The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response1. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Climate–carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO2 emitted does not depend on the background CO2 concentration2; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions3, 4, 5; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO2 is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries3, 6, 7, 8. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon–climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0–2.1 °C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate–carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO2 emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate–carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate–carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO2-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

Wide ranging climate changes are expected in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century, but projections of the size of these changes vary widely across current global climate models. This variation represents a large source of uncertainty in our understanding of the evolution of Arctic climate. Here we systematically quantify and assess the model uncertainty in Arctic climate changes in two CO2 doubling experiments: a multimodel ensemble (CMIP3) and an ensemble constructed using a single model (HadCM3) with multiple parameter perturbations (THC-QUMP). These two ensembles allow us to assess the contribution that both structural and parameter variations across models make to the total uncertainty and to begin to attribute sources of uncertainty in projected changes. We find that parameter uncertainty is an major source of uncertainty in certain aspects of Arctic climate. But also that uncertainties in the mean climate state in the 20th century, most notably in the northward Atlantic ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice volume, are a significant source of uncertainty for projections of future Arctic change. We suggest that better observational constraints on these quantities will lead to significant improvements in the precision of projections of future Arctic climate change.

Estimates of aerosol radiative forcing from the MACC re-analysis

The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) provides an aerosol re-analysis starting from year 2003 for the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project. The re-analysis assimilates total aerosol optical depth retrieved by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to correct for model departures from observed aerosols. The reanalysis therefore combines satellite retrievals with the full spatial coverage of a numerical model. Re-analysed products are used here to estimate the shortwave direct and first indirect radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols over the period 2003–2010, using methods previously applied to satellite retrievals of aerosols and clouds. The best estimate of globally-averaged, all-sky direct radiative forcing is −0.7±0.3Wm−2. The standard deviation is obtained by a Monte-Carlo analysis of uncertainties, which accounts for uncertainties in the aerosol anthropogenic fraction, aerosol absorption, and cloudy-sky effects. Further accounting for differences between the present-day natural and pre-industrial aerosols provides a direct radiative forcing estimate of −0.4±0.3Wm−2. The best estimate of globally-averaged, all-sky first indirect radiative forcing is −0.6±0.4Wm−2. Its standard deviation accounts for uncertainties in the aerosol anthropogenic fraction, and in cloud albedo and cloud droplet number concentration susceptibilities to aerosol changes. The distribution of first indirect radiative forcing is asymmetric and is bounded by −0.1 and −2.0Wm−2. In order to decrease uncertainty ranges, better observational constraints on aerosol absorption and sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentrations to aerosol changes are required.

A review of measurement-based assessments of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing

Aerosols affect the Earth's energy budget directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and, thereby, affecting cloud properties. However, large uncertainties exist in current estimates of aerosol forcing because of incomplete knowledge concerning the distribution and the physical and chemical properties of aerosols as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. In recent years, a great deal of effort has gone into improving measurements and datasets. It is thus feasible to shift the estimates of aerosol forcing from largely model-based to increasingly measurement-based. Our goal is to assess current observational capabilities and identify uncertainties in the aerosol direct forcing through comparisons of different methods with independent sources of uncertainties. Here we assess the aerosol optical depth (τ), direct radiative effect (DRE) by natural and anthropogenic aerosols, and direct climate forcing (DCF) by anthropogenic aerosols, focusing on satellite and ground-based measurements supplemented by global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The multi-spectral MODIS measures global distributions of aerosol optical depth (τ) on a daily scale, with a high accuracy of ±0.03±0.05τ over ocean. The annual average τ is about 0.14 over global ocean, of which about 21%±7% is contributed by human activities, as estimated by MODIS fine-mode fraction. The multi-angle MISR derives an annual average AOD of 0.23 over global land with an uncertainty of ~20% or ±0.05. These high-accuracy aerosol products and broadband flux measurements from CERES make it feasible to obtain observational constraints for the aerosol direct effect, especially over global the ocean. A number of measurement-based approaches estimate the clear-sky DRE (on solar radiation) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) to be about -5.5±0.2 Wm-2 (median ± standard error from various methods) over the global ocean. Accounting for thin cirrus contamination of the satellite derived aerosol field will reduce the TOA DRE to -5.0 Wm-2. Because of a lack of measurements of aerosol absorption and difficulty in characterizing land surface reflection, estimates of DRE over land and at the ocean surface are currently realized through a combination of satellite retrievals, surface measurements, and model simulations, and are less constrained. Over the oceans the surface DRE is estimated to be -8.8±0.7 Wm-2. Over land, an integration of satellite retrievals and model simulations derives a DRE of -4.9±0.7 Wm-2 and -11.8±1.9 Wm-2 at the TOA and surface, respectively. CTM simulations derive a wide range of DRE estimates that on average are smaller than the measurement-based DRE by about 30-40%, even after accounting for thin cirrus and cloud contamination. A number of issues remain. Current estimates of the aerosol direct effect over land are poorly constrained. Uncertainties of DRE estimates are also larger on regional scales than on a global scale and large discrepancies exist between different approaches. The characterization of aerosol absorption and vertical distribution remains challenging. The aerosol direct effect in the thermal infrared range and in cloudy conditions remains relatively unexplored and quite uncertain, because of a lack of global systematic aerosol vertical profile measurements. A coordinated research strategy needs to be developed for integration and assimilation of satellite measurements into models to constrain model simulations. Enhanced measurement capabilities in the next few years and high-level scientific cooperation will further advance our knowledge.

