Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

The unequal distribution of road trauma in China : understanding risk factors to improve public health

The World Health Organization identifies road trauma as a major public health issue in every country; most notably among low-to-middle income countries. More than 90% of all road fatalities occur in these countries, although they have only 48% of all registered vehicles [1]. Unprecedented focus has been placed on reducing the global road trauma burden through the United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020). China is rapidly transitioning from a nation of bicycle riders and pedestrians to one where car ownership and use is increasing. This transition presents important public health, mobility, and safety challenges. Rapid motorisation has resulted in an increased road trauma burden, shouldered disproportionately among the population. Vulnerable road users (bicyclists, pedestrians, and motorcyclists) are of particular concern, representing 70% of all road-related fatalities [1]. Furthermore, those at greatest risk of sustaining a crash-related disability are: male, older, less educated, and earning a lower income [2] and residing in urban areas [3], with higher fatality rates in north-western poorer provinces [3]. Speeding is a key factor in road crashes in China [1, 4] and is one of two risk factors targeted in the Bloomberg Philanthropies-funded Global Road Safety Program operating in two Chinese cities over five year [5] to which the first author has provided expert advice. However, little evidence exists to help understand the factors underpinning speeding behaviour. Previous research conducted by the authors in Beijing and Hangzhou explored personal, social, and legal factors relating to speeding to assist in better understanding the motivations for non-compliance with speed limits. Qualitative and quantitative research findings indicated that speeding is relatively common, including self-reported travel speeds of greater than 30 km/hour above posted speed limits [6], and that the road safety laws and enforcement practices may, in some circumstances, contribute to this [7]. Normative factors were also evident; the role of friends, family members and driving instructors were influential. Additionally, using social networks to attempt to avoid detection and penalty was reported, thereby potentially reinforcing community perceptions that speeding is acceptable [8, 9]. The authors established strong collaborative links with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Zhejiang Police College to conduct this research. The first author has worked in both institutions for extended time periods and recognises that research must include an understanding of culturally-relevant issues if road safety is to improve in China. Future collaborations to assist in enhancing our understanding of such issues are welcomed. References [1] World Health Organization. (2009). Global status report on road safety: Time for action; Geneva. [2] Chen, H., Du, W., & Li, N. (2013). The socioeconomic inequality in traffic-related disability among Chinese adults: the application of concentration index. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 55(101-106). [3] Wang, S. Y., Li, Y. H., Chi, G. B., Xiao, S. Y., Ozanne-Smith, J., Stevenson, M., & Phillips, M. (2008). Injury-related fatalities in China: an under-recognised public-health problem. The Lancet (British edition), 372(9651), 1765-1773. [4] He, J., King, M. J., Watson, B., Rakotonirainy, A., & Fleiter, J. J. (2013). Speed enforcement in China: National, provincial and city initiatives and their success. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 50, 282-288. [5] Bhalla, K., Li, Q., Duan, L., Wang, Y., Bishai, D., & Hyder, A. A. (2013). The prevalence of speeding and drink driving in two cities in China: a mid project evaluation of ongoing road safety interventions. Injury, 44, 49-56. doi:10.1016/S0020-1383(13)70213-4. [6] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., & Lennon, A. (2013). Awareness of risky behaviour among Chinese drivers. Peer-reviewed paper presented at 23rd Canadian Multidisciplinary Road Safety Conference, Montréal, Québec. [7] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2009). Speeding in Australia and China: A comparison of the influence of legal sanctions and enforcement practices on car drivers. Peer-reviewd paper presented at Australasian Road Safety Research Policing Education Conference, Sydney. [8] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2011). Social influences on drivers in China. Journal of the Australasian College of Road Safety, 22(2), 29-36. [9] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Guan, M. Q., Ding, J. Y., & Xu, C. (2013). Characteristics of Chinese Drivers Attending a Mandatory Training Course Following Licence Suspension. Peer-reviewed paper presented at Road Safety on Four Continents, Beijing, China.

