Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version–Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions.

Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation

The detection of anthropogenic climate change can be improved by recognising the seasonality in the climate change response. This is demonstrated for the North Atlantic jet (zonal wind at 850 hPa, U850) and European precipitation responses projected by the CMIP5 climate models. The U850 future response is characterised by a marked seasonality: an eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet into Europe in November-April, and a poleward shift in May-October. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the multi-model mean response in U850 in these two extended seasonal means emerges by 2035-2040 for the lower--latitude features and by 2050-2070 for the higher--latitude features, relative to the 1960-1990 climate. This is 5-15 years earlier than when evaluated in the traditional meteorological seasons (December--February, June--August), and it results from an increase in the signal to noise ratio associated with the spatial coherence of the response within the extended seasons. The annual mean response lacks important information on the seasonality of the response without improving the signal to noise ratio. The same two extended seasons are demonstrated to capture the seasonality of the European precipitation response to climate change and to anticipate its emergence by 10-20 years. Furthermore, some of the regional responses, such as the Mediterranean precipitation decline and the U850 response in North Africa in the extended winter, are projected to emerge by 2020-2025, according to the models with a strong response. Therefore, observations might soon be useful to test aspects of the atmospheric circulation response predicted by some of the CMIP5 models.

Response of the North Atlantic wave climate to atmospheric modes of variability

This study investigates the relationship between the wind wave climate and the main climate modes of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. The modes considered are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, the East Atlantic Western Russian (EA/WR) pattern and the Scandinavian (SCAN) pattern. The wave dataset consists of buoys records, remote sensing altimetry observations and a numerical hindcast providing significant wave height (SWH), mean wave period (MWP) and mean wave direction (MWD) for the period 1989–2009. After evaluating the reliability of the hindcast, we focus on the impact of each mode on seasonal wave parameters and on the relative importance of wind-sea and swell components. Results demonstrate that the NAO and EA patterns are the most relevant, whereas EA/WR and SCAN patterns have a weaker impact on the North Atlantic wave climate variability. During their positive phases, both NAO and EA patterns are related to winter SWH at a rate that reaches 1 m per unit index along the Scottish coast (NAO) and Iberian coast (EA) patterns. In terms of winter MWD, the two modes induce a counterclockwise shift of up to 65° per negative NAO (positive EA) unit over west European coasts. They also increase the winter MWP in the North Sea and in the Bay of Biscay (up to 1 s per unit NAO) and along the western coasts of Europe and North Africa (1 s per unit EA). The impact of winter EA pattern on all wave parameters is mostly caused through the swell wave component.

On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North Atlantic on ice sheet dynamics at the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

[1] Early and Mid-Pleistocene climate, ocean hydrography and ice sheet dynamics have been reconstructed using a high-resolution data set (planktonic and benthicδ18O time series, faunal-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions and ice-rafted debris (IRD)) record from a high-deposition-rate sedimentary succession recovered at the Gardar Drift formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Leg 306, Site U1314). Our sedimentary record spans from late in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 31 to MIS 19 (1069–779 ka). Different trends of the benthic and planktonic oxygen isotopes, SST and IRD records before and after MIS 25 (∼940 ka) evidence the large increase in Northern Hemisphere ice-volume, linked to the cyclicity change from the 41-kyr to the 100-kyr that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Beside longer glacial-interglacial (G-IG) variability, millennial-scale fluctuations were a pervasive feature across our study. Negative excursions in the benthicδ18O time series observed at the times of IRD events may be related to glacio-eustatic changes due to ice sheets retreats and/or to changes in deep hydrography. Time series analysis on surface water proxies (IRD, SST and planktonicδ18O) of the interval between MIS 31 to MIS 26 shows that the timing of these millennial-scale climate changes are related to half-precessional (10 kyr) components of the insolation forcing, which are interpreted as cross-equatorial heat transport toward high latitudes during both equinox insolation maxima at the equator.

