Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

Ross River virus disease activity associated with naturally occurring non-tidal flood events in Australia : A systematic review

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia, resulting in considerable health and economic cost to communities. While naturally occurring non-tidal flood events may enhance mosquito abundance, little is known about the impact of such events on RRV transmission. This paper critically reviews the existing evidence for an association between naturally occurring non-tidal flood events and RRV transmission. A systematic literature search was conducted on RRV transmission related to flooding and inundation from rain and riverine overflow. Overall, the evidence to support a positive association between flooding and RRV outbreaks is largely circumstantial, with the literature mostly reporting only coincidental occurrence between the two. However, for the Murray River, river flow and height (surrogates of flooding) were positively and significantly associated with RRV transmission. The association between non-tidal flooding and RRV transmission has not been studied comprehensively. More frequent flood events arising from climate change may result in increased outbreaks of RRV disease. Understanding the link between flood events and RRV transmission is necessary if resources for mosquito spraying and public health warnings are to be utilized more effectively and efficiently.

Financing the project : economic incentives promoting sustainable property development

This chapter is focussed on the various financial instruments and incentives that have been implemented in a range of countries to encourage sustainable developments in all property sectors. It is an area that has undergone substantial change globally since 2008. Sustainable property development has been impacted by the Global Financial Crisis, particularly with regards to the availability of private sector funding and the requirements of funders who now have a more cautious approach to risk. Sustainability, and sometimes a lack of it, is increasingly viewed as a risk in some markets; it is also seen as an area in which governments, through creation of markets and through the use of fiscal instruments can seek to speed up the pace at which the economics of sustainable development makes good business sense. However, it is not just governments that provide the incentive for sustainability- or the dis-incentive for non-sustainable behaviours.

Professional indemnity insurance, performance and pre-emptive negligence: The impact of ‘non-claims’

As part of Australian licensing requirements professional valuers are required to maintain a level of professional indemnity insurance. A core feature of any insurance cover is that the insured has an obligation to notify their insurer of both actual and potential claims. An actual claim clearly will impact upon future policies and premiums paid. Notification of a potential claim, whether or not the notification crystallises into an actual claim, also can have an impact upon the insured’s claims history and premiums. The Global Financial Crisis continues to impact upon business practices and land transactions both directly and indirectly. The Australian valuation profession is not exempt from this impact. One example of this ongoing impact is reflected in a worrying practice engaged in by some financial institutions in respect of their loan portfolios. That is, even though the mortgagor is not in default, some institutions are pre-emptively issuing notices of demand regarding potential losses. Further, in some instances such demands are based only on mass appraisal valuations without specific consideration being given to the individual lot in question. The author examines the impact of this practice for the valuation profession and seeks to provide guidance for the appropriate handling of such demands.