可重构装配系统开放式组织结构的研究

为了克服传统装配线的不足,在基于功能对象的产品族建模基础上,提出了主干线和装配模块相结合的可重构装配系统开放式组织结构。这种分形相似的组织结构具有能力柔性、鲁棒性、功能扩展能力等特点,并能通过模块的局部调整快速响应市场的需求。利用网络法,针对鲁棒性和增容性问题,提出了相应的重构优化算法。

Working across boundaries to improve health outcomes: a case study of a housing support and outreach service for homeless people living with HIV

This paper reports the findings of an evaluation of the ‘Housing Support, Outreach and Referral’ service developed to support people living with HIV who were homeless or at risk of homelessness. The service was set up as part of the Supporting People Health Pilot programme established to demonstrate the policy links between housing support services and health and social care services by encouraging the development of integrated services. The paper considers the role of housing support in improving people's health, and considers the challenges of working across housing, health and social care boundaries. The evaluation of the health pilot employed two main sources of data collection: quarterly project evaluation reports, which collected process data as well as reporting progress against aims and objectives, and semi-structured interviews with professionals from all key stakeholder groups and agencies, and with people who used services. Over the course of 15 months, 56 referrals were received of which 27 were accepted. Fifteen people received tenancy support of whom 12 were helped to access temporary accommodation. At the end of the 15 months, all of the tenancies had been maintained. In addition, 18 people registered with a general practitioner and 13 registered with an HIV clinic. Interviews with professionals emphasised the importance of the local joint working context, the involvement of the voluntary sector and the role of the support workers as factors that accounted for these outcomes. Those using services placed most emphasis on the flexibility of the support worker role. Importantly, interviews with professionals and those using services suggest that the role of support worker incorporates two dimensions – those of networker/navigator as well as advocate – and that both dimensions are important in determining the effectiveness of the service.

Investigar com crianças na formação inicial em educação de infância

Contributos de diferentes áreas disciplinares têm vindo a questionar as imagens que construímos histórica e socialmente de criança e infância, não sendo a educação de infância alheia a essa construção. A imagem da criança competente, reafirmada e fortalecida na sua dimensão social, desafia as pedagogias da infância a constituírem-se com a participação das próprias crianças. Este desafio questiona o conhecimento, as crenças dos profissionais, o modo de se pensarem enquanto educadores de infância e, sobretudo, exige uma atitude investigativa que sustente uma prática inclusiva de crianças e infâncias diferentes. Este trabalho partiu da possibilidade do educador-investigador-com crianças para o desenvolvimento de uma experiência na formação inicial de educadores de infância. Assumindo um referencial possível para o desenvolvimento de pedagogias participadas pelas crianças, inspirado em diferentes abordagens de investigação com crianças, foi lançado aos alunos no estágio pedagógico supervisionado e aos seus educadores cooperantes um desafio de investigação-acção-formação. Tendo como referência em investigação o “paradigma do pensamento do professor” constituiu-se um corpus de análise de abordagem qualitativa a partir de um inquérito para identificação de concepções prévias dos alunos, da documentação do processo de investigação-acção-formação presente nos portefólios dos alunos e da avaliação do projecto pelos participantes (alunos e educadoras cooperantes) com base numa entrevista. A partir do processo analítico e da sua interpretação discutem-se potencialidades e limitações quanto à possibilidade do educador-investigador-com-crianças.

K'cidade : um modo de viver a intervenção comunitária

Relatório de estágio de mestrado, Ciências da Educação (Formação de Adultos), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Educação, 2011

Prática de ensino supervisionado no 1.º e 2.º ciclo do ensino básico: o jogo e o desenvolvimento da consciência linguística

Relatório de Estágio apresentado à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para obtenção de grau de mestre em Ensino do 1.º e 2.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

Environmental Decision Support: a Multi-Agent Approach

The environmental management domain is vast and encompasses many identifiable activities: impact assessment, planning, project evaluation, etc. In particular, this paper focusses on the modelling of the project evaluation activity. The environmental decision support system under development aims to provide assistance to project developers in the selection of adequate locations, guaranteeing the compliance with the applicable regulations and the existing development plans as well as satisfying the specified project requirements. The inherent multidisciplinarity features of this activity lead to the adoption of the Multi-Agent paradigm, and, in particular, to the modelling of the involved agencies as a community of cooperative autonomous agents, where each agency contributes with its share of problem solving to the final system’s recommendation. To achieve this behaviour the many conclusions of the individual agencies have to be justifiably accommodated: not only they may differ, but can be interdependent, complementary, irreconcilable, or simply, independent. We propose different solutions (involving both local and global consistency) to support the adequate merge of the distinct perspectives that inevitably arise during this type of decision making.

