The use of indicators and evidence in governance and policy development of science, technology and innovation

This paper was first presented at the 2012 – EU SPRI Conference “Towards Transformative Governance? - Responses to mission-oriented innovation policy paradigms”, Fraunhofer ISI, June 2012, Karlsruhe

Electoral opportunism and fiscal policy before and after the EMU

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Discretionary Policy in a Monetary Union with Sovereign Debt

This paper examines the interactions between multiple national fiscal policy- makers and a single monetary policy maker in response to shocks to government debt in some or all of the countries of a monetary union. We assume that national governments respond to excess debt in an optimal manner, but that they do not have access to a commitment technology. This implies that national fi scal policy gradually reduces debt: the lack of a commitment technology precludes a random walk in steady state debt, but the need to maintain national competitiveness avoids excessively rapid debt reduction. If the central bank can commit, it adjusts its policies only slightly in response to higher debt, allowing national fiscal policy to undertake most of the adjustment. However if it cannot commit, then optimal monetary policy involves using interest rates to rapidly reduce debt, with signifi cant welfare costs. We show that in these circumstances the central bank would do better to ignore national fiscal policies in formulating its policy.

Commitment vs. Discretion in the UK: An Empirical Investigation of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regime

This paper investigates the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy in the post-ERM period in the UK. Using a simple DSGE New Keynesian model of non-cooperative monetary and fiscal policy interactions under fiscal intra-period leadership, we demonstrate that the past policy in the UK is better explained by optimal policy under discretion than under commitment. We estimate policy objectives of both policy makers. We demonstrate that fiscal policy plays an important role in identifying the monetary policy regime.

How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis assume that policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow policy to be described by various forms of optimal policy - commitment, discretion and quasi-commitment. We find that, even after allowing for Markov switching in shock variances, the inflation target and/or rule parameters, the data preferred description of policy is that the US Fed operates under discretion with a marked increase in conservatism after the 1970s. Parameter estimates are similar to those obtained under simple rules, except that the degree of habits is significantly lower and the prevalence of cost-push shocks greater. Moreover, we find that the greatest welfare gains from the ‘Great Moderation’ arose from the reduction in the variances in shocks hitting the economy, rather than increased inflation aversion. However, much of the high inflation of the 1970s could have been avoided had policy makers been able to commit, even without adopting stronger anti-inflation objectives. More recently the Fed appears to have temporarily relaxed policy following the 1987 stock market crash, and has lost, without regaining, its post-Volcker conservatism following the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Multiple Objectives in Monetary Policy: A de Facto Analysis for ‘Advanced’ Countries

A statistical methodology is developed by which realised outcomes can be used to identify, for calendar years between 1974 and 2012, when policy makers in ‘advanced’ economies have successfully pursued single objectives of different kinds, or multiple objectives. A simple criterion is then used to distinguish between multiple objectives pure and simple and multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint. The overall and individual country results which this methodology produces seem broadly plausible. Unconditional and conditional analyses of the inflation and growth associated with different types of objectives reveal that multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint are associated with roughly as good economic performance as the single objective of inflation. A proposal is then made as to how the remit of an inflation-targeting central bank could be adjusted to allow it to pursue other objectives in extremis without losing the credibility effects associated with inflation targeting.

Health Impact Assessment Policy analysis tool

The policy analysis tool provides a framework to review government and other relevant agency policy related to the proposal.

