Mid-Holocene monsoons: a multi-model analysis of the inter-hemispheric differences in the responses to orbital forcing and ocean feedbacks

The response of monsoon circulation in the northern and southern hemisphere to 6 ka orbital forcing has been examined in 17 atmospheric general circulation models and 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. The atmospheric response to increased summer insolation at 6 ka in the northern subtropics strengthens the northern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to increased monsoonal precipitation in western North America, northern Africa and China; ocean feedbacks amplify this response and lead to further increase in monsoon precipitation in these three regions. The atmospheric response to reduced summer insolation at 6 ka in the southern subtropics weakens the southern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to decreased monsoonal precipitation in northern South America, southern Africa and northern Australia; ocean feedbacks weaken this response so that the decrease in rainfall is smaller than might otherwise be expected. The role of the ocean in monsoonal circulation in other regions is more complex. There is no discernable impact of orbital forcing in the monsoon region of North America in the atmosphere-only simulations but a strong increase in precipitation in the ocean–atmosphere simulations. In contrast, there is a strong atmospheric response to orbital forcing over northern India but ocean feedback reduces the strength of the change in the monsoon although it still remains stronger than today. Although there are differences in magnitude and exact location of regional precipitation changes from model to model, the same basic mechanisms are involved in the oceanic modulation of the response to orbital forcing and this gives rise to a robust ensemble response for each of the monsoon systems. Comparison of simulated and reconstructed changes in regional climate suggest that the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations produce more realistic changes in the northern-hemisphere monsoons than atmosphere-only simulations, though they underestimate the observed changes in precipitation in all regions. Evaluation of the southern-hemisphere monsoons is limited by lack of quantitative reconstructions, but suggest that model skill in simulating these monsoons is limited.

Orbital and millenial-scale environmental changes between 64 and 25 ka BP recorded in Black Sea sediments

High-resolution pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from sediment core M72/5-25-GC1 were used to reconstruct vegetation dynamics in northern Anatolia and surface conditions of the Black Sea between 64 and 20 ka BP. During this period, the dominance of Artemisia in the pollen record indicates a steppe landscape and arid climate conditions. However, the concomitant presence of temperate arboreal pollen suggests the existence of glacial refugia in northern Anatolia. Long-term glacial vegetation dynamics reveal two major arid phases ~64–55 and 40–32 ka BP, and two major humid phases ~54–45 and 28–20 ka BP, correlating with higher and lower summer insolation, respectively. Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles are clearly indicated by the 25-GC1 pollen record. Greenland interstadials are characterized by a marked increase in temperate tree pollen, indicating a spread of forests due to warm/wet conditions in northern Anatolia, whereas Greenland stadials reveal cold and arid conditions as indicated by spread of xerophytic biomes. There is evidence for a phase lag of ~500 to 1500 yr between initial warming and forest expansion, possibly due to successive changes in atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic sector. The dominance of Pyxidinopsis psilata and Spiniferites cruciformis in the dinocyst record indicates brackish Black Sea conditions during the entire glacial period. The decrease of marine indicators (marine dinocysts, acritarchs) at ~54 ka BP and increase of freshwater algae (Pediastrum, Botryococcus) from 32 to 25 ka BP reveals freshening of the Black Sea surface water. This freshening is possibly related to humid phases in the region, to connection between Caspian Sea and Black Sea, to seasonal freshening by floating ice, and/or to closer position of river mouths due to low sea level. In the southern Black Sea, Greenland interstadials are clearly indicated by high dinocyst concentrations and calcium carbonate content, as a result of an increase in primary productivity. Heinrich events show a similar impact on the environment in the northern Anatolia/Black Sea region as Greenland stadials.

DETECTABILITY AND ERROR ESTIMATION IN ORBITAL FITS OF RESONANT EXTRASOLAR PLANETS

We estimate the conditions for detectability of two planets in a 2/1 mean-motion resonance from radial velocity data, as a function of their masses, number of observations and the signal-to-noise ratio. Even for a data set of the order of 100 observations and standard deviations of the order of a few meters per second, we find that Jovian-size resonant planets are difficult to detect if the masses of the planets differ by a factor larger than similar to 4. This is consistent with the present population of real exosystems in the 2/1 commensurability, most of which have resonant pairs with similar minimum masses, and could indicate that many other resonant systems exist, but are currently beyond the detectability limit. Furthermore, we analyze the error distribution in masses and orbital elements of orbital fits from synthetic data sets for resonant planets in the 2/1 commensurability. For various mass ratios and number of data points we find that the eccentricity of the outer planet is systematically overestimated, although the inner planet`s eccentricity suffers a much smaller effect. If the initial conditions correspond to small-amplitude oscillations around stable apsidal corotation resonances, the amplitudes estimated from the orbital fits are biased toward larger amplitudes, in accordance to results found in real resonant extrasolar systems.

