Sum Insured Determination for Cereal, Citrus and Vineyards in the Spanish Agricultural Insurance System.

In general, insurance is a form of risk management used to hedge against a contingent loss. The conventional definition is the equitable transfer of a risk of loss from one entity to another in exchange for a premium or a guaranteed and quantifiable small loss to prevent a large and possibly devastating loss being agricultural insurance a special line of property insurance. Agriculture insurance, as actually are designed in the Spanish scenario, were established in 1978. At the macroeconomic insurance studies scale, it is necessary to know a basic element for the insurance actuarial components: sum insured. When a new risk assessment has to be evaluated in the insurance framework, it is essential to determinate venture capital in the total Spanish agriculture. In this study, three different crops (cereal, citrus and vineyards) cases are showed to determinate sum insured as they are representative of the cases found in the Spanish agriculture. Crop sum insured is calculated by the product of crop surface, unit surface production and crop price insured. In the cereal case, winter as spring cereal sowing, represents the highest Spanish crop surface, above to 6 millions of hectares (ha). Meanwhile, the four citrus species (oranges, mandarins, lemons and grapefruits) occupied an extension just over 275.000 ha. On the other hand, vineyard target to wine process shows almost one million of ha in Spain.

Development of a Strengths-Based Model for Insurance Automobile, Property, and Casualty Claims Operations

ABSTRACT \ Employers know that to have a successful organization, they must have the right people in the right jobs. But how will they know whom to place where? The development of a model based upon an individual's personality traits and strengths, and how to best use them, is a good place to start. Employees working in positions in which their traits and strengths are maximized enjoy work more, are more efficient, and are less apt to be absent or to look for work elsewhere. It is a mutually beneficial process of selection for both employers and employees. This model illustrates the process in an automobile and property insurance claims operation through utilization of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicators and the StrengthsFinder Profiles.

Property and casualty insurance.

Mode of access: Internet.

The distribution of unemployment insurance benefits and costs /

Bibliography: p. 189-193.

State solvency regulation of property-casualty and life insurance companies : a commission report.

Mode of access: Internet.

Advances in Dynamic Modeling and Computation for Count Data

A class of multi-process models is developed for collections of time indexed count data. Autocorrelation in counts is achieved with dynamic models for the natural parameter of the binomial distribution. In addition to modeling binomial time series, the framework includes dynamic models for multinomial and Poisson time series. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Po ́lya-Gamma data augmentation (Polson et al., 2013) are critical for fitting multi-process models of counts. To facilitate computation when the counts are high, a Gaussian approximation to the P ́olya- Gamma random variable is developed.

Three applied analyses are presented to explore the utility and versatility of the framework. The first analysis develops a model for complex dynamic behavior of themes in collections of text documents. Documents are modeled as a “bag of words”, and the multinomial distribution is used to characterize uncertainty in the vocabulary terms appearing in each document. State-space models for the natural parameters of the multinomial distribution induce autocorrelation in themes and their proportional representation in the corpus over time.

The second analysis develops a dynamic mixed membership model for Poisson counts. The model is applied to a collection of time series which record neuron level firing patterns in rhesus monkeys. The monkey is exposed to two sounds simultaneously, and Gaussian processes are used to smoothly model the time-varying rate at which the neuron’s firing pattern fluctuates between features associated with each sound in isolation.

The third analysis presents a switching dynamic generalized linear model for the time-varying home run totals of professional baseball players. The model endows each player with an age specific latent natural ability class and a performance enhancing drug (PED) use indicator. As players age, they randomly transition through a sequence of ability classes in a manner consistent with traditional aging patterns. When the performance of the player significantly deviates from the expected aging pattern, he is identified as a player whose performance is consistent with PED use.

All three models provide a mechanism for sharing information across related series locally in time. The models are fit with variations on the P ́olya-Gamma Gibbs sampler, MCMC convergence diagnostics are developed, and reproducible inference is emphasized throughout the dissertation.

