Dealing with heterogeneity problems and causal effect estimation in entrepreneurship research

This paper deals with causal effect estimation strategies in highly heterogeneous empirical settings such as entrepreneurship. We argue that the clearer used of modern tools developed to deal with the estimation of causal effects in combination with our analysis of different sources of heterogeneity in entrepreneurship can lead to entrepreneurship with higher internal validity. We specifically lend support from the counterfactual logic and modern research of estimation strategies for causal effect estimation.

Meta-level terrorism futures : constructing and deconstructing using causal layered analysis

Focused on the alternative futures of terrorism, this study engages with the different levels of terrorism knowledge to identify and challenge the restrictive narratives that define terrorism: that "society must be defended" from the "constant and evolving terrorist threat". Using Causal Layered Analysis to deconstruct and reconstruct strategies, alternative scenarios emerge. These alternative futures are depicted collectively as a maze, highlighting the prospect of navigating towards preferred and even shared terrorism futures, once these are supported by new and inclusive metaphors and stakeholder engagement.

Causal behavioural profiles : efficient computation, applications, and evaluation

Analysis of behavioural consistency is an important aspect of software engineering. In process and service management, consistency verification of behavioural models has manifold applications. For instance, a business process model used as system specification and a corresponding workflow model used as implementation have to be consistent. Another example would be the analysis to what degree a process log of executed business operations is consistent with the corresponding normative process model. Typically, existing notions of behaviour equivalence, such as bisimulation and trace equivalence, are applied as consistency notions. Still, these notions are exponential in computation and yield a Boolean result. In many cases, however, a quantification of behavioural deviation is needed along with concepts to isolate the source of deviation. In this article, we propose causal behavioural profiles as the basis for a consistency notion. These profiles capture essential behavioural information, such as order, exclusiveness, and causality between pairs of activities of a process model. Consistency based on these profiles is weaker than trace equivalence, but can be computed efficiently for a broad class of models. In this article, we introduce techniques for the computation of causal behavioural profiles using structural decomposition techniques for sound free-choice workflow systems if unstructured net fragments are acyclic or can be traced back to S- or T-nets. We also elaborate on the findings of applying our technique to three industry model collections.

Efficient computation of causal behavioural profiles using structural decomposition

Identification of behavioural contradictions is an important aspect of software engineering, in particular for checking the consistency between a business process model used as system specification and a corresponding workflow model used as implementation. In this paper, we propose causal behavioural profiles as the basis for a consistency notion, which capture essential behavioural information, such as order, exclusiveness, and causality between pairs of activities. Existing notions of behavioural equivalence, such as bisimulation and trace equivalence, might also be applied as consistency notions. Still, they are exponential in computation. Our novel concept of causal behavioural profiles provides a weaker behavioural consistency notion that can be computed efficiently using structural decomposition techniques for sound free-choice workflow systems if unstructured net fragments are acyclic or can be traced back to S- or T-nets.

Understanding causal relationships between the built and social environment, health and associated behaviours and risk factors