Social inequalities in health. New evidence and policy implications

Health inequalities according to people's social standing are persisting, or even growing, in modern societies. Recent decades have revealed evidence of strong variations in life expectancy, both between countries and within them. This widening of social inequalities has developed despite considerable progress in medical science and an increase in health care spending. The reasons behind this are complex, and the implications considerable.   This book provides a summary of the major achievements of a five-year European Science Foundation (ESF) Programme on 'Social Variations in Health Expectancy in Europe'. The contributors are major figures in their subjects, and combine state of the art reviews with the latest results from interdisciplinary research in epidemiology, sociology, psychology and biomedicine.   Three conceptual frameworks of life course influences, health effects of stressful environments, and macro social determinants of health, are unified, while each chapter addresses the policy implications and recommendations derived from currently available evidence. The major topics covered include the role of family in early life, social integration and health, work stress and job security, successful ways of facing adversity, and the impact of the larger environment on health. Epidemiologists, public health research and policy makers, and students of related public health and sociology courses wlll find the results of this research fascinating.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

National Alcohol Policy Ireland

The National Alcohol Policy is directed at reducing the prevalence of alcohol-related problems through an emphasis on moderation in alcohol consumption. The importance of a comprehensive alcohol policy was highlighted when Ireland endorsed the European Charter on Alcohol in December 1995 along with 48 other Member States of the WHO European Region. The alcohol-related problems are multidimensional, therefore the solutions most be multi-sectoral. This means that commitment to the National Alcohol Policy must be on the agenda of policy makers in all sectors and at all levels. An Alcohol Policy requires both environmental and individual strategies. There is strong evidence that policies which influence access to alcohol, control pricing through taxation and other public health measures, can have a positive impact on curtailing the health and social burden resulting from drinking (Edwards et al. 1994). However, a key to the effectiveness of such strategies is public support, enforcement and maintenance of the policies. In examining the rationale for a National Alcohol Policy a number of elements have been identified. Research is urgently required to identify attitudes and patterns of alcohol consumption across the population and within sub-groups of the population. Based on sound research, a sensible drinking message of Less is Better should form an educational empowerment programme with regional and local initiatives as a required and integral part of such a campaign. A health education programme in all schools should be part of the core curriculum. The availability and effectiveness of treatment services need to be established. Action to contain the availability of alcohol could be achieved by reducing the number of special exemptions for longer opening hours and controlling access to underage drinking by ID schemes nation-wide. The enforcement of drink driving legislation including random breath testing needs to be continued to reduce alcohol-related traffic accidents. All levels of the Drinks Industry should recognise that people have the right to be safeguarded from pressures to drink. Finally, a National Alcohol Policy could be co-ordinated by a wider National Substance Use Surveillance Unit.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

The Irish alcohol misuser in England: Ill served by research and policy? Some suggestions for future research opportunities.

Inequalities in the physical and psychological health of the first- and second-generation Irish subjects have been well documented. Despite the fact that the Irish alcohol misuser is subject to a number of unhelpful stereotypes, the research concerning alcohol misuse in the Irish is surprisingly sparse. What little exists indicates that Irish alcohol misusers tend to fit the profile of the "chronic alcoholic." Specifically, they tend to be older (45 years +) and to have impaired physical and psychological health. Not surprisingly this is accompanied by poor longitudinal outcomes. Furthermore, alcohol problems worsen as a result of migration (this phenomenon is not restricted to the UK). Alcohol and drug services are now frequently merged, and policy is directed towards the visible young illicit drug user. This paper argues that inadvertently Irish alcohol misusers are discriminated against as a result. Future avenues of research are outlined to provide services and policy makers with data to plan services taking full account of the needs of Irish alcohol misusers.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Hospital admission rates for alcoholic intoxication after policy changes in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland.

Background: In February, 2005, the canton of Geneva in Switzerland prohibited the off-premise sale of alcoholic beverages between 9pm and 7am, and banned their sale in gas stations and video stores. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of this policy change on hospital admission rates for alcoholic intoxication.Methods: An interrupted time series analysis of this natural experiment was performed with data on hospitalisations for acute alcoholic intoxication during the 2002-2007 period. The canton of Geneva was treated as the experimental group, while all other Swiss cantons were used as the control group.Results: In the experimental site, the policy change was found to have a significant effect on admission rates among adolescents and young adults. Depending on the age group, hospitalisation rates for alcoholic intoxication fell by an estimated 25-40% as the result of restricted alcohol availability.Conclusions: Modest restrictions on opening hours and the density of off-premise outlets were found to be of relevance for public health in the canton of Geneva. In light of this finding, policy makers should consider such action as a promising approach to alcohol prevention. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public Policy and Ageing in Northern Ireland: Identifying Levers for Change

