Trade and investment flows between the Caribbean and the rest of the hemisphere in the context of the FTAA

Includes bibliography

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment programmes in rural Lesotho: health centres and hospitals compared

Introduction: Lesotho was among the first countries to adopt decentralization of care from hospitals to nurse-led health centres (HCs) to scale up the provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared outcomes between patients who started ART at HCs and hospitals in two rural catchment areas in Lesotho. Methods: The two catchment areas comprise two hospitals and 12 HCs. Patients ≥16 years starting ART at a hospital or HC between 2008 and 2011 were included. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) was defined as not returning to the facility for ≥180 days after the last visit, no follow-up (no FUP) as not returning after starting ART, and retention in care as alive and on ART at the facility. The data were analysed using logistic regression, competing risk regression and Kaplan-Meier methods. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for sex, age, CD4 cell count, World Health Organization stage, catchment area and type of ART. All analyses were stratified by gender. Results: Of 3747 patients, 2042 (54.5%) started ART at HCs. Both women and men at hospitals had more advanced clinical and immunological stages of disease than those at HCs. Over 5445 patient-years, 420 died and 475 were LTFU. Kaplan-Meier estimates for three-year retention were 68.7 and 69.7% at HCs and hospitals, respectively, among women (p=0.81) and 68.8% at HCs versus 54.7% at hospitals among men (p<0.001). These findings persisted in adjusted analyses, with similar retention at HCs and hospitals among women (odds ratio (OR): 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-1.09) and higher retention at HCs among men (OR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.20-1.96). The latter result was mainly driven by a lower proportion of patients LTFU at HCs (OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.51-0.93). Conclusions: In rural Lesotho, overall retention in care did not differ significantly between nurse-led HCs and hospitals. However, men seemed to benefit most from starting ART at HCs, as they were more likely to remain in care in these facilities compared to hospitals.

A prehistoric thoroughfare between the Ganges and the Himalayas

The greater Himalayan region, including the Tibetan plateau in the north and the Gangetic plain in the south, served as the principal prehistoric thoroughfare for the peopling of East and Southeast Asia. The descendants of ancient migrants through this region ultimately settled lands as far away as New Zealand, Madagascar and the Americas. Several of the keys to understanding the ethnogenesis of human diversity in Asia include the Father Tongue correlation, possible refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum and the hypothesis that language families may have arisen as the result of demographic bottlenecks in prehistory. Ethnolinguistically informed inferences based on Asian Y chromosomal phylogeography permit a reconstruction of episodes of ethnolinguistic prehistory which lie beyond the linguistic event horizon, i.e. beyond the time depth empirically accessible to historical linguistics. The origins of the language families which make up the hypothetical Uralo-Siberian and East Asian linguistic phyla are argued to have lain in the northeastern corner of the Indian subcontinent. Several other Asian language families are shown to be tied to the subcontinent. The Centripetal Migration model, which assumes that migrations in quest of a better life unfolded in both centrifugal and centripetal directions with respect to technologically more advanced centres of civilisation, is opposed to the Farming Language Dispersal theory, which assumes that all linguistic dispersals were driven by agricultural centrifugal migration.

Bargaining for power and information : an experimental and theoretical analysis of the interaction between institutions, externalities and adverse selection

