Computational Methods for Identification of Vibrating Structures

System identification deals with the problem of building mathematical models of dynamical systems based on observed data from the system" [1]. In the context of civil engineering, the system refers to a large scale structure such as a building, bridge, or an offshore structure, and identification mostly involves the determination of modal parameters (the natural frequencies, damping ratios, and mode shapes). This paper presents some modal identification results obtained using a state-of-the-art time domain system identification method (data-driven stochastic subspace algorithms [2]) applied to the output-only data measured in a steel arch bridge. First, a three dimensional finite element model was developed for the numerical analysis of the structure using ANSYS. Modal analysis was carried out and modal parameters were extracted in the frequency range of interest, 0-10 Hz. The results obtained from the finite element modal analysis were used to determine the location of the sensors. After that, ambient vibration tests were conducted during April 23-24, 2009. The response of the structure was measured using eight accelerometers. Two stations of three sensors were formed (triaxial stations). These sensors were held stationary for reference during the test. The two remaining sensors were placed at the different measurement points along the bridge deck, in which only vertical and transversal measurements were conducted (biaxial stations). Point estimate and interval estimate have been carried out in the state space model using these ambient vibration measurements. In the case of parametric models (like state space), the dynamic behaviour of a system is described using mathematical models. Then, mathematical relationships can be established between modal parameters and estimated point parameters (thus, it is common to use experimental modal analysis as a synonym for system identification). Stable modal parameters are found using a stabilization diagram. Furthermore, this paper proposes a method for assessing the precision of estimates of the parameters of state-space models (confidence interval). This approach employs the nonparametric bootstrap procedure [3] and is applied to subspace parameter estimation algorithm. Using bootstrap results, a plot similar to a stabilization diagram is developed. These graphics differentiate system modes from spurious noise modes for a given order system. Additionally, using the modal assurance criterion, the experimental modes obtained have been compared with those evaluated from a finite element analysis. A quite good agreement between numerical and experimental results is observed.

Small sample confidence intervals for the mean of a positively skewed distribution

This thesis proposes some confidence intervals for the mean of a positively skewed distribution. The following confidence intervals are considered: Student-t, Johnson-t, median-t, mad-t, bootstrap-t, BCA, T1 , T3 and six new confidence intervals, the median bootstrap-t, mad bootstrap-t, median T1, mad T1 , median T3 and the mad T3. A simulation study has been conducted and average widths, coefficient of variation of widths, and coverage probabilities were recorded and compared across confidence intervals. To compare confidence intervals, the width and coverage probabilities were compared so that smaller widths indicated a better confidence interval when coverage probabilities were the same. Results showed that the median T1 and median T3 outperformed other confidence intervals in terms of coverage probability and the mad bootstrap-t, mad-t, and mad T3 outperformed others in terms of width. Some real life data are considered to illustrate the findings of the thesis.

Essays on Microeconometrics

My dissertation has three chapters which develop and apply microeconometric tech- niques to empirically relevant problems. All the chapters examines the robustness issues (e.g., measurement error and model misspecification) in the econometric anal- ysis. The first chapter studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treat- ment variable is mismeasured and endogenous. I characterize the sharp identified set for the local average treatment effect under the following two assumptions: (1) the exclusion restriction of an instrument and (2) deterministic monotonicity of the true treatment variable in the instrument. The identification strategy allows for general measurement error. Notably, (i) the measurement error is nonclassical, (ii) it can be endogenous, and (iii) no assumptions are imposed on the marginal distribution of the measurement error, so that I do not need to assume the accuracy of the measure- ment. Based on the partial identification result, I provide a consistent confidence interval for the local average treatment effect with uniformly valid size control. I also show that the identification strategy can incorporate repeated measurements to narrow the identified set, even if the repeated measurements themselves are endoge- nous. Using the the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, I demonstrate that my new methodology can produce nontrivial bounds for the return to college attendance when attendance is mismeasured and endogenous.