Introduction: Built environment interventions designed to reduce non-communicable diseases and health inequity, complement urban planning agendas focused on creating more ‘liveable’, compact, pedestrian-friendly, less automobile dependent and more socially inclusive cities.However, what constitutes a ‘liveable’ community is not well defined. Moreover, there appears to be a gap between the concept and delivery of ‘liveable’ communities. The recently funded NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence (CRE) in Healthy Liveable Communities established in early 2014, has defined ‘liveability’ from a social determinants of health perspective. Using purpose-designed multilevel longitudinal data sets, it addresses five themes that address key evidence-base gaps for building healthy and liveable communities. The CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities seeks to generate and exchange new knowledge about: 1) measurement of policy-relevant built environment features associated with leading non-communicable disease risk factors (physical activity, obesity) and health outcomes (cardiovascular disease, diabetes) and mental health; 2) causal relationships and thresholds for built environment interventions using data from longitudinal studies and natural experiments; 3) thresholds for built environment interventions; 4) economic benefits of built environment interventions designed to influence health and wellbeing outcomes; and 5) factors, tools, and interventions that facilitate the translation of research into policy and practice. This evidence is critical to inform future policy and practice in health, land use, and transport planning. Moreover, to ensure policy-relevance and facilitate research translation, the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities builds upon ongoing, and has established new, multi-sector collaborations with national and state policy-makers and practitioners. The symposium will commence with a brief introduction to embed the research within an Australian health and urban planning context, as well as providing an overall outline of the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities, its structure and team. Next, an overview of the five research themes will be presented. Following these presentations, the Discussant will consider the implications of the research and opportunities for translation and knowledge exchange. Theme 2 will establish whether and to what extent the neighbourhood environment (built and social) is causally related to physical and mental health and associated behaviours and risk factors. In particular, research conducted as part of this theme will use data from large-scale, longitudinal-multilevel studies (HABITAT, RESIDE, AusDiab) to examine relationships that meet causality criteria via statistical methods such as longitudinal mixed-effect and fixed-effect models, multilevel and structural equation models; analyse data on residential preferences to investigate confounding due to neighbourhood self-selection and to use measurement and analysis tools such as propensity score matching and ‘within-person’ change modelling to address confounding; analyse data about individual-level factors that might confound, mediate or modify relationships between the neighbourhood environment and health and well-being (e.g., psychosocial factors, knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, functional status), and; analyse data on both objective neighbourhood characteristics and residents’ perceptions of these objective features to more accurately assess the relative contribution of objective and perceptual factors to outcomes such as health and well-being, physical activity, active transport, obesity, and sedentary behaviour. At the completion of the Theme 2, we will have demonstrated and applied statistical methods appropriate for determining causality and generated evidence about causal relationships between the neighbourhood environment, health, and related outcomes. This will provide planners and policy makers with a more robust (valid and reliable) basis on which to design healthy communities.

Causal factors of hot air ballooning incidents : identification, frequency, and potential impact

Background: Hot air ballooning incidents are relatively rare, however, when they do occur they are likely to result in a fatality or serious injury. Human error is commonly attributed as the cause of hot air ballooning incidents; however, error in itself is not an explanation for safety failures. This research aims to identify, and establish the relative importance of factors contributing towards hot air ballooning incidents. Methods: Twenty-two Australian Ballooning Federation (ABF) incident reports were thematically coded using a bottom up approach to identify causal factors. Subsequently, 69 balloonists (mean 19.51 years’ experience) participated in a survey to identify additional causal factors and rate (out of seven) the perceived frequency and potential impact to ballooning operations of each of the previously identified causal factors. Perceived associated risk was calculated by multiplying mean perceived frequency and impact ratings. Results: Incident report coding identified 54 causal factors within nine higher level areas: Attributes, Crew resource management, Equipment, Errors, Instructors, Organisational, Physical Environment, Regulatory body and Violations. Overall, ‘weather’, ‘inexperience’ and ‘poor/inappropriate decisions’ were rated as having greatest perceived associated risk. Discussion: Although errors were nominated as a prominent cause of hot air ballooning incidents, physical environment and personal attributes are also particularly important for safe hot air ballooning operations. In identifying a range of causal factors the areas of weakness surrounding ballooning operations have been defined; it is hoped that targeted safety and training strategies can now be put into place removing these contributing factors and reducing the chance of pilot error.

Does the microbiome play a causal role in spondyloarthritis?

The purpose of this study is to review the potential causal role of the microbiome in the pathogenesis of spondyloarthritis. The method used for the study is literature review. The microbiome plays a major role in educating the immune response. The microbiome is strongly implicated in inflammatory bowel disease which has clinical and genetic overlap with spondyloarthritis. The microbiome also plays a causal role in bowel and joint disease in HLA B27/human beta 2 microglobulin transgenic rats. The mechanism(s) by which HLA B27 could influence the microbiome is unknown but theories include an immune response gene selectivity, an effect on dendritic cell function, or a mucosal immunodeficiency. Bacteria are strongly implicated in the pathogenesis of spondyloarthritis. Studies to understand how HLA B27 affects bacterial ecosystems should be encouraged.

