Ensemble clustering in deterministic ensemble Kalman filters

Ensemble clustering (EC) can arise in data assimilation with ensemble square root filters (EnSRFs) using non-linear models: an M-member ensemble splits into a single outlier and a cluster of M−1 members. The stochastic Ensemble Kalman Filter does not present this problem. Modifications to the EnSRFs by a periodic resampling of the ensemble through random rotations have been proposed to address it. We introduce a metric to quantify the presence of EC and present evidence to dispel the notion that EC leads to filter failure. Starting from a univariate model, we show that EC is not a permanent but transient phenomenon; it occurs intermittently in non-linear models. We perform a series of data assimilation experiments using a standard EnSRF and a modified EnSRF by a resampling though random rotations. The modified EnSRF thus alleviates issues associated with EC at the cost of traceability of individual ensemble trajectories and cannot use some of algorithms that enhance performance of standard EnSRF. In the non-linear regimes of low-dimensional models, the analysis root mean square error of the standard EnSRF slowly grows with ensemble size if the size is larger than the dimension of the model state. However, we do not observe this problem in a more complex model that uses an ensemble size much smaller than the dimension of the model state, along with inflation and localisation. Overall, we find that transient EC does not handicap the performance of the standard EnSRF.

Dark energy parametrizations and their effect on dark halos

There are a plethora of dark energy parametrizations that can fit current supernovae Ia data. However, these data are only sensitive to redshifts up to order one. In fact, many of these parametrizations break down at higher redshifts. In this paper we study the effect of dark energy models on the formation of dark halos. We select a couple of dark energy parametrizations which are sensible at high redshifts and compute their effect on the evolution of density perturbations in the linear and non-linear regimes. Using the Press-Schechter formalism we show that they produce distinguishable signatures in the number counts of dark halos. Therefore, future observations of galaxy clusters can provide complementary constraints on the behaviour of dark energy.

A escola da escolha pública e o logrolling: um teste para o Senado Federal brasileiro, entre os anos de 2003 e 2006

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Geração de massa em Teorias de Gauge

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A cátedra UNESCO de direito à educação da Faculdade de Direito: democracia, cidadania e direito à educação

Regimes democráticos se consolidam na medida de sua aceitação pela maioria, o que supõe conhecimento e confiança nas instituições políticas e jurídicas. A educação de qualidade é relevante para a governança democrática e para a formação da cidadania, posto propiciar o acesso a ferramentas cognitivas necessárias para a participação política relevante. As interações entre a democracia, o direito à educação e as políticas públicas de educação são analisadas pela Cátedra UNESCO no projeto de pesquisa “Brasil 25 anos de democracia” sob o ângulo da função promocional do Direito à Educação da FD, em parceria com o Núcleo de Políticas Públicas da USP, com. O foco da pesquisa é a atividade do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), a do Superior Tribunal de Justiça (STJ) e a do Congresso Nacional, no período compreendido entre os anos 2000 e 2010.

Demokratie, good governance und Entwicklung: Eine quantitative Analyse für 191 Staaten im Zeitraum 1996 bis 2005