The second chapter, which is a part of a coauthored project with Federico Bugni, considers the problem of inference in dynamic discrete choice problems when the structural model is locally misspecified. We consider two popular classes of estimators for dynamic discrete choice models: K-step maximum likelihood estimators (K-ML) and K-step minimum distance estimators (K-MD), where K denotes the number of policy iterations employed in the estimation problem. These estimator classes include popular estimators such as Rust (1987)’s nested fixed point estimator, Hotz and Miller (1993)’s conditional choice probability estimator, Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002)’s nested algorithm estimator, and Pesendorfer and Schmidt-Dengler (2008)’s least squares estimator. We derive and compare the asymptotic distributions of K- ML and K-MD estimators when the model is arbitrarily locally misspecified and we obtain three main results. In the absence of misspecification, Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002) show that all K-ML estimators are asymptotically equivalent regardless of the choice of K. Our first result shows that this finding extends to a locally misspecified model, regardless of the degree of local misspecification. As a second result, we show that an analogous result holds for all K-MD estimators, i.e., all K- MD estimator are asymptotically equivalent regardless of the choice of K. Our third and final result is to compare K-MD and K-ML estimators in terms of asymptotic mean squared error. Under local misspecification, the optimally weighted K-MD estimator depends on the unknown asymptotic bias and is no longer feasible. In turn, feasible K-MD estimators could have an asymptotic mean squared error that is higher or lower than that of the K-ML estimators. To demonstrate the relevance of our asymptotic analysis, we illustrate our findings using in a simulation exercise based on a misspecified version of Rust (1987) bus engine problem.

The last chapter investigates the causal effect of the Omnibus Budget Reconcil- iation Act of 1993, which caused the biggest change to the EITC in its history, on unemployment and labor force participation among single mothers. Unemployment and labor force participation are difficult to define for a few reasons, for example, be- cause of marginally attached workers. Instead of searching for the unique definition for each of these two concepts, this chapter bounds unemployment and labor force participation by observable variables and, as a result, considers various competing definitions of these two concepts simultaneously. This bounding strategy leads to partial identification of the treatment effect. The inference results depend on the construction of the bounds, but they imply positive effect on labor force participa- tion and negligible effect on unemployment. The results imply that the difference- in-difference result based on the BLS definition of unemployment can be misleading

due to misclassification of unemployment.

The Burden Of Eclampsia: Results From A Multicenter Study On Surveillance Of Severe Maternal Morbidity In Brazil.

Maternal mortality (MM) is a core indicator of disparities in women's rights. The study of Near Miss cases is strategic to identifying the breakdowns in obstetrical care. In absolute numbers, both MM and occurrence of eclampsia are rare events. We aim to assess the obstetric care indicators and main predictors for severe maternal outcome from eclampsia (SMO: maternal death plus maternal near miss). Secondary analysis of a multicenter, cross-sectional study, including 27 centers from all geographic regions of Brazil, from 2009 to 2010. 426 cases of eclampsia were identified and classified according to the outcomes: SMO and non-SMO. We classified facilities as coming from low- and high-income regions and calculated the WHO's obstetric health indicators. SPSS and Stata softwares were used to calculate the prevalence ratios (PR) and respective 95% confidence interval (CI) to assess maternal characteristics, clinical and obstetrical history, and access to health services as predictors for SMO, subsequently correlating them with the corresponding perinatal outcomes, also applying multiple regression analysis (adjusted for cluster effect). Prevalence of and mortality indexes for eclampsia in higher and lower income regions were 0.2%/0.8% and 8.1%/22%, respectively. Difficulties in access to health care showed that ICU admission (adjPR 3.61; 95% CI 1.77-7.35) and inadequate monitoring (adjPR 2.31; 95% CI 1.48-3.59) were associated with SMO. Morbidity and mortality associated with eclampsia were high in Brazil, especially in lower income regions. Promoting quality maternal health care and improving the availability of obstetric emergency care are essential actions to relieve the burden of eclampsia.

Genetic Predictors Of Long-term Response To Growth Hormone (gh) Therapy In Children With Gh Deficiency And Turner Syndrome: The Influence Of A Socs2 Polymorphism.