Recent advances in the molecular biology of Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli, causal organism of ratoon stunting disease

Twelve years ago our understanding of ratoon stunting disease (RSD) was confined almost exclusively to diagnosis of the disease and control via farm hygiene, with little understanding of the biology of the interaction between the causal agent (Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli) and the host plant sugarcane (Saccharum spp. hybrids). Since then, research has focused on developing the molecular tools to dissect L. xyli subsp. xyli, so that better control strategies can be developed to prevent losses from RSD. Within this review, we give a brief overview of the progression in research on L. xyli subsp. xyli and highlight future challenges. After a brief historical background on RSD, we discuss the development of molecular tools such as transformation and transposon mutagenesis and discuss the apparent lack of genetic diversity within the L. xyli subsp. xyli world population. We go on to discuss the sequencing of the genome of L. xyli subsp. xyli, describe the key findings and suggest some future research based on known deficiencies that will capitalise on this tremendous knowledge base to which we now have access.

CYP19A1 fine-mapping and Mendelian randomization: Estradiol is causal for endometrial cancer

Candidate gene studies have reported CYP19A1 variants to be associated with endometrial cancer and with estradiol (E2) concentrations. We analyzed 2937 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 6608 endometrial cancer cases and 37 925 controls and report the first genome wide-significant association between endometrial cancer and a CYP19A1 SNP (rs727479 in intron 2, P=4.8x10(-11)). SNP rs727479 was also among those most strongly associated with circulating E2 concentrations in 2767 post-menopausal controls (P=7.4x10(-8)). The observed endometrial cancer odds ratio per rs727479 A-allele (1.15, CI=1.11-1.21) is compatible with that predicted by the observed effect on E2 concentrations (1.09, CI=1.03-1.21), consistent with the hypothesis that endometrial cancer risk is driven by E2. From 28 candidate-causal SNPs, 12 co-located with three putative gene-regulatory elements and their risk alleles associated with higher CYP19A1 expression in bioinformatical analyses. For both phenotypes, the associations with rs727479 were stronger among women with a higher BMI (Pinteraction=0.034 and 0.066 respectively), suggesting a biologically plausible gene-environment interaction.

Population structure of Pyrenophora teres, the causal agent of net blotch of barley

Spring barley is the most important crop in Finland based on cultivated land area. Net blotch, a disease caused by Pyrenophora teres Drech., is the most damaging disease of barley in Finland. The pressure to improve the economics and efficiency of agriculture has increased the need for more efficient plant protection methods. Development of durable host-plant resistance to net blotch is a promising possibility. However, deployment of disease resistant crops could initiate selection pressure on the pathogen (P. teres) population. The aim of this study was to understand the population biology of P. teres and to estimate the evolutionary potential of P. teres under selective pressure following deployment of resistance genes and application of fungicides. The study included mainly Finnish P. teres isolates. Population samples from Russia and Australia were also included. Using AFLP markers substantial genotypic variation in P. teres populations was identified. Differences among isolates were least within Finnish fields and significantly higher in Krasnodar, Russia. Genetic differentiation was identified among populations from northern Europe and from Australia, and between the two forms P. teres f. teres (PTT, net form of net blotch) and P. teres f. maculata (PTM, spot form of net blotch) in Australia. Differentiation among populations was also identified based on virulence between Finnish and Russian populations, and based on prochloraz (fungicide) tolerance in the Häme region in Finland. Surprisingly only PTT was recovered from Finland and Russia although both forms were earlier equally common in Finland. The reason for the shift in occurrence of forms in Finland remained uncertain. Both forms were found within several fields in Australia. Sexual reproduction of P. teres was supported by recover of both mating types in equal ratio in those areas although the prevalence of sexual mating seems to be less in Finland than in Australia. Population from Krasnodar was an exception since only one mating type was found in there. Based on the substantial high genotypic variation in Krasnodar it was suggested go represent an old P. teres population, whereas the Australian samples were suggested to represent newer populations. In conclusion, P. teres populations are differentiated at several levels. Human assistance in dispersal of P. teres on infected barley seed is obvious and decreases the differentiation among populations. This can increase the plant protection problems caused by this pathogen. P. teres is capable of sexual reproduction in several areas but the prevalence varies. Based on these findings it is apparent that P. teres has the potential to pose more serious problems in barley cultivation if plant protection is neglected. Therefore, good agricultural practices, including crop rotation and the use of healthy seed, are recommended.

