The impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation phases on off-season maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil

In recent years, maize has become one of the main alternative crops for the autumn winter growing season in the central-western and southeastern regions of Brazil. However, water deficits, sub-optimal temperatures and low solar radiation levels are common problems that are experienced during this growing season by local farmers. One methodology to assess the impact of variable weather conditions on crop production is the use of crop simulation models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate variability on maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil. Specific objectives for this study were (1) to analyse the effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation and air temperature for four locations in the state of Sao Paulo and (2) to analyse the impact of ENSO on maize grown off-season for the same four locations using a crop simulation model. For each site, historical weather data were categorised as belonging to one of three phases of ENSO: El Nino (warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific), La Nina (cool sea surface temperature anomalies) or neutral, based on an index derived from observed sea surface temperature anomalies. During El Nino, there is a tendency for an increase in the rainfall amount during May for the four selected locations, and also during April, mainly in three of the locations, resulting in an increase in simulated maize yield planted between February 15 and March 15. In general, there was a decrease in the simulated yield for maize grown off-season during neutral years. This study showed how a crop model can be used to assess the impact of climate variability on the yield of maize grown off-season in a subtropical region of Brazil. The outcomes of this study can be very useful for both policy makers and local farmers for agricultural planning and decision making. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Sensitive detection of sodium in a flame using parametric four-wave mixing and seeded parametric four-wave mixing

Two-photon resonant parametric four-wave mixing and a newly developed variant called seeded parametric four-wave mixing are used to detect trace quantities of sodium in a flame. Both techniques are simple, requiring only a single laser to generate a signal beam at a different wavelength which propagates collinearly with the pump beam, allowing efficient signal recovery. A comparison of the two techniques reveals that seeded parametric four-wave mixing is more than two orders of magnitude more sensitive than parametric four-wave mixing, with an estimated detection sensitivity of 5 x 10(9) atoms/cm(3). Seeded parametric four-wave mixing is achieved by cascading two parametric four-wave mixing media such that one of the parametric fields generated in the first high-density medium is then used to seed the same four-wave mixing process in a second medium in order to increase the four-wave mixing gain. The behavior of this seeded parametric four-wave mixing is described using semiclassical perturbation theory. A simplified small-signal theory is found to model most of the data satisfactorily. However, an anomalous saturationlike behavior is observed in the large signal regime. The full perturbation treatment, which includes the competition between two different four-wave mixing processes coupled via the signal field, accounts for this apparently anomalous behavior.

Analytical solution for the Mollow and Autler-Townes probe absorption spectra of a three-level atom in a squeezed vacuum

The Mellow and Autler-Townes probe absorption spectra of a three-level atom in a cascade configuration with the lower transition coherently driven and also coupled to a narrow bandwidth squeezed-vacuum field are studied. Analytical studies of the modifications caused by the finite squeezed-vacuum bandwidth to the spectra are made for the case when the Rabi frequency of the driving field is much larger than the natural linewidth. The squeezed vacuum center frequency and the driving laser frequency are assumed equal. We show that the spectral features depend on the bandwidth of a squeezed vacuum field and whether the sources of the squeezing field are degenerate (DPA) or nondegenerate (NDPA) parametric amplifiers. In a broadband or narrow bandwidth squeezed vacuum generated by a NDPA, the central component of the Mellow spectrum can be significantly narrower than that in the normal vacuum. When the source of the squeezed vacuum is a DPA, the central feature is insensitive to squeezing. The Rabi sidebands, however, can be significantly narrowed only in the squeezed vacuum produced by the DPA. The two lines of the Autler-Townes absorption spectrum can be narrowed only in a narrow bandwidth squeezed vacuum, whereas they are independent of the phase and are always broadened in a broadband squeezed vacuum.

Three-dimensional quantum solitons with parametric coupling

We consider the quantum field theory of two bosonic fields interacting via both parametric (cubic) and quartic couplings. In the case of photonic fields in a nonlinear optical medium, this corresponds to the process of second-harmonic generation (via chi((2)) nonlinearity) modified by the chi((3)) nonlinearity. The quantum solitons or energy eigenstates (bound-state solutions) are obtained exactly in the simplest case of two-particle binding, in one, two, and three space dimensions. We also investigate three-particle binding in one space dimension. The results indicate that the exact quantum solitons of this field theory have a singular, pointlike structure in two and three dimensions-even though the corresponding classical theory is nonsingular. To estimate the physically accessible radii and binding energies of the bound states, we impose a momentum cutoff on the nonlinear couplings. In the case of nonlinear optical interactions, the resulting radii and binding energies of these photonic particlelike excitations in highly nonlinear parametric media appear to be close to physically observable values.