There is great interindividual variability in the response to GH therapy. Ascertaining genetic factors can improve the accuracy of growth response predictions. Suppressor of cytokine signaling (SOCS)-2 is an intracellular negative regulator of GH receptor (GHR) signaling. The objective of the study was to assess the influence of a SOCS2 polymorphism (rs3782415) and its interactive effect with GHR exon 3 and -202 A/C IGFBP3 (rs2854744) polymorphisms on adult height of patients treated with recombinant human GH (rhGH). Genotypes were correlated with adult height data of 65 Turner syndrome (TS) and 47 GH deficiency (GHD) patients treated with rhGH, by multiple linear regressions. Generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction was used to evaluate gene-gene interactions. Baseline clinical data were indistinguishable among patients with different genotypes. Adult height SD scores of patients with at least one SOCS2 single-nucleotide polymorphism rs3782415-C were 0.7 higher than those homozygous for the T allele (P < .001). SOCS2 (P = .003), GHR-exon 3 (P= .016) and -202 A/C IGFBP3 (P = .013) polymorphisms, together with clinical factors accounted for 58% of the variability in adult height and 82% of the total height SD score gain. Patients harboring any two negative genotypes in these three different loci (homozygosity for SOCS2 T allele; the GHR exon 3 full-length allele and/or the -202C-IGFBP3 allele) were more likely to achieve an adult height at the lower quartile (odds ratio of 13.3; 95% confidence interval of 3.2-54.2, P = .0001). The SOCS2 polymorphism (rs3782415) has an influence on the adult height of children with TS and GHD after long-term rhGH therapy. Polymorphisms located in GHR, IGFBP3, and SOCS2 loci have an influence on the growth outcomes of TS and GHD patients treated with rhGH. The use of these genetic markers could identify among rhGH-treated patients those who are genetically predisposed to have less favorable outcomes.

What Is The Best Indication For Single-incision Ophira Mini Sling? Insights From A 2-year Follow-up International Multicentric Study.

The Ophira Mini Sling System involves anchoring a midurethral, low-tension tape to the obturator internus muscles bilaterally at the level of the tendinous arc. Success rates in different subsets of patients are still to be defined. This work aims to identify which factors influence the 2-year outcomes of this treatment. Analysis was based on data from a multicenter study. Endpoints for analysis included objective measurements: 1-h pad-weight (PWT), and cough stress test (CST), and questionnaires: International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Short Form (ICIQ-SF) and Urinary Distress Inventory (UDI)-6. A logistic regression analysis evaluated possible risk factors for failure. In all, 124 female patients with stress urinary incontinence (SUI) underwent treatment with the Ophira procedure. All patients completed 1 year of follow-up, and 95 complied with the 2-year evaluation. Longitudinal analysis showed no significant differences between results at 1 and 2 years. The 2-year overall objective results were 81 (85.3%) patients dry, six (6.3%) improved, and eight (8.4%) incontinent. A multivariate analysis revealed that previous anti-incontinence surgery was the only factor that significantly influenced surgical outcomes. Two years after treatment, women with previous failed surgeries had an odds ratio (OR) for treatment failure (based on PWT) of 4.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-15.57). The Ophira procedure is an effective option for SUI treatment, with durable good results. Previous surgeries were identified as the only significant risk factor, though previously operated patients showed an acceptable success rate.

Impact Of Pharmacist Interventions On Drug-related Problems And Laboratory Markers In Outpatients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection.

Substantial complexity has been introduced into treatment regimens for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Many drug-related problems (DRPs) are detected in these patients, such as low adherence, therapeutic inefficacy, and safety issues. We evaluated the impact of pharmacist interventions on CD4+ T-lymphocyte count, HIV viral load, and DRPs in patients with HIV infection. In this 18-month prospective controlled study, 90 outpatients were selected by convenience sampling from the Hospital Dia-University of Campinas Teaching Hospital (Brazil). Forty-five patients comprised the pharmacist intervention group and 45 the control group; all patients had HIV infection with or without acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Pharmaceutical appointments were conducted based on the Pharmacotherapy Workup method, although DRPs and pharmacist intervention classifications were modified for applicability to institutional service limitations and research requirements. Pharmacist interventions were performed immediately after detection of DRPs. The main outcome measures were DRPs, CD4+ T-lymphocyte count, and HIV viral load. After pharmacist intervention, DRPs decreased from 5.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] =4.1-6.2) to 4.2 (95% CI =3.3-5.1) per patient (P=0.043). A total of 122 pharmacist interventions were proposed, with an average of 2.7 interventions per patient. All the pharmacist interventions were accepted by physicians, and among patients, the interventions were well accepted during the appointments, but compliance with the interventions was not measured. A statistically significant increase in CD4+ T-lymphocyte count in the intervention group was found (260.7 cells/mm(3) [95% CI =175.8-345.6] to 312.0 cells/mm(3) [95% CI =23.5-40.6], P=0.015), which was not observed in the control group. There was no statistical difference between the groups regarding HIV viral load. This study suggests that pharmacist interventions in patients with HIV infection can cause an increase in CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts and a decrease in DRPs, demonstrating the importance of an optimal pharmaceutical care plan.

Propylthiouracil Quantification In Human Plasma By High-performance Liquid Chromatography Coupled With Electrospray Tandem Mass Spectrometry: Application In A Bioequivalence Study.

