Testing for volatility persistence change: The effect of the credit crisis on the Portuguese banks

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Clinical variables associated with leprosy reactions and persistence of physical impairment

Introduction Leprosy is a chronic disease that affects skin and peripheral nerves. Disease complications include reactional episodes and physical impairment. One World Health Organization (WHO) goal of leprosy programs is to decrease the number of grade 2 impairment diagnoses by 2015. This study aims to evaluate clinical factors associated with the occurrence of leprosy reactions and physical impairment in leprosy patients. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of data from medical records of patients followed in two important centers for the treatment of leprosy in Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil, from 2005 to 2011. We used the chi-square test to analyze associations between the following categorical variables: gender, age, operational classification, clinical forms, leprosy reactions, corticosteroid treatment, and physical impairment at the diagnosis and after cure. Clinical variables associated with multibacillary leprosy and/or reactional episodes and the presence of any grade of physical impairment after cure were evaluated using the logistic regression model. Results We found that men were more affected by multibacillary forms, reactional episodes, and grade 2 physical impairment at diagnosis. Leprosy reactions were detected in a total of 40% of patients and all were treated with corticosteroids. However, physical impairment was observed in 29.8% of the patients analyzed at the end of the treatment and our multivariate analysis associated a low dose and short period of corticosteroid treatment with persistence of physical impairments. Conclusions Physical impairment should receive an increased attention before and after treatment, and adequate treatment should be emphasized.

Evaluation of long term persistence of Diabetes Mellitus Type II treatment newly diagnosed patients in Lisbon and Tagus health administration region : a three year follow up study

RESUMO: Raional: A persistência à terapêutica é o tempo em qualquer antidiabético oral, desde o seu início até à descontinuação de todas as medicações ou até ao fim do período do estudo. Os objetivos deste estudo foi a análise da persistência à terapêutica no segundo e terceiro anos após início do tratamento em doentes adultos diagnosticados na região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo e determinar o efeito de determinadas variáveis na persistência a longo prazo. Métodos: Um estudo retrospetivo não interventivo foi desenhado com base nos dados a obter do SIARS (prescrições e aquisições na farmácia) e Pordata. A persistência foi quantificada como a percentagem de doentes que continuam a adquirir pelo menos um antidiabético oral ao segundo e terceiro anos após a compra da primeira receita. A associação entre a persistência e o segundo e terceiro anos com cada uma das co-variáveis foi aferido pelo teste qui-quadrado e os odd ratios foram calculados com recurso a um modelo de regressão logística. Resultados: A persistência à terapêutica obtida foi de 80% e 62% para o segundo e terceiro anos após início da terapêutica. Odd ratios para primeiro e segundo ano: número de grupos farmacoterapêuticos diferentes (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); idade (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); sexo (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); número de diferentes prescritores (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); instituição de prescrição (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relação com o médico (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) e custo médio mensal por grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusões: O valor da persistência à terapêutica no segundo ano é ligeiramente acima do que é mencionado na literatura e não existem dados para comparar os resultados do terceiro ano. Relativamente ao efeito das co-variáveis no segundo e terceiro anos após o início do tratamento, os resultados são sobreponíveis, sendo que o sexo não está associado à persistência ao terceiro ano.----------------------------------ABSTRACT: Background: Therapy persistence is the time on any antidiabetic medication, from initiation of therapy to discontinuation of all medications or the end of the study period. The aim of the study was to analyse the therapy persistence in the second and third years after treatment initiation in newly diagnosed adult patients in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region and to determine the effect of several co-variables in the long term persistence. Methods: A retrospective non-interventional study based on SIARS data (drug prescriptions and acquisitions) and Pordata was designed. Persistence was quantified as the percentage of patients that continued to purchase at least one type of antidiabetic at year 2 and 3 after the date of first prescription acquisition. Association between persistence at second and third years with each of the other co-variables were verified by using the Chi-Square test and odds ratio were calculated using a regression logistic model. Results: Therapy persistence obtained was 80% and 62% for the second and third years after treatment initiation. Odd ratios for second and third years: number of different pharmacotherapeutic groups (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); age (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); gender (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); number of different prescribers (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); institution of prescription (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relationship with the physician (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) and average cost per month and per pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusions: Second year therapy persistence value is slightly above of what is referenced in literature and no data was found to compare the third year value. Regarding the effect of the co-variables analysed at second and third years after treatment initiation, the results were overlapping with gender being not associated with persistence at the third year.