Das Jahr 1989 markiert nicht nur den Beginn entscheidender geopolitischer Veränderungen, sondern gleichzeitig den Ursprung eines bedeutsamen Wandels in der internationalen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit. Mit der viel beachteten Studie ‚Sub-Saharan Africa – From Crisis to Sustainable Growth’ initiierte die Weltbank eine Debatte über die Relevanz institutioneller Faktoren für wirtschaftliche Entwicklung, die in den folgenden Jahren unter dem Titel ‚Good Governance’ erhebliche Bedeutung erlangte. Nahezu alle zentralen Akteure begannen, entsprechende Aspekte in ihrer praktischen Arbeit zu berücksichtigen, und entwickelten eigene Konzepte zu dieser Thematik. Wenn auch mit der Konzentration auf Institutionen als Entwicklungsdeterminanten eine grundlegende Gemeinsamkeit der Ansätze festzustellen ist, unterscheiden sie sich jedoch erheblich im Hinblick auf die Einbeziehung politischer Faktoren, so dass von einem einheitlichen Verständnis von ‚Good Governance’ nicht gesprochen werden kann. Während die meisten bilateralen Akteure sowie DAC und UNDP Demokratie und Menschenrechte explizit als zentrale Bestandteile betrachten, identifiziert die Weltbank einen Kern von Good Governance, der unabhängig von der Herrschaftsform, also sowohl in Demokratien wie auch in Autokratien, verwirklicht werden kann. Die Implikationen dieser Feststellung sind weit reichend. Zunächst erlaubt erst diese Sichtweise der Bank überhaupt, entsprechende Aspekte aufzugreifen, da ihr eine Berücksichtigung politischer Faktoren durch ihre Statuten verboten ist. Bedeutsamer ist allerdings, dass die Behauptung der Trennbarkeit von Good Governance und der Form politischer Herrschaft die Möglichkeit eröffnet, Entwicklung zu erreichen ohne eine demokratische Ordnung zu etablieren, da folglich autokratische Systeme in gleicher Weise wie Demokratien in der Lage sind, die institutionellen Voraussetzungen zu verwirklichen, welche als zentrale Determinanten für wirtschaftlichen Fortschritt identifiziert wurden. Damit entfällt nicht nur ein bedeutsamer Rechtfertigungsgrund für demokratische Herrschaft als solche, sondern rekurrierend auf bestimmte, dieser zu attestierende, entwicklungshemmende Charakteristika können Autokratien nun möglicherweise als überlegene Herrschaftsform verstanden werden, da sie durch jene nicht gekennzeichnet sind. Die Schlussfolgerungen der Weltbank unterstützen somit auch die vor allem im Zusammenhang mit der Erfolgsgeschichte der ostasiatischen Tigerstaaten vertretene Idee der Entwicklungsdiktatur, die heute mit dem Aufstieg der Volksrepublik China eine Renaissance erlebt. Der wirtschaftliche Erfolg dieser Staaten ist danach auf die überlegene Handlungsfähigkeit autokratischer Systeme zurückzuführen, während Demokratien aufgrund der Verantwortlichkeitsbeziehungen zwischen Regierenden und Regierten nicht in der Lage sind, die notwendigen Entscheidungen zu treffen und durchzusetzen. Die dargestellte Sichtweise der Weltbank ist allerdings von verschiedenen Autoren in Zweifel gezogen worden, die auch für ein im Wesentlichen auf technische Elemente beschränktes Good Governance-Konzept einen Zusammenhang mit der Form politischer Herrschaft erkennen. So wird beispielsweise vertreten, das Konzept der Bank bewege sich ausdrücklich nicht in einem systemneutralen Vakuum, sondern propagiere zumindest implizit die Etablierung demokratischer Regierungsformen. Im Übrigen steht die aus den Annahmen der Weltbank neuerlich abgeleitete Idee der Entwicklungsdiktatur in einem erheblichen Widerspruch zu der von multilateralen wie bilateralen Akteuren verstärkt verfolgten Förderung demokratischer Herrschaft als Mittel für wirtschaftliche Entwicklung sowie der fortschreitenden Verbreitung der Demokratie. Besteht nun doch ein Einfluss der Herrschaftsform auf die Verwirklichung von Good Governance als zentraler Entwicklungsdeterminante und kann zudem davon ausgegangen werden, dass Demokratien diesbezüglich Vorteile besitzen, dann ist eine Entwicklungsdiktatur keine denkbare Möglichkeit, sondern im Gegenteil demokratische Herrschaft der gebotene Weg zu wirtschaftlichem Wachstum bzw. einer Verbesserung der Lebensverhältnisse. Aufgrund der mit den Schlussfolgerungen der Weltbank verbundenen bedeutsamen Implikationen und der bisher weitestgehend fehlenden ausführlichen Thematisierung dieses Gegenstands in der Literatur ist eine detaillierte theoretische Betrachtung der Zusammenhänge zwischen den zentralen Elementen von Good Governance und demokratischer Herrschaft notwendig. Darüber hinaus sollen die angesprochenen Beziehungen auch einer empirischen Analyse unterzogen werden. Gegenstand dieser Arbeit ist deshalb die Fragestellung, ob Good Governance eine von demokratischer Herrschaft theoretisch und empirisch unabhängige Entwicklungsstrategie darstellt.

Essays on the Empirical Analysis of Economic and Political Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa, non-democratic events, like civil wars and coup d'etat, destroy economic development. This study investigates both domestic and spatial effects on the likelihood of civil wars and coup d'etat. To civil wars, an increase of income growth is one of common research conclusions to stop wars. This study adds a concern on ethnic fractionalization. IV-2SLS is applied to overcome causality problem. The findings document that income growth is significant to reduce number and degree of violence in high ethnic fractionalized countries, otherwise they are trade-off. Income growth reduces amount of wars, but increases its violent level, in the countries with few large ethnic groups. Promoting growth should consider ethnic composition. This study also investigates the clustering and contagion of civil wars using spatial panel data models. Onset, incidence and end of civil conflicts spread across the network of neighboring countries while peace, the end of conflicts, diffuse only with the nearest neighbor. There is an evidence of indirect links from neighboring income growth, without too much inequality, to reduce the likelihood of civil wars. To coup d'etat, this study revisits its diffusion for both all types of coups and only successful ones. The results find an existence of both domestic and spatial determinants in different periods. Domestic income growth plays major role to reduce the likelihood of coup before cold war ends, while spatial effects do negative afterward. Results on probability to succeed coup are similar. After cold war ends, international organisations seriously promote democracy with pressure against coup d'etat, and it seems to be effective. In sum, this study indicates the role of domestic ethnic fractionalization and the spread of neighboring effects to the likelihood of non-democratic events in a country. Policy implementation should concern these factors.