Report of the Workshop on Growth-increment Chronologies in Marine Fish: climate-ecosystem interactions in the North Atlantic 2 (WKGIC2). 18-22 April 2016 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain

Over the past several decades, thousands of otoliths, bivalve shells, and scales have been collected for the purposes of age determination and remain archived in European and North American fisheries laboratories. Advances in digital imaging and computer software combined with techniques developed by tree-ring scientists provide a means by which to extract additional levels of information in these calcified structures and generate annually resolved (one value per year), multidecadal time-series of population-level growth anomalies. Chemical and isotopic properties may also be extracted to provide additional information regarding the environmental conditions these organisms experienced.Given that they are exactly placed in time, chronologies can be directly compared to instrumental climate records, chronologies from other regions or species, or time-seriesof other biological phenomena. In this way, chronologies may be used to reconstruct historical ranges of environmental variability, identify climatic drivers of growth, establish linkages within and among species, and generate ecosystem-level indicators. Following the first workshop in Hamburg, Germany, in December 2014, the second workshop on Growth increment Chronologies in Marine Fish: climate-ecosystem interactions in the North Atlantic (WKGIC2) met at the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies headquarters in Esporles, Spain, on 18–22 April 2016, chaired by Bryan Black (USA) and Christoph Stransky (Germany).Thirty-six participants from fifteen different countries attended. Objectives were to i) review the applications of chronologies developed from growth-increment widths in the hard parts (otoliths, shells, scales) of marine fish and bivalve species ii) review the fundamentals of crossdating and chronology development, iii) discuss assumptions and limitations of these approaches, iv) measure otolith growth-increment widths in image analysis software, v) learn software to statistically check increment dating accuracy, vi) generate a growth increment chronology and relate it to climate indices, and vii) initiate cooperative projects or training exercises to commence after the workshop.The workshop began with an overview of tree-ring techniques of chronology development, including a hands-on exercise in cross dating. Next, we discussed the applications of fish and bivalve biochronologies and the range of issues that could be addressed. We then reviewed key assumptions and limitations, especially those associated with short-lived species for which there are numerous and extensive otolith archives in European fisheries labs. Next, participants were provided with images of European plaice otoliths from the North Sea and taught to measure increment widths in image analysis software. Upon completion of measurements, techniques of chronology development were discussed and contrasted to those that have been applied for long-lived species. Plaice growth time-series were then related to environmental variability using the KNMI Climate Explorer. Finally, potential future collaborations and funding opportunities were discussed, and there was a clear desire to meet again to compare various statistical techniques for chronology development using a range existing fish, bivalve, and tree growth-increment datasets. Overall, we hope to increase the use of these techniques, and over the long term, develop networks of biochronologies for integrative analyses of ecosystem functioning and relationships to long-term climate variability and fishing pressure.

Recent droughts and the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation in Iberia; a spatiotemporal analysis based on vegetation temperature condition Index (VTCI)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Hydrological evidence for a North Atlantic oscillation during the Little Ice Age outside its range observed since 1850.

An annual-resolved precipitation reconstruction for the last 800 yr in Southern Spain has been performed using stable carbon isotope (δ13C) of Pinus nigra tree rings. The reconstruction exhibits high- to low-frequency variability and distinguishes a Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 13501850) characterized by lower averaged rainfall than both in the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the LIA and in the 20th century. The driest conditions are recorded during the Maunder solar Minimum (mid 17thearly 18th centuries), in good agreement with the Spanish documentary archive. Similar linkage between solar activity (maximum/minimum) and precipitation (increase/decrease) is observed throughout the entire LIA. Additionally, the relationship between the hydrological pattern in the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco during the LIA suggests different spatial distribution of precipitation in the south-eastern sector of the North Atlantic region such as it is known currently. Whereas in the instrumental record the precipitation evolves similarly in both regions and opposite to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index, the coldest periods of the LIA shows a contrasting pattern with drier conditions in the South of Spain and wetter in Northern Africa. We suggest an extreme negative NAO conditions, accompanied by a southward excursion of the winter rainfall band beyond that observed in the last century, can explain this contrast. The sustained NAO conditions could have been triggered by solar minima and higher volcanic activity during the LIA.

The impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the atmospheric pollutant variability in the Porto region, Portugal

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an important large-scale atmospheric circulation that influences the European countries climate. This study evaluated NAO impact in air quality in Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA), Portugal, for the period 2002-2006. NAO, air pollutants and meteorological data were statistically analyzed. All data were obtained from PMA Weather Station, PMA Air Quality Stations and NOAA analysis. Two statistical methods were applied in different time scale : principal component and correlation coefficient. Annual time scale, using multivariate analysis (PCA, principal component analysis), were applied in order to identified positive and significant association between air pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, CO, NO and NO2, with NAO. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient using seasonal time scale were also applied to the same data. The results of PCA analysis present a general negative significant association between the total precipitation and NAO, in Factor 1 and 2 (explaining around 70% of the variance), presented in the years of 2002, 2004 and 2005. During the same years, some air pollutants (such as PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NOx and CO) present also a positive association with NAO. The O3 shows as well a positive association with NAP during 2002 and 2004, at 2nd Factor, explaining 30% of the variance. From the seasonal analysis using correlation coefficient, it was found significant correlation between PM10 (0.72., p<0.05, in 2002), PM2.5 (0 74, p<0.05, in 2004), and SO2 (0.78, p<0.01, in 2002) with NAO during March-December (no winter period) period. Significant associations between air pollutants and NAO were also verified in the winter period (December to April) mainly with ozone (2005, r=-0.55, p.<0.01). Once that human health and hospital morbidities may be affected by air pollution, the results suggest that NAO forecast can be an important tool to prevent them, in the Iberian Peninsula and specially Portugal.

Tropical and extratropical responses of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation to a sustained weakening of the MOC

The tropospheric response to a forced shutdown of the North Atlantic Ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated in a coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM [the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3)]. The strength of the boreal winter North Atlantic storm track is significantly increased and penetrates much farther into western Europe. The changes in the storm track are shown to be consistent with the changes in near-surface baroclinicity, which can be linked to changes in surface temperature gradients near regions of sea ice formation and in the open ocean. Changes in the SST of the tropical Atlantic are linked to a strengthening of the subtropical jet to the north, which, combined with the enhanced storm track, leads to a pronounced split in the jet structure over Europe. EOF analysis and stationary box indices methods are used to analyze changes to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). There is no consistent signal of a change in the variability of the NAO, and while the changes in the mean flow project onto the positive NAO phase, they are significantly different from it. However, there is a clear eastward shift of the NAO pattern in the shutdown run, and this potentially has implications for ocean circulation and for the interpretation of proxy paleoclimate records.

North Atlantic subtropical mode waters and ocean memory in HadCM3

A study of the formation and propagation of volume anomalies in North Atlantic Mode Waters is presented, based on 100 yr of monthly mean fields taken from the control run of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). Analysis of the temporal and. spatial variability in the thickness between pairs of isothermal surfaces bounding the central temperature of the three main North Atlantic subtropical mode waters shows that large-scale variability in formation occurs over time scales ranging from 5 to 20 yr. The largest formation anomalies are associated with a southward shift in the mixed layer isothermal distribution, possibly due to changes in the gyre dynamics and/or changes in the overlying wind field and air-sea heat fluxes. The persistence of these anomalies is shown to result from their subduction beneath the winter mixed layer base where they recirculate around the subtropical gyre in the background geostrophic flow. Anomalies in the warmest mode (18 degrees C) formed on the western side of the basin persist for up to 5 yr. They are removed by mixing transformation to warmer classes and are returned to the seasonal mixed layer near the Gulf Stream where the stored heat may be released to the atmosphere. Anomalies in the cooler modes (16 degrees and 14 degrees C) formed on the eastern side of the basin persist for up to 10 yr. There is no clear evidence of significant transformation of these cooler mode anomalies to adjacent classes. It has been proposed that the eastern anomalies are removed through a tropical-subtropical water mass exchange mechanism beneath the trade wind belt (south of 20 degrees N). The analysis shows that anomalous mode water formation plays a key role in the long-term storage of heat in the model, and that the release of heat associated with these anomalies suggests a predictable climate feedback mechanism.

Atlantic climate variability and predictability: A CLIVAR perspective

Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.

The effect of a large freshwater perturbation on the glacial north Atlantic Ocean using a coupled general circulation model

The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the "strength of the overturning circulation" is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors' model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project's reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.