Bargaining is the building block of many economic interactions, ranging from bilateral to multilateral encounters and from situations in which the actors are individuals to negotiations between firms or countries. In all these settings, economists have been intrigued for a long time by the fact that some projects, trades or agreements are not realized even though they are mutually beneficial. On the one hand, this has been explained by incomplete information. A firm may not be willing to offer a wage that is acceptable to a qualified worker, because it knows that there are also unqualified workers and cannot distinguish between the two types. This phenomenon is known as adverse selection. On the other hand, it has been argued that even with complete information, the presence of externalities may impede efficient outcomes. To see this, consider the example of climate change. If a subset of countries agrees to curb emissions, non-participant regions benefit from the signatories’ efforts without incurring costs. These free riding opportunities give rise to incentives to strategically improve ones bargaining power that work against the formation of a global agreement. This thesis is concerned with extending our understanding of both factors, adverse selection and externalities. The findings are based on empirical evidence from original laboratory experiments as well as game theoretic modeling. On a very general note, it is demonstrated that the institutions through which agents interact matter to a large extent. Insights are provided about which institutions we should expect to perform better than others, at least in terms of aggregate welfare. Chapters 1 and 2 focus on the problem of adverse selection. Effective operation of markets and other institutions often depends on good information transmission properties. In terms of the example introduced above, a firm is only willing to offer high wages if it receives enough positive signals about the worker’s quality during the application and wage bargaining process. In Chapter 1, it will be shown that repeated interaction coupled with time costs facilitates information transmission. By making the wage bargaining process costly for the worker, the firm is able to obtain more accurate information about the worker’s type. The cost could be pure time cost from delaying agreement or cost of effort arising from a multi-step interviewing process. In Chapter 2, I abstract from time cost and show that communication can play a similar role. The simple fact that a worker states to be of high quality may be informative. In Chapter 3, the focus is on a different source of inefficiency. Agents strive for bargaining power and thus may be motivated by incentives that are at odds with the socially efficient outcome. I have already mentioned the example of climate change. Other examples are coalitions within committees that are formed to secure voting power to block outcomes or groups that commit to different technological standards although a single standard would be optimal (e.g. the format war between HD and BlueRay). It will be shown that such inefficiencies are directly linked to the presence of externalities and a certain degree of irreversibility in actions. I now discuss the three articles in more detail. In Chapter 1, Olivier Bochet and I study a simple bilateral bargaining institution that eliminates trade failures arising from incomplete information. In this setting, a buyer makes offers to a seller in order to acquire a good. Whenever an offer is rejected by the seller, the buyer may submit a further offer. Bargaining is costly, because both parties suffer a (small) time cost after any rejection. The difficulties arise, because the good can be of low or high quality and the quality of the good is only known to the seller. Indeed, without the possibility to make repeated offers, it is too risky for the buyer to offer prices that allow for trade of high quality goods. When allowing for repeated offers, however, at equilibrium both types of goods trade with probability one. We provide an experimental test of these predictions. Buyers gather information about sellers using specific price offers and rates of trade are high, much as the model’s qualitative predictions. We also observe a persistent over-delay before trade occurs, and this mitigates efficiency substantially. Possible channels for over-delay are identified in the form of two behavioral assumptions missing from the standard model, loss aversion (buyers) and haggling (sellers), which reconcile the data with the theoretical predictions. Chapter 2 also studies adverse selection, but interaction between buyers and sellers now takes place within a market rather than isolated pairs. Remarkably, in a market it suffices to let agents communicate in a very simple manner to mitigate trade failures. The key insight is that better informed agents (sellers) are willing to truthfully reveal their private information, because by doing so they are able to reduce search frictions and attract more buyers. Behavior observed in the experimental sessions closely follows the theoretical predictions. As a consequence, costless and non-binding communication (cheap talk) significantly raises rates of trade and welfare. Previous experiments have documented that cheap talk alleviates inefficiencies due to asymmetric information. These findings are explained by pro-social preferences and lie aversion. I use appropriate control treatments to show that such consideration play only a minor role in our market. Instead, the experiment highlights the ability to organize markets as a new channel through which communication can facilitate trade in the presence of private information. In Chapter 3, I theoretically explore coalition formation via multilateral bargaining under complete information. The environment studied is extremely rich in the sense that the model allows for all kinds of externalities. This is achieved by using so-called partition functions, which pin down a coalitional worth for each possible coalition in each possible coalition structure. It is found that although binding agreements can be written, efficiency is not guaranteed, because the negotiation process is inherently non-cooperative. The prospects of cooperation are shown to crucially depend on i) the degree to which players can renegotiate and gradually build up agreements and ii) the absence of a certain type of externalities that can loosely be described as incentives to free ride. Moreover, the willingness to concede bargaining power is identified as a novel reason for gradualism. Another key contribution of the study is that it identifies a strong connection between the Core, one of the most important concepts in cooperative game theory, and the set of environments for which efficiency is attained even without renegotiation.

The EU-China Bilateral Investment Agreement: Between High Hopes and Real Challenges. Security Policy Brief No. 68, February 2016

In 2012, negotiations over an EU–China bilateral investment agreement were launched to fully tap into the potential of bilateral investments. This policy brief gives an overview of the current negotiation process and argues that the high hopes advanced politically and economically in the agreement must be weighed against the many challenges and obstacles the negotiations face, regarding current events in EU–China relations, in global trade and investment regimes, and the limits of EU competencies. Strategically, the agreement could be important, as it offers the potential to strengthen the EU’s global economic relevance. This brief concludes that there is much to gain if the EU follows a coordinated approach and remains mindful of these (potential) obstacles.