Right-handed neutrino production rate at T > 160 GeV

The production rate of right-handed neutrinos from a Standard Model plasma at a temperature above a hundred GeV has previously been evaluated up to NLO in Standard Model couplings (g ~ 2/3) in relativistic (M ~ πT) and non-relativistic regimes (M ≫ πT), and up to LO in an ultrarelativistic regime (M ≲ gT). The last result necessitates an all-orders resummation of the loop expansion, accounting for multiple soft scatterings of the nearly light-like particles participating in 1↔2 reactions. In this paper we suggest how the regimes can be interpolated into a result applicable for any right-handed neutrino mass and at all temperatures above 160GeV. The results can also be used for determining the lepton number washout rate in models containing right-handed neutrinos. Numerical results are given in a tabulated form permitting for their incorporation into leptogenesis codes. We note that due to effects from soft Higgs bosons there is a narrow intermediate regime around M ~g 1/2 T in which our interpolation is phenomenological and a more precise study would be welcome.

Efficient Bayesian inference for learning in the Ising linear perceptron and signal detection in CDMA

Efficient new Bayesian inference technique is employed for studying critical properties of the Ising linear perceptron and for signal detection in code division multiple access (CDMA). The approach is based on a recently introduced message passing technique for densely connected systems. Here we study both critical and non-critical regimes. Results obtained in the non-critical regime give rise to a highly efficient signal detection algorithm in the context of CDMA; while in the critical regime one observes a first-order transition line that ends in a continuous phase transition point. Finite size effects are also studied. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estudo da transição de fase da percolação através da entropia da informação

Various physical systems have dynamics that can be modeled by percolation processes. Percolation is used to study issues ranging from fluid diffusion through disordered media to fragmentation of a computer network caused by hacker attacks. A common feature of all of these systems is the presence of two non-coexistent regimes associated to certain properties of the system. For example: the disordered media can allow or not allow the flow of the fluid depending on its porosity. The change from one regime to another characterizes the percolation phase transition. The standard way of analyzing this transition uses the order parameter, a variable related to some characteristic of the system that exhibits zero value in one of the regimes and a nonzero value in the other. The proposal introduced in this thesis is that this phase transition can be investigated without the explicit use of the order parameter, but rather through the Shannon entropy. This entropy is a measure of the uncertainty degree in the information content of a probability distribution. The proposal is evaluated in the context of cluster formation in random graphs, and we apply the method to both classical percolation (Erd¨os- R´enyi) and explosive percolation. It is based in the computation of the entropy contained in the cluster size probability distribution and the results show that the transition critical point relates to the derivatives of the entropy. Furthermore, the difference between the smooth and abrupt aspects of the classical and explosive percolation transitions, respectively, is reinforced by the observation that the entropy has a maximum value in the classical transition critical point, while that correspondence does not occurs during the explosive percolation.

Estudo da transição de fase da percolação através da entropia da informação

Various physical systems have dynamics that can be modeled by percolation processes. Percolation is used to study issues ranging from fluid diffusion through disordered media to fragmentation of a computer network caused by hacker attacks. A common feature of all of these systems is the presence of two non-coexistent regimes associated to certain properties of the system. For example: the disordered media can allow or not allow the flow of the fluid depending on its porosity. The change from one regime to another characterizes the percolation phase transition. The standard way of analyzing this transition uses the order parameter, a variable related to some characteristic of the system that exhibits zero value in one of the regimes and a nonzero value in the other. The proposal introduced in this thesis is that this phase transition can be investigated without the explicit use of the order parameter, but rather through the Shannon entropy. This entropy is a measure of the uncertainty degree in the information content of a probability distribution. The proposal is evaluated in the context of cluster formation in random graphs, and we apply the method to both classical percolation (Erd¨os- R´enyi) and explosive percolation. It is based in the computation of the entropy contained in the cluster size probability distribution and the results show that the transition critical point relates to the derivatives of the entropy. Furthermore, the difference between the smooth and abrupt aspects of the classical and explosive percolation transitions, respectively, is reinforced by the observation that the entropy has a maximum value in the classical transition critical point, while that correspondence does not occurs during the explosive percolation.

