Cameron’s ‘renegotiations’ (or Russian roulette) with the EU: An interim assessment. CEPS Working Document No. 413/September 2015

Since the May 2015 general election when the Tory Party gained an absolute majority in the House of Commons, Prime Minister Cameron has put his campaign into high gear to get a ‘new settlement’ with the EU and invested much personal diplomacy to try to advance his objective. “What does he really want?” is still heard from other EU leaders, yet his agenda is taking rough shape with calls for results under four headings: “competitiveness, sovereignty, social security and economic governance”. These are only code words, however, for a mixed bag of more specific desiderata, which overall seem to be moderate. Impossible demands have been quietly dropped. Some items will still be tricky to negotiate while others can be placed on the agenda for ongoing EU ‘reform’ that can be widely supported. The Brussels side of the affair thus seems manageable, but the wild cards at home in the UK remain or are becoming even wilder. The standard hazards of the referendum instrument are now exacerbated by the unknown quantity of the new Labour leadership alongside the aggressively Eurosceptic majority of Tory MPs and the great migration crisis, which is translating now into a negative factor for the EU in UK opinion polls. This ostensibly very democratic process is looking more and more like a deadly serious game of Russian roulette.

The Electoral Verdict and After: The Road Ahead for India. Asia Policy Brief 2014/04, June 2014

The convincing victory of the BJP in the 2014 Indian general elections came as a surprise to many. Most opinion polls, which had predicted a win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that it leads, had not anticipated the scale of the party’s victory. The BJP alone won 282 seats and the NDA 336 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament. Two things stand out in the verdict. This is the first time in 30 years that a party won a majority on its own; this is also the worst-ever showing by India’s grand old party, the Indian National Congress, which won a mere 44 seats, 70 less than its previous all-time low in 1999.

Scotland and the European Union. EPC Policy Brief, 14 July 2016

Britain’s referendum on EU membership revealed a country divided; while the United Kingdom voted to leave by 52%, Scotland voted by 62% to remain in the EU, putting the question of Scottish independence back on the table. The Scottish government says that Scotland should not be taken out of the EU against the will of its people, and that a second referendum on independence is “highly likely”. Although the Scottish people voted against independence in a referendum in 2014, opinion polls currently suggest that a majority in Scotland wants another referendum, and would vote for independence. In this Policy Brief, Graham Avery looks at how the Scottish question relates to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU; what factors have changed since the Scottish people voted against independence in 2014 and what Scotland‘s chances are of remaining in the EU.

Evaluation of the 2006 Illinois "Click It or Ticket" Campaign, April 24-June 18, 2006 /

Evaluates the impact of the "Click It or Ticket" campaign (May 2006) by using statewide public opinion and observational surveys of licensed Illinois drivers.

Evaluation of the 2006 Thanksgiving Click It or Ticket Campaign in Illinois, November 6 - December 10, 2006 /

Evaluates the impact of the "Click It or Ticket" campaign (April 2007) by using statewide public opinion and observational surveys of licensed Illinois drivers.

Optimal strategies in political elections

In the Majoritarian Parliamentary System, the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right provides the government a control to achieve its objective to remain in power for as long as possible. We model the early election problem mathematically using opinion polls data as a stochastic process to proxy the government's probability of re-election. These data measure the difference in popularity between the government and the opposition. We fit a mean reverting Stochastic Differential Equation to describe the behaviour of the process and consider the possibility for the government to use other control tools, which are termed 'boosts' to induce shocks to the opinion polls by making timely policy announcements or economic actions. These actions improve the government's popularity and have some impact upon the early-election exercise boundary. © Austral. Mathematical Soc. 2005.

Political representation in France: a crisis of democracy?

The past two decades have witnessed growing political disaffection and a widening mass/elite disjuncture in France, reflected in opinion polls, rising abstentionism, electoral volatility and fragmentation, with sustained voting against incumbent governments. Though the electoral system has preserved the duopoly of the mainstream coalitions, they have suffered loss of public confidence and swings in electoral support. Stable parliamentary majorities conceal a political landscape of assorted anti-system parties and growing support for far right and far left. The picture is paradoxical: the French express alienation from political parties yet relate positively to their political institutions; they berate national politicians but retain strong bonds with those elected locally; they appear increasingly disengaged from politics yet forms of ‘direct democracy’ are finding new vigour. While the electoral, attitudinal and systemic factors reviewed here may not signal a crisis of democracy, they point to serious problems of political representation in contemporary France.

Lack of Answer Estimation by Fuzzy Control

The problem of the lack of answer in questions of survey is usually dealt with different estimation and classification procedures from the answers to other questions. In this document, the results of applying fuzzy control methods for the vote -one of the variables with bigger lack of answer in opinion polls- are presented.

Automatic Generation of Titles for a Corpus of Questions

This paper describes the followed methodology to automatically generate titles for a corpus of questions that belong to sociological opinion polls. Titles for questions have a twofold function: (1) they are the input of user searches and (2) they inform about the whole contents of the question and possible answer options. Thus, generation of titles can be considered as a case of automatic summarization. However, the fact that summarization had to be performed over very short texts together with the aforementioned quality conditions imposed on new generated titles led the authors to follow knowledge-rich and domain-dependent strategies for summarization, disregarding the more frequent extractive techniques for summarization.

