Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets.

Futures trading, spot price volatility and market efficiency: evidence from European real estate securities futures

In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Seguin (1992) and the Gray’s (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and quality of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naïve and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that the contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64 %.

Quantitatively evaluating the effects of price promotions using data mining

Price promotions (also called discount promotions), i.e. short-term temporary price reductions for selected items (Hermann 1989), are frequently used in sales promotions. The main objective of price promotions is to boost sales and increase profits. Quantitative evaluation of the effects of price promotions (QEEPP) is essential and important for sales managers to analyse historical price promotions and informative for devising more effective promotional strategies in the future. However, most previous studies only provide insights into the effects of discount promotions from some specific prospectives, and no approaches have been proposed for comprehensive evaluation of the effects of discount promotions. For example, Hinkle [1965] discovered that price promotions in the off-season are more favourable, and the effects of price promotions are stronger for new products. Peckham [1973] found that price promotions have no impact on long-term trend. Blattberg et al. [1978] identified that different segments respond to price promotions in different ways. Rockney [1991] discovered three basic types of effects: effects on discounted items, effects on substitutes and effects on complementary items.

Stress, inflammation, and cellular vulnerability during early stages of affective disorders: biomarker strategies and opportunities for prevention and intervention

The mood disorder prodrome is conceptualized as a symptomatic, but not yet clinically diagnosable stage of an affective disorder. Although a growing area, more focused research is needed in the pediatric population to better characterize psychopathological symptoms and biological markers that can reliably identify this very early stage in the evolution of mood disorder pathology. Such information will facilitate early prevention and intervention, which has the potential to affect a person’s disease course.This review focuses on the prodromal characteristics, risk factors, and neurobiological mechanisms of mood disorders. In particular, we consider the influence of early-life stress, inflammation, and allostatic load in mediating neural mechanisms of neuroprogression. These inherently modifiable factors have known neuroadaptive and neurodegenerative implications, and consequently may provide useful biomarker targets. Identification of these factors early in the course of the disease will accordingly allow for the introduction of early interventions which augment an individual’s capacity for psychological resilience through maintenance of synaptic integrity and cellular resilience. A targeted and complementary approach to boosting both psychological and physiological resilience simultaneously during the prodromal stage of mood disorder pathology has the greatest promise for optimizing the neurodevelopmental potential of those individuals at risk of disabling mood disorders.

Oil price and stock returns of consumers and producers of crude oil

In this paper we investigate how differently stock returns of oil producers and oil consumers are affected from oil price changes. We find that stock returns of oil producers are affected positively by oil price changes regardless of whether oil price is increasing or decreasing. For oil consumers, oil price changes do not affect all consumer sub-sectors and where it does, this effect is heterogeneous. We find that oil price returns have an asymmetric effect on stock returns for most sub-sectors. We devise simple trading strategies and find that while both consumers and producers of oil can make statistically significant profits, investors in oil producer sectors make relatively more profits than investors in oil consumer sectors.

The economic significance of CDS price discovery

© 2015 Springer Science+Business Media New York Between 2005 and 2009, we document evident time-varying credit risk price discovery between the equity and credit default swap (CDS) markets for 174 US non-financial investment-grade firms. We test the economic significance of a simple portfolio strategy that utilizes fluctuation in CDS spreads as a trading signal to set stock positions, conditional on the CDS price discovery status of the reference entities. We show that a conditional portfolio strategy which updates the list of CDS-influenced firms over time, yields a substantively larger realized return net of transaction cost over the unconditional strategy. Furthermore, the conditional strategy’s Sharpe ratio outperforms a series of benchmark portfolios over the same trading period, including buy-and-hold, momentum and dividend yield strategies.

Fuel ethanol price drivers in the Atlantic basin : Brazil & the U.S. traders perspectives

Como a oportunidade de exportação de etanol combustível é muito recente, o agronegócio carece de literatura para formação de gestores e estrategistas. Este trabalho tem como objetivo descrever o mecanismo de formação de preços de etanol tanto no Brasil como nos Estados Unidos da America. Decupei as variáveis que impactam na formação de preços, custo de produção de etanol de cana-de-açúcar, custo da logística e desidratação no Caribe, custo do etanol de milho e fiz algumas análises de cenários de formação de preços das principais variáveis e consegui organizar este conhecimento em um gráfico que contém no eixo superior preço do etanol hidratado na usina no Brasil e no eixo inferior o preço do bushel de milho em Chicago cujas interceções nas retas da taxa do dólar e do preço do gás natural, fornecem no eixo Y o preço do produto no porto de Nova York, ficando uma visualização simples das possibilidades da janela de exportação. A metodologia permite assumir diferentes cenários de oferta, demanda e preços e estabelecer diferentes estratégias de comercialização.