The institutional design of intra-party democracy through legal instruments: Turkish case

The importance of political parties for contemporary representative democracies is beyond dispute. Despite their significance for state-level democracy, political parties continue to be regarded as oligarchical and to be criticised because of their internal practices. For this reason, intra-party democracy (IPD) warrants in-depth analysis. This thesis investigates IPD in Turkey, primarily from the perspective of participatory democracy, with the purpose of suggesting reforms to the Turkish Political Parties Law (TPPL). Turkish political parties and Turkish party regulation provide an interesting case because there is a significant difference between mature democracies and Turkey regarding IPD regulation. IPD in established democracies has always been regarded as a private concern of parties and has been left unregulated. IPD in Turkey, by contrast, is provided for both by the constitution and the TPPL. Although IPD is a constitutional and legal requirement in Turkey, however, political parties in fact display a high level of non-democratic administration. The main reason is that the TPPL only pays lip service to the idea of IPD and requires no specific measures apart from establishing a party congress with a representative form of democracy. By establishing and holding party congresses, political parties are perceived as conforming to the requirements of IPD under the law. In addition, the contested nature of democracy as a concept has impeded the creation of efficacious legal principles. Thus, the existing party law fails to tackle the lack of IPD within political parties and, for this reason, is in need of reform. Furthermore, almost every Turkish party’s own constitution highlights the importance of IPD and promises IPD. However, these declared commitments to IPD in their constitutions alone, especially in countries where the democratic culture is weak, are unlikely to make much difference in practice. Accordingly, external regulation is necessary to ensure the protection of the rights and interests of the party members with regards to their participation in intra-party decision-making processes. Nevertheless, in spite of a general consensus in favour of reforming the TPPL, a lack of consensus exists as to what kind of reforms should be adopted. This thesis proposes that reforming the TPPL in line with an approach based on participatory democracy could provide better IPD within Turkish political parties, citing as evidence comparative case studies of the participatory practices for policy-making, leadership selection and candidate selection in mature democracies. This thesis also analyses membership registration and the effect of state funding on IPD, which are highly problematic in Turkey and represent impediments to the flourishing of IPD.

Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach

We examine the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate is examined both in a linear and a nonlinear context. We find that the change from the crawling peg to the crawling band regime did not affect the long-run relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, but altered the short-run dynamics. Non-linear adjustment seems appropriate for the first period, mainly due to strict foreign controls that cause distortions in the transition back to equilibrium once disequilibrium occurs

The welfare state determinants of health: Implications of regimes and pathways

Background. Population health within and between nations is heavily influenced by political determinants, yet these determinants have received significantly less attention than socioeconomic factors in public health. It has been hypothesized that the welfare state, as a political variable, may play a particularly prominent role in affecting both health indicators and health disparities in developed countries. The research, however, provides conflicting evidence regarding the health impact of particular regimes over others and the mechanisms through which the welfare state can most significantly affect health.^ Objective. To perform a systematic review of the literature as a means of exploring what the current research indicates regarding the benefits or detriments of particular regimes styles and the pathways through which the welfare state can impact heath indicators and health disparities within developed countries.^ Methods. A thorough search of the EBSCO, Pubmed, Medline, Web of Science, and Scopus electronic databases was conducted and resulted in the identification of 15 studies that evaluated the association between welfare state regime and population health outcomes, and/or pathways through with the welfare state influences health. ^ Results. Social democratic countries tended to perform best when infant mortality rate (IMR) was the primary outcome of interest, whereas liberal countries performed strongly in relation to self perceived health. The results were mixed regarding welfare state effectiveness in mitigating health inequities, with Christian democratic countries performing as well as social democratic countries. In relation to welfare state pathways, public health spending and medical coverage were associated with positive health indicators. Redistributive impact of the welfare state was also consistently associated with better health outcomes while social security expenditures were not.^ Discussion/Conclusions. Studies consistently discovered a significant relationship between the welfare state and population health and/or health disparities, lending support to the hypothesis that the welfare state is, indeed, an important non-medical determinant of health. However, it is still fairly unclear which welfare state regime may be most protective for health, as results varied according to the measured health indicator. The research regarding welfare state pathways is particularly undeveloped, and does not provide much insight into the importance of in-kind service provision or cash transfers, or targeted or universal approaches to the welfare state. Suggestions to direct future research are provided.^