Inferring the structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during the Maunder minimum using global thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic simulations

Observations of the Sun’s corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from 10Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities at Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

The imprint of the interaction between dark sectors in galaxy clusters

Based on perturbation theory, we study the dynamics of how dark matter and dark energy in the collapsing system approach dynamical equilibrium when they are in interaction. We find that the interaction between dark sectors cannot ensure the dark energy to fully cluster along with dark matter. When dark energy does not trace dark matter, we present a new treatment on studying the structure formation in the spherical collapsing system. Furthermore we examine the cluster number counts dependence on the interaction between dark sectors and analyze how dark energy inhomogeneities affect cluster abundances. It is shown that cluster number counts can provide specific signature of dark sectors interaction and dark energy inhomogeneities.

A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE ENERGY TRANSFER BETWEEN THE DARK SECTORS OF THE UNIVERSE

We study the mutual interaction between the dark sectors (dark matter and dark energy) of the Universe by resorting to the extended thermodynamics of irreversible processes and constrain the former with supernova type Ia data. As a by-product, the present dark matter temperature results are not extremely small and can meet the independent estimate of the temperature of the gas of sterile neutrinos.

Signature of the interaction between dark energy and dark matter in galaxy clusters

We investigate the influence of ail interaction between dark energy and dark matter upon the dynamics of galaxy clusters. We obtain file general Layser-Irvine equation in the presence of interactions, and find how, in that case. the virial theorem stands corrected. Using optical, X-ray and weak lensing data from 33 relaxed galaxy clusters, we put constraints on the strength of the coupling between the dark sectors. Available data Suggests that this coupling is small but positive, indicating that dark energy might be decaying into dark matter. Systematic effects between the several mass estimates, however, should be better known, before definitive conclusions oil the magnitude and significance of this coupling could be established. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Stability of the curvature perturbation in dark sectors` mutual interacting models

We consider perturbations in a cosmological model with a small coupling between dark energy and dark matter. We prove that the stability of the curvature perturbation depends on the type of coupling between dark sectors. When the dark energy is of quintessence type, if the coupling is proportional to the dark matter energy density, it will drive the instability in the curvature perturbations: however if the coupling is proportional to the energy density of dark energy, there is room for the stability in the curvature perturbations. When the dark energy is of phantom type, the perturbations are always stable, no matter whether the coupling is proportional to the one or the other energy density. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cosmic topology: a brief overview

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fine tuning in quintessence models with exponential potentials

We explore regions of parameter space in a simple exponential model of the form V = V0 e-λ(Q/Mp) that are allowed by observational constraints. We find that the level of fine tuning in these models is not different from more sophisticated models of dark energy. We study a transient regime where the parameter λ has to be less than √3 and the fixed point ΩQ = 1 has not been reached. All values of the parameter λ that lead to this transient regime are permitted. We also point out that this model can accelerate the universe today even for λ > √2, leading to a halt of the present acceleration of the universe in the future thus avoiding the horizon problem. We conclude that this model can not be discarded by current observations. © SISSA/ISAS 2002.

Signature of the scattering between dark sectors in large scale cosmic microwave background anisotropies

We study the interaction between dark sectors by considering the momentum transfer caused by the dark matter scattering elastically within the dark energy fluid. Describing the dark scattering analogy to the Thomson scattering which couples baryons and photons, we examine the impact of the dark scattering in CMB observations. Performing global fitting with the latest observational data, we find that for a dark energy equation of state w < -1, the CMB gives tight constraints on dark matter-dark energy elastic scattering. Assuming a dark matter particle of proton mass, we derive an elastic scattering cross section of sigma(D) < 3.295 x 10(-10)sigma(T) where sigma(T) is the cross section of Thomson scattering. For w > -1, however, the constraints are poor. For w = -1, sigma(D) can formally take any value.

Exact cosmological solutions of models with an interacting dark sector

In this work we extend the first order formalism for cosmological models that present an interaction between a fermionic and a scalar field. Cosmological exact solutions describing universes filled with interacting dark energy and dark matter have been obtained. Viable cosmological solutions with an early period of decelerated expansion followed by late acceleration have been found, notably one which presents a dark matter component dominating in the past and a dark energy component dominating in the future. In another one, the dark energy alone is the responsible for both periods, similar to a Chaplygin gas case. Exclusively accelerating solutions have also been obtained.

Holographic field theory models of dark energy in interaction with dark matter

We discuss two Lagrangian interacting dark energy models in the context of the holographic principle. The potentials of the interacting fields are constructed. The models are compared with CMB distance information, baryonic acoustic oscillations, lookback time and the Constitution supernovae sample. For both models, the results are consistent with a nonvanishing interaction in the dark sector of the Universe and the sign of coupling is consistent with dark energy decaying into dark matter, alleviating the coincidence problem-with more than 3 standard deviations of confidence for one of them. However, this is because the noninteracting holographic dark energy model is a bad fit to the combination of data sets used in this work as compared to the cosmological constant with cold dark matter model, so that one needs to introduce the interaction in order to improve this model.