Multidimensional parametric quantum solitons

We consider the parametric quantum field theory involving cubic and quartic couplings of two bosonic fields. This is exactly soluble for the two-particle energy eigenstates (or quantum solitons) in one, two, and three space dimensions. We estimate the binding energies and corresponding radii in the case of photonic fields in nonlinear optical materials, and Bose-Einstein condensates. [S1050-2947(98)51110-9].

Theory of multidimensional parametric band-gap simultons

Multidimensional spatiotemporal parametric simultons (simultaneous solitary waves) are possible in a nonlinear chi((2)) medium with a Bragg grating structure, where large effective dispersion occurs near two resonant band gaps for the carrier and second-harmonic field, respectively. The enhanced dispersion allows much reduced interaction lengths, as compared to bulk medium parametric simultons. The nonlinear parametric band-gap medium permits higher-dimensional stationary waves to form. In addition, solitons can occur with lower input powers than conventional nonlinear Schrodinger equation gap solitons. In this paper, the equations for electromagnetic propagation in a grating structure with a parametric nonlinearity are derived from Maxwell's equation using a coupled mode Hamiltonian analysis in one, two, and three spatial dimensions. Simultaneous solitary wave solutions are proved to exist by reducing the equations to the coupled equations describing a nonlinear parametric waveguide, using the effective-mass approximation (EMA). Exact one-dimensional numerical solutions in agreement with the EMA solutions are also given. Direct numerical simulations show that the solutions have similar types of stability properties to the bulk case, providing the carrier waves are tuned to the two Bragg resonances, and the pulses have a width in frequency space less than the band gap. In summary, these equations describe a physically accessible localized nonlinear wave that is stable in up to 3 + 1 dimensions. Possible applications include photonic logic and switching devices. [S1063-651X(98)06109-1].

Novel solitons in parametric amplifiers and atom lasers

We review recent developments in quantum and classical soliton theory, leading to the possibility of observing both classical and quantum parametric solitons in higher-dimensional environments. In particular, we consider the theory of three bosonic fields interacting via both parametric (cubic) and quartic couplings. In the case of photonic fields in a nonlinear optical medium this corresponds to the process of sum frequency generation (via chi((2)) nonlinearity) modified by the chi((3)) nonlinearity. Potential applications include an ultrafast photonic AND-gate. The simplest quantum solitons or energy eigenstates (bound-state solutions) of the interacting field Hamiltonian are obtained exactly in three space dimensions. They have a point-like structure-even though the corresponding classical theory is nonsingular. We show that the solutions can be regularized with the imposition of a momentum cut-off on the nonlinear couplings. The case of three-dimensional matter-wave solitons in coupled atomic/molecular Bose-Einstein condensates is discussed.

Between-year fluctuations in schizophrenia birth rate and associations with the Southern Oscillation Index, cloud cover and sunshine

