Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance.

A newly discovered portrait of Napoleon by Jacques-Louis David

This article establishes the authenticity of a half length portrait of Napoleon, long thought to be a copy.

The roles and competencies of HR managers in Slovenian multinational companies

Purpose – The HRM literature provides various typologies of the HR managers’ roles in organizations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how the roles and required competencies of HR managers in Slovenian multinational companies change when these companies enter the international arena. Design/methodology/approach – The authors explored the total population of 25 Slovenian multinational companies (MNCs) operating in Serbia. In these companies the authors conducted interviews with 16 expatriates working in branches in Serbia, sent questionnaires to the CEOs, and conducted a survey of 50 HR managers and interviews with 15 of them. The authors used a triangulation approach and analyzed the results by multivariate methods and content analysis. Findings – The authors found that the complexity of HR managers’ roles, and expectations of their competencies, increases with an increasing level of internationalization of companies. Orientation to people and conflict resolution are seen as elementary competencies needed in all stages of internationalization. The key competence is seen to be strategic thinking that, according to CEOs and expatriates, goes hand in hand with cultural sensitivity, openness to change and a comprehensive understanding of the international environment and business processes. Practical implications – These results can potentially be used for assessing the HRM roles and competencies in different stages of company internationalization, especially MNCs operating in the ex-communist states of Europe, and will help HR managers to support expatriates, CEOs and other employees working in branches abroad more efficiently. Originality/value – This study contributes to the review and evaluation of the quite limited research on HR managers’ roles and competencies in MNCs. It focuses on MNCs and outward internationalization in the Central and Eastern European region. It contributes to studies of the HR managers’ roles and competencies and is the first study to establish a set of roles and competencies for HR managers in Slovenian MNCs.

Dynamic portrait of the planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance - I. Systems with a more massive outer planet

We analyse the global structure of the phase space of the planar planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance in cases where the outer planet is more massive than its inner companion. Inside the resonant domain, we show the existence of two families of periodic orbits, one associated to the librational motion of resonant angle (sigma-family) and the other related to the circulatory motion of the difference in longitudes of pericentre (Delta pi-family). The well-known apsidal corotation resonances (ACR) appear as intersections between both families. A complex web of secondary resonances is also detected for low eccentricities, whose strengths and positions are dependent on the individual masses and spatial scale of the system. The construction of dynamical maps for various values of the total angular momentum shows the evolution of the families of stable motion with the eccentricities, identifying possible configurations suitable for exoplanetary systems. For low-moderate eccentricities, several different stable modes exist outside the ACR. For larger eccentricities, however, all stable solutions are associated to oscillations around the stationary solutions. Finally, we present a possible link between these stable families and the process of resonance capture, identifying the most probable routes from the secular region to the resonant domain, and discussing how the final resonant configuration may be affected by the extension of the chaotic layer around the resonance region.

Dynamic portrait of the planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance - II. Systems with a more massive inner planet

This paper presents the second part in our study of the global structure of the planar phase space of the planetary three-body problem, when both planets lie in the vicinity of a 2/1 mean-motion resonance. While Paper I was devoted to cases where the outer planet is the more massive body, the present work is devoted to the cases where the more massive body is the inner planet. As before, outside the well-known Apsidal Corotation Resonances (ACR), the phase space shows a complex picture marked by the presence of several distinct regimes of resonant and non-resonant motion, crossed by families of periodic orbits and separated by chaotic zones. When the chosen values of the integrals of motion lead to symmetric ACR, the global dynamics are generally similar to the structure presented in Paper I. However, for asymmetric ACR the resonant phase space is strikingly different and shows a galore of distinct dynamical states. This structure is shown with the help of dynamical maps constructed on two different representative planes, one centred on the unstable symmetric ACR and the other on the stable asymmetric equilibrium solution. Although the study described in the work may be applied to any mass ratio, we present a detailed analysis for mass values similar to the Jupiter-Saturn case. Results give a global view of the different dynamical states available to resonant planets with these characteristics. Some of these dynamical paths could have marked the evolution of the giant planets of our Solar system, assuming they suffered a temporary capture in the 2/1 resonance during the latest stages of the formation of our Solar system.

Portrait of the economist as a young man: Raúl Prebisch's evolving views on the business cycle and money, 1919-1949

Includes bibliography

Report of Meeting of Regional Statisticians to Consider the Problem of Respondent Burden for Statistics of the OECS Countries

Contiene la organización y debates de la reunión que tuvo por objetivo examinar la capacidad de los países de la OECO de responder a las demandas de información estadística que se les solicita.

Brief for Amici Curiae Scholars of the Constitutional Rights of Children in Support of Respondent Edith Windsor Addressing the Merits and Supporting Affirmance

This amicus brief filed by Scholars of the Constitutional Rights of Children turns the spotlight on children in same-sex families. The brief enumerates the ways Section 3 of DOMA impairs children's interests by denying federal recognition of their parents' marriages.

Portrait of Josephine Evans: 1887-1969

The genre of historical women's biography has a moderately short history, and has evolved into the twenty-first century as women's studies. Simultaneously, biography has become a multifaceted genre that keeps a close relationship between biography, history, women's studies, and cultural studies. The biography of Josephine Evans embraces the genre as a vehicle to enlighten broader historical issues, as the life of an ordinary woman and her position in an historic Colorado family is revealed. Her story contributes to the history of women's roles and rights in the late nineteenth and twentieth century as her life story is representative of the time period. This biography of Josephine Evans is an illustration of a biography written from personal letters, diaries, and recollections.