Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

A New Method to Predict the Epidemiology of Fungal Keratitis by Monitoring the Sales Distribution of Antifungal Eye Drops in Brazil

Purpose: Fungi are a major cause of keratitis, although few medications are licensed for their treatment. The aim of this study is to observe the variation in commercialisation of antifungal eye drops, and to predict the seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil. Methods: Data from a retrospective study of antifungal eye drops sales from the only pharmaceutical ophthalmologic laboratory, authorized to dispense them in Brazil (Opthalmos) were gathered. These data were correlated with geographic and seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis in Brazil between July 2002 and June 2008. Results: A total of 26,087 antifungal eye drop units were sold, with a mean of 2.3 per patient. There was significant variation in antifungal sales during the year (p < 0.01). A linear regression model displayed a significant association between reduced relative humidity and antifungal drug sales (R-2 = 0.17, p < 0.01). Conclusions: Antifungal eye drops sales suggest that there is a seasonal distribution of fungal keratitis. A possible interpretation is that the third quarter of the year (a period when the climate is drier), when agricultural activity is more intense in Brazil, suggests a correlation with a higher incidence of fungal keratitis. A similar model could be applied to other diseases, that are managed with unique, or few, and monitorable medications to predict epidemiological aspects.

The new Soviet legislature : Committee on Defense and State Security : report of the Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives, One Hundred First Congress, second session.

"The attached report was prepared ... by Dr. Mark Lowenthal ..."--p. iv.

Export trading companies legislation : hearings before the Subcommittee on International Trade, Investment, and Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-sixth Congress, second session, on H.R. 7310 ... H.R. 7364 ... H.R. 7436 ... H.R. 7463 ... July 1 and 2, 1980.

Item 1013

Coordinated information sharing and homeland security : hearing before the Subcommittee on Technology and Procurement Policy of the Committee on Government Reform, House of Representatives, One Hundred Seventh Congress, second session, June 7, 2002.

"Serial no. 107-182."

The U.S. General Services Administration's fiscal year 2003 Capital Investment Program : hearing before the Subcommittee on Economic Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, House of Representatives, One Hundred Seventh Congress, second session, June 5, 2002.

"107-83."

Rules for the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, One Hundred Seventh Congress, first session.

"Committee print 108-A."

Conflicting laws and regulations : gridlock on the national forests : oversight hearing before the Subcommittee on Forests and Forest Health of the Committee on Resources, U.S. House of Representatives, One Hundred Seventh Congress, first session, December 4, 2001.

"Serial no. 107-76."

Political trends in Taiwan since the death of Chiang Ching-kuo : hearing before the Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, May 26, 1988.

Shipping list no.: 89-126-P.

Hope for Cambodia : preventing the return of the Khmer Rouge and aiding the refugees : hearing and markup before the Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, on H.J. Res. 602, June 30 and July 28, 1988.

Microform.

Current and future U.S. sugar policy [microform] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Cotton, Rice, and Sugar of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, July 9, 1988; Burley, ID.

"Serial no. 100-81."

Review of General Accounting Office report "Sugar program: issues related to imports of sugar-containing products"; and impact on the U.S. sugar program [microform] : hearings before the Subcommittee on Cotton, Rice, and Sugar of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, June 22, 1988, administration witnesses; June 28, 1988, industry representatives.

"Serial no. 100-79."

The political crisis in Haiti : hearings before the Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, March 8 and 23, 1988.

Bibliography: p. 174-177.

Food irradiation : hearing before the Subcommittee on Health and the Environment of the Committee on Energy and Commerce, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, first session on H.R. 956 ... June 19, 1987.

Item 1019-A, 1019-B (microfiche)

A Review of defense acquisition in France and Great Britain : report of the Subcommittee on Investigations of the Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives, One Hundred First Congress, first session.

"August 16, 1989."