The Politics of the "New North": Putting History and Geography at Stake in Arctic Futures

References to a “New North” have snowballed across popular media in the past 10 years. By invoking the phrase, scientists, policy analysts, journalists and others draw attention to the collision of global warming and global investment in the Arctic today and project a variety of futures for the region and the planet. While changes are apparent, the trope of a “New North” is not new. Discourses that appraised unfamiliar situations at the top of the world have recurred throughout the twentieth century. They have also accompanied attempts to cajole, conquer, civilize, consume, conserve and capitalize upon the far north. This article examines these politics of the “New North” by critically reading “New North” texts from the North American Arctic between 1910 and 2010. In each case, appeals to novelty drew from evaluations of the historical record and assessments of the Arctic’s shifting position in global affairs. “New North” authors pinpointed the ways science, state power, capital and technology transformed northern landscapes at different moments in time. They also licensed political and corporate influence in the region by delimiting the colonial legacies already apparent there. Given these tendencies, scholars need to approach the most recent iteration of the “New North” carefully without concealing or repeating the most troubling aspects of the Arctic’s past.

(Table 2) Survivorship of transplanted seedlings of Picea glauca inside and outside three tree islands in 1994, 1995, 2009 and after 15 years

The northern boundary of boreal forest and the ranges of tree species are expected to shift northward in response to climate warming, which will result in a decrease in the albedo of areas currently covered by tundra vegetation, an increase in terrestrial carbon sequestration, and an alteration of biodiversity in the current Low Arctic. Central to the prediction of forest expansion is an increase in the reproductive capacity and establishment of individual trees. We assessed cone production, seed viability, and transplanted seedling success of Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss. (white spruce) in the early 1990s and again in the late 2000s at four forest stand sites and eight tree island sites (clonal populations beyond present treeline) in the Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Over the past 20 years, average temperatures in this region have increased by 0.9 °C. This area has the northernmost forest-tundra ecotone in North America and is one of the few circumpolar regions where the northern limit of conifer trees reaches the Arctic Ocean. We found that cone production and seed viability did not change between the two periods of examination and that both variables decreased northward across the forest-tundra ecotone. Nevertheless, white spruce individuals at the northern limit of the forest-tundra ecotone produced viable seeds. Furthermore, transplanted seedlings were able to survive in the northernmost sites for 15 years, but there were no signs of natural regeneration. These results indicate that if climatic conditions continue to ameliorate, reproductive output will likely increase, but seedling establishment and forest expansion within the forest-tundra of this region is unlikely to occur without the availability of suitable recruitment sites. Processes that affect the availability of recruitment sites are likely to be important elsewhere in the circumpolar ecotone, and should be incorporated into models and predictions of climate change and its effects on the northern forest-tundra ecotone.

Caribou observations on Queen Elizabeth Islands (Tab. 1 + 2)

The numbers and distributions of Peary caribou (Rangiier tarandus pearyi) on western Queen Elizabeth Islands, Northwest Territories were determined by aerial surveys based on a standard census strip method. Surveys were flown in March-April and July-August periods in 1972, 1973, and 1974. Comparison of the 1973 and 1974 survevs with those results of a comparable survey in 1961 showed an overall decline of 89% in numbers of caribou between 1961 and 1974. Percentage reduction of caribou numbers from 1961 to 1874 followed a west-cast gradient on the three major islands: Prince Patrick 72%, Melville 87% , and Bathurst 92%. The marked decrease in numbers of caribou is attributed to a combination of high winter mortality in some years and an overall low rate of births and recruitment from 1961 to 1974.

Age determinations of sediment cores from the Baffin Shelf

Cores HU82-034-057 and HU84-035-008, Resolution Basin, SE Baffin Shelf, contain 200 and 450 cm, respectively, of sediment that spans the Younger Dryas chron. In both cores the interval is bracketed by 14C dates on foraminifera or molluscs. These sites were close to the margin of the late Wisconsin (Foxe) ice sheet as it flowed toward the Labrador Sea. Prior to 11 ka, both cores record moderate to high accumulations of foraminifera, relatively high del 18O values in planktonic foraminifera, and low values of detrital carbonate. The diatom and percent opal records imply occasional seasonally open water conditions. During part of the Younger Dryas chron both the diatom and opal analyses imply a shutoff of biogenic silica production, suggesting surface water conditions affected by increased sea ice and/or reduced nutrients. In addition, the Younger Dryas interval is marked by an increase in coarse sand and detrital carbonate, a decrease in total organic carbon and foraminifera, and high rates of sediment accumulation. The inferred environment during the Younger Dryas is ice-proximal. In HU82-034-057, the foraminifera and other data suggest a change in conditions during the middle part of the Younger Dryas chron.

(Table 1) Mean temperatures in january and july, and total annual snowfall at Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake, Canada

The sensitivity of brightness temperature (T(B)) at 6.9, 10.7, and 18.7 GHz from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) observations is investigated over five winter seasons (2002-2007) on Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada. The T(B) measurements are compared to ice thicknesses obtained with a previously validated thermodynamic lake ice model. Lake ice thickness is found to explain much of the increase of T(B) at 10.7 and 18.7 GHz. T(B) acquired at 18.7 GHz (V-pol) and 10.7 GHz (H-pol) shows the strongest relation with simulated lake ice thickness over the period of study (R**2 > 0.90). A comparison of the seasonal evolution of T(B) for a cold winter (2003-2004) and a warm winter (2005-2006) reveals that the relationship between T(B) and ice growth is stronger in the cold winter (2003-2004). Overall, this letter shows the high sensitivity of T(B) to ice growth and, thus, the potential of AMSR-E mid-frequency channels to estimate ice thickness on large northern lakes.

Microbiological investigations of the Canadian tundra

Microbial communities were analyzed at 17 sites visited during the expedition Tundra Northwest 1999 (TNW-99) by microscopic analyses (epifluorescence microscopy and image analyses). The data were used to describe the communities of bacteria, fungi and algae in detail by number, biovolume and biomass. Great variability was found, which could be related to organic matter content of soils and features of vegetation patterns. The amounts (numbers and abundance) of organisms and data on microbial biomass are discussed in relation to other polar environments of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.