Inventing life: Intellectual property and the new biology

In 2009, the National Research Council of the National Academies released a report on A New Biology for the 21st Century. The council preferred the term ‘New Biology’ to capture the convergence and integration of the various disciplines of biology. The National Research Council stressed: ‘The essence of the New Biology, as defined by the committee, is integration—re-integration of the many sub-disciplines of biology, and the integration into biology of physicists, chemists, computer scientists, engineers, and mathematicians to create a research community with the capacity to tackle a broad range of scientific and societal problems.’ They define the ‘New Biology’ as ‘integrating life science research with physical science, engineering, computational science, and mathematics’. The National Research Council reflected: 'Biology is at a point of inflection. Years of research have generated detailed information about the components of the complex systems that characterize life––genes, cells, organisms, ecosystems––and this knowledge has begun to fuse into greater understanding of how all those components work together as systems. Powerful tools are allowing biologists to probe complex systems in ever greater detail, from molecular events in individual cells to global biogeochemical cycles. Integration within biology and increasingly fruitful collaboration with physical, earth, and computational scientists, mathematicians, and engineers are making it possible to predict and control the activities of biological systems in ever greater detail.' The National Research Council contended that the New Biology could address a number of pressing challenges. First, it stressed that the New Biology could ‘generate food plants to adapt and grow sustainably in changing environments’. Second, the New Biology could ‘understand and sustain ecosystem function and biodiversity in the face of rapid change’. Third, the New Biology could ‘expand sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels’. Moreover, it was hoped that the New Biology could lead to a better understanding of individual health: ‘The New Biology can accelerate fundamental understanding of the systems that underlie health and the development of the tools and technologies that will in turn lead to more efficient approaches to developing therapeutics and enabling individualized, predictive medicine.’ Biological research has certainly been changing direction in response to changing societal problems. Over the last decade, increasing awareness of the impacts of climate change and dwindling supplies of fossil fuels can be seen to have generated investment in fields such as biofuels, climate-ready crops and storage of agricultural genetic resources. In considering biotechnology’s role in the twenty-first century, biological future-predictor Carlson’s firm Biodesic states: ‘The problems the world faces today – ecosystem responses to global warming, geriatric care in the developed world or infectious diseases in the developing world, the efficient production of more goods using less energy and fewer raw materials – all depend on understanding and then applying biology as a technology.’ This collection considers the roles of intellectual property law in regulating emerging technologies in the biological sciences. Stephen Hilgartner comments that patent law plays a significant part in social negotiations about the shape of emerging technological systems or artefacts: 'Emerging technology – especially in such hotbeds of change as the life sciences, information technology, biomedicine, and nanotechnology – became a site of contention where competing groups pursued incompatible normative visions. Indeed, as people recognized that questions about the shape of technological systems were nothing less than questions about the future shape of societies, science and technology achieved central significance in contemporary democracies. In this context, states face ongoing difficulties trying to mediate these tensions and establish mechanisms for addressing problems of representation and participation in the sociopolitical process that shapes emerging technology.' The introduction to the collection will provide a thumbnail, comparative overview of recent developments in intellectual property and biotechnology – as a foundation to the collection. Section I of this introduction considers recent developments in United States patent law, policy and practice with respect to biotechnology – in particular, highlighting the Myriad Genetics dispute and the decision of the Supreme Court of the United States in Bilski v. Kappos. Section II considers the cross-currents in Canadian jurisprudence in intellectual property and biotechnology. Section III surveys developments in the European Union – and the interpretation of the European Biotechnology Directive. Section IV focuses upon Australia and New Zealand, and considers the policy responses to the controversy of Genetic Technologies Limited’s patents in respect of non-coding DNA and genomic mapping. Section V outlines the parts of the collection and the contents of the chapters.

Gossip we can trust: Defamation law and non-fiction

Drawing on two case studies, this article considers the allegation of a disgruntled author: ’Defamation was framed to protect the reputations of 19th century gentlemen hypocrites'. The first case study considers the litigation over Bob Ellis' unreliable political memoir, ’Goodbye Jerusalem', published by Random House. The second case study focuses upon the litigation over the allegation by Media Watch that Richard Carleton had plagarised a documentary entitled ’Cry from the Grave'. The article considers the meaning of defamatory imputations, the range of defences, and the available remedies. It highlights the competing arguments over the protection of reputation and privacy, artistic expression, and the freedom of speech. This article concludes that defamation law should foster ’gossip we can trust'.

The alchemy of junk: patent law and non-coding DNA

This article considers the recent international controversy over the patents held by a Melbourne firm, Genetic Technologies Limited (GTG), in respect of non-coding DNA and genomic mapping. It explores the ramifications of the GTG dispute in terms of licensing, litigation, and policy reform, and—as a result of this dispute—the perceived conflict between law and science. GTG has embarked upon an ambitious licensing program with twenty seven commercial licensees and five research licensees. Most significantly, GTG has obtained an exclusive licence from Myriad Genetics to use and exploit its medical diagnostics in Australia, New Zealand, and the Asia-Pacific region. In the US, GTG brought a legal action for patent infringement against the Applera Corporation and its subsidiaries. In response, Applera counterclaimed that the patents of GTG were invalid because they failed to comply with the requirements of US patent law, such as novelty, inventive step, and written specifications. In New Zealand, the Auckland District Health Board brought legal action in the High Court, seeking a declaration that the patents of GTG were invalid, and that, in any case, the Board has not infringed them. The New Zealand Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Economic Development have reported to Cabinet on the issues relating to the patenting of genetic material. Similarly, the Australian Law Reform Commission (ALRC) has also engaged in an inquiry into gene patents and human health; and the Advisory Council on Intellectual Property (ACIP) has considered whether there should be a new defence in respect of experimental use and research.