Public Policy and Ageing in Northern Ireland: Identifying Levers for Change Judith Cross, Policy Officer with the Centre for Ageing Research Development in Ireland (CARDI)��������Introduction Identifying a broad range of key public policy initiatives as they relate to age can facilitate discussion and create new knowledge within and across government to maximise the opportunities afforded by an ageing population. This article looks at how examining the current public policy frameworks in Northern Ireland can present opportunities for those working in this field for the benefit of older people. Good policy formulation needs to be evidence-based, flexible, innovative and look beyond institutional boundaries. Bringing together architects and occupational therapists, for example, has the potential to create better and more effective ways relevant to health, housing, social services and government departments. Traditional assumptions of social policy towards older people have tended to be medically focused with an emphasis on care and dependency. This in turn has consequences for the design and delivery of services for older people. It is important that these assumptions are challenged as changes in thinking and attitudes can lead to a redefinition of ageing, resulting in policies and practices that benefit older people now and in the future. Older people, their voices and experiences, need to be central to these developments. The Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland The Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland (CARDI) (1) is a not for profit organisation developed by leaders from the ageing field across Ireland (North and South) including age sector focused researchers and academics, statutory and voluntary, and is co-chaired by Professor Robert Stout and Professor Davis Coakley. CARDI has been established to provide a mechanism for greater collaboration among age researchers, for wider dissemination of ageing research information and to advance a research agenda relevant to the needs of older people in Ireland, North and South. Operating at a strategic level and in an advisory capacity, CARDI�۪s work focuses on promoting research co-operation across sectors and disciplines and concentrates on influencing the strategic direction of research into older people and ageing in Ireland. It has been strategically positioned around the following four areas: Identifying and establishing ageing research priorities relevant to policy and practice in Ireland, North and South;Promoting greater collaboration and co-operation on ageing research in order to build an ageing research community in Ireland, North and South;Stimulating research in priority areas that can inform policy and practice relating to ageing and older people in Ireland, North and South;Communicating strategic research issues on ageing to raise the profile of ageing research in Ireland, North and South, and its role in informing policy and practice. Context of Ageing in Ireland Ireland �۪s population is ageing. One million people aged 60 and over now live on the island of Ireland. By 2031, it is expected that Northern Ireland�۪s percentage of older people will increase to 28% and the Republic of Ireland�۪s to 23%. The largest increase will be in the older old; the number aged 80+ is expected to triple by the same date. However while life expectancy has increased, it is not clear that life without disability and ill health has increased to the same extent. A growing number of older people may face the combined effects of a decline in physical and mental function, isolation and poverty. Policymakers, service providers and older people alike recognise the need to create a high quality of life for our ageing population. This challenge can be meet by addressing the problems relating to healthy ageing, reducing inequalities in later life and creating services that are shaped by, and appropriate for, older people. Devolution and Structures of Government in Northern Ireland The Agreement (2) reached in the Multi-Party Negotiations in Belfast 1998 established the Northern Ireland Assembly which has full legislative authority for all transferred matters. The majority of social and economic public policy such as; agriculture, arts, education, health, environment and planning is determined by the Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont. There are 11 Government Departments covering the main areas of responsibility with 108 elected Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLA�۪s). The powers of the Northern Ireland Assembly do not cover ��� reserved�۪ matters or ��� excepted�۪ matters . These are the responsibility of Westminster and include issues such as, tax, social security, policing, justice, defence, immigration and foreign affairs. Northern Ireland has 18 elected Members of Parliament (MP�۪s) to the House of Commons. Public Policy Context in Northern Ireland The economic, social and political consequence of an ageing population is a challenge for policy