A rapid, sensitive and specific method for quantifying propylthiouracil in human plasma using methylthiouracil as the internal standard (IS) is described. The analyte and the IS were extracted from plasma by liquid-liquid extraction using an organic solvent (ethyl acetate). The extracts were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) in negative mode (ES-). Chromatography was performed using a Phenomenex Gemini C18 5μm analytical column (4.6mm×150mm i.d.) and a mobile phase consisting of methanol/water/acetonitrile (40/40/20, v/v/v)+0.1% of formic acid. For propylthiouracil and I.S., the optimized parameters of the declustering potential, collision energy and collision exit potential were -60 (V), -26 (eV) and -5 (V), respectively. The method had a chromatographic run time of 2.5min and a linear calibration curve over the range 20-5000ng/mL. The limit of quantification was 20ng/mL. The stability tests indicated no significant degradation. This HPLC-MS/MS procedure was used to assess the bioequivalence of two propylthiouracil 100mg tablet formulations in healthy volunteers of both sexes in fasted and fed state. The geometric mean and 90% confidence interval CI of Test/Reference percent ratios were, without and with food, respectively: 109.28% (103.63-115.25%) and 115.60% (109.03-122.58%) for Cmax, 103.31% (100.74-105.96%) and 103.40% (101.03-105.84) for AUClast. This method offers advantages over those previously reported, in terms of both a simple liquid-liquid extraction without clean-up procedures, as well as a faster run time (2.5min). The LOQ of 20ng/mL is well suited for pharmacokinetic studies. The assay performance results indicate that the method is precise and accurate enough for the routine determination of the propylthiouracil in human plasma. The test formulation with and without food was bioequivalent to reference formulation. Food administration increased the Tmax and decreased the bioavailability (Cmax and AUC).

Falls Among The Elderly: Risk Factors In A Population-based Study.

The aim of the present study was to identify factors associated with the occurrence of falls among elderly adults in a population-based study (ISACamp 2008). A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out with two-stage cluster sampling. The sample was composed of 1,520 elderly adults living in the urban area of the city of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil. The occurrence of falls was analyzed based on reports of the main accident occurred in the previous 12 months. Data on socioeconomic/demographic factors and adverse health conditions were tested for possible associations with the outcome. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated and adjusted for gender and age using the Poisson multiple regression analysis. Falls were more frequent, after adjustment for gender and age, among female elderly participants (PR = 2.39; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.47 - 3.87), elderly adults (80 years old and older) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.61 - 3.88), widowed (PR = 1.74; 95% CI 1.04 - 2.89) and among elderly adults who had rheumatism/arthritis/arthrosis (PR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.00 - 2.48), osteoporosis (PR = 1.71; 95% CI 1.18 - 2.49), asthma/bronchitis/emphysema (PR = 1,73; 95% CI 1.09 - 2.74), headache (PR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.07 - 2.38), mental common disorder (PR = 1.72; 95% CI 1.12 - 2.64), dizziness (PR = 2.82; 95% CI 1.98 - 4.02), insomnia (PR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.16 - 2.65), use of multiple medications (five or more) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.12 - 5.56) and use of cane/walker (PR = 2.16; 95% CI 1.19 - 3,93). The present study shows segments of the elderly population who are more prone to falls through the identification of factors associated with this outcome. The findings can contribute to the planning of public health policies and programs addressed to the prevention of falls.

Myocardial Extracellular Volume Expansion And The Risk Of Recurrent Atrial Fibrillation After Pulmonary Vein Isolation.

This study tested whether myocardial extracellular volume (ECV) is increased in patients with hypertension and atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing pulmonary vein isolation and whether there is an association between ECV and post-procedural recurrence of AF. Hypertension is associated with myocardial fibrosis, an increase in ECV, and AF. Data linking these findings are limited. T1 measurements pre-contrast and post-contrast in a cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) study provide a method for quantification of ECV. Consecutive patients with hypertension and recurrent AF referred for pulmonary vein isolation underwent a contrast CMR study with measurement of ECV and were followed up prospectively for a median of 18 months. The endpoint of interest was late recurrence of AF. Patients had elevated left ventricular (LV) volumes, LV mass, left atrial volumes, and increased ECV (patients with AF, 0.34 ± 0.03; healthy control patients, 0.29 ± 0.03; p < 0.001). There were positive associations between ECV and left atrial volume (r = 0.46, p < 0.01) and LV mass and a negative association between ECV and diastolic function (early mitral annular relaxation [E'], r = -0.55, p < 0.001). In the best overall multivariable model, ECV was the strongest predictor of the primary outcome of recurrent AF (hazard ratio: 1.29; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 to 1.44; p < 0.0001) and the secondary composite outcome of recurrent AF, heart failure admission, and death (hazard ratio: 1.35; 95% confidence interval: 1.21 to 1.51; p < 0.0001). Each 10% increase in ECV was associated with a 29% increased risk of recurrent AF. In patients with AF and hypertension, expansion of ECV is associated with diastolic function and left atrial remodeling and is a strong independent predictor of recurrent AF post-pulmonary vein isolation.

Evaluation Of Red Cell And Reticulocyte Parameters As Indicative Of Iron Deficiency In Patients With Anemia Of Chronic Disease.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of mature red cell and reticulocyte parameters under three conditions: iron deficiency anemia, anemia of chronic disease, and anemia of chronic disease associated with absolute iron deficiency. Peripheral blood cells from 117 adult patients with anemia were classified according to iron status, and inflammatory activity, and the results of a hemoglobinopathy investigation as: iron deficiency anemia (n=42), anemia of chronic disease (n=28), anemia of chronic disease associated with iron deficiency anemia (n=22), and heterozygous β thalassemia (n=25). The percentage of microcytic red cells, hypochromic red cells, and levels of hemoglobin content in both reticulocytes and mature red cells were determined. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to evaluate the accuracy of the parameters in differentiating between the different types of anemia. There was no significant difference between the iron deficient group and anemia of chronic disease associated with absolute iron deficiency in respect to any parameter. The percentage of hypochromic red cells was the best parameter to discriminate anemia of chronic disease with and without absolute iron deficiency (area under curve=0.785; 95% confidence interval: 0.661-0.909, with sensitivity of 72.7%, and specificity of 70.4%; cut-off value 1.8%). The formula microcytic red cells minus hypochromic red cells was very accurate in differentiating iron deficiency anemia and heterozygous β thalassemia (area under curve=0.977; 95% confidence interval: 0.950-1.005; with sensitivity of 96.2%, and specificity of 92.7%; cut-off value 13.8). The indices related to red cells and reticulocytes have a moderate performance in identifying absolute iron deficiency in patients with anemia of chronic disease.

Predictors Of Silent Myocardial Ischemia In Resistant Hypertensive Patients.

Hypertension is the most prevalent and significant modifiable risk factor for coronary heart disease. A portion of patients with uncontrolled hypertension are considered to have resistant hypertension (RHTN). Myocardial ischemia incidence increases along with blood pressure (BP) levels. However, the prevalence of myocardial ischemia in patients with RHTN, as well as the factors associated with it, is unknown. We enrolled 129 patients with true RHTN regularly followed in our specialty hypertension clinic and evaluated then by resting and dipyridamole pharmacological stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. Patients were then divided into 2 groups: those with (I-RHTN; n = 36) and those without (NI-RHTN; n = 93) myocardial ischemia. Echocardiography, 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), and flow mediated dilation (FMD) were also evaluated. Thirty six (28%) patients had myocardial ischemia. There was no difference between groups regarding age, sex, biochemical parameters, office, and 24-hour ABPM levels. Patients in the I-RHTN group were more likely diabetic (31% vs. 11%; P < 0.05) and obese (75% vs. 40%; P < 0.001). Adjusting for age and body mass index, multiple logistic regression showed that diabetes (odds ratio (OR) = 6.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-40.14; P = 0.04), FMD (OR = 0.18; 95% CI = 0.07-0.41; P < 0.001), heart rate (OR = 1.23; 95% CI = 1.11-1.36; P < 0.001), left ventricular mass index (OR = 1.02; 95% CI = 1.01-1.04; P = 0.04), and microalbuminuria (OR = 1.02; 95% CI = 1.01-1.04; P = 0.002) were independent predictors of ischemia. In conclusion, there is a high prevalence of myocardial ischemia in patients with RHTN. Increased microalbuminuria, heart rate, endothelial dysfunction, and left ventricular mass can be useful to guide the investigation for myocardial ischemia in these high risk patients.

Estado nutricional e qualidade de vida de escolares de 7 a 10 anos de idade de municípios da Região Metropolitana de Campinas

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Análise quantitativa da distribuição de jogadores de futebol em campo durante jogos oficiais

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física