How community ecology links natural mortality, growth, and production of fish populations

Size-spectrum theory is used to show that (i) predation mortality is a decreasing function of individual size and proportional to the consumption rate of predators; (ii) adult natural mortality M is proportional to the von Bertalanffy growth constant K; and (iii) productivity rate P/B is proportional to the asymptotic weight W8 -1/3. The constants of proportionality are specified using individual level parameters related to physiology or prey encounter. The derivations demonstrate how traditional fisheries theory can be connected to community ecology. Implications for the use of models for ecosystem-based fisheries management are discussed.

Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Since tumour burden consumes substantial healthcare resources, precise cancer incidence estimations are pivotal to define future needs of national healthcare. This study aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates of oesophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatic and colorectal cancers up to 2030 in Switzerland. METHODS: Swiss Statistics provides national incidences and mortality rates of various cancers, and models of future developments of the Swiss population. Cancer incidences and mortality rates from 1985 to 2009 were analysed to estimate trends and to predict incidence and mortality rates up to 2029. Linear regressions and Joinpoint analyses were performed to estimate the future trends of incidences and mortality rates. RESULTS: Crude incidences of oesophageal, pancreas, liver and colorectal cancers have steadily increased since 1985, and will continue to increase. Gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates reveal an ongoing decrease. Pancreatic and liver cancer crude mortality rates will keep increasing, whereas colorectal cancer mortality on the contrary will fall. Mortality from oesophageal cancer will plateau or minimally increase. If we consider European population-standardised incidence rates, oesophageal, pancreatic and colorectal cancer incidences are steady. Gastric cancers are diminishing and liver cancers will follow an increasing trend. Standardised mortality rates show a diminution for all but liver cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The oncological burden of gastrointestinal cancer will significantly increase in Switzerland during the next two decades. The crude mortality rates globally show an ongoing increase except for gastric and colorectal cancers. Enlarged healthcare resources to take care of these complex patient groups properly will be needed.

Trends in systemic lupus erythematosus mortality rates in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil from 1985 to 2004

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and mortality trends from SLE in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Material and methods The official data bank was used to study all deaths occurred from 1985 to 2004 in which SLE was mentioned as the underlying cause of death. Besides the overall mortality rate, the annual gender- and age-specific mortality rates were estimated for each calendar year by age bracket (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years and over 60 years) and for the sub-periods 1985-1995 (first) and 1996-2004 (second), by decades. Chi-square test was used to compare the mortality rates between the two periods, as well the mortality rates according to educational level considering years of study. Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to analyse mortality trends. The crude rates were adjusted for age by the direct method, using the standard Brazilian population in 2000. Results A total of 2,601 deaths (90% female) attributed to SLE were analysed. The mean age at death was significantly higher in the second than in the first sub-period (36.6 +/- 15.6 years vs. 33.9 +/- 14.0 years; p<0.001). The overall adjusted mortality rate was 3.8 deaths/million habitants/year for the entire period and 3.4 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the first and 4.0 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the second sub-period (p<0.001). In each calendar year, the mortality rate was significantly lower for the better educated group. Throughout the period, there was a significant increase in mortality rates only among women over 40. Conclusion SLE patients living in the state of Silo Paulo still die at younger ages than those living in developed countries. Our data do not support the theory that there was an improvement in the SLE mortality rate in the last 20 years in the state of Sao Paulo. Socio-economic factors, such as the difficulty to get medical care and adequate treatment, may be the main factors to explain the worst prognosis for our patients.