Orbital maneuvers using gravitational capture times

Artificial satellites around the Earth can be temporarily captured by the Moon via gravitational mechanisms., How long the capture remains depends on the phase space region where the trajectory is located. This interval of time (capture time) ranges from less than one day (a single passage), up to 500 days, or even more. Orbits of longer times might be very useful for certain types of missions. The advantage of the ballistic capture is to save fuel consumption in an orbit transference from around the Earth to around the Moon. Some of the impulse needed in the transference is saved by the use of the gravitational forces involved. However, the time needed for the transference is elongated from days to months. In the present work we have mapped a significant part of the phase space of the Earth-Moon system, determining the length of the capture times and the origin of the trajectory, if it comes from the Earth direction, or from the opposite direction. Using such map we present a set of missions considering the utilization of the long capture times. (C) 2003 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Orbital perturbations using geopotential coefficients up to high degree and order: Highly eccentric orbits

Several methods have been proposed for calculations of the eccentricity function for a high value of the eccentricity, however they cannot be used when the high degree and order coefficients of gravity fields are taken into account. The method proposed by Wnuk(1) is numerically stable in this case, but when is used. a large number of terms occurs in formulas for geopotential perturbations. In this paper we propose an application of expansions of some functions of the eccentric anomaly E as well as Hansen coefficients in power series of (e - e*), where e* is a fixed value of the eccentricity derived by da Silva Fernandes(2,3,4). These series are convergent for all e < 1.

Analytical direct planetary perturbations on the orbital motion of satellites

An analytical expansion of the disturbing function arising from direct planetary perturbations on the motion of satellites is derived. As a Fourier series, it allows the investigation of the secular effects of these direct perturbations, as well as of every argument present in the perturbation. In particular, we construct an analytical model describing the evection resonance between the longitude of pericenter of the satellite orbit and the longitude of a planet, and study briefly its dynamic. The expansion developed in this paper is valid in the case of planar and circular planetary orbits, but not limited in eccentricity or inclination of the satellite orbit. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

An analysis of the Hygiea asteroid family orbital region

(10) Hygiea is the fourth largest asteroid of the main belt, by volume and mass, and it is the largest member of its family, that is made mostly by low-albedo, C-type asteroids, typical of the outer main belt. Like many other large families, it is associated with a 'halo' of objects, that extends far beyond the boundary of the core family, as detected by traditional hierarchical clustering methods (HCM) in proper element domains. Numerical simulations of the orbital evolution of family members may help in estimating the family and halo family age, and the original ejection velocity field. But, in order to minimize the errors associated with including too many interlopers, it is important to have good estimates of family membership that include available data on local asteroid taxonomy, geometrical albedo and local dynamics. For this purpose, we obtained synthetic proper elements and frequencies of asteroids in the Hygiea orbital region, with their errors. We revised the current knowledge on asteroid taxonomy, including Sloan Digital Sky Survey-Moving Object Catalog 4th release (SDSS-MOC 4) data, and geometric albedo data from Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and Near-Earth Object WISE (NEOWISE). We identified asteroid family members using HCM in the domain of proper elements (a, e, sin (i)) and in the domains of proper frequencies most appropriate to study diffusion in the local web of secular resonances, and eliminated possible interlopers based on taxonomic and geometrical albedo considerations. To identify the family halo, we devised a new hierarchical clustering method in an extended domain that includes proper elements, principal components PC1, PC2 obtained based on SDSS photometric data and, for the first time, WISE and NEOWISE geometric albedo. Data on asteroid size distribution, light curves and rotations were also revised for the Hygiea family. The Hygiea family is the largest group in its region, with two smaller families in proper element domain and 18 families in various frequencies domains identified in this work for the first time. Frequency groups tend to extend vertically in the (a, sin (i)) plane and cross not only the Hygiea family but also the near C-type families of Themis and Veritas, causing a mixture of objects all of relatively low albedo in the Hygiea family area. A few high-albedo asteroids, most likely associated with the Eos family, are also present in the region. Finally, the new multidomains hierarchical clustering method allowed us to obtain a good and robust estimate of the membership of the Hygiea family halo, quite separated from other asteroids families halo in the region, and with a very limited (about 3 per cent) presence of likely interlopers. © 2013 The Author Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.