Estágio profissional na administração local

Relatório de Estágio apresentado ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientador: Professor Coordenador Rodrigo Mário Oliveira Carvalho

Case Management in der ambulanten gerontopsychiatrischen Versorgung

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird ein am Strengths-Modell orientiertes Case Management-Projekt zur Prozess- und Ergebnisoptimierung der bereits bestehenden ambulanten gerontopsychiatrischen Versorgungsstruktur untersucht. Dazu arbeitete eine Krankenpflegerin mit psychiatrischer Fachausbildung in einer Berliner Sozialstation auf Basis einer professionellen Beziehung für 4-6 Wochen bei Klientinnen mit gerontopsychiatrischen Problemlagen, erstellte ein Assessment, leistete notwendige Unterstützung zunächst selbst, vermittelte gestützt auf die eigenen Erfahrungen weiterführende Dienste, leitete diese Dienste an, zog sich dann aus dem direkten Kontakt mit den Klientinnen zurück und blieb beratend für die weiterführenden Dienste verfügbar. Zur Untersuchung des Projekts wurden qualitative und quantitative Verfahren eingesetzt. Zur Beschreibung der Inhalte wurden die für jede Klientin verfasste Dokumentation und die Ergebnisse von grob strukturierten Interviews mit der Case Managerin, angelehnt an eine reduzierte Form der Methode Grounded Theory, in einem iterativen Prozess analysiert. In einem zweiten Schritt wurde dann untersucht, inwieweit die einzelnen Arbeitsinhalte des Case Managements die sozial-räumlichdingliche Umweltanpassung und Proaktivität der Klientinnen unterstützten. Die Wirkungen des Projektes auf Kognition, Aktivitäten des täglichen Lebens (ADL), Instrumentelle Aktivitäten des täglichen Lebens (IADL), Stimmung sowie soziales und störendes Verhalten wurden mittels eines standardisierten Fragebogens mit einem quasi-experimentellen prospektiven Untersuchungsdesign analysiert. Zur Analyse der subjektiven Wirkung des Projektes auf Angehörige wurden in den Ergebnissen von grob strukturierten Interviews mittels eines iterativen Prozesses Themen identifiziert. Die Klientinnen (n=11) erhielten durchschnittlich 23 Stunden Case Management. Neben den typischen Case Management-Aufgaben führte die Case Managerin, basierend auf den Gewohnheiten, Interessen und Selbsteinschätzungen der Klientinnen, therapeutische und pflegerische Maßnahmen durch und unterstützte dabei die sozial-dinglichräumliche Umweltanpassung und Proaktivität der Klientinnen. Zusätzlich wurden Hauspflegerinnen von der Case Managerin individuell in der Wohnung von Klientinnen hinsichtlich der Kommunikation mit und Unterstützung der Proaktivität von Klientinnen angeleitet. Die Hauspflegerinnen führten die von der Case Managerin eingeleiteten Maßnahmen erfolgreich fort. Bei den Klientinnen zeigten sich signifikante Verbesserungen in Gedächtnis, Stimmung, IADL-Funktionen und Sozialverhalten, aber nicht in ADL-Funktionen und störendem Verhalten. Diese Verbesserungen wurden subjektiv von den Angehörigen (n=7) bestätigt. Zusätzlich empfanden Angehörige eine zeitliche aber keine psychische Entlastung. Mit diesem Projekt wurde gezeigt, dass ein zeitlich begrenztes klientenzentriertes Case Management kognitive, soziale und emotionale Funktionen von gerontopsychiatrisch Erkrankten verbessert, Angehörige zeitlich entlastet und dass Hauspflegerinnen bei entsprechender Anleitung die vom Case Management eingeleiteten Maßnahmen fortführen können. In Folgestudien mit größerem Umfang sollten diese Ergebnisse überprüft werden um dann zu entscheiden, ob dieser Ansatz geeignet ist, die ambulante gerontopsychiatrische Versorgung gemeindenah zu verbessern.

Plan exportador piña perolera

Teniendo en cuenta las características del mercado europeo en el cual se va a incursionar, se desarrolló un plan exportador donde el producto a comercializar es la piña perolera, una fruta que se cultiva de manera óptima dentro del territorio colombiano teniendo como departamento Santander el cual concentra el 100% de su producción al cultivo y cosecha de esta fruta. Como primera fase para la elaboración de este trabajo, se realizó el estudio y la recopilación de información de la parte técnica de la piña perolera. La segunda fase consta del estudio de la piña en el mundo y su posicionamiento. La fase tres se basa en el estudio de mercados para Alemania, Bélgica y Holanda, encontrando como país objetivo este último. La cuarta fase, es el estudio logístico para determinar los tiempos de producción, empaque y transporte de la fruta. La quinta y última fase es el análisis financiero para evidenciar la viabilidad del proyecto y su finalidad. El alcance que tiene este plan exportador es una de las principales conclusiones que arroja el proyecto, de igual manera para su debida consecución es necesario tener estrategias claras para que los planes propuestos tengan la funcionalidad y finalidad deseada.