makers across government. Considering the complex and diverse causal factors that contribute to ageing in Northern Ireland, there are a number of areas of government policy at regional, national and international levels that are likely to impact in this area. International The Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing (3) and the Research Agenda on Ageing for the 21st Century (4) provide important mechanisms for furthering research into ageing. The United Kingdom has signed up to these. The Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing commits member states to a systematic review of the Plan of Action through Regional Implementation Strategies. The United Kingdom�۪s Regional Implementation Strategy covers Northern Ireland. National At National level, pension and social security are high on the agenda. The Pensions Act (5) became law in 2007 and links pensions increases with earnings as opposed to prices from 2012. Additional credits for people raising children and caring for older people to boost their pensions were introduced. Some protections are included for those who lost occupational pensions as a result of underfunded schemes being wound up before April 2005. In relation to State Pensions and benefits, this Act will bring changes to state pensions in future. The Act now places the Pension Credit element which is up-rated in line with or above earnings, on a permanent, statutory footing. Regional At regional level there are a number of age related public policy initiatives that have the potential to impact positively on the lives of older people in Northern Ireland. Some are specific to ageing such as the Ageing in an Inclusive Society (6) and others by their nature are cross-cutting such as Lifetime Opportunities: Governments Anti-Poverty Strategy for Northern Ireland (7). The main public policy framework in Northern Ireland is the Programme for Government: Building a Better Future, 2008-2011(PfG) (8) . The PfG, is the overarching high level policy framework for Northern Ireland and provides useful principles for ageing research and public policy in Northern Ireland. The PfG vision is to build a peaceful, fair and prosperous society in Northern Ireland, with respect for the rule of law. A number of Public Service Agreements (PSA) aligned to the PfG confirm key actions that will be taken to support the priorities that the Government aim to achieve over the next three years. For example objective 2 of PSA 7: Making Peoples�۪ Lives Better: Drive a programme across Government to reduce poverty and address inequality and disadvantage, refers to taking forward strategic action to promote social inclusion for older people; and to deliver a strong independent voice for older people. The Office of the First Minister and deputy First Minister (OFMDFM) have recently appointed an Interim Older People�۪s Advocate, Dame Joan Harbison to provide a focus for older peoples issues across Government. Ageing in an Inclusive Society is the cross-departmental strategy for older people in Northern Ireland and was launched in March 2005. It sets out the approach to be taken across Government to promote and support the inclusion of older people. The vision coupled with six strategic objectives form the basis of the action plans accompanying the strategy. The vision is: ���To ensure that age related policies and practices create an enabling environment, which offers everyone the opportunity to make informed choices so that they may pursue healthy, active and positive ageing.�۝ (Ageing in an Inclusive Society, Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister, 2005) Action planning and maintaining momentum across government in relation to this strategy has proved to be slower than anticipated. It is proposed to refresh this Strategy in line with Opportunity Age ��� meeting the challenges of ageing in the 21st Century (9). There are a number of policy levers elsewhere which can also be used to promote the positive aspects of an ageing society. The Investing for Health (10) and A Healthier Future:A 20 Year Vision for Health and Well-being in Northern Ireland (11), seek to ensure that the overall vision for health and wellbeing is achievable and provides a useful framework for ageing policy and research in the health area. These health initiatives have the potential to positively impact on the quality of life of older people and provide a useful framework for improving current policy and practice. In addition to public policy initiatives, the anti-discrimination frameworks in terms of employment in Northern Ireland cover age as well as a range of other grounds. Goods facilitates and services are currently excluded from the Employment Equality (age) Regulations (NI) 2006 (12). Supplementing the anti-discrimination measures, Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 (13), unique to Northern Ireland, places a statutory obligation on public authorities in fulfilling their functions to promote equality of opportunity across nine grounds, one