Pythium soft rot of ginger: Detection and identification of the causal pathogens, and their control

Ginger is considered by many people to be the outstanding member among 1400 other species in the family Zingiberaceae. Not only it is a valuable spice used by cooks throughout the world to impart unique flavour to their dishes but it also has a long track record in some Chinese and Indian cultures for treating common human ailments such as colds and headaches. Ginger has recently attracted considerable attention for its anti-inflammatory, antibacterial and antifungal properties. However, ginger as a crop is also susceptible to at least 24 different plant pathogens, including viruses, bacteria, fungi and nematodes. Of these, Pythium spp. (within the kingdom Stramenopila, phyllum Oomycota) are of most concern because various species can cause rotting and yield loss on ginger at any of the growth stages including during postharvest storage. Pythium gracile was the first species in the genus to be reported as a ginger pathogen, causing Pythium soft rot disease in India in 1907. Thereafter, numerous other Pythium spp. have been recorded from ginger growing regions throughout the world. Today, 15 Pythium species have been implicated as pathogens of the soft rot disease. Because accurate identification of a pathogen is the cornerstone of effective disease management programs, this review will focus on how to detect, identify and control Pythium spp. in general, with special emphasis on Pythium spp. associated with soft rot on ginger.

Cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and output: Assessing the evidence from Australia

In this paper, we describe our investigation of the cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic output in Australia over a period of five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach used in an Australian study of this type to include energy, capital and labour as separate inputs of production. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between energy and output and implies that energy is an important variable in the cointegration space, as are conventional inputs capital and labour. We also find some evidence of bidirectional causality between GDP and energy use. Although the evidence of causality from energy use to GDP was relatively weak when using the thermal aggregate of energy use, once energy consumption was adjusted for energy quality, we found strong evidence of Granger causality from energy use to GDP in Australia over the investigated period. The results are robust, irrespective of the assumptions of linear trends in the cointegration models, and are applicable for different econometric approaches.

The multidimensional causal factors of ‘wet litter’ in chicken-meat production

The problem of ‘wet litter’, which occurs primarily in grow-out sheds for meat chickens (broilers), has been recognised for nearly a century. Nevertheless, it is an increasingly important problem in contemporary chicken-meat production as wet litter and associated conditions, especially footpad dermatitis, have developed into tangible welfare issues. This is only compounded by the market demand for chicken paws and compromised bird performance. This review considers the multidimensional causal factors of wet litter. While many causal factors can be listed it is evident that the critical ones could be described as micro-environmental factors and chief amongst them is proper management of drinking systems and adequate shed ventilation. Thus, this review focuses on these environmental factors and pays less attention to issues stemming from health and nutrition. Clearly, there are times when related avian health issues of coccidiosis and necrotic enteritis cannot be overlooked and the development of efficacious vaccines for the latter disease would be advantageous. Presently, the inclusion of phytate-degrading enzymes in meat chicken diets is routine and, therefore, the implication that exogenous phytases may contribute to wet litter is given consideration. Opinion is somewhat divided as how best to counter the problem of wet litter as some see education and extension as being more beneficial than furthering research efforts. However, it may prove instructive to assess the practice of whole grain feeding in relation to litter quality and the incidence of footpad dermatitis. Additional research could investigate the relationships between dietary concentrations of key minerals and the application of exogenous enzymes with litter quality.