The commodification and exploitation of fresh water: Property, human rights and green criminology

In recent years, both developing and industrialised societies have experienced riots and civil unrest over the corporate exploitation of fresh water. Water conflicts increase as water scarcity rises and the unsustainable use of fresh water will continue to have profound implications for sustainable development and the realisation of human rights. Rather than states adopting more costly water conservation strategies or implementing efficient water technologies, corporations are exploiting natural resources in what has been described as the “privatization of water”. By using legal doctrines, states and corporations construct fresh water sources as something that can be owned or leased. For some regions, the privatization of water has enabled corporations and corrupt states to exploit a fundamental human right. Arguing that such matters are of relevance to criminology, which should be concerned with fundamental environmental and human rights, this article adopts a green criminological perspective and draws upon Treadmill of Production theory.

Intellectual Property and Biotechnology: Biological Inventions

This book documents and evaluates the dramatic expansion of intellectual property law to accommodate various forms of biotechnology from micro-organisms, plants, and animals to human genes and stem cells. It makes a unique theoretical contribution to the controversial public debate over the commercialization of biological inventions. The author also considers the contradictions between the Supreme Court of Canada rulings in respect of the Harvard oncomouse, and genetically modified canola. He explores law, policy, and practice in both Australia and New Zealand in respect to gene patents and non-coding DNA. This study charts the rebellion against the European Union Biotechnology Directive – particularly in respect of Myriad Genetics’ BRCA1 and BRCA2 patents, and stem cell patent applications. The book also considers whether patent law will accommodate frontier technologies – such as bioinformatics, haplotype mapping, proteomics, pharmacogenomics, and nanotechnology. Intellectual Property and Biotechnology will be of prime interest to lawyers and patent attorneys, scientists and researchers, business managers and technology transfer specialists.

Floods and property values: A hedonic property and efficiency analysis

This study investigates the impact floods on property values using the hedonic property price approach and other relevant econometric techniques. The main objectives of this research are to investigate (1) the impact of the release of flood-risk information and the actual floods on property values (2) the temporal behaviour of negative impacts (3) the property submarket behaviour (4) the behaviour of flood affected vs flood non-affected areas and (5) the property market efficiency. The thesis expanded on the existing literature on natural disasters by applying a range of econometric techniques. Findings of this research are useful for policy decision-making which is aimed at minimizing the negative impacts of natural hazards on property markets. The thesis findings also provide a better framework for decision-making in the property insurance market. The methodological improvements that are made in the thesis will be invaluable for analysing the impacts of natural hazards elsewhere.

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Building an understanding of law: Engaging property economics students by using technology

It is assumed university students engage with technology as easily for their university studies as they do socially. However, prior research reflects the difficulties that non-law students face in engaging with legal materials. The purpose of this research was to determine how technology use impacts upon non-law students’ engagement with legal materials. The project explored inter alia the extent to which first year non-law students engaged with technology for their studies and in particular with legal materials and databases. The project was undertaken during semester 2, 2014 in a legal service unit delivered to a mixed cohort, which included construction management, property economics, planning and quantity surveying students. Actual technology use and familiarity was tested by means of an in class survey delivered in the Week 2 lecture. Use and familiarity was then retested at the end of semester in the Week 13 lecture, with adjustments made in lecture delivery and materials in-between.