of which is age(14). This positive duty has the potential to make a real difference to the lives of older people in Northern Ireland. Those affected by policy decisions must be consulted and their interests taken into account. This provides an opportunity for older people and their representatives to participate in public policy-making, right from the start of the process. Policy and Research Interface ���Ageing research is vital as decisions in relation to policy and practice and resource allocation will be made on the best available information�۝. (CARDI�۪s Strategic Plan 2008-2011) As outlined earlier, CARDI has been established to bridge the gap to ensure that research reaches those involved in making policy decisions. CARDI is stimulating the ageing research agenda in Ireland through a specific research fund that has a policy and practice focus. My work is presently focusing on helping to build a greater awareness of the key policy levers and providing opportunities for those within research and policy to develop closer links. The development of this shared understanding by establishing these links between researchers and policy makers is seen as the best predictor for research utilization. It is important to acknowledge and recognise that researchers and policy makers operate in different institutional, political and cultural contexts. Research however needs to ���resonate�۪ with the contextual factors in which policy makers operate. Conclusions Those working within the public policy field recognise all too often that the development of government policies and initiatives in respect of age does not guarantee that they will result in changes in actual provision of services, despite Government recommendations and commitments. The identification of public policy initiatives as they relate to age has the potential to highlight persistent and entrenched difficulties that social policy has previously failed to address. Furthermore, the identification of these difficulties can maximise the opportunities for progressing these across government. A focus on developing effective and meaningful targets to ensure measurable outcomes in public policy for older people can assist in this. Access to sound, credible and up-to-date evidence will be vital in this respect. As well as a commitment to working across departmental boundaries to effect change. Further details: If you would like to discuss this paper or for further information about CARDI please contact: Judith Cross, Policy Officer, Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland CARDI). t: +44 (0) 28 9069 0066; m: +353 (0) 867 904 171; e: judith@cardi.ie ; or visit our website at: www.cardi.ie References 1) Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland (2008) Strategic Plan 2008-2011. Belfast. CARDI 2) The Agreement: Agreement Reached in the Multi-Party Negotiations. Belfast 1998 3) Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing. http://www.un.org/ageing/ 4) UN Programme on Ageing (2007) Research Agenda on Ageing for the 21st Century: 2007 Update. New York. New York. UN Programme on Ageing and the International Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics. 5) The Pensions Act 2007 Chapter 22 6) Office of the First Minister and deputy First Minister (2005). Ageing in an Inclusive Society. Belfast. OFMDFM Central Anti-Poverty Unit. 7) Office of the First Minister and deputy First Minister (2005). Lifetime Opportunities: Government�۪s Anti-Poverty and Social Inclusion Strategy for Northern Ireland. Belfast. OFMDFM Central Anti-Poverty Unit. 8) Northern Ireland Executive (2008) Building a Better Future: Programme for Government 2008-2011. Belfast. OFMDFM Economic Policy Unit. 9) Department for Work and Pensions, (2005) Opportunity Age: Meeting the Challenges of Ageing in the 21 st Century. London. DWP. 10) Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety (DHSS&PS) (2002) Investing for Health. Belfast. DHSS&PS. 11) Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety (DHSS&PS) (2005) A Healthier Future:A 20 Year Vision for Health and Well-being in Northern Ireland Belfast. DHSS&PS. �� 12) The Employment Equality (Age) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2006 SR2006 No.261 13) The Northern Ireland Act 1998, Part VII, S75 14) The nine grounds covered under S75 of the Northern Ireland Act are: gender, religion, race, sexual orientation, those with dependents, disability, political opinion, marital status and age.

Policy Brief: Introducing Active Ageing Index

The Active Ageing Index (AAI) is a new analytical tool that aims to help policy makers in developing policies for active and healthy ageing. Its aim is to point to the untapped potential of older people for more active participation in employment, in social life and for independent living. Mobilising the potential of both older women and men is crucial to ensure prosperity for all generations in ageing societies. This policy brief introduces the Active Ageing Index to the policy makers. ��