Mortality rates, prevalence of malnutrition, and prevalence of lost pregnancies among the drought-ravaged population of Tete province Mozambique

Background: Tete Province, Mozambique has experienced chronic food insecurity and a dramatic fall in livestock numbers due to the cyclic problems characterized by the floods in 2000 and severe droughts in 2002 and 2003. The Province has been a beneficiary of emergency relief programs, which have assisted >22% of the population. However, these programs were not based on sound epidemiological data, and they have not established baseline data against which to assess the impact of the programs. Objective: The objective of this study was to document mortality rates, causes of death, the prevalence of malnutrition, and the prevalence of lost pregnancies after 2.5 years of humanitarian response to the crisis. Methods: A two-stage, 30-cluster household survey was conducted in the Cahora Bassa and Changara districts from 22 October to 08 November 2004. A total of 838 households were surveyed, with a population size of 4,688 people. Results: Anthropometric data were collected among children 6-59 months of age. In addition, crude mortality rates (CMRs), under five mortality rates (U5MRs), causes of deaths, and prevalence of lost pregnancies were determined among the sample population. The prevalence of malnutrition was 8.0% (95% confidence interval (CI)=6.2-9.8%) for acute malnutrition, 26.9% (95% CI=24.0-29.9%) for being underweight, and 37.0% (95% CI=33.8-40.2%) for chronic malnutrition. Boys were more likely to be underweight than were girls (odds ratio (OR)=1.34; 95% CI=1.00, 1.82; p<0.05) after controlling for age, household size, and food aid beneficiary status. Similarly, children 30-59 months of age were significantly less likely to suffer from acute malnutrition (OR=0.45; 95% CI=0.26, 0.79; p<0.01) and less likely to be underweight (OR=0.37; 95% CI=0.27, 0.51; p<0.01) than children 6-29 months of age, after adjusting for the other, aforementioned factors. The proportion of lost pregnancies was estimated at 7.7% (95% CI=4.5-11.0%). A total of 215 deaths were reported during the year preceding the survey. Thirty-nine (18.1%) children <5 years of age died. The CMR was 1.23/10 000/day (95% CI=1.08-1.38), and an U5MR was 1.03/10 000/day (95% CI=0.71-1.35). Diarrheal diseases, malaria, tuberculosis, and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) accounted for more than two-thirds of all deaths. Conclusions: The observed CMR in Tete Province, Mozambique is three times higher than the baseline rate for sub-Saharan Africa and 1.4 times higher than the CMR cut-off point used to define excess mortality in emergencies. The current humanitarian response in Tete Province would benefit from an improved alignment of food aid programming in conjunction with diarrheal disease control, HIV/AIDS, and malaria prevention and treatment programs. The impact of the food programs would be improved if mutually acceptable food aid programme objectives, verifiable indicators relevant to each objective, and beneficiary targets and selection criteria are developed. Periodic re-assessments and evaluations of the impact of the program and evidenced-based decision-making urgently are needed to avert a chronic dependency on food aid.

Coronary heart disease trends in England and Wales from 1984 to 2004 : concealed levelling of mortality rates among young adults

Background: Trends in cardiovascular risk factors among UK adults present a complex picture. Ominous increases in obesity and diabetes among young adults raise concerns about subsequent coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in this group.

Objective: To examine recent trends in age-specific mortality rates from CHD, particularly those among younger adults.

Methods and results: Mortality data from 1984 to 2004 were used to calculate age-specific mortality rates for British adults aged 35+ years, and joinpoint regression was used to assess changes in trends. Overall, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased by 54.7% in men and by 48.3% in women. However, among men aged 35–44 years, CHD mortality rates in 2002 increased for the first time in over two decades. Furthermore, the recent declines in CHD mortality rates seem to be slowing in both men and women aged 45–54. Among older adults, however, mortality rates continued to decrease steadily throughout the period.

Conclusions: The flattening mortality rates for CHD among younger adults may represent a sentinel event. Deteriorations in medical management of CHD appear implausible. Thus, unfavourable trends in risk factors for CHD, specifically obesity and diabetes, provide the most likely explanation for the observed trends.

An index of unhealthy lifestyle is associated with coronary heart disease mortality rates for small areas in England after adjustment for deprivation

Indices of socio-economic deprivation are often used as a proxy for differences in the health behaviours of populations within small areas, but these indices are a measure of the economic environment rather than the health environment. Sets of synthetic estimates of the ward-level prevalence of low fruit and vegetable consumption, obesity, raised blood pressure, raised cholesterol and smoking were combined to develop an index of unhealthy lifestyle. Multi-level regression models showed that this index described about 50% