A meta-analysis of pigmentary characteristics, sun sensitivity, freckling and melanocytic nevi and risk of basal cell carcinoma of the skin

Objective: To calculate pooled risk estimates of the association between pigmentary characteristics and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) of the skin. Methods: We searched three electronic databases and reviewed the reference lists of the retrieved articles until July 2012 to identify eligible epidemiologic studies. Eligible studies were those published in between 1965 and July 2012 that permitted quantitative assessment of the association between histologically-confirmed BCC and any of the following characteristics: hair colour, eye colour, skin colour, skin phototype, tanning and burning ability, and presence of freckling or melanocytic nevi. We included 29 studies from 2236 initially identified. We calculated summary odds ratios (ORs) using weighted averages of the log OR, using random effects models. Results: We found strongest associations with red hair (OR 2.02; 95% CI: 1.68, 2.44), fair skin colour (OR 2.11; 95% CI: 1.56, 2.86), and having skin that burns and never tans (OR 2.03; 95% CI: 1.73, 2.38). All other factors had weaker but positive associations with BCC, with the exception of freckling of the face in adulthood which showed no association. Conclusions: Although most studies report risk estimates that are in the same direction, there is significant heterogeneity in the size of the estimates. The associations were quite modest and remarkably similar, with ORs between about 1.5 and 2.5 for the highest risk level for each factor. Given the public health impact of BCC, this meta-analysis will make a valuable contribution to our understanding of BCC.

Principal component and linkage analysis of cardiovascular risk traits in the Norfolk isolate

OBJECTIVE(S): An individual's risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) is influenced by genetic factors. This study focussed on mapping genetic loci for CVD-risk traits in a unique population isolate derived from Norfolk Island. METHODS: This investigation focussed on 377 individuals descended from the population founders. Principal component analysis was used to extract orthogonal components from 11 cardiovascular risk traits. Multipoint variance component methods were used to assess genome-wide linkage using SOLAR to the derived factors. A total of 285 of the 377 related individuals were informative for linkage analysis. RESULTS: A total of 4 principal components accounting for 83% of the total variance were derived. Principal component 1 was loaded with body size indicators; principal component 2 with body size, cholesterol and triglyceride levels; principal component 3 with the blood pressures; and principal component 4 with LDL-cholesterol and total cholesterol levels. Suggestive evidence of linkage for principal component 2 (h(2) = 0.35) was observed on chromosome 5q35 (LOD = 1.85; p = 0.0008). While peak regions on chromosome 10p11.2 (LOD = 1.27; p = 0.005) and 12q13 (LOD = 1.63; p = 0.003) were observed to segregate with principal components 1 (h(2) = 0.33) and 4 (h(2) = 0.42), respectively. CONCLUSION(S): This study investigated a number of CVD risk traits in a unique isolated population. Findings support the clustering of CVD risk traits and provide interesting evidence of a region on chromosome 5q35 segregating with weight, waist circumference, HDL-c and total triglyceride levels.

Case-control study on risk factors of esophageal cancer

Objective: To explore the influencing factors of esophageal cancer in the trunk basin of Dawen river , Shandong province. Methods: A case- control study was carried out: 195 living cases of diagnosed esophageal cancer and 195 controls were matched by age and sex and surveyed by a unified inventory. Results: T he following items could rises the risk of esophageal cancer : hard dry diet, smoke homemade cigarettes, alcohol consumption> 500 ml/ day, relatives with tumor in history ( OR = 51850, OR = 161 158, OR = 111 513, OR = 11 827, respectively ) . While drinking tea may have protective effect against esophageal cancer ( OR = 01 311). Conclusion: The high incidence of esophageal cancer in the area is relative not only to the environment and dietary factors, but also to the family history of esophageal cancer.

Risk compensation in construction workers' activities

Construction has been plagued with serious injuries and deaths for years. Although the technological advances have made the world safer and healthier, researchers have noted that some safety interventions, which had clear objective safety benefits, had failed to achieve the forecast savings in lives and injuries. The purpose of this study was to explore whether the construction workers show risk compensation and engage in greater risk taking when certain types of safety measures are implemented in the construction site. A case study approach was used to achieve the aim of this study. A typical construction site in Sydney was selected as the subject of the case study. Data were collected through direct observations, questionnaires and interviews. The findings confirm that workers show risk compensation behaviours in the construction environment. The risk compensation behaviours of workers varied with the level of experience and whether they have suffered from a past workplace injury. The findings of this study may offer a better understanding of workers’ behavioural patterns in construction environment and the effectiveness of safety interventions. The result of this study may provide supports for designing, implementing and evaluating safety interventions in construction site.

Child eating behaviour outcomes of an early feeding intervention to reduce risk indicators for child obesity : the NOURISH RCT

Objective Describe parent-reported child eating behaviour and maternal parenting impact outcomes of an infant feeding intervention to reduce child obesity risk. Design and Methods An assessor masked Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) with concealed allocation of individual mother-infant dyads. The NOURISH RCT enrolled 698 first-time mothers (mean age 30.1 years, SD=5.3) with healthy term infants (51% female) aged 4.3 months (SD=1.0) at baseline. Outcomes were assessed six months post-intervention when the children were 2-years old. Mothers reported on child eating behaviours using the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ), food preferences and dietary intake using a 24-hour telephone recall. Parenting was assessed using five scales validated for use in Australia. Results Intervention effects were evident on the CEBQ overall (MANOVA P=.002) and 4/8 subscales: child satiety responsiveness (P=.03), fussiness (P=.01), emotional overeating (P<.01), and food responsiveness (P=.06). Intervention children ‘liked’ more fruits (P<.01) and fewer non-core foods and beverages (Ps=.06, .03). The intervention mothers reported greater ‘autonomy encouragement’ (P=.002) Conclusions Anticipatory guidance on protective feeding practices appears to have modest positive impacts on child eating behaviours that are postulated to reduce future obesity risk.

Interventions to decrease skin cancer risk in outdoor workers : update to a 2007 systematic review

BACKGROUND: Outdoor workers are at high risk of harmful ultraviolet radiation exposure and are identified as an at risk group for the development of skin cancer. This systematic evidence based review provides an update to a previous review published in 2007 about interventions for the prevention of skin cancer in outdoor workers. RESULTS: This review includes interventions published between 2007-2012 and presents findings about sun protection behaviours and/or objective measures of skin cancer risk. Six papers met inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Large studies with extended follow-up times demonstrated the efficacy of educational and multi-component interventions to increase sun protection, with some higher use of personal protective equipment such as sunscreen. However, there is less evidence for the effectiveness of policy or specific intervention components. CONCLUSIONS: Further research aimed at improving overall attitudes towards sun protection in outdoor workers is needed to provide an overarching framework.

Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

Obesity and comorbid risk factors for cardiovascular disease among physically inactive patients with musculoskeletal disorders : a targeted intervention for this priority patient group is warranted

Introduction The benefits of physical activity are established and numerous; not the least of which is reduced risk of negative cardiovascular events. While sedentary lifestyles are having negative impacts across populations, people with musculoskeletal disorders may face additional challenges to becoming physically active. Unfortunately, interventions in ambulatory hospital clinics for people with musculoskeletal disorders primarily focus on their presenting musculoskeletal complaint with cursory attention given to lifestyle risk factors; including physical inactivity. This missed opportunity is likely to have both personal costs for patients and economic costs for downstream healthcare funders. Objectives The objective of this study was to investigate the presence of obesity, diabetes, diagnosed cardiac conditions, and previous stroke (CVA) among insufficiently physically active patients accessing (non-surgical) ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders to indicate whether a targeted risk-reducing intervention is warranted. Methods A sub-group analysis of patients (n=110) who self-reported undertaking insufficient physical activity level to meet national (Australian) minimum recommended guidelines was conducted. Responses to the Active Australia Survey were used to identify insufficiently active patients from a larger cohort study being undertaken across three (non-surgical) ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Outcomes of interest included body mass index, Type-II diabetes, diagnosed cardiac conditions, previous CVA and patients’ current health-related quality of life (Euroqol-5D). Results The mean (standard deviation) age of inactive patients was 56 (14) years. Body mass index values indicated that n=80 (73%) were overweight n=26 (24%), or obese n=45 (49%). In addition to their presenting condition, a substantial number of patients reported comorbid diabetes n=23 (21%), hypertension n=25 (23%) or an existing heart condition n=14 (13%); 4 (3%) had previously experienced a CVA as well as other comorbid conditions. Health-related quality of life was also substantially impacted, with a mean (standard deviation) multi-attribute utility score of 0.51 (0.32). Conclusion A range of health conditions and risk factors for further negative health events, including cardiovascular complications, consistent with physically inactive lifestyles were evident. A targeted risk-reducing intervention is warranted for this high risk clinical group.

Prevalence and visual risk factors for falls in bilateral cataract patients in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Purpose To determine the prevalence of falls in the 12 months prior to cataract surgery and examine the associations between visual and other risk factors and falls among older bilateral cataract patients in Vietnam. Methods Data collected from 413 patients in the week before scheduled cataract surgery included a questionnaire and three objective visual tests. Results The outcome of interest was self-reported falls in the previous 12 months. A total of 13% (n = 53) of bilateral cataract patients reported 60 falls within the previous 12 months. After adjusting for age, sex, race, employment status, comorbidities, medication usage, refractive management, living status and the three objective visual tests in the worse eye, women (odds ratio, OR, 4.64, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.85–11.66), and those who lived alone (OR 4.51, 95% CI 1.44–14.14) were at increased risk of a fall. Those who reported a comorbidity were at decreased risk of a fall (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.19–0.95). Contrast sensitivity (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.10–0.95) was the only significant visual test associated with a fall. These results were similar for the better eye, except the presence of a comorbidity was not significant (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.20–1.02). Again, contrast sensitivity was the only significant visual factor associated with a fall (OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.04–0.53). Conclusion Bilateral cataract patients in Vietnam are potentially at high risk of falls and in need of falls prevention interventions. It may also be important for ophthalmologists and health professionals to consider contrast sensitivity measures when prioritizing cataract patients for surgery and assessing their risk of falls.

Understanding causal relationships between the built and social environment, health and associated behaviours and risk factors

Introduction: Built environment interventions designed to reduce non-communicable diseases and health inequity, complement urban planning agendas focused on creating more ‘liveable’, compact, pedestrian-friendly, less automobile dependent and more socially inclusive cities.However, what constitutes a ‘liveable’ community is not well defined. Moreover, there appears to be a gap between the concept and delivery of ‘liveable’ communities. The recently funded NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence (CRE) in Healthy Liveable Communities established in early 2014, has defined ‘liveability’ from a social determinants of health perspective. Using purpose-designed multilevel longitudinal data sets, it addresses five themes that address key evidence-base gaps for building healthy and liveable communities. The CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities seeks to generate and exchange new knowledge about: 1) measurement of policy-relevant built environment features associated with leading non-communicable disease risk factors (physical activity, obesity) and health outcomes (cardiovascular disease, diabetes) and mental health; 2) causal relationships and thresholds for built environment interventions using data from longitudinal studies and natural experiments; 3) thresholds for built environment interventions; 4) economic benefits of built environment interventions designed to influence health and wellbeing outcomes; and 5) factors, tools, and interventions that facilitate the translation of research into policy and practice. This evidence is critical to inform future policy and practice in health, land use, and transport planning. Moreover, to ensure policy-relevance and facilitate research translation, the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities builds upon ongoing, and has established new, multi-sector collaborations with national and state policy-makers and practitioners. The symposium will commence with a brief introduction to embed the research within an Australian health and urban planning context, as well as providing an overall outline of the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities, its structure and team. Next, an overview of the five research themes will be presented. Following these presentations, the Discussant will consider the implications of the research and opportunities for translation and knowledge exchange. Theme 2 will establish whether and to what extent the neighbourhood environment (built and social) is causally related to physical and mental health and associated behaviours and risk factors. In particular, research conducted as part of this theme will use data from large-scale, longitudinal-multilevel studies (HABITAT, RESIDE, AusDiab) to examine relationships that meet causality criteria via statistical methods such as longitudinal mixed-effect and fixed-effect models, multilevel and structural equation models; analyse data on residential preferences to investigate confounding due to neighbourhood self-selection and to use measurement and analysis tools such as propensity score matching and ‘within-person’ change modelling to address confounding; analyse data about individual-level factors that might confound, mediate or modify relationships between the neighbourhood environment and health and well-being (e.g., psychosocial factors, knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, functional status), and; analyse data on both objective neighbourhood characteristics and residents’ perceptions of these objective features to more accurately assess the relative contribution of objective and perceptual factors to outcomes such as health and well-being, physical activity, active transport, obesity, and sedentary behaviour. At the completion of the Theme 2, we will have demonstrated and applied statistical methods appropriate for determining causality and generated evidence about causal relationships between the neighbourhood environment, health, and related outcomes. This will provide planners and policy makers with a more robust (valid and reliable) basis on which to design healthy communities.

Faster parameter estimation using risk-sensitive filters

In this paper, we propose a risk-sensitive approach to parameter estimation for hidden Markov models (HMMs). The parameter estimation approach considered exploits estimation of various functions of the state, based on model estimates. We propose certain practical suboptimal risk-sensitive filters to estimate the various functions of the state during transients, rather than optimal risk-neutral filters as in earlier studies. The estimates are asymptotically optimal, if asymptotically risk neutral, and can give significantly improved transient performance, which is a very desirable objective for certain engineering applications. To demonstrate the improvement in estimation simulation studies are presented that compare parameter estimation based on risk-sensitive filters with estimation based on risk-neutral filters.

Weight-related risk perception among healthy and overweight pregnant women: A cross-sectional study

Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate weight-related risk perception in early pregnancy and to compare this perception between women commencing pregnancy healthy weight and overweight. Study design Pregnant women (n=664) aged 29±5 (mean±s.d.) years were recruited from a metropolitan teaching hospital in Australia. A self-administered questionnaire was completed at around 16 weeks of gestation. Height measured at baseline and self-reported pre-pregnancy weight were used to calculate body mass index. Cross-sectional analysis was conducted. Differences between groups were assessed using chi-squared tests for categorical variables and t-tests or Mann–Whitney U tests for continuous variables depending on distribution. Result Excess gestational weight gain (GWG) during pregnancy was more important in leading to health problems for women or their child compared with pre-pregnancy weight. Personal risk perception for complications was low for all women, although overweight women had slightly higher scores than healthy-weight women (2.4±1.0 vs 2.9±1.0; P<0.001). All women perceived their risk for complications to be below that of an average pregnant woman. Conclusion Women should be informed of the risk associated with their pre-pregnancy weight (in the case of maternal overweight) and excess GWG. If efforts to raise risk awareness are to result in preventative action, this information needs to be accompanied by advice and appropriate support on how to reduce risk.

Common polygenic variation contributes to risk of migraine in the Norfolk Island population

Migraine has been defined as a common disabling primary headache disorder. Epidemiology studies have provided with the undeniable evidence of genetic components as active players in the development of the disease under a polygenic model in which multiple risk alleles exert modest individual effects. Our objective was to test the contribution of a polygenic effect to migraine risk in the Norfolk Island population using a panel of SNPs reported to be disease associated in published migraine GWAS. We also investigated whether individual SNPs were associated with gene expression levels measured in whole-blood. Polygenic scores were calculated in a total of 285 related individuals (74 cases, 211 controls) from the Norfolk Island using 51 SNPs previously reported to be associated with migraine in published GWAS. The association between polygenic score and migraine case-control status was tested using logistic regression. Results indicate that a migraine polygenic risk score was associated with migraine case-control status in this population (P=0.016). This supports the hypothesis that multiple SNPs with weak effects collectively contribute to migraine risk in this population. Amongst the SNPs included in the polygenic model, 4 were associated with the expression of the USMG5 gene, including rs171251 (P = 0.012). Results from this study provide evidence for a polygenic contribution to migraine risk in an isolated population and highlight specific SNPs that regulate the expression of USMG5, a gene critical for mitochondrial function.

Finnish HLA studies confirm the increased risk conferred by HLA-B27 homozygosity in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective: To determine the influence of HLA-B27 homozygosity and HLA-DRB1 alleles in the susceptibility to, and severity of, ankylosing spondylitis in a Finnish population. Methods: 673 individuals from 261 families with ankylosing spondylitis were genotyped for HLA-DRB1 alleles and HLA-B27 heterozygosity/ homozygosity. The frequencies of HLA-B27 homozygotes in probands from these families were compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes in controls under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). The effect of HLA-DRB1 alleles was assessed using a logistic regression procedure conditioned on HLA-B27 and case-control analysis. Results: HLA-B27 was detected in 93% of cases of ankylosing spondylitis. An overrepresentation of HLA-B27 homozygotes was noted in ankylosing spondylitis (11%) compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes under HWE (4%) (odds ratio (OR) = 3.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.6 to 6.8), p = 0.002). HLA-B27 homozygosity was marginally associated with reduced BASDAI (HLA-B27 homozygotes, 4.5 (1.6); HLA-B27 heterozygotes, 5.4 (1.8) (mean (SD)), p = 0.05). Acute anterior uveitis (AAU) was present in significantly more HLA-B27 positive cases (50%) than HLA-B27 negative cases (16%) (OR = 5.4 (1.7 to 17), p<0.004). HLA-B27 positive cases had a lower average age of symptom onset (26.7 (8.0) years) compared with HLA-B27 negative cases (35.7 (11.2) years) (p<0.0001). Conclusions: HLA-627 homozygosity is associated with a moderately increased risk of ankylosing spondylitis compared with HLA-β27 heterozygosity. HLA-B27 positive cases had an earlier age of onset of ankylosing spondylitis than HLA-B27 negative cases and were more likely to develop AAU. HLA-DRB1 alleles may influence the age of symptom onset of ankylosing spondylitis.

Novel risk loci for rheumatoid arthritis in Han Chinese and congruence with risk variants in Europeans

Objective To investigate differences in genetic risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Han Chinese as compared with Europeans. Methods A genome-wide association study was conducted in China with 952 patients and 943 controls, and 32 variants were followed up in 2,132 patients and 2,553 controls. A transpopulation meta-analysis with results from a large European RA study was also performed to compare the genetic architecture across the 2 ethnic remote populations. Results Three non-major histocompatibility complex (non-MHC) loci were identified at the genome-wide significance level, the effect sizes of which were larger in anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive patients than in ACPA-negative patients. These included 2 novel variants, rs12617656, located in an intron of DPP4 (odds ratio [OR] 1.56, P = 1.6 × 10 -21), and rs12379034, located in the coding region of CDK5RAP2 (OR 1.49, P = 1.1 × 10-16), as well as a variant at the known CCR6 locus, rs1854853 (OR 0.71, P = 6.5 × 10-15). The analysis of ACPA-positive patients versus ACPA-negative patients revealed that rs12617656 at the DPP4 locus showed a strong interaction effect with ACPAs (P = 5.3 × 10-18), and such an interaction was also observed for rs7748270 at the MHC locus (P = 5.9 × 10-8). The transpopulation meta-analysis showed genome-wide overlap and enrichment in association signals across the 2 populations, as confirmed by prediction analysis. Conclusion This study has expanded the list of alleles that confer risk of RA, provided new insight into the pathogenesis of RA, and added empirical evidence to the emerging polygenic nature of complex trait variation driven by common genetic variants. Copyright © 2014 by the American College of Rheumatology.