Relative effect of food supplementation and natural resources on female red deer distribution in a Mediterranean ecosystem

Supplementary feeding is a widespread game management practice in several red deer (Cervus elaphus) populations, with important potential consequences on the biology of this species. InMediterranean ecosystems food supplementation occurs in the rutting period, when it may change mating system characteristics. We studied the role of food supplementation relative to natural resources in the spatial distribution, aggregation, and mean harem size of females in Iberian red deer (Cervus elaphus hispanicus) during the rut. We studied 30 red deer populations of southwestern Spain, 63% of which experienced supplementary feeding. Using multivariate spatial analyses we found that food supplementation affected distribution of females in 95% of the populations in which it occurred. Green meadows present during the mating season acted as an important natural resource influencing female distribution. Additionally, the level of female aggregation and mean harem size were significantly higher in those populations in which food supplementation determined female distribution than in populations in which female distribution did not depend on supplementary feeding. Because female aggregation and mean harem size are key elements in sexual selection, supplementary feeding may constitute an important anthropogenic element with potential evolutionary implications for populations of Iberian red deer.

A Log-Linear Regression Model for the Beta-Weibull Distribution

We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.

Periodontal attachment loss in an untreated isolated population of Brazil

Background: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence, extent, and severity of clinical attachment loss (CAL) and to investigate the association of demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral risk indicators with CAL in an untreated isolated population in Brazil. Methods: All subjects aged >= 12 years were identified by a census. Participants were submitted to a full-mouth clinical examination of six sites per tooth and were interviewed using a structured, written questionnaire. Results: Among the 214 subjects who were interviewed and examined clinically, CAL >= 5 mm in at least one site was observed in 8% of the 12- to 19-year-olds and in all dentate subjects >= 50 years of age; the age-dependent prevalence of CAL >= 7 mm in at least one site ranged from 5% among 12- to 19-year-olds to 83% among subjects >= 50 years old. Multivariate analysis identified plaque (odds ratio [OR] = 2.8), supragingival calculus (OR = 2.9 to 10.6), age >= 30 years (OR = 11.4), and smoking (OR = 2.4) as risk indicators for CAL >= 5 mm and smoking (OR = 8.2) as a risk indicator for CAL >= 7 mm. Conclusions: CAL is highly prevalent in this isolated population. The high occurrence of CAL in young age groups and the confirmation of traditional risk indicators for CAL in this study suggest that other factors, such as host susceptibility, may be needed to explain the high levels of CAL found. Age and behavioral factors were risk indicators associated significantly with the CAL found in this population and may be useful indicators of high-risk subjects for periodontal diseases.

Redes de distribuição de gás natural: projeto e desenvolvimento

Atualmente o gás natural é a principal fonte de energia utilizada pela maioria dos europeus nos setores doméstico, terciário e industrial. É considerado a alternativa energética do futuro e a mais ecologicamente correta de que podemos dispor, numa escala compatível com as elevadas necessidades energéticas da Humanidade a nível global. Aliado a estes factos, surgem cada vez mais regras de boa prática, normas e legislação, nomeadamente especificações técnicas de forma a regular o setor e dotar as entidades intervenientes na conceção e controlo de uma instalação de rede de gás, de um conhecimento mais detalhado e atualizado sobre esta matéria. Esta dissertação pretende assim contribuir para a melhoria e modernização do desempenho de todos os que exercem funções neste setor, com vista ao aperfeiçoamento da qualidade e utilidade dos seus serviços. Este trabalho reúne o conjunto de informação técnica presente na legislação e normas de forma a preencher a eventual falha do conhecimento neste ramo por parte destes profissionais dotando-os de um conhecimento mais aprofundado, de modo a que possam executar corretamente e de forma eficaz o seu trabalho. Por outro lado, esta dissertação tem como objetivo o projeto e desenvolvimento de uma rede de distribuição de gás natural aplicado a três redes concretas: rede de distribuição, edifício e moradia. A conceção do projeto de instalação de gás inicia-se com a recolha de informação, seguindo-se o desenvolvimento do estudo do traçado. Assim, estão reunidas as condições para dimensionar e providenciar a escolha de materiais mais adequados para a execução da obra. A metodologia de dimensionamento adotada teve por base a equação dos gases perfeitos e a fórmula de Renouard simplificada, encontrando-se implementada numa folha de cálculo. Esta ferramenta de cálculo aliada à metodologia permite realizar de forma expedita o correto dimensionamento de uma rede de gás, bem como apurar se a velocidade de escoamento se encontra em conformidade com o definido no projeto.