The adjustment strategies of Mexican ejidatarios in the face of neoliberal reform

Includes bibliography

The fiscal impact of trade liberalization and commodity price fluctuation: the case of Costa Rica, 1980-1998

Includes bibliography

Strategies to improve the mechanical properties of starch-based materials: plasticization and natural fibers reinforcement

Biodegradable polymers are starting to be introduced as raw materials in the food-packaging market. Nevertheless, their price is very high. Starch, a fully biodegradable and bioderived polymer is a very interesting alternative due to its very low price. However, the use of starch as the polymer matrix for the production of rigid food packaging, such as trays, is limited due to its poor mechanical properties, high hidrophilicity and high density. This work presents two strategies to overcome the poor mechanical properties of starch. First, the plasticization of starch with several amounts of glycerol to produce thermoplastic starch (TPS) and second, the production of biocomposites by reinforcing TPS with promising fibers, such as barley straw and grape waste. The mechanical properties obtained are compared with the values predicted by models used in the field of composites; law of mixtures, Kerner-Nielsen and Halpin-Tsai. To evaluate if the materials developed are suitable for the production of food-packaging trays, the TPS-based materials with better mechanical properties were compared with commercial grades of oil-based polymers, polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene-terphthalate (PET), and a biodegradable polymer, polylactic acid (PLA).

Profiting from the Cattle Cycle: Alternative Cow Herd Investment Strategies

Beef cow herd owners can benefit from incorporating price signals into their heifer retention decisions. Whereas a perfect forecast of calf prices over the productive life of the heifer added to the herd would be ideal, such information is not available. However, simple decision rules that incorporate current or recent prices and the knowledge that the cattle cycle likely will repeat itself can help producers improve their investment decisions. A dollar cost averaging strategy that retains the same dollar value of heifers each year and a rolling average value strategy that retains a 10-year average value of heifers out performed strategies that sought to maintain a constant herd size or a constant cash flow.

Linking livelihood strategies with a regional level landscape mosaic to explore trade-offs between forest conservation and human wellbeing in a Madagascar biodiversity hotspot

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar contains the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by diverse small-scale agricultural mosaics. There is high deforestation mainly caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice for subsistence. Today, large protected areas restrict land users’ access to forests to collect wood and other forest products. Moreover, they are no more able to expand their cultivated land, which leads to shorter shifting cultivation cycles and decreasing plot sizes for irrigated rice and cash crop cultivation. Cash crop production of clove and vanilla is exposed to risks such as extreme inter-annual price fluctuations, pests and cyclones. In the absence of work opportunities, agricultural extension services and micro-finance schemes people are stuck in a poverty trap. New development strategies are needed to mitigate the trade-offs between forest conservation and human well-being. As landscape composition and livelihood strategies vary across the region, these strategies need to be spatially differentiated to avoid implementing generic solutions, which do not fit the local context. However, up to date, little is known about the spatial patterns of shifting cultivation and other land use systems at the regional level. This is mainly due to the high spatial and temporal dynamics inherent to shifting cultivation, which makes it difficult to monitor the dynamics of this land use system with remote sensing methods. Furthermore, knowledge about land users’ livelihood strategies and the risks and opportunities they face stems from very few local case studies. To overcome this challenge, firstly, we used remote sensing data and a landscape mosaic approach to delineate the main landscape types at the regional level. Secondly, we developed a land user typology based on socio-ecological data from household surveys in 45 villages spread throughout the region. Combining the land user typology with the landscape mosaic map allowed us to reveal spatial patterns of the interaction between landscapes and people and to better understand the trade-offs between forest conservation and local wellbeing. While shifting cultivation systems are being transformed into more intensive permanent agricultural systems in many countries around the globe, Madagascar seems to be an exception to this trend. Linking land cover information to human-environmental interactions over large areas is crucial to designing policies and to inform decision making for a more sustainable development of this resource-rich but poverty-prone context.

Forecasting Intraday Stock Price Trends with Text Mining Techniques

In this paper, we describe NewsCATS (news categorization and trading system), a system implemented to predict stock price trends for the time immediately after the publication of press releases. NewsCATS consists mainly of three components. The first component retrieves relevant information from press releases through the application of text preprocessing techniques. The second component sorts the press releases into predefined categories. Finally, appropriate trading strategies are derived by the third component by means of the earlier categorization. The findings indicate that a categorization of press releases is able to provide additional information that can be used to forecast stock price trends, but that an adequate trading strategy is essential for the results of the categorization to be fully exploited.

Consumer preferences towards beef cattle in Chile : Importance of country of origin, cut, packaging, brand and price

A study was carried out to evaluate preferences for two cuts, four countries of origin, two forms of presentation, brand and different prices of beef cattle among supermarket buyers in southern Chile, and to distinguish the existence of different market segments, through a survey of 800 people. Using a fractional factorial design for conjoint analysis, it was determined overall that the origin was more important (44.5%) than price (20.8%), form of presentation (12.2%), cut (12.0%) and brand (10.5%), with preference for Chilean and Argentinean striploin, packaged on trays, with no brand at medium price. Using a cluster analysis, three market segments were distinguished. The largest (52.3%) placed great importance on origin and preferred the highest price. The second (27.5%) also valued origin with the greatest preference for Argentinean beef, and it was the only group that preferred the ribeye as the cut. The third (20.5%) placed the greatest importance on price, and was the only group that preferred Paraguayan meat. The segments differed in the importance of eating meat for their personal well-being. The low importance of packaging and brand indicates poorly developed marketing of this product. In order to properly insert brand beef in the Chilean market, communication strategies must be implemented that identify the product with superior quality and that position the brand in the consumer's mind.