Studies on the Effects of Property Taxation, Rent Control and Housing Allowances

Tämä väitöskirja koostuu asuntomarkkinoiden taloustieteellistä analyysia esittelevästä johdantoluvusta ja kolmesta tutkimuksesta, joissa analysoidaan asuntomarkkinoihin vaikuttavia politiikkatoimenpiteitä. Luvussa 2 tutkitaan Suomen kiinteistöverojärjestelmän vaikutusta asuntorakentamiseen. Vuonna 2001 tehtiin uudistus, jonka myötä kunnat voivat verottaa rakentamatonta asuintonttia korkeammalla veroasteella kuin rakennettua tonttia. Maanomistajan rakentamispäätöksen teoreettisen mallin mukaan rakentamattoman tontin korotettu kiinteistöveron pitäisi nopeuttaa rakentamista, mutta toisaalta myös rakentamiseen investoitu rahamäärä saattaa muuttua. Asuintonttien kiinteistöverojen yleinen taso ei vaikuta maanomistajan käyttäytymiseen, sillä tontin verotusarvo ei riipu rakentamispäätöksestä. Vain rakentamattoman ja rakennetun tontin veroasteiden erolla on merkitystä. Empiiriset tulokset ovat sopusoinnussa teorian kanssa. Tulosten mukaan prosenttiyksikön nousu rakentamattoman ja rakennetun tontin veroasteiden erossa lisää omakotialoitusten määrää viidellä prosentilla lyhyellä aikavälillä. Luvussa 3 analysoidaan vuokrasääntelystä vuokralaisille aiheutuvia hyötyjä ja haittoja. Vuokrasäännellyissä asunnoissa asuvat kotitaloudet hyötyvät vuokrasääntelystä alhaisen vuokran muodossa. Heille saattaa kuitenkin koitua myös haittaa siitä, että toiveita vastaavan asunnon löytäminen on vuokrasääntelytilanteessa vaikeaa, koska vapaille asunnoille on suuri määrä ottajia. Vapaarahoitteisen vuokra-asuntokannan vuokrien sääntely purettiin Suomessa asteittain vuosina 1992–1995. Tutkimuksen empiiriset tulokset viittaavat siihen, että vuokrasääntelyn aiheuttamista suurista eroista halutun ja todellisen asuntokulutuksen välillä koituvat hyvinvointitappiot kumosivat merkittävän osan matalien vuokrien hyödyistä vuokralaisille. Luvussa 4 tutkitaan Suomen asumistukijärjestelmän kannustinvaikutuksia. Asumistuen määrää rajoittavat asunnon pinta-alalle ja neliövuokralle asetetut ylärajat. Neliövuokrarajoite voidaan tulkita asumisen laatua rajoittavana tekijänä. Tutkimuksen teoreettisessa osassa osoitetaan, että asumistukijärjestelmä luo vahvat kannustimet muuttaa asuntoihin, joissa pinta-ala- ja laaturajoitteet purevat. Empiiristen tulosten mukaan asumistukeen oikeutetut kotitaloudet eivät näytä reagoivan kannusteisiin. Tukeen oikeutettujen kotitalouksien asumisvalinnat suhteessa pinta-ala ja laaturajoitteisiin vastaavat muiden kotitalouksien valintoja ja asunnonvaihdon mahdollistama potentiaalinen asumistuen lisäys ei nosta muuttotodennäköisyyttä. Muuttamiseen liittyvät kustannukset ja vajavaiset tiedot tukijärjestelmästä saattavat selittää heikkoa reagointia asumistuen luomiin kannustimiin. Toinen mahdollinen selitys on asumistuen vajaakäyttö. Tutkimuksen mukaan vain 70–80 prosenttia asumistukeen oikeutetuista kotitalouksista nostaa tukea. Asumistuen hyödyntämisen todennäköisyys riippuu koulutustasosta, tuen määrästä ja tulo-odotuksista.

Statutory licences and third party dealings: Property analysis v statutory interpretation

Statutory licensing schemes are proliferating as a means of regulating commercial activity, resource exploitation and activities harmful to the environment. Statutes often declare that entitlements are non-transferable or are transferable only with approval or subject to conditions. Some entitlements, such as resource consents issued under the Resource Management Act 1991 (NZ), are declared not to be property. Despite these statutory declarations, entitlements are often held to be transferable in equity or to be property for the purposes of resolving private disputes. Recently, in Greenshell New Zealand Ltd v Tikapa Moana Enterprises Ltd, the High Court of New Zealand indicated that a resource consent was property that could support a claim for relief against forfeiture, continuing the trend in earlier cases that appear to depart from the statute. In this article we examine the juridical treatment of entitlements in private law. We identify factors influencing the courts’ enforcement of private arrangements which may circumvent the statutory intent. Our analysis will guide legislators in the design of provisions to implement new schemes.

Assignments of non-retail commercial leases: Some contentious issues

Assignment clauses in non-retail commercial leases are as infinitely varied as the circumstances in which disputes arise. Each clause must be individually interpreted as part of the lease in which it is embedded. Whilst the assignment of a lease is one of the most commonplace transactions between lessor and lessee, the case law reveals few unifying principles. This article seeks to cautiously identify a set of principles which should be in the mind of any lawyer when a dispute relating to an assignment arises. It concludes with a short checklist of matters which must be considered by such a person to encourage the application of principles in the first instance towards a resolution of the dispute.