Dynamics of rotation of super-Earths

We numerically investigate the dynamics of rotation of several close-in terrestrial exoplanet candidates. In our model, the rotation of the planet is disturbed by the torque of the central star due to the asymmetric equilibrium figure of the planet. We model the shape of the planet by a Jeans spheroid. We use surfaces of section and spectral analysis to explore numerically the rotation phase space of the systems adopting different sets of parameters and initial conditions close to the main spin-orbit resonant states. One of the parameters, the orbital eccentricity, is critically discussed here within the domain of validity of orbital circularization timescales given by tidal models. We show that, depending on some parameters of the system like the radius and mass of the planet, eccentricity etc., the rotation can be strongly perturbed and a chaotic layer around the synchronous state may occupy a significant region of the phase space. 55 Cnc e is an example. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Long-term dynamics of Methone, Anthe and Pallene

We numerically investigate the long-term dynamics of the Saturn's small satellites Methone (S/2004 S1), Anthe (S/2007 S4) and Pallene (S/2004 S2). In our numerical integrations, these satellites are disturbed by non-spherical shape of Saturn and the six nearest regular satellites. The stability of the small bodies is studied here by analyzing long-term evolution of their orbital elements.We show that long-term evolution of Pallene is dictated by a quasi secular resonance involving the ascending nodes (12) and longitudes of pericentric distances (pi) of Mimas (subscript 1) and Pallene (subscript 2), which critical argument is pi(2) - pi(1) - Omega(1) + Omega(2) Long-term orbital evolution of Methone and Anthe are probably chaotic since: i) their orbits randomly cross the orbit of Mimas in time scales of thousands years); ii) long-term numerical simulations involving both small satellites are strongly affected by small changes in the initial conditions.

Multi-planet extrasolar systems - detection and dynamics

20 years after the discovery of the first planets outside our solar system, the current exoplanetary population includes more than 700 confirmed planets around main sequence stars. Approximately 50% belong to multiple-planet systems in very diverse dynamical configurations, from two-planet hierarchical systems to multiple resonances that could only have been attained as the consequence of a smooth large-scale orbital migration. The first part of this paper reviews the main detection techniques employed for the detection and orbital characterization of multiple-planet systems, from the (now) classical radial velocity (RV) method to the use of transit time variations (TTV) for the identification of additional planetary bodies orbiting the same star. In the second part we discuss the dynamical evolution of multi-planet systems due to their mutual gravitational interactions. We analyze possible modes of motion for hierarchical, secular or resonant configurations, and what stability criteria can be defined in each case. In some cases, the dynamics can be well approximated by simple analytical expressions for the Hamiltonian function, while other configurations can only be studied with semi-analytical or numerical tools. In particular, we show how mean-motion resonances can generate complex structures in the phase space where different libration islands and circulation domains are separated by chaotic layers. In all cases we use real exoplanetary systems as working examples.

Stability and dynamics of terrestrial planets in binary star systems: application on Alpha Centauri

Binary stars are frequent in the universe, with about 50% of the known main sequence stars being located at a multiple star system (Abt, 1979). Even though, they are universally thought as second rate sites for the location of exo-planets and the habitable zone, due to the difficulties of detection and high perturbation that could prevent planet formation and long term stability. In this work we show that planets in binary star systems can have regular orbits and remain on the habitable zone. We introduce a stability criterium based on the solution of the restricted three body problem and apply it to describe the short period planar and three-dimentional stability zones of S-type orbits around each star of the Alpha Centauri system. We develop as well a semi-analytical secular model to study the long term dynamics of fictional planets in the habitable zone of those stars and we verify that planets on the habitable zone would be in regular orbits with any eccentricity and with inclination to the binary orbital plane up until 35 degrees. We show as well that the short period oscillations on the semi-major axis is 100 times greater than the Earth's, but at all the time the planet would still be found inside the Habitable zone.

