Log-ratio of silica to aluminium counts (ln(Si/Al)) from ODP site 108-658

Growing evidence suggests that the low atmospheric CO2 concentration of the ice ages resulted from enhanced storage of CO2 in the ocean interior, largely as a result of changes in the Southern Ocean1. Early in the most recent deglaciation, a reduction in North Atlantic overturning circulation seems to have driven CO2 release from the Southern Ocean**2, 3, 4, 5, but the mechanism connecting the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean remains unclear. Biogenic opal export in the low-latitude ocean relies on silicate from the underlying thermocline, the concentration of which is affected by the circulation of the ocean interior. Here we report a record of biogenic opal export from a coastal upwelling system off the coast of northwest Africa that shows pronounced opal maxima during each glacial termination over the past 550,000 years. These opal peaks are consistent with a strong deglacial reduction in the formation of silicate-poor glacial North Atlantic intermediate water**2 (GNAIW). The loss of GNAIW allowed mixing with underlying silicate-rich deep water to increase the silicate supply to the surface ocean. An increase in westerly-wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean in response to the North Atlantic change has been proposed to drive the deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2 (refs 3, 4). However, such a circulation change would have accelerated the formation of Antarctic intermediate water and sub-Antarctic mode water, which today have as little silicate as North Atlantic Deep Water and would have thus maintained low silicate concentrations in the Atlantic thermocline. The deglacial opal maxima reported here suggest an alternative mechanism for the deglacial CO2 release**5, 6. Just as the reduction in GNAIW led to upward silicate transport, it should also have allowed the downward mixing of warm, low-density surface water to reach into the deep ocean. The resulting decrease in the density of the deep Atlantic relative to the Southern Ocean surface promoted Antarctic overturning, which released CO2 to the atmosphere.

Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability p in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator pˆ , its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters a and b for pˆ

p , respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as p→0, and which guarantee that, for any p∈(0,1), the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, r, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown p. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when a/b does not deviate too much from 1, and asymptotically minimax as r→∞ when a=b.

Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability $p$ in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator $\hatvap$, its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters $a$ and $b$ for $\hatvap < p$ and $\hatvap > p$ respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as $p \rightarrow 0$, and which guarantee that, for any $p \in (0,1)$, the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, $\nnum$, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown $p$. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when $a/b$ does not deviate too much from $1$, and asymptotically minimax as $\nnum \rightarrow \infty$ when $a=b$.

Quantitative analysis of senile plaques in Alzheimer disease: observation of log-normal size distribution and molecular epidemiology of differences associated with apolipoprotein E genotype and trisomy 21 (Down syndrome).

The discovery that the epsilon 4 allele of the apolipoprotein E (apoE) gene is a putative risk factor for Alzheimer disease (AD) in the general population has highlighted the role of genetic influences in this extremely common and disabling illness. It has long been recognized that another genetic abnormality, trisomy 21 (Down syndrome), is associated with early and severe development of AD neuropathological lesions. It remains a challenge, however, to understand how these facts relate to the pathological changes in the brains of AD patients. We used computerized image analysis to examine the size distribution of one of the characteristic neuropathological lesions in AD, deposits of A beta peptide in senile plaques (SPs). Surprisingly, we find that a log-normal distribution fits the SP size distribution quite well, motivating a porous model of SP morphogenesis. We then analyzed SP size distribution curves in genotypically defined subgroups of AD patients. The data demonstrate that both apoE epsilon 4/AD and trisomy 21/AD lead to increased amyloid deposition, but by apparently different mechanisms. The size distribution curve is shifted toward larger plaques in trisomy 21/AD, probably reflecting increased A beta production. In apoE epsilon 4/AD, the size distribution is unchanged but the number of SP is increased compared to apoE epsilon 3, suggesting increased probability of SP initiation. These results demonstrate that subgroups of AD patients defined on the basis of molecular characteristics have quantitatively different neuropathological phenotypes.

3D models created from ROV videos and their corresponding subtransect dimensions

Underwater video transects have become a common tool for quantitative analysis of the seafloor. However a major difficulty remains in the accurate determination of the area surveyed as underwater navigation can be unreliable and image scaling does not always compensate for distortions due to perspective and topography. Depending on the camera set-up and available instruments, different methods of surface measurement are applied, which make it difficult to compare data obtained by different vehicles. 3-D modelling of the seafloor based on 2-D video data and a reference scale can be used to compute subtransect dimensions. Focussing on the length of the subtransect, the data obtained from 3-D models created with the software PhotoModeler Scanner are compared with those determined from underwater acoustic positioning (ultra short baseline, USBL) and bottom tracking (Doppler velocity log, DVL). 3-D model building and scaling was successfully conducted on all three tested set-ups and the distortion of the reference scales due to substrate roughness was identified as the main source of imprecision. Acoustic positioning was generally inaccurate and bottom tracking unreliable on rough terrain. Subtransect lengths assessed with PhotoModeler were on average 20% longer than those derived from acoustic positioning due to the higher spatial resolution and the inclusion of slope. On a high relief wall bottom tracking and 3-D modelling yielded similar results. At present, 3-D modelling is the most powerful, albeit the most time-consuming, method for accurate determination of video subtransect dimensions.

Hemlock stump. Birch log. September 25th." With notes

[From Jasper Cropsey Sketch book, 1855-1856]

One of the last log homes left standing in Barry County

verso: on M.43, about 4 miles west of Hastings. Demolished during the 1920s