Defining health law or the edgewood syndrome

ABSTRACT - The authors’ main purpose is to present ideas on defining Health Law by highlighting the particularities of the field of Health Law as well as of the teaching of this legal branch, hoping to contribute to the maturity and academic recognition of Health Law, not only as a very rich legal field but also as a powerful social instrument in the fulfillment of fundamental human rights. The authors defend that Health Law has several characteristics that distinguish it from traditional branches of law such as its complexity and multidisciplinary nature. The study of Health Law normally covers issues such as access to care, health systems organization, patients’ rights, health professionals’ rights and duties, strict liability, healthcare contracts between institutions and professionals, medical data protection and confidentiality, informed consent and professional secrecy, crossing different legal fields including administrative, antitrust, constitutional, contract, corporate, criminal, environmental, food and drug, intellectual property, insurance, international and supranational, labor/employment, property, taxation, and tort law. This is one of the reasons why teaching Health Law presents a challenge to the teacher, which will have to find the programs, content and methods appropriate to the profile of recipients which are normally non jurists and the needs of a multidisciplinary curricula. By describing academic definitions of Health Law as analogous to Edgewood, a fiction house which has a different architectural style in each of its walls, the authors try to describe which elements should compose a more comprehensive definition. In this article Biolaw, Bioethics and Human Rights are defined as complements to a definition of Health Law: Biolaw because it is the legal field that treats the social consequences that arise from technological advances in health and life sciences; Bioethics which evolutions normally influence the shape of the legal framework of Health; and, finally Human Rights theory and declarations are outlined as having always been historically linked to medicine and health, being the umbrella that must cover all the issues raised in the area of Health Law. To complete this brief incursion on the definition on Health Law the authors end by giving note of the complex relations between this field of Law and Public Health. Dealing more specifically on laws adopted by governments to provide important health services and regulate industries and individual conduct that affect the health of the populations, this aspect of Health Law requires special attention to avoid an imbalance between public powers and individual freedoms. The authors conclude that public trust in any health system is essentially sustained by developing health structures which are consistent with essential fundamental rights, such as the universal right to access health care, and that the study of Health Law can contribute with important insights into both health structures and fundamental rights in order to foster a health system that respects the Rule of Law.-------------------------- RESUMO – O objectivo principal dos autores é apresentar ideias sobre a definição de Direito da Saúde, destacando as particularidades desta área do direito, bem como do ensino deste ramo jurídico, na esperança de contribuir para a maturidade e para o reconhecimento académico do mesmo, não só como um campo juridicamente muito rico, mas, também, como um poderoso instrumento social no cumprimento dos direitos humanos fundamentais. Os autores defendem que o Direito da Saúde tem diversas características que o distinguem dos ramos tradicionais do direito, como a sua complexidade e natureza multidisciplinar. O estudo do Direito da Saúde abrangendo normalmente questões como o acesso aos cuidados, a organização dos sistemas de saúde, os direitos e deveres dos doentes e dos profissionais de saúde, a responsabilidade civil, os contratos entre instituições de saúde e profissionais, a protecção e a confidencialidade de dados clínicos, o consentimento informado e o sigilo profissional, implica uma abordagem transversal de diferentes áreas legais, incluindo os Direitos contratual, administrativo, antitrust, constitucional, empresarial, penal, ambiental, alimentar, farmacêutico, da propriedade intelectual, dos seguros, internacional e supranacional, trabalho, fiscal e penal. Esta é uma das razões pelas quais o ensino do Direito da Saúde representa um desafio para o professor, que terá de encontrar os programas, conteúdos e métodos adequados ao perfil dos destinatários, que são normalmente não juristas e às necessidades de um currículo multidisciplinar. Ao descrever as várias definições académicas de Direito da Saúde como análogas a Edgewood, uma casa de ficção que apresenta um estilo arquitectónico diferente em cada uma de suas paredes, os autores tentam encontrar os elementos que deveriam compor uma definição mais abrangente. No artigo, Biodireito, Bioética e Direitos Humanos são descritos como complementos de uma definição de Direito da Saúde: o Biodireito, dado que é o campo jurídico que trata as consequências sociais que surgem dos avanços tecnológicos na área da saúde e das ciências da vida; a Bioética cujas evoluções influenciam normalmente o quadro jurídico da Saúde; e, por fim, a teoria dos Direitos Humanos e as suas declarações as quais têm estado sempre historicamente ligadas à medicina e à saúde, devendo funcionar como pano de fundo de todas as questões levantadas na área do Direito da Saúde. Para finalizar a sua breve incursão sobre a definição de Direito da Saúde, os autores dão ainda nota das complexas relações entre este último e a Saúde Pública, onde se tratam mais especificamente as leis aprovadas pelos governos para regular os serviços de saúde, as indústrias e as condutas individuais que afectam a saúde das populações, aspecto do Direito da Saúde que requer uma atenção especial para evitar um desequilíbrio entre os poderes públicos e as liberdades individuais. Os autores concluem afirmando que a confiança do público em qualquer sistema de saúde é, essencialmente, sustentada pelo desenvolvimento de estruturas de saúde que sejam consistentes com o direito constitucional da saúde, tais como o direito universal ao acesso a cuidados de saúde, e que o estudo do Direito da Saúde pode contribuir com elementos

