Root niche separation can explain avoidance of seasonal drought stress and vulnerability of overstory trees to extended drought in a mature Amazonian forest

Large areas of Amazonian evergreen forest experience seasonal droughts extending for three or more months, yet show maximum rates of photosynthesis and evapotranspiration during dry intervals. This apparent resilience is belied by disproportionate mortality of the large trees in manipulations that reduce wet season rainfall, occurring after 2-3 years of treatment. The goal of this study is to characterize the mechanisms that produce these contrasting ecosystem responses. A mechanistic model is developed based on the ecohydrological framework of TIN (Triangulated Irregular Network)-based Real Time Integrated Basin Simulator + Vegetation Generator for Interactive Evolution (tRIBS+VEGGIE). The model is used to test the roles of deep roots and soil capillary flux to provide water to the forest during the dry season. Also examined is the importance of "root niche separation," in which roots of overstory trees extend to depth, where during the dry season they use water stored from wet season precipitation, while roots of understory trees are concentrated in shallow layers that access dry season precipitation directly. Observational data from the Tapajo's National Forest, Brazil, were used as meteorological forcing and provided comprehensive observational constraints on the model. Results strongly suggest that deep roots with root niche separation adaptations explain both the observed resilience during seasonal drought and the vulnerability of canopy-dominant trees to extended deficits of wet season rainfall. These mechanisms appear to provide an adaptive strategy that enhances productivity of the largest trees in the face of their disproportionate heat loads and water demand in the dry season. A sensitivity analysis exploring how wet season rainfall affects the stability of the rainforest system is presented. Citation: Ivanov, V. Y., L. R. Hutyra, S. C. Wofsy, J. W. Munger, S. R. Saleska, R. C. de Oliveira Jr., and P. B. de Camargo (2012), Root niche separation can explain avoidance of seasonal drought stress and vulnerability of overstory trees to extended drought in a mature Amazonian forest, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12507, doi:10.1029/2012WR011972.

THE ROLE OF DARK MATTER INTERACTION IN GALAXY CLUSTERS

We consider a toy del to analyze the consequences of dark matter interaction with a dark energy background on the overall rotation of galaxy clusters and the misalignment between their dark matter and baryon distributions when compared to ACDM predictions. The interaction parameters are found via a genetic algorithm search. The results obtained suggest that interaction is a basic phenomenon whose effects are detectable even in simple models of galactic dynamics.

Accretion of Mass and Angular Momentum onto The Discs of Spiral Galaxies

In this Thesis, we study the accretion of mass and angular momentum onto the disc of spiral galaxies from a global and a local perspective and comparing theory predictions with several observational data. First, we propose a method to measure the specific mass and radial growth rates of stellar discs, based on their star formation rate density profiles and we apply it to a sample of nearby spiral galaxies. We find a positive radial growth rate for almost all galaxies in our sample. Our galaxies grow in size, on average, at one third of the rate at which they grow in mass. Our results are in agreement with theoretical expectations if known scaling relations of disc galaxies are not evolving with time. We also propose a novel method to reconstruct accretion profiles and the local angular momentum of the accreting material from the observed structural and chemical properties of spiral galaxies. Applied to the Milky Way and to one external galaxy, our analysis indicates that accretion occurs at relatively large radii and has a local deficit of angular momentum with respect to the disc. Finally, we show how structure and kinematics of hot gaseous coronae, which are believed to be the source of mass and angular momentum of massive spiral galaxies, can be reconstructed from their angular momentum and entropy distributions. We find that isothermal models with cosmologically motivated angular momentum distributions are compatible with several independent observational constraints. We also consider more complex baroclinic equilibria: we describe a new parametrization for these states, a new self-similar family of solution and a method for reconstructing structure and kinematics from the joint angular momentum/entropy distribution.