The pragmatics of computer-mediated communication between South African and Mexican drug traffickers

South Africa and Mexico are ripe with drug trafficking. The gangs and syndicates running the drug businesses in these two countries collaborate occasionally. Communication between these international drug business partners takes place on social media. Their main language of communication is English, mixed with some limited use of Spanish and Afrikaans. The key purpose of the interactions between the South African and Mexican parties is the organisation of their business activities. This study aims at examining how the drug traffickers position each other and themselves regarding their common business interest and how their relationship evolves throughout their interactions. Moreover, it is of interest to look at how these people make use of different social media and their affordances. For this a qualitative analysis of the interaction between two drug traffickers (one South African and one Mexican) on Facebook, Threema and PlayStation 4 was performed. Computer-mediated communication between these two main informants was studied at various stages of their relationship. Results show that at first the interaction between the South African and Mexican drug traffickers consists of interpersonal negotiations of power. The high risk of the drug business and gang/syndicate membership paired with intercultural frictions causes the two interlocutors to be extremely cautious and at the same time to mark their position. As their relationship develops and they gain trust in each other a shift to interpersonal negotiations of solidarity takes place. In these discursive practices diverse linguistic strategies are employed for creating relational effects and for positioning the other and the self. The discursive activities of the interactants are also identity practices. Thus, the two drug traffickers construct identities through these social practices, positioning and their interpersonal relationship.

The role of enduring involvement in the relationship between reference price and price acceptance in the context of multichannel choice

Understanding online price acceptance and its determining factors can be essential if the companies try to manage different type of channels. The paper aimed to reveal the role of enduring involvement in price acceptance in a multichannel (online and offline) context. The study revealed that the hedonic value of shopping can increase the negative intention of price acceptance in the online channel, but also explored that for the segment without shopping motivations a similar price level can be applied both in the online and in the offline environment.

The impact of airport shopping environments and dwell time on consumer spending

This article provides new insight into how the ambience and design of shopping environments impact onspending behaviour. Environmental cues in a retail area influence emotional states of by-passers, which in turn influence spending levels. Past research suggested that this effect only applies to shops with moderate arousal level. Also, several studies failed to confirm a relationship between emotions and spending levels. This is surprising, since high arousal environments (e.g., amusement parks, sports stadiums and airports) often feature a wide range of retail outlets. Based on survey data collected in a live airport shopping area, this study finds a relationship between pleasure emotions associated with the retail area and recalled consumer spending, but also the time available for shopping (which in an airport is constrained). Also, visitors’ emotional state was influenced by the ambience (e.g., cleanliness, noise levels, lighting) as well as the design (e.g., easy wayfinding, seating areas) of the retail area. Shopper’s arousal levels did not explain variations in spending level. Implications for researchers and managers are discussed as well as suggestions for future research.

Essays on the Dynamic Decisions of Homeowners and Retailers

Urban problems have several features that make them inherently dynamic. Large transaction costs all but guarantee that homeowners will do their best to consider how a neighborhood might change before buying a house. Similarly, stores face large sunk costs when opening, and want to be sure that their investment will pay off in the long run. In line with those concerns, different areas of Economics have made recent advances in modeling those questions within a dynamic framework. This dissertation contributes to those efforts.

Chapter 2 discusses how to model an agent’s location decision when the agent must learn about an exogenous amenity that may be changing over time. The model is applied to estimating the marginal willingness to pay to avoid crime, in which agents are learning about the crime rate in a neighborhood, and the crime rate can change in predictable (Markovian) ways.

Chapters 3 and 4 concentrate on location decision problems when there are externalities between decision makers. Chapter 3 focuses on the decision of business owners to open a store, when its demand is a function of other nearby stores, either through competition, or through spillovers on foot traffic. It uses a dynamic model in continuous time to model agents’ decisions. A particular challenge is isolating the contribution of spillovers from the contribution of other unobserved neighborhood attributes that could also lead to agglomeration. A key contribution of this chapter is showing how we can use information on storefront ownership to help separately identify spillovers.