Municipal distribution of bladder cancer mortality in Spain: Possible role of mining and industry

BACKGROUND Spain shows the highest bladder cancer incidence rates in men among European countries. The most important risk factors are tobacco smoking and occupational exposure to a range of different chemical substances, such as aromatic amines. METHODS This paper describes the municipal distribution of bladder cancer mortality and attempts to "adjust" this spatial pattern for the prevalence of smokers, using the autoregressive spatial model proposed by Besag, York and Molliè, with relative risk of lung cancer mortality as a surrogate. RESULTS It has been possible to compile and ascertain the posterior distribution of relative risk for bladder cancer adjusted for lung cancer mortality, on the basis of a single Bayesian spatial model covering all of Spain's 8077 towns. Maps were plotted depicting smoothed relative risk (RR) estimates, and the distribution of the posterior probability of RR>1 by sex. Towns that registered the highest relative risks for both sexes were mostly located in the Provinces of Cadiz, Seville, Huelva, Barcelona and Almería. The highest-risk area in Barcelona Province corresponded to very specific municipal areas in the Bages district, e.g., Suría, Sallent, Balsareny, Manresa and Cardona. CONCLUSION Mining/industrial pollution and the risk entailed in certain occupational exposures could in part be dictating the pattern of municipal bladder cancer mortality in Spain. Population exposure to arsenic is a matter that calls for attention. It would be of great interest if the relationship between the chemical quality of drinking water and the frequency of bladder cancer could be studied.

Microfabrics in carbonate mylonites along a large-scale shear zone (Helvetic Alps)

Carbonate mylonites with varying proportions of second-phase minerals were collected at positions of increasing metamorphic grade along the basal thrust of the Morcles nappe (Helvetic nappes, Switzerland). Variations of temperature, stress, and strain rate, changes in chemistry of solid and fluid phases, and differing degrees of strain localization and annealing were tracked by measuring the shapes, mean sizes, and size distributions of both matrix and second-phase grains, as well as crystal preferred orientation (CPO) of the matrix. Field structures suggest that strain rate was constant along the fault. The mean and distribution of the calcite grain sizes were affected most profoundly by temperature: Increased temperature, presumably accompanied by decreased stress, correlated with larger mean sizes and wider size distributions. At a given location, the matrix grains in mylonites with more second-phase particles are, on average, smaller, have narrower size distributions, and have more elongate shapes. For example, mylonites with 50 vol.% of second phases have matrix grain sizes half that of pure mylonites. Changes in calcite chemistry and the presence of synkinematic fluids seemed to influence microfabric only weakly. Temporal variations in conditions, such as exhumation-induced cooling, apparently provoke changes in temperature, stress, and strain rate along the nappe. These changes result in further strain localization during retrograde conditions and cause the grain size to be reduced by an additional 50%. The matrix CPO strengthens with increasing temperature or strain, but weakens and rotates with increasing second-phase content, These fabric changes suggest differing rates of grain growth, grain size reduction, and development of CPO owing to variations in the deformation conditions and, perhaps, mechanisms. To interpret natural mylonite structures or to extrapolate mechanical data to natural situations requires careful characterization of the microfabric, and, in particular, second-phase minerals. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V, All rights reserved.

Insurance with frequent trading

This paper looks at the dynamic management of risk in an economy with discrete time consumption and endowments and continuous trading. I study how agents in such an economy deal with all the risk in the economy and attain their Pareto optimal allocations by trading in a few natural securities: private insurance contracts and a common set of derivatives on the aggregate endowment. The parsimonious nature ofthe implied securities needed for Pareto optimality suggests that insuch contexts complete markets is a very reasonable assumption.

Effect of data acquisition accuracy on timing of stand harvests and expected net present value

Abstract