Our group have recently proposed that low prenatal vitamin D may be a risk-modifying factor for schizophrenia. Climate variability impacts on vitamin D levels in a population via fluctuations in the amount of available UV radiation. In order to explore this hypothesis, we examined fluctuations in the birthrates for people with schizophrenia born between 1920 and 1967 and three sets of variables strongly associated with UV radiation. These included: (a) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a marker of El Nino which is the most prominent meteorological factor that influences Queensland weather: (b) measures of cloud cover and (c) measures of sunshine. Schizophrenia births were extracted from the Queensland Mental Health register and corrected for background population birth rates. Schizophrenia birth rates had several apparently non-random features in common with the SO1. The prominent SO1 fluctuation event that occurred between 1937 and 1943 is congruent with the most prominent fluctuation in schizophrenia birth rates. The relatively flat profile of SOI activity between 1927 and 1936 also corresponds to the flattest period in the schizophrenia time series. Both time series have prominent oscillations in the 3 ~, year range between 1946 and 1960. Significant associations between schizophrenia birth rates and measures of both sunshine and cloud cover were identified,and all three time series shared periodicity in the 3-4 year range. The analyses suggest that the risk of schizophrenia is higher for those born during times of increased cloud cover,reduced sunshine and positive SO1. These ecological analyses provide initial support for the vitamin D hypothesis, however alternative non-genetic candidate exposures also need to be considered. Other sites with year-to-year fluctuations in cloud cover and sunshine should examine patterns of association between these climate variables and schizophrenia birth rates. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Millennial and orbital variations of El Nino/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to have operated continuously over the last glacial interglacial cycle(1). ENSO variability has been suggested to be linked to millennial-scale oscillations in North Atlantic climate during that time(2,3), but the proposals disagree on whether increased frequency of El Nino events, the warm phase of ENSO, was linked to North Atlantic warm or cold periods. Here we present a high-resolution record of surface moisture, based on the degree of peat humification and the ratio of sedges to grass, from northern Queensland, Australia, covering the past 45,000 yr. We observe millennial-scale dry periods, indicating periods of frequent El Nino events ( summer precipitation declines in El Nino years in northeastern Australia). We find that these dry periods are correlated to the Dansgaard - Oeschger events - millennial-scale warm events in the North Atlantic climate record - although no direct atmospheric connection from the North Atlantic to our site can be invoked. Additionally, we find climatic cycles at a semiprecessional timescale (, 11,900 yr). We suggest that climate variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean on millennial as well as orbital timescales, which determined precipitation in northeastern Australia, also exerted an influence on North Atlantic climate through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections.

Parametric analyses of anxiety in zebrafish scototaxis

Scototaxis, the preference for dark environments in detriment of bright ones, is an index of anxiety in zebrafish. In this work, we analyzed avoidance of the white compartment by analysis of the spatiotemporal pattern of exploratory behavior (time spent in the white compartment of the apparatus and shuttle frequency between compartments) and swimming ethogram (thigmotaxis, freezing and burst swimming in the white compartment) in four experiments. In Experiment 1, we demonstrate that spatiotemporal measures of white avoidance and locomotion do not habituate during a single 15-min session. In Experiments 2 and 3, we demonstrate that locomotor activity habituates to repeated exposures to the apparatus, regardless of whether inter-trial interval is 15-min or 24-h; however, no habituation of white avoidance was observed in either experiment. In Experiment 4, we confined animals for three 15-min sessions in the white compartment prior to recording spatiotemporal and ethogram measures in a standard preference test. After these forced exposures, white avoidance and locomotor activity showed no differences in relation to non-confined animals, but burst swimming, thigmotaxis and freezing in the white compartment were all decreased. These results suggest that neither avoidance of the white compartment nor approach to the black compartment account for the behavior of zebrafish in the scototaxis test. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parametric change in the grammatical encoding of indirect objects in Brazilian Portuguese

This paper examines the syntax of indirect objects (IO) in Brazilian Portuguese (BP). Adopting a comparative perspective we propose that BP differs from European Portuguese (EP) in the grammatical encoding of IO. In EP ditransitive contexts, IO is found in two configurations - one projected by a (low) applicative head and another one involving a lexical/true preposition. We propose that the former property is contingent upon the presence of dative Case marking: namely, the morpheme `a` that introduces IO (a-DP), whose corresponding clitic pronoun is `lhe/lhes`. In contrast, important changes in the pronominal system, coupled with the increase in the use of the preposition `para` are taken as evidence for the loss of the low applicative construction in BP. Thus only the configuration with the lexical/true preposition is found in (Standard) BP. We argue that the innovative properties of IO in BP are due to the loss of the (3rd person) dative clitic and the preposition `a` as dative Case markers. Under this view, we further account for the realization of IO as a DP/weak pronoun, found in dialects of the central region of Brazil, which points to a similarity with the English Double Object Construction. Finally we show that the connection between the morphological expression of the dative Case and the expression of parameters supports a view of syntactic change according to which parametric variation is determined in the lexicon, in terms of the formal features of functional heads.

Conditional variance reduction by measurements on correlated field modes

We consider the case of two cavity modes of the electromagnetic field, which are coupled via the action of a parametric amplifier. The fields are allowed to leak from the cavity and homodyne measurement is performed on one of the modes. Because of the correlations between the modes, this leads to a reduction of the variance in a quadrature of the other mode, although no measurement is performed on it directly. We discuss how this relates to the Einstein-Podolky-Rosen Gedankenexperiment.