Orbital debris mitigation through deorbiting with passive electrodynamic drag

The increase of orbital debris and the consequent proliferation of smaller objects through fragmentation are driving the need for mitigation strategies. The issue is how to deorbit the satellite with an efficient system that does not impair drastically the propellant budget of the satellite and, consequently, reduces its operating life. We have been investigating, in the framework of a European-Community-funded project, a passive system that makes use of an electrodynamics tether to deorbit a satellite through Lorentz forces. The deorbiting system will be carried by the satellite itself at launch and deployed from the satellite at the end of its life. From that moment onward the system operates passively without requiring any intervention from the satellite itself. The paper summarizes the results of the analysis carried out to show the deorbiting performance of the system starting from different orbital altitudes and inclinations for a reference satellite mass. Results can be easily scaled to other satellite masses. The results have been obtained by using a high-fidelity computer model that uses the latest environmental routines for magnetic field, ionospheric density, atmospheric density and a gravity field model. The tether dynamics is modelled by considering all the main aspects of a real system as the tether flexibility and its temperature-dependent electrical conductivity. Temperature variations are computed by including all the major external and internal input fluxes and the thermal flux emitted from the tether. The results shows that a relatively compact and light system can carry out the complete deorbit of a relatively large satellite in a time ranging from a month to less than a year starting from high LEO with the best performance occurring at low orbital inclinations.

Long-term dynamics of fast rotating tethers around planetary satellites

We derive a semi-analytic formulation that enables the study of the long-term dynamics of fast-rotating inert tethers around planetary satellites. These equations take into account the coupling between the translational and rotational motion, which has a non-negligible impact on the dynamics, as the orbital motion of the tether center of mass strongly depends on the tether plane of rotation and its spin rate, and vice-versa. We use these governing equations to explore the effects of this coupling on the dynamics, the lifetime of frozen orbits and the precession of the plane of rotation of the tether.

Calcareous plankton response to orbital and millennial-scale climate changes from ODP Leg 161-975

The paleoenvironmental conditions through MIS 15-9 at the Mediterranean Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 975 were interpreted by high resolution study of calcareous plankton assemblages compared with available d18O and d13C records and high resolution paleoclimate proxies from the Atlantic Ocean. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have been estimated from planktonic foraminiferal assemblages using the artificial neural networks method. Calcareous plankton varied dominantly on a glacial-interglacial scale as testified by the SST record, foraminiferal diversity, total coccolith abundance and changes in warm-water calcareous nannofossil taxa. A general increase in foraminiferal diversity and of total coccolith abundance is observed during interglacials. Warmest SSTs are reached during MIS 11, while MIS 12 and MIS 10 represent the coldest intervals of the studied record. During MIS 12, one of the most extreme glacials of the last million years, occurrence of Globorotalia inflata and of neogloboquadrinids indicates a shoaling of the interface between Atlantic inflowing and Mediterranean outflowing waters. Among calcareous nannofossils the distribution of Gephyrocapsa margereli-G. muellerae > 4 µm also supports a reduced Atlantic-Mediterranean exchange during MIS 12. Superimposed on glacial-interglacial variability, six short-terms coolings are recognized during MIS 12 and 10, which appear comparable in their distribution and amplitude to the Heinrich - type events documented in the Atlantic Ocean in the same interval. During these H-type events, N. pachyderma (s) and G. margereli-G. muellerae > 4 µm increase as a response to the enhanced inflow of cold Atlantic water into the Mediterranean via the Strait of Gibraltar. Mediterranean surface water hydrography appears to have been most severely affected at Termination V during the H-type event Ht4, possibly as a response to a large volume of Atlantic meltwater inflow via the Strait of Gibraltar and/or to freshwater/terrigenous input deriving from local mountain glaciers. Three additional SST coolings are recorded through MIS 14-16, but these are not well correlated with Heinrich - type events documented in the Atlantic Ocean in the same interval; during these cooling episodes only the subpolar Turborotalita quinqueloba increases. These results highlight the sensitive response of the Mediterranean basin to millennial-scale climate variations related to Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet instability and support the hypothesis that the tight connection between high latitude climate dynamics and Mediterranean sea surface water features can be traced through the Middle Pleistocene.