Persistence of the embryonic lateral marginal vein: report of two cases

PURPOSE: Congenital venous malformations of the lower limbs represent a particular challenge for the vascular surgeon. Persistence of fetal veins is a rare malformation, and the most common is the persistence of the lateral marginal vein usually observed in patients with Klippel-Trenaunnay Syndrome. The persistence of this embryonic vein as an isolated venous malformation without the other characteristics of the Klippel-Trenaunnay Syndrome has not yet been reported. This paper describes two cases. METHODS: Two patients, a 17-year-old male patient and a 16-year-old female, have had since their birth a large venous trunk in the lateral aspect of the right leg and thigh. The limbs underwent duplex scanning and phlebography. The surgical removal of the lateral marginal vein was performed. RESULTS: Surgical treatment resulted in very good functional and aesthetic results. Follow-up at 26 months showed no evidence of varicose vein recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: To achieve good results, surgical intervention may be indicated in cases of orthopedic deformity, hemorrhage, symptomatic, and unaesthetic lesions.

Leverage instability and persistence: Evidence from the United States and Europe

We find that leverage behavior both in level and time-series variation is very similar between the United States and Europe throughout the 1990-2013 period. Leverage regimes are simultaneously unstable and persistent for both regions. We define instability as the extent to which firms largely deviate from their long-term leverage mean, while persistence as the extent to which today’s leverage influences its future levels. We then show that this simultaneous evidence imply a mean-reversion behavior of leverage and discuss some of its implications for future research on this field.

The persistence of ant-following birds in small amazonian forest fragments

SUMMARYMist-net captures of army ant-following bird were monitored during the isolation of central Amazonian forest fragments of 1 ha (n = 5), 10 ha (n = 4) and 100 ha (n = 1). Post-isolation captures of the three obligate ant-following birds Dendrocinela merula, Pithys albifrons, and Gymnopithys rufigula decreased significantly in all fragments. post-isolation captures of four facultative ant-following species were not significantly different in forest fragments of 1 ha and 10 ha, although two species decreased significantly in the 100 ha fragment. Experimental introductions of obligate species into small forest fragments in the absence and presence of introduced Eciton burchelli army ant colonies resulted in significantly greater recaptures of introduced birds when active army ant colonies were present. Of the 105 birds introduced, 58 ' 55%) crossed 100-320 m od dedorested area an were recaptured in continuous forest.

Vitamina D y homeostasis del calcio extra e intracelular

La vitamina D es uno de los principales reguladores de la homeostasis del calcio extracelular. El intestino es un importante "blanco" de acción de la vitamina desencadenándose allí un aumento de la absorción del catión que permite mantener la calcemia en los valores adecuados. El presente proyecto esta dirigido a conocer el papel del glutatión intestinal y de las oxidorreductasas del ciclo de Krebs durante ese proceso de incremento del transporte de calcio estimulado por la vitamina D. Para ello se estudiarán la absorción intestinal de Ca, la captación de Ca en vesículas de membrana basolateral del enterocito y actividades de enzimas relacionadas a la homeostasis del Ca (Ca-ATPasa, fostotasa alcalina) en animales raquíticos y tratados con vitamina D. Se usará DL-butionina-S, R-sulfoximina para disminuir el contenido intestinal de glutatión. Se emplearán metabolitos derivados de la vitamina D "in vivo" e "in vitro" e inhibidores de mecanismos de señales hormonales para dilucidar las vías usadas por la vitamina D para incrementar las actividades de la oxidoreductasas ligadas a NAD del ciclo de Krebs. La relación de la vitamina D con la homeostasis intracelular de CA se estudiará en el sistema visual del pollo desde retina (target de vitamina D) a corteza visual. Para ello se determinará la distribución de proteínas involucradas en el manejo del Ca intracelular (Ca-ATPasa de membrana plasmática, calbindina D28k y receptor de vitamina D o VDR) como los niveles de ARNm de las mismas en los diferentes niveles de organización del sistema visual.

Estudio de los mecanismos moleculares involucrados en la inmunosupresión observada durante la infección con Trypanosoma cruzi: Rol de la vía PD-1/PD1-L y E3 ubiquitina ligasas. Molecular mechanismns involved in the immunosupression during Tryapanosoma cruzi infection. Role of PD1-PD1-L pathway and E3 ubiquitin ligases.