Agricultura urbana en Bogotá. Una evaluación externa-participativa.

En la última década, uno de los problemas considerados más relevantes de la política pública colombiana es la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional, que contempla no sólo la disponibilidad y el acceso a los alimentos, sino también la utilización y estabilidad (disponibilidad continua) de alimentos sanos, limpios e inocuos para el consumo humano. En este marco, el gobierno de Garzón dio inicio política pública “Bogotá sin indiferencia”, junto con el programa “Bogotá sin Hambre”, que pretendía a través de diversos proyectos garantizar el derecho a la alimentación de la población de escasos recursos; uno de ellos es el proyecto 319 de Agricultura Urbana, el cual presenta continuidad hasta el momento. La presente investigación, realiza una evaluación externa y participativa al proyecto, desentrañando a través de la metodología del marco lógico, los objetivos y metas de dicho proyecto, para seguidamente evaluarlo apoyándose en la propuesta de Cohen y Franco (1992) y García y Ramírez (1994); bajo el supuesto de que su sostenibilidad depende del tipo de huerta, del apoyo institucional y del empoderamiento de los beneficiarios. Desde la mirada de los beneficiarios, se adelantó la evaluación de tres Estudios de Caso que permitieron desvelar los principios que regulan la política pública, las dificultades y problemas estructurales existentes a la misma.

"La sostenibilidad de los proyectos de desarrollo alternativo en Colombia: el caso del proyecto B-91 de UNODC"

Este artículo busca evaluar la sostenibilidad de un proyecto de desarrollo alternativo realizado por la Oficina de las Naciones Unidas Contra la Droga y el Delito en Colombia (UNODC) una vez que esta institución se retiró de la zona de implementación del proyecto. El proyecto analizado se llevó a cabo en 30 municipios entre los años 1997 y 2003. Para determinar si este proyecto fue sostenible, se realizó una breve introducción al tema de la evaluación de proyectos de inversión pública, se delimitó el concepto de desarrollo y se contextualizó el concepto de desarrollo alternativo en Colombia. En el estudio empírico se escogieron cinco indicadores para evaluar la sostenibilidad del proyecto: número de familias asociadas, número de hectáreas erradicadas, ingresos de la organización campesina, cantidad de producción lícita y número de hectáreas sembradas. Estos indicadores fueron contrastados entre el año 2003 – fecha de finalización del proyecto – y el año 2006 para determinar su comportamiento en el mediano plazo, luego de 3 años de haber finalizado las actividades de UNODC en el proyecto. Se encontró finalmente, con base en la comparación de dichos indicadores, que este proyecto es sostenible, con base en los indicadores utilizados, pero que debido a la forma como está planteada la política anti-drogas en Colombia el impacto de estas experiencias exitosas en el problema general de los cultivos ilícitos en el país es muy reducido.

Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century

The Water and Global Change (WATCH) project evaluation of the terrestrial water cycle involves using land surface models and general hydrological models to assess hydrologically important variables including evaporation, soil moisture, and runoff. Such models require meteorological forcing data, and this paper describes the creation of the WATCH Forcing Data for 1958–2001 based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and for 1901–57 based on reordered reanalysis data. It also discusses and analyses modelindependent estimates of reference crop evaporation. Global average annual cumulative reference crop evaporation was selected as a widely adopted measure of potential evapotranspiration. It exhibits no significant trend from 1979 to 2001 although there are significant long-term increases in global average vapor pressure deficit and concurrent significant decreases in global average net radiation and wind speed. The near-constant global average of annual reference crop evaporation in the late twentieth century masks significant decreases in some regions (e.g., the Murray–Darling basin) with significant increases in others.

Evaluating Projects in a Dynamic Economy: Some New Envelope Results

This paper is concerned with the modern theory of social cost-benefit analysis in a dynamic economy. The theory emphasizes the role of a comprehensive, forward-looking, dynamic welfare index within the period of the project rather than that of a project's long-term consequences. However, what constitutes such a welfare index remains controversial in the recent literature. In this paper, we attempt to shed light on the issue by deriving three equivalent cost-benefit rules for evaluating a small project. In particular, we show that the direct change in net national product (NNP) qualifies as a convenient welfare index without involving any other induced side effects. The project evaluation criterion thus becomes the present discounted value of the direct changes in NNP over the project period. We also illustrate the application of this theory in a few stylized examples.