Finally, chapter 4 focuses on a class of models in which families prefer to live

close to similar neighbors. This chapter provides the first simulation of such a model in which agents are forward looking, and shows that this leads to more segregation than it would have been observed with myopic agents, which is the standard in this literature. The chapter also discusses several extensions of the model that can be used to investigate relevant questions such as the arrival of a large contingent high skilled tech workers in San Francisco, the immigration of hispanic families to several southern American cities, large changes in local amenities, such as the construction of magnet schools or metro stations, and the flight of wealthy residents from cities in the Rust belt, such as Detroit.

Modelled niche centres and niche breadths of open ocean phytoplankton taxa

This data contains realized ecological niche estimates of phytoplankton taxa within the mixed layer of the open ocean. The estimates are based on data from the MARine Ecosystem DATa (MAREDAT) initiative, and cover five phytoplankton functional types: coccolithophores (40 species), diatoms (87 species), diazotrophs (two genera), Phaeocystis (two species) and picophytoplankton (two genera). Considered as major niche dimensions were temperature (°C), mixed layer depth (MLD; m), nitrate concentration (µmoles/L), mean photosynthetically active radiation in the mixed layer (MLPAR; µmoles/m**2/s), salinity, and the excess of phosphate versus nitrate relative to the Redfield ratio (P*; µmoles/L). For each niche dimension at a time, conditions at presence locations of the taxa were contrasted with conditions in 12 000 randomly sampled points from the open ocean using MaxEnt models. We used the quartiles of the response curves of these models to parameterize realized niche centers and niche breadths: the median (q50) of the response curves was considered to be the niche center and the distance between the lower quartile (q25) and the upper quartile (q75) was used as a rough estimate of niche breadth. We only reported meaningful niche estimates, i.e., estimates based on MaxEnt models that perform significantly better than random, as indicated by an area under the curve (AUC) score significantly larger than 0.5.

Parallel ruptures: Jews of Bessarabia and Transnistria between Romanian nationalism and Soviet communism, 1918-1940

“Parallel Ruptures: Jews of Bessarabia and Transnistria between Romanian Nationalism and Soviet Communism, 1918-1940,” explores the political and social debates that took place in Jewish communities in Romanian-held Bessarabia and the Moldovan Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic during the interwar era. Both had been part of the Russian Pale of Settlement until its dissolution in 1917; they were then divided by the Romanian Army’s occupation of Bessarabia in 1918 with the establishment of a well-guarded border along the Dniester River between two newly-formed states, Greater Romania and the Soviet Union. At its core, the project focuses in comparative context on the traumatic and multi-faceted confrontation with these two modernizing states: exclusion, discrimination and growing violence in Bessarabia; destruction of religious tradition, agricultural resettlement, and socialist re-education and assimilation in Soviet Transnistria. It examines also the similarities in both states’ striving to create model subjects usable by the homeland, as well as commonalities within Jewish responses on both sides of the border. Contacts between Jews on either side of the border remained significant after 1918 despite the efforts of both states to curb them, thereby necessitating a transnational view in order to examine Jewish political and social life in borderland regions. The desire among Jewish secular leaders to mold their co-religionists into modern Jews reached across state borders and ideological divides and sought to manipulate respective governments to establish these goals, however unsuccessful in the final analysis. Finally, strained relations between Jews in peripheral borderlands with those at national/imperial cores, Moscow and Bucharest, sheds light on the complex circumstances surrounding the inclusion versus exclusion debates at the heart of all interwar European states and the complicated negotiations that took place within all minority communities that responded to state policies.

Association Between Prehypertension, Metabolic And Inflammatory Markers, Decreased Adiponectin And Enhanced Insulinemia In Obese Subjects.

