becoming a Fellow of the Econometric Society and receiving the Nobel Prize in economics. We discover some interesting aspects: of all 69 Nobel Prize Laureates between 1969 and 2011, only 9 of them were not also Fellows. Moreover, the proportion of future novel winners among the Fellows has been quite high throughout time and a large share of researchers who became Fellows between the 1930s and 1950s became Nobel Laureates at a later stage. On average, researchers became Fellows relatively early in their career (14.9 years after their PhD) and those who were subsequently made Nobel Laureates became Fellows earlier than other researchers. Interestingly, Harvard and MIT have been the dominant PhD granting institutions to generate Fellows and Nobel Laureates in the past.

Surgical treatment approaches and reimbursement costs of surgical site infections post hip arthroplasty in Australia : a retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND: The treatment for deep surgical site infection (SSI) following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) varies internationally and it is at present unclear which treatment approaches are used in Australia. The aim of this study is to identify current treatment approaches in Queensland, Australia, show success rates and quantify the costs of different treatments. METHODS: Data for patients undergoing primary THA and treatment for infection between January 2006 and December 2009 in Queensland hospitals were extracted from routinely used hospital databases. Records were linked with pathology information to confirm positive organisms. Diagnosis and treatment of infection was determined using ICD-10-AM and ACHI codes, respectively. Treatment costs were estimated based on AR-DRG cost accounting codes assigned to each patient hospital episode. RESULTS: A total of n=114 patients with deep surgical site infection were identified. The majority of patients (74%) were first treated with debridement, antibiotics and implant retention (DAIR), which was successful in eradicating the infection in 60.3% of patients with an average cost of $13,187. The remaining first treatments were 1-stage revision, successful in 89.7% with average costs of $27,006, and 2-stage revisions, successful in 92.9% of cases with average costs of $42,772. Multiple treatments following 'failed DAIR' cost on average $29,560, for failed 1-stage revision were $24,357, for failed 2-stage revision were $70,381 and were $23,805 for excision arthroplasty. CONCLUSIONS: As treatment costs in Australia are high primary prevention is important and the economics of competing treatment choices should be carefully considered. These currently vary greatly across international settings.

Ownership, corporate governance and IPO post-listing liquidity

This thesis investigates how ownership structure and corporate governance relate to the post-listing liquidity of IPO firms. Using a sample of 1,049 Chinese IPOs from 2001 to 2010, the results show firms with a broader shareholder base and higher ownership concentration have greater post-listing liquidity. So do firms with higher state ownership and lower institution ownership. Corporate governance is also important; post-listing liquidity is higher for firms with CEO duality, a larger and more independent board, and more frequent board meetings. The 2005 Split Share Structure Reform, which increased the proportion of tradable shares, has a positive impact on liquidity.