Trypanosoma cruzi es el agente causal de la enfermedad de Chagas, un problema de salud importante en América Latina, así como también en América Central, ya que causa infección crónica afectando a millones de personas [1]. Durante esta enfermedad se han descripto varias alteraciones de la respuesta inmune, entre ellas una severa inmunosupresión durante la etapa aguda de la infección, tanto en humanos como en ratones. Células T provenientes de ratones infectados activadas in vitro, muestran reducción en la respuesta proliferativa a mitógenos, característica de un estado de inmunosupresión [2-4]. La falla del sistema inmune durante estadios tempranos de la infección probablemente colabore con la diseminación y el establecimiento del parásito. Un gran número de estudios se han focalizado en la identificación de mecanismos moleculares responsables del fenómeno de inmunosupresión, entre los mecanismos citados se ha demostrado presencia de células supresoras [5-9], factores inmunosupresores presentes en el parásito [2, 3, 10-13], producción excesiva de óxido nítrico [14], disminuida producción de IL-2 y reducida expresión del receptor de IL2 en células de bazo de animales infectados [9, 15-17]. Muchos de estos mecanismos han sido exhaustivamente investigados, sin embargo no está del todo claro si existen mecanismos adicionales involucrados en la inmunosupresión de la célula T. Adicionalmente, en los últimos años nuevas moléculas que median la regulación negativa de la célula T, entre las cuales están PD-1/PD1-L [18], arginasa [19] y E3 ubiquitina ligasas [20-22], han sido reportadas durante inmunosupresión en diversas infecciones. Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas’ disease, is parasite causing chronic infections in human and other mammalian species. There is an important immunosupresion during the acute phase of the infection that contribute to the dissemination and installation of the parasite. Several studies have been focused on identifying the mechanisms involved in the immunosupresion; however it is not clear if there are additional mechanisms implicated. In addition, during the last years new molecules involved in the negative T cell regulation such as PD-1/PD1-L pathway and E3 ubiquitin ligases (E3-Ub-Lig) have been reported. It has been demonstrated, that E3-Ub-Lig control the amount and localization of intracellular signal mediators, limiting T cell activation. Moreover, these mechanisms mediate the immunosupresion observed during several infections leading to the persistence of the pathogen in the host. In this project the role of E3-Ub-Lig on the T cell immunosupresion and hipo-response mechanisms observed during T. cruzi infection will be studied. On the other hand, it has been reported that some pathogens release proteins with E3-Ub-Lig activity modifying the ubiquitination process to promote their survival and replication in the host. Recently, a protein with E3-Ub-Lig activity was identified in T. cruzi, however its target molecule has not been discovered yet. Therefore, one of the aims of this project consists on studying different potential target molecules for this novel E3-Ub-Lig. In addition, during the last years, important progress has been done about the biological rol of PD-1/PD1-L pathway on the regulation of the immune response in several infections. However, it is not well known how PD-1/PD1-L pathway transduces signals at intracelular level to block T cell response. Because of this, it is interesting to study if there is any relation between the PD-1/PD1-L pathway and E3-Ub-Lig on the mechanism of T cell immunosupression during T. cruzi infection.

Disfunção miocárdica e alterações no trânsito de cálcio intracelular em ratos obesos

FUNDAMENTO: Vários mecanismos têm sido propostos contribuir para a disfunção cardíaca em modelos de obesidade, tais como alterações nas proteínas do trânsito de cálcio (Ca+2) e nos receptores beta-adrenérgicos. Todavia, o papel desses fatores no desenvolvimento da disfunção miocárdica induzida pela obesidade ainda não está claro. OBJETIVO: Este estudo pretende investigar se a obesidade induzida por um ciclo de dieta hipercalóricas resulta em disfunção cardíaca. Além disso, foi avaliado se essa alteração funcional em ratos obesos está relacionada com o prejuízo do trânsito de Ca+2 e do sistema beta-adrenérgico. MÉTODOS: Ratos Wistar machos, 30 dias de idade, foram alimentados com ração padrão (C) e um ciclo de cinco dietas hipercalóricas (Ob) por 15 semanas. A obesidade foi definida pelo aumento da porcentagem de gordura corporal dos ratos. A função cardíaca foi avaliada mediante análise isolada do músculo papilar do ventrículo esquerdo em condições basais e após manobras inotrópicas e lusitrópicas. RESULTADOS: Em comparação com o grupo controle, os ratos obesos apresentaram aumento da gordura corporal e intolerância a glicose. Os músculos dos ratos obesos desenvolveram valores basais semelhantes; entretanto, as respostas miocárdicas ao potencial pós-pausa e aumento de Ca+2 extracelular foram comprometidas. Não houve alterações na função cardíaca entre os grupos após a estimulação beta-adrenérgica. CONCLUSÃO: A obesidade promove disfunção cardíaca relacionada com alterações no trânsito de Ca+2 intracelular. Esse prejuízo funcional é provavelmente ocasionado pela redução da atividade da bomba de Ca+2 do retículo sarcoplasmático (SERCA2a) via Ca+2 calmodulina-quinase.