Obesity is associated with development of the cardiorenal metabolic syndrome, which is a constellation of risk factors, such as insulin resistance, inflammatory response, dyslipidemia, and high blood pressure that predispose affected individuals to well-characterized medical conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular and kidney chronic disease. The study was designed to establish relationship between metabolic and inflammatory disorder, renal sodium retention and enhanced blood pressure in a group of obese subjects compared with age-matched, lean volunteers. The study was performed after 14 h overnight fast after and before OGTT in 13 lean (BMI 22.92 ± 2.03 kg/m(2)) and, 27 obese (BMI 36.15 ± 3.84 kg/m(2)) volunteers. Assessment of HOMA-IR and QUICKI index were calculated and circulating concentrations of TNF-α, IL-6 and C-reactive protein, measured by immunoassay. THE STUDY SHOWS THAT A HYPERINSULINEMIC (HI: 10.85 ± 4.09 μg/ml) subgroup of well-characterized metabolic syndrome bearers-obese subjects show higher glycemic and elevated blood pressure levels when compared to lean and normoinsulinemic (NI: 5.51 ± 1.18 μg/ml, P < 0.027) subjects. Here, the combination of hyperinsulinemia, higher HOMA-IR (HI: 2.19 ± 0.70 (n = 12) vs. LS: 0.83 ± 0.23 (n = 12) and NI: 0.98 ± 0.22 (n = 15), P < 0.0001) associated with lower QUICKI in HI obese when compared with LS and NI volunteers (P < 0.0001), suggests the occurrence of insulin resistance and a defect in insulin-stimulated peripheral action. Otherwise, the adiponectin measured in basal period was significantly enhanced in NI subjects when compared to HI groups (P < 0.04). The report also showed a similar insulin-mediated reduction of post-proximal urinary sodium excretion in lean (LS: 9.41 ± 0.68% vs. 6.38 ± 0.92%, P = 0.086), and normoinsulinemic (NI: 8.41 ± 0.72% vs. 5.66 ± 0.53%, P = 0.0025) and hyperinsulinemic obese subjects (HI: 8.82 ± 0.98% vs. 6.32 ± 0.67%, P = 0.0264), after oral glucose load, despite elevated insulinemic levels in hyperinsulinemic obeses. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of adiponectin levels and dysfunctional inflammatory modulation associated with hyperinsulinemia and peripheral insulin resistance, high blood pressure, and renal dysfunction in a particular subgroup of obeses.

Interface Between Intellectual Disability And Mental Health: Hermeneutic Review.

A literature review was conducted aiming to understand the interface between the Intellectual Disability and Mental Health fields and to contribute to mitigating the path of institutionalizing individuals with intellectual deficiencies. The so-called dual diagnosis phenomenon remains underestimated in Brazil but is the object of research and specific public policy internationally. This phenomenon alerts us to the prevalence of mental health problems in those with intellectual disabilities, limiting their social inclusion. The findings reinforce the importance of this theme and indicate possible diagnostic invisibility of the development of mental illness in those with intellectual disabilities in Brazil, which may contribute to sustaining psychiatric institutionalization of this population. 

Correlation Between Cephalometric Data And Severity Of Sleep Apnea.

Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome has a high prevalence among adults. Cephalometric variables can be a valuable method for evaluating patients with this syndrome. To correlate cephalometric data with the apnea-hypopnea sleep index. We performed a retrospective and cross-sectional study that analyzed the cephalometric data of patients followed in the Sleep Disorders Outpatient Clinic of the Discipline of Otorhinolaryngology of a university hospital, from June 2007 to May 2012. Ninety-six patients were included, 45 men, and 51 women, with a mean age of 50.3 years. A total of 11 patients had snoring, 20 had mild apnea, 26 had moderate apnea, and 39 had severe apnea. The distance from the hyoid bone to the mandibular plane was the only variable that showed a statistically significant correlation with the apnea-hypopnea index. Cephalometric variables are useful tools for the understanding of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. The distance from the hyoid bone to the mandibular plane showed a statistically significant correlation with the apnea-hypopnea index.

Interplay Between Cell Growth And Cell Cycle In Plants.

The growth of organs and whole plants depends on both cell growth and cell-cycle progression, but the interaction between both processes is poorly understood. In plants, the balance between growth and cell-cycle progression requires coordinated regulation of four different processes: macromolecular synthesis (cytoplasmic growth), turgor-driven cell-wall extension, mitotic cycle, and endocycle. Potential feedbacks between these processes include a cell-size checkpoint operating before DNA synthesis and a link between DNA contents and maximum cell size. In addition, key intercellular signals and growth regulatory genes appear to target at the same time cell-cycle and cell-growth functions. For example, auxin, gibberellin, and brassinosteroid all have parallel links to cell-cycle progression (through S-phase Cyclin D-CDK and the anaphase-promoting complex) and cell-wall functions (through cell-wall extensibility or microtubule dynamics). Another intercellular signal mediated by microtubule dynamics is the mechanical stress caused by growth of interconnected cells. Superimposed on developmental controls, sugar signalling through the TOR pathway has recently emerged as a central control point linking cytoplasmic growth, cell-cycle and cell-wall functions. Recent progress in quantitative imaging and computational modelling will facilitate analysis of the multiple interconnections between plant cell growth and cell cycle and ultimately will be required for the predictive manipulation of plant growth.