Estimation of Fraction of Distinguished Elements in Population Based on Partially Realized Random Sample

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: 62D05.

Landscape of fear: A social history of the missile during the early years of the Cold War, 1950–1965

The missile's significance has been central to national security since the Soviet launching of Sputnik, and became increasingly important throughout the years of the Cold War. Much has been written about missile technology, but little has been written about how the development and deployment of this weapon affected Americans. The missile was developed to both deter war but also to win war. Its presence, however, was not always reassuring. Three areas of the United States are studied to evaluate the social implications of the missile during these pivotal years: San Francisco, home of multiple Nike installations; of Cape Canaveral, Florida, the nation's primary missile test center; the Great Plains, the location of the largest ICBM concentration in the country. Interviews were conducted, tours of facilities were taken, and local newspapers were reviewed. In conjunction with national newspapers and magazines and public opinion polls, this information provided a local social context for missile history. Nationally and locally, Americans both feared and praised the new technology. They were anxious for government funding in their cities and often felt that the danger the missile brought to their communities by making it as a Soviet target was justified in the larger cause for national security.

Cultural perceptions of space and place in the South Florida *environment

Public opinion polls in the United States reveal that a great majority of Americans are aware and show concern about ecological issues and the need to preserve natural areas. In South Florida, natural resources have been subjected to enormous strain as the pressure to accommodate a growing population has led to rapid development. Suburbs have been built on areas that were once natural wetlands and farmlands, and the impact today shows a landscape where natural places have all but disappeared. This dissertation examines the intersection between the perceptions that individuals living in the South Florida region have with respect to the natural environment and local ecological problems with where their relationship to nature takes place. ^ The research is based upon both quantitative and qualitative data. The principal methodology used in this research is the ethnographic method, which employed the data gathering techniques of in-depth interviewing and participant observation. The objective of the qualitative portion of the study was to determine how people perceive and relate to their immediate environment. The quantitative portion of the study employed telephone survey data from the FIU/Florida Poll 2000. Data collected through this survey provided the basis to statistically test responses to the research questions. ^ The findings show that people in South Florida have a general idea of the relationship between the human population and the environment but very little knowledge of how they individually affect each other. The experience of private places and public spaces in everyday life permits people to compartmentalize cultural values and understandings of the natural world in separate cognitive schemas. The appreciation of the natural world has almost no connection to their personal sense of obligation to preserve the environment. That obligation is only felt in their home space even though the South Florida environment overall struggles desperately with water shortages, land encroachment, and a rapidly expanding human population whose activities continuously aggravate an already delicate natural balance. ^

Landscape of fear : a social history of the missile during the early years of the cold war, 1950-1965

The missile's significance has been central to national security since the Soviet launching of Sputnik, and became increasingly important throughout the years of the Cold War. Much has been written about missile technology, but little has been written about how the development and deployment of this weapon affected Americans. The missile was developed to both deter war but also to win war. Its presence, however, was not always reassuring. Three areas of the United States are studied to evaluate the social implications of the missile during these pivotal years: San Francisco, home of multiple Nike installations; of Cape Canaveral, Florida, the nation's primary missile test center; the Great Plains, the location of the largest ICBM concentration in the country. Interviews were conducted, tours of facilities were taken, and local newspapers were reviewed. In conjunction with national newspapers and magazines and public opinion polls, this information provided a local social context for missile history. Nationally and locally, Americans both feared and praised the new technology. They were anxious for government funding in their cities and often felt that the danger the missile brought to their communities by making it as a Soviet target was justified in the larger cause for national security.

Political parties and trade unions in the post-communist Poland:class politics that have never a chance to happen

Trade unions in Poland have not built the stable and long-term relations with political parties as are observed in Western democracies. By analysing the historical and symbolic background of the transformation to a democratic civil society and free market economy, political preferences of working class, trade union membership rates, and public opinion polls, we argue that, in case of Poland, the initial links between political parties and trade unions weakened over time. Polish trade unions never had a chance to become a long-term intermediary between society and political parties, making the Polish case study a double exception from the traditional models.

Programas de tertulia política en Twitter: un modelo neurocomunicativo de análisis del discurso

En este trabajo aplicamos a la red social Twitter un modelo de análisis del discurso político y mediático desarrollado en publicaciones previas, que permite hacer compatible el estudio de los datos discursivos con propuestas explicativas surgidas a propósito de la comunicación política (neurocomunicación) y de la comunicación digital (la red como quinto estado, convergencia, inteligencia colectiva). Asumimos que hay categorías del encuadre discursivo (frame) que pueden ser tratadas como indicadores de habilidades cognitivas y comunicativas. Analizamos estas categorías agrupándolas en tres dimensiones fundamentales: la intencional (ilocutividad del tuit, encuadre interpretativo de las etiquetas), referencial (temas, protagonistas), e interactiva (alineamiento estructural, predictibilidad; marcas de intertextualidad y dialogismo; afiliación partidista). El corpus consta de 4116 tuits: 3000 tuits pertenecientes a los programas Al Rojo Vivo (La Sexta: A3 Media), Las Mañanas Cuatro (Cuatro: Mediaset) y Los Desayunos de TVE (RTVE), 1116 tuits de seguidores de los programas, que corresponden a 45 tuits de cada programa. Los resultados confirman que el modelo permite establecer diferentes perfiles de subjetividad política en las cuentas de Twitter.