Does persistence of social exclusion exist in Spain?

The aim of this paper is to analyze the causes leading to social exclusion dynamics. In particular, we wish to understand why any individual experiencing social exclusion today is much more likely to experience it again. In fact, there are two distinct processes that may generate a persistence of social exclusion: heterogeneity (individuals are heterogeneous with respect to some observed and/or unobserved adverse characteristics that are relevant for the chance of experiencing social exclusion and persistence over time) and true state of dependence (experiencing social exclusion in a specific time period, in itself, increases the probability of undergoing social exclusion in subsequent periods). Distinguishing between the two processes is crucial since the policy implications are very different.

Phenotypic heterogeneity of antigen-specific CD4 cells under different conditions of antigen persistence and antigen load

RESUME Nous n'avons pas de connaissance précise des facteurs à l'origine de l'hétérogénéité phénotypique des cellules T CD4 mémoires. Une troisième population phénotypique des cellules T CD4 mémoires, caractérisée par les marqueurs CD45RA+CCR7- a été identifiée dans cette étude. Cette population présente un état de différentiation avancée, comme en témoigne son histoire de réplication, ainsi que sa capacité de prolifération homéostatique. Les réponses des cellules T CD4 mémoires à différentes conditions de persistance et charge antigénique ont trois patterns phénotypiques différents, caractérisés par les marqueurs CD45RA et CCR7. La réponse CD4 mono -phénotypique CD45RA-CCR7+ ou CD45RA- CCR7- est associée à des conditions d'élimination de l'antigène (telle la réponse CD4 tétanos spécifique) ou à des conditions de persistance antigénique et de virémie élevée (telle la réponse HIV chronique ou la primo-infection CMV) respectivement. D'autre part, les réponses T CD4 multi -phénotypiques CD45RA-CCR7+ sont associées à des conditions d'exposition antigénique prolongée et de faible virémie (telles les infections CMV, EBV et HSV ou les infections HIV chez les long term non progressons). La réponse mono -phénotypique CD45RA- CCR7+ est propre aux cellules T CD4 secrétant de IL2, définies également comme centrales mémoires, la réponse CD45RA- CCR7- aux cellules T CD4 secrétant de l'IFNγ et finalement la réponse mufti-phénotypique aux cellules T CD4 secrétant à la fois de l'IL2 et de l' IFNγ. En conclusion, ces résultats témoignent d'une régulation de l'hétérogénéité phénotypique par l'exposition et la charge antigénique. ABSTRACT The factors responsible for the phenotypic heterogeneity of memory CD4 T cells are unclear. In the present study, we have identified a third population of memory CD4 T cells characterized as CD45RA+CCRT that, based on its replication history and the homeostatic proliferative capacity, was at an advanced stage of differentiation. Three different phenotypic patterns of memory CD4 T cell responses were delineated under different conditions of antigen (Ag) persistence and load using CD45RA and CCR7 as markers of memory T cells. Mono-phenotypic CD45RA'CCR7+ or CD45RA'CCR7' CD4 T cell responses were associated with conditions of Ag clearance (tetanus toxoid-specific CD4 T cell response) or Ag persistence and high load (chronic HIV-1 and primary CMV infections), respectively. Multi-phenotypic CD45RA CCR7+, CD45RA'CCRT and CD45RA+CCRT CD4 T cell responses were associated with protracted Ag exposure and low load (chronic CMV, EBV and HSV infections and HIV-1 infection in long-term nonprogressors). The mono-phenotypic CD45RA'CCR7+ response was typical of central memory (TCM) IL-2-secreting CD4 T cells, the mono-phenotypic CD45RA CCRT response of effector memory (TEM) IFN-γ -secreting CD4 T cells and the multi-phenotypic response of both IL-2- and IFN-γ -secreting cells. The present results indicate that the heterogeneity of different Ag-specific CD4 T cell responses is regulated by Ag exposure and Ag load.