Footprint of recycled water subsidies downwind of Lake Michigan

Continental evaporation is a significant and dynamic flux within the atmospheric water budget, but few methods provide robust observational constraints on the large-scale hydroclimatological and hydroecological impacts of this ‘recycled-water' flux. We demonstrate a geospatial analysis that provides such information, using stable isotope data to map the distribution of recycled water in shallow aquifers downwind from Lake Michigan. The δ2H and δ18O values of groundwater in the study region decrease from south to north, as expected based on meridional gradients in climate and precipitation isotope ratios. In contrast, deuterium excess (d = δ2H − 8 × δ18O) values exhibit a significant zonal gradient and finer-scale spatially patterned variation. Local d maxima occur in the northwest and southwest corners of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, where ‘lake-effect' precipitation events are abundant. We apply a published model that describes the effect of recycling from lakes on atmospheric vapor d values to estimate that up to 32% of recharge into individual aquifers may be derived from recycled Lake Michigan water. Applying the model to geostatistical surfaces representing mean d values, we estimate that between 10% and 18% of the vapor evaporated from Lake Michigan is re-precipitated within downwind areas of the Lake Michigan drainage basin. Our approach provides previously unavailable observational constraints on regional land-atmosphere water fluxes in the Great Lakes Basin and elucidates patterns in recycled-water fluxes that may influence the biogeography of the region. As new instruments and networks facilitate enhanced spatial monitoring of environmental water isotopes, similar analyses can be widely applied to calibrate and validate water cycle models and improve projections of regional hydroecological change involving the coupled lake-atmosphere-land system. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES12-00062.1

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments1 places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond2, 3, 4. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise5, ocean acidification6, 7 and net primary production on land8, 9. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies10, climate sensitivity11 and carbon cycle feedbacks12, 13 along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community14, 15, 16, 17 to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

The calculation of Afρ and mass loss rate for comets

Ab initio calculations of Afρ are presented using Mie scattering theory and a Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) dust outflow model in support of the Rosetta mission and its target 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (CG). These calculations are performed for particle sizes ranging from 0.010 μm to 1.0 cm. The present status of our knowledge of various differential particle size distributions is reviewed and a variety of particle size distributions is used to explore their effect on Afρ , and the dust mass production View the MathML sourcem˙. A new simple two parameter particle size distribution that curtails the effect of particles below 1 μm is developed. The contributions of all particle sizes are summed to get a resulting overall Afρ. The resultant Afρ could not easily be predicted a priori and turned out to be considerably more constraining regarding the mass loss rate than expected. It is found that a proper calculation of Afρ combined with a good Afρ measurement can constrain the dust/gas ratio in the coma of comets as well as other methods presently available. Phase curves of Afρ versus scattering angle are calculated and produce good agreement with observational data. The major conclusions of our calculations are: – The original definition of A in Afρ is problematical and Afρ should be: qsca(n,λ)×p(g)×f×ρqsca(n,λ)×p(g)×f×ρ. Nevertheless, we keep the present nomenclature of Afρ as a measured quantity for an ensemble of coma particles.– The ratio between Afρ and the dust mass loss rate View the MathML sourcem˙ is dominated by the particle size distribution. – For most particle size distributions presently in use, small particles in the range from 0.10 to 1.0 μm contribute a large fraction to Afρ. – Simplifying the calculation of Afρ by considering only large particles and approximating qsca does not represent a realistic model. Mie scattering theory or if necessary, more complex scattering calculations must be used. – For the commonly used particle size distribution, dn/da ∼ a−3.5 to a−4, there is a natural cut off in Afρ contribution for both small and large particles. – The scattering phase function must be taken into account for each particle size; otherwise the contribution of large particles can be over-estimated by a factor of 10. – Using an imaginary index of refraction of i = 0.10 does not produce sufficient backscattering to match observational data. – A mixture of dark particles with i ⩾ 0.10 and brighter silicate particles with i ⩽ 0.04 matches the observed phase curves quite well. – Using current observational constraints, we find the dust/gas mass-production ratio of CG at 1.3 AU is confined to a range of 0.03–0.5 with a reasonably likely value around 0.1.

