Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

Hanseníase no município de Fortaleza, CE, Brasil: aspectos epidemiológicos e operacionais em menores de 15 anos (1995-2006)

Estudo transversal que objetiva analisar a ocorrência de casos de hanseníase em menores de 15 anos de idade residentes no Município de Fortaleza e notificados no SINAN. Os indicadores epidemiológicos nesta população mostram hiperendemicidade. Operacionalmente observa-se a manutenção da concentração de atendimento em algumas unidades de referência, apesar de alguns avanços. Diagnóstico tardio, elevado grau de incapacidade no diagnóstico e baixo grau de avaliação de contatos registrados revelam a fragilidade das ações de controle. Ressalta-se a possibilidade de erro diagnóstico frente às características da infecção nesta população. A ocorrência de casos de hanseníase nesta população representa um indicador epidemiológico de grande relevância e sua análise amplia a discussão sobre problemas operacionais na rede de serviços de saúde.

Validade de indicadores de atividade física e sedentarismo obtidos por inquérito telefônico

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a reprodutibilidade e a validade de indicadores de atividade física e sedentarismo, obtidos por sistema de vigilância baseado em inquéritos telefônicos. MÉTODOS: Foram realizadas análises de reprodutibilidade e validade em duas subamostras aleatórias (n=110 e n=111, respectivamente) da amostra total (N=2.024) de adultos (>18 anos), estudada pelo sistema, no município de São Paulo, em 2005. Os indicadores avaliados incluíram a freqüência de "suficientemente ativos no lazer", "inativos em quatro domínios da atividade física (lazer, trabalho, transporte e atividades domésticas)" e "ver televisão por longos períodos". A reprodutibilidade foi estudada comparando-se resultados obtidos a partir da entrevista telefônica original do sistema e de outra entrevista idêntica repetida após sete a 15 dias e feita por entrevistador diferente do que fez a entrevista original. A validade foi estudada comparando-se resultados obtidos a partir da entrevista telefônica original e de três recordatórios de 24 horas (método de referência) realizados na semana seguinte à entrevista original. RESULTADOS: A freqüência dos três indicadores avaliados foi idêntica ou muito próxima entre a primeira e a segunda entrevistas telefônicas, e os coeficientes kappa se situaram entre 0,53 e 0,80, indicando boa reprodutibilidade de todos os indicadores. Relativamente ao método de referência, evidenciou-se especificidade de 80% ou mais para os três indicadores e sensibilidade de 69,7% para "ver televisão por longos períodos", 59,1% para "inativos em quatro domínios" e 50% para "suficientemente ativos no lazer". CONCLUSÕES: Os indicadores de atividade física e sedentarismo empregados pelo sistema aparentam ser reprodutíveis e suficientemente acurados. Se mantido em operação nos próximos anos, o sistema poderá oferecer ao Brasil um instrumento útil para avaliação de políticas públicas de promoção da atividade física e controle das doenças crôni

Microbiological indicators for the assessment of performance in the hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) system in meat lasagna production

The HACCP system is being increasingly used to ensure food safety. This study investigated the validation of the control measures technique in order to establish performance indicators of this HACCP system in the manufacturing process of Lasagna Bolognese (meat lasagna). Samples were collected along the manufacturing process as a whole, before and after the CCPs. The following microorganism s indicator (MIs) was assessed: total mesophile and faecal coliform counts. The same MIs were analyzed in the final product, as well as, the microbiological standards required by the current legislation. A significant reduction in the total mesophile count was observed after cooking (p < 0.001). After storage, there was a numerical, however non-significant change in the MI count. Faecal coliform counts were also significantly reduced (p < 0.001) after cooking. We were able to demonstrate that the HACCP system allowed us to meet the standards set by both, the company and the Brazilian regulations, proved by the reduction in the established indicators

Direct Computation of Operational Matrices for Polynomial Bases

Several numerical methods for boundary value problems use integral and differential operational matrices, expressed in polynomial bases in a Hilbert space of functions. This work presents a sequence of matrix operations allowing a direct computation of operational matrices for polynomial bases, orthogonal or not, starting with any previously known reference matrix. Furthermore, it shows how to obtain the reference matrix for a chosen polynomial base. The results presented here can be applied not only for integration and differentiation, but also for any linear operation.

Rotation curve bifurcations as indicators of close recent galaxy encounters

Context. Rotation curves of interacting galaxies often show that velocities are either rising or falling in the direction of the companion galaxy. Aims. We seek to reproduce and analyse these features in the rotation curves of simulated equal-mass galaxies suffering a one-to-one encounter as possible indicators of close encounters. Methods. Using simulations of major mergers in 3D, we study the time evolution of these asymmetries in a pair of galaxies during the first passage. Results. Our main results are: (a) the rotation curve asymmetries appear right at pericentre of the first passage, (b) the significant disturbed rotation velocities occur within a small time interval, of similar to 0.5 Gyr h(-1), and, therefore, the presence of bifurcation in the velocity curve could be used as an indicator of the pericentre occurrence. These results are in qualitative agreement with previous findings for minor mergers and flybys.

Evaluation of biologic occupational risk control practices: Quality indicators development and validation

Background: There is growing demand for the adoption of qualification systems for health care practices. This study is aimed at describing the development and validation of indicators for evaluation of biologic occupational risk control programs. Methods: The study involved 3 stages: (1) setting up a research team, (2) development of indicators, and (3) validation of the indicators by a team of specialists recruited to validate each attribute of the developed indicators. The content validation method was used for the validation, and a psychometric scale was developed for the specialists` assessment. A consensus technique was used, and every attribute that obtained a Content Validity Index of at least 0.75 was approved. Results: Eight indicators were developed for the evaluation of the biologic occupational risk prevention program, with emphasis on accidents caused by sharp instruments and occupational tuberculosis prevention. The indicators included evaluation of the structure, process, and results at the prevention and biologic risk control levels. The majority of indicators achieved a favorable consensus regarding all validated attributes. Conclusion: The developed indicators were considered validated, and the method used for construction and validation proved to be effective.

Multi-objective analysis of impacts of distributed generation placement on the operational characteristics of networks for distribution system planning

Recent advances in energy technology generation and new directions in electricity regulation have made distributed generation (DG) more widespread, with consequent significant impacts on the operational characteristics of distribution networks. For this reason, new methods for identifying such impacts are needed, together with research and development of new tools and resources to maintain and facilitate continued expansion towards DG. This paper presents a study aimed at determining appropriate DG sites for distribution systems. The main considerations which determine DG sites are also presented, together with an account of the advantages gained from correct DG placement. The paper intends to define some quantitative and qualitative parameters evaluated by Digsilent (R), GARP3 (R) and DSA-GD software. A multi-objective approach based on the Bellman-Zadeh algorithm and fuzzy logic is used to determine appropriate DG sites. The study also aims to find acceptable DG locations both for distribution system feeders, as well as for nodes inside a given feeder. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of the Operational Constraints in the Active Transmission Losses Allocation via Lagrange Multipliers

This paper presents an approach for the active transmission losses allocation between the agents of the system. The approach uses the primal and dual variable information of the Optimal Power Flow in the losses allocation strategy. The allocation coefficients are determined via Lagrange multipliers. The paper emphasizes the necessity to consider the operational constraints and parameters of the systems in the problem solution. An example, for a 3-bus system is presented in details, as well as a comparative test with the main allocation methods. Case studies on the IEEE 14-bus systems are carried out to verify the influence of the constraints and parameters of the system in the losses allocation.

Advanced process of microbiological control of wastewater in combined system of disinfection with UV radiation

The purpose of this study was to present a methodology with superior efficiency for inactivating pathogenic indicators commonly found in domestic sewage. The adopted method was based on synergistic effect resulting from the introduction of a UV radiation pre-disinfection stage of sewage followed by secondary treatment. A pilot unit was installed in the sewage treatment plant of the University of Sao Paulo to simulate the combined system in full-scale operational conditions. Its performance was evaluated through microbiological examinations for determining Escherichia coli, total coliforms and coliphages. The application of UV radiation at 5.1mW/cm(2) for 10 s of exposure in the first disinfection stage was enough to reduce the surviving number of E. coli around 100 times, in comparison to the conventional method. Therefore, based on experimental data, it is possible to conclude that combining treatment and pre-disinfection stage is an effective potential technique to produce effluents with lower degree of contamination by pathogenic organisms.

Physical-chemical and operational performance of an anaerobic baffled reactor (ABR) treating swine wastewater

Since hog raising concentrates a huge amount of swine manure in small areas, it is considered by the environmental government organizations to be one of the most potentially pollutant activities. Therefore the main objective of this research was to evaluate by operational criteria and removal efficiency, the performance of a Anaerobic Baffled Reactor (ABR), working as a biological pre-treatment of swine culture effluents. The physical-chemical analyses carried out were: total COD, BOD(5), total solids (TS), fix (TFS) and volatiles (TVS), temperature, pH, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, phosphorus, total acidity and alkalinity. The ABR unit worked with an average efficiency of 65.2 and 76.2%, respectively, concerning total COD and BOD(5), with a hydraulic retention time (HRT) about 15 hours. The results for volumetric organic loading rate (VOLR), organic loading rate (OLR) and hydraulic loading rate (HLR) were: 4.46 kg BOD m(-3) day(-1); 1.81 kg BOD(5) kg TVS(-1) day(-1) and 1.57 m(3) m(-3) day(-1), respectively. The average efficiency of the whole treatment system for total COD and BOD(5) removal were 66.5 and 77.8%, showing an adequate performance in removing die organic matter from swine wastewater.

A novel approach for Modeling the steady-state VSC-based multiline FACTS controllers and their operational constraints

A new, simple approach for modeling and assessing the operation and response of the multiline voltage-source controller (VSC)-based flexible ac transmission system controllers, namely the generalized interline power-flow controller (GIPFC) and the interline power-flow controller (IPFC), is presented in this paper. The model and the analysis developed are based on the converters` power balance method which makes use of the d-q orthogonal coordinates to thereafter present a direct solution for these controllers through a quadratic equation. The main constraints and limitations that such devices present while controlling the two independent ac systems considered, will also be evaluated. In order to examine and validate the steady-state model initially proposed, a phase-shift VSC-based GIPFC was also built in the Alternate Transients Program program whose results are also included in this paper. Where applicable, a comparative evaluation between the GIPFC and the IPFC is also presented.

An air-standard cycle and a thermodynamic perspective on operational limits of Ranque-Hilsh or vortex tubes

A Thermodynamic air-standard cycle was envisaged for Ranque-Hilsh (R-H) or Vortex Tubes to provide relevant Thermodynamic analysis and tools for setting operating limits according to the conservation laws of mass and energy, as well as the constraint of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The study used an integral or control volume approach and resulted in establishing working equations for evaluating the performance of an R-H tube. The work proved that the coefficient of performance does not depend on the R-H tube operating mode, i.e., the same value is obtained independently if the R-H tube operates either as a heat pump or as a refrigeration device. It was also shown that the isentropic coefficient of performance displays optima values of cold and hot mass fractions for a given operating pressure ratio. Finally, the study was concluded by comparing the present analysis with some experimental data available in the literature for operating pressures ranging 2-11 atm. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved.

In-Line Monitoring of Particle Size during Emulsion Polymerization under Different Operational Conditions using NIR Spectroscopy

In the present work, the sensitivity of NIR spectroscopy toward the evolution of particle size was studied during emulsion homopolymerization of styrene (Sty) and emulsion copolymerization of vinyl acetate-butyl acrylate conducted in a semibatch stirred tank and a tubular pulsed sieve plate reactor, respectively. All NIR spectra were collected online with a transflectance probe immersed into the reaction medium. The spectral range used for the NIR monitoring was from 9 500 to 13 000 cm(-1), where the absorbance of the chemical components present is minimal and the changes in the NIR spectrum can be ascribed to the effects of light scattering by the polymer particles. Off-line measurements of the average diameter of the polymer particles by DLS were used as reference values for the development of the multi-variate NIR calibration models based on partial least squares. Results indicated that, in the spectral range studied, it is possible to monitor the evolution of the average size of the polymer particles during emulsion polymerization reactions. The inclusion of an additional spectral range, from 5 701 to 6 447 cm(-1), containing information on absorbances (""chemical information"") in the calibration models was also evaluated.

Collaboration intensity in the Brazilian supermarket retail chain

Purpose - This paper seeks to identify collaboration elements and evaluate their intensity in the Brazilian supermarket retail chain, especially the manufacturer-retailer channel. Design/methodology/approach - A structured questionnaire was elaborated and applied to 125 representatives from suppliers of large supermarket chains. Statistical methods including multivariate analysis were employed. Variables were grouped and composed into five indicators (joint actions, information sharing, interpersonal integration, gains and cost sharing, and strategic integration) to assess the degree of collaboration. Findings - The analyses showed that the interviewees considered interpersonal integration to be of greater importance to collaboration intensity than the other integration factors, such as gain or cost sharing or even strategic integration. Research limitations/implications - The research was conducted solely from the point of view of the industries that supply the large retail networks. The interviews were not conducted in pairs; that is, there was no application of one questionnaire to the retail network and another to the partner industry. Practical implications - Companies should invest in conducting periodic meetings with their partners to increase collaboration intensity, and should carry out technical visits to learn about their partners` logistic reality and thus make better operational decisions. Originality/value - The paper reveals which indicators produce greater collaboration intensity, and thus those that are more relevant to more efficient logistics management.