Deconstructing Shocks and Persistence in OECD Real Exchange Rates

This paper analyzes the persistence of shocks that affect the real exchange rates for a panel of seventeen OECD developed countries during the post-Bretton Woods era. The adoption of a panel data framework allows us to distinguish two different sources of shocks, i.e. the idiosyncratic and the common shocks, each of which may have di¤erent persistence patterns on the real exchange rates. We first investigate the stochastic properties of the panel data set using panel stationarity tests that simultaneously consider both the presence of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks that have not received much attention in previous persistence analyses. Empirical results indicate that real exchange rates are non-stationary when the analysis does not account for structural breaks, although this conclusion is reversed when they are modeled. Consequently, misspecification errors due to the non-consideration of structural breaks leads to upward biased shocks' persistence measures. The persistence measures for the idiosyncratic and common shocks have been estimated in this paper always turn out to be less than one year.

Shocks, Monetary Policy and Institutions: Explaining Unemployment Persistence in Persistence in “Europe” and the United States

This paper examines the rise in European unemployment since the 1970s by introducing endogenous growth into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and unemployment. We subject the model to an uncorrelated cost push shock, in order to mimic a scenario akin to the one faced by central banks at the end of the 1970s. Monetary policy implements a disinfl ation by following an interest feedback rule calibrated to an estimate of a Bundesbank reaction function. 40 quarters after the shock has vanished, unemployment is still about 1.8 percentage points above its steady state. Our model also broadly reproduces cross country differences in unemployment by drawing on cross country differences in the size of cost push shock and the associated disinfl ation, the monetary policy reaction function and the wage setting structure.

Two alternate mechanisms contribute to the persistence of interdependent lineages in Pogonomyrmex harvester ants.

Some populations of Pogonomyrmex harvester ants comprise pairs of highly differentiated lineages with queens mating at random with several males of their own and of the alternate lineage. These queens produce two types of diploid offspring, those fertilized by males of the queens' lineage which develop into new queens and those fertilized by males of the other lineage which mostly develop into functionally sterile workers. This unusual mode of genetic caste determination has been found in 26 populations and a total of four lineage pairs (F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2), H(1)-H(2) and J(1)-J(2)) have been described in these populations. Despite the fact that a few interlineage queens are produced, previous studies revealed that there is a complete lack of genetic introgression between lineages. Here we quantify the proportion of interlineage queens produced in each of the four lineage pairs and determine the fate of these queens. In the F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2) and H(1)-H(2) lineage pairs, interlineage queens were produced by a minority of colonies. These colonies exclusively produced interlineage queens and workers, suggesting that interlineage eggs can develop into queens in these three pairs of lineages in the absence of competition with pure-lineage brood. An analysis of three key stages of the colony life cycle revealed that colonies headed by interlineage queens failed to grow sufficiently to produce reproductive individuals. In laboratory comparisons, interlineage queens produced fewer viable eggs, with the effect that they raised fewer workers and lost more weight per worker produced than pure-lineage queens. In the J(1)-J(2) lineage pair, we did not find a single interlineage queen, raising the possibility that interlineage eggs have completely lost the ability to develop into queens in this lineage pair. Hence, two distinct mechanisms seem to account for the complete lack of between-lineage gene flow in the F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2), H(1)-H(2) and J(1)-J(2) lineage pairs.

Heterogeneous dynamics, aggregation and the persistence of economic shocks

It has been recently emphasized that, if individuals have heterogeneous dynamics, estimates of shock persistence based on aggregate data are significatively higher than those derived from its disaggregate counterpart. However, a careful examination of the implications of this statement on the various tools routinely employed to measure persistence is missing in the literature. This paper formally examines this issue. We consider a disaggregate linear model with heterogeneous dynamics and compare the values of several measures of persistence across aggregation levels. Interestingly, we show that the average persistence of aggregate shocks, as measured by the impulse response function (IRF) of the aggregate model or by the average of the individual IRFs, is identical on all horizons. This result remains true even in situations where the units are (short-memory) stationary but the aggregate process is long-memory or even nonstationary. In contrast, other popular persistence measures, such as the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or the largest autoregressive root, tend to be higher the higher the aggregation level. We argue, however, that this should be seen more as an undesirable property of these measures than as evidence of different average persistence across aggregation levels. The results are illustrated in an application using U.S. inflation data.