On the nature of candidate luminous blue variables in M 33

Context. Luminous blue variables (LBVs) are a class of highly unstable stars that have been proposed to play a critical role in massive stellar evolution as well as being the progenitors of some of the most luminous supernovae known. However the physical processes underlying their characteristic instabilities are currently unknown. Aims. In order to provide observational constraints on this behaviour we have initiated a pilot study of the population of (candidate) LBVs in the Local Group galaxy M 33. Methods. To accomplish this we have obtained new spectra of 18 examples within M 33. These provide a baseline of ≥ 4 yr with respect to previous observations, which is well suited to identifying LBV outbursts. We also employed existing multi-epoch optical and mid-IR surveys of M 33 to further constrain the variability of the sample and search for the presence of dusty ejecta. Results. Combining the datasets reveals that spectroscopic and photometric variability appears common, although in the majority of cases further observations will be needed to distinguish between an origin for this behavour in short lived stochastic wind structure and low level photospheric pulsations or coherent long term LBV excursions. Of the known LBVs we report a hitherto unidentified excursion of M 33 Var C between 2001-5, while the transition of the WNLh star B517 to a cooler B supergiant phase between 1993−2010 implies an LBV classification. Proof-of-concept quantitative model atmosphere analysis is provided for Romano’s star; the resultant stellar parameters being consistent with the finding that the LBV excursions of this star are accompanied by changes in bolometric luminosity. The combination of temperature and luminosity of two stars, the BHG [HS80] 110A and the cool hypergiant B324, appear to be in violation of the empirical Humphreys-Davidson limit. Mid-IR observations demonstrate that a number of candidates appear associated with hot circumstellar dust, although no objects as extreme as η Car are identified. The combined dataset suggests that the criteria employed to identify candidate LBVs results in a heterogeneous sample, also containing stars demonstrating the B[e] phenomenon. Of these, a subset of optically faint, low luminosity stars associated with hot dust are of particular interest since they appear similar to the likely progenitor of SN 2008S and the 2008 NGC 300 transient (albeit suffering less intrinsic extinction). Conclusions. The results of such a multiwavelength observational approach, employing multiplexing spectrographs and supplemented with quantitative model atmosphere analysis, appears to show considerable promise in both identifying and characterising the physical properties of LBVs as well as other short lived phases of massive stellar evolution.

Stirring in 3-d spherical models of convection in the Earth's mantle

On a global scale basalts from mid-ocean ridges are strikingly more homogeneous than basalts from intraplate volcanism. The observed geochemical heterogeneity argues strongly for the existence of distinct reservoirs in the Earth's mantle. It is an unresolved problem of Geodynamics as to how these findings can be reconciled with large-scale convection. We review observational constraints, and investigate stirring properties of numerical models of mantle convection. Conditions in the early Earth may have supported layered convection with rapid stirring in the upper layers. Material that has been altered near the surface is transported downwards by small-scale convection. Thereby a layer of homogeneous depleted material develops above pristine mantle. As the mantle cools over Earth history, the effects leading to layering become reduced and models show the large-scale convection favoured for the Earth today. Laterally averaged, the upper mantle below the lithosphere is least affected by material that has experienced near-surface differentiation. The geochemical signature obtained during the previous episode of small-scale convection may be preserved there for the longest time. Additionally, stirring is less effective in the high viscosity layer of the central lower mantle [1, 2], supporting the survival of medium-scale heterogeneities there. These models are the first, using 3-d spherical geometry and mostly Earth-like parameters, to address the suggested change of convective style. Although the models are still far from reproducing our planet, we find that proposal might be helpful towards reconciling geochemical and geophysical constraints.

A simple approach to the supernova progenitor–explosion connection

We present a new approach to understand the landscape of supernova explosion energies, ejected nickel masses, and neutron star birth masses. In contrast to other recent parametric approaches, our model predicts the properties of neutrino-driven explosions based on the pre-collapse stellar structure without the need for hydrodynamic simulations. The model is based on physically motivated scaling laws and simple differential equations describing the shock propagation, the contraction of the neutron star, the neutrino emission, the heating conditions, and the explosion energetics. Using model parameters compatible with multi-D simulations and a fine grid of thousands of supernova progenitors, we obtain a variegated landscape of neutron star and black hole formation similar to other parametrized approaches and find good agreement with semi-empirical measures for the ‘explodability’ of massive stars. Our predicted explosion properties largely conform to observed correlations between the nickel mass and explosion energy. Accounting for the coexistence of outflows and downflows during the explosion phase, we naturally obtain a positive correlation between explosion energy and ejecta mass. These correlations are relatively robust against parameter variations, but our results suggest that there is considerable leeway in parametric models to widen or narrow the mass ranges for black hole and neutron star formation and to scale explosion energies up or down. Our model is currently limited to an all-or-nothing treatment of fallback and there remain some minor discrepancies between model predictions and observational constraints.

The Little Galaxies That Could Reionize the Universe

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.

Investigating the origin of radio emission from the intra-cluster bridge A399-A401

Radio bridges are a newly observed class of phenomena, they are large scale filamentary structures that span between pairs of clusters in a pre-merger phase. In my Thesis, starting from the observed synchrotron emission in the bridge A399-A401, I apply a Fermi I shock re-acceleration model under different conditions to the bridge. The purpose of my work is to check the likelihood of the above mentioned model. In particular the Inverse Compton emission that the model predicts is above the current observational constraints on Inverse Compton for the bridge A399-A401, this means that a Fermi I re-acceleration model is unlikely to describe the emission from the bridge, while a Fermi II turbulent re-acceleration model could still explain the origin of the emission in the bridge.

Embedding Starobinsky inflation in string compactifications

A period of accelerated expansion of the primordial universe, known as inflation, represents the standard paradigm for the early universe cosmology. While inflation agrees with observational constraints, a complete understanding of its physical origin is not available yet. This suggests the necessity of an embedding into a more fundamental theory. String theory is arguably the best-developed candidate for an ultra-violet (UV) complete theory of gravity and string compactifications could provide a natural framework for addressing this issue. The aim of this thesis work is to investigate the potential embedding of Starobinsky inflation in effective field theories arising in string compactifications. In particular, we focus on two main objectives. The first one is the evaluation of Yukawa-like couplings in f (R)-theories of gravity with fermions, more specifically in the context of Starobinsky inflation. The second goal is understanding if any of the moduli which naturally arise in string compactifications has the right form of this coupling and displays the correct scalar potential, as needed for a possible identification with the scalar field driving Starobinsky inflation.

Stellar mass loss from the Fornax dwarf spheroidal galaxy

Dwarf galaxies often experience gravitational interactions from more massive companions. These interactions can deform galaxies, turn star formation on or off, or give rise to mass loss phenomena. In this thesis work we propose to study, through N-body simulations, the stellar mass loss suffered by the dwarf spheroid galaxy (dSph) Fornax orbiting in the Milky Way gravitational potential. Which is a key phenomenon to explain the mass budget problem: the Fornax globular clusters together have a stellar mass comparable to that of Fornax itself. If we look at the stellar populations which they are made of and we apply the scenarios of stellar population formation we find that, originally, they must have been >= 5 times more massive. For this reason, they must have lost or ejected stars through dynamic interactions. However, as presented in Larsen et al (2012), field stars alone are not sufficient to explain this scenario. We may assume that some of those stars fell into Fornax, and later were stripped by Milky Way. In order to study this solution we built several illustrative single component simulations, with a tabulated density model using the P07ecc orbit studied from Battaglia et al (2015). To divide the single component into stellar and dark matter components we have defined a posterior the probability function P(E), where E is the initial energy distribution of the particles. By associating each particle with a fraction of stellar mass and dark matter. In this way we built stellar density profiles without repeating simulations. We applied the method to Fornax using the profile density tables obtained in Pascale et al (2018) as observational constraints and to build the model. The results confirm the results previously obtained with less flexible models by Battaglia et al (2015). They show a stellar mass loss < 4% within 1.6 kpc and negligible within 3 kpc, too small to solve the mass budget problem.

Observational and energetics constraints on the non-conservation of potential/Conservative Temperature and implications for ocean modelling

This paper seeks to elucidate the fundamental differences between the nonconservation of potential temperature and that of Conservative Temperature, in order to better understand the relative merits of each quantity for use as the heat variable in numerical ocean models. The main result is that potential temperature is found to behave similarly to entropy, in the sense that its nonconservation primarily reflects production/destruction by surface heat and freshwater fluxes; in contrast, the nonconservation of Conservative Temperature is found to reflect primarily the overall compressible work of expansion/contraction. This paper then shows how this can be exploited to constrain the nonconservation of potential temperature and entropy from observed surface heat fluxes, and the nonconservation of Conservative Temperature from published estimates of the mechanical energy budgets of ocean numerical models. Finally, the paper shows how to modify the evolution equation for potential temperature so that it is exactly equivalent to using an exactly conservative evolution equation for Conservative Temperature, as was recently recommended by IOC et al. (2010). This result should in principle allow ocean modellers to test the equivalence between the two formulations, and to indirectly investigate to what extent the budget of derived nonconservative quantities such as buoyancy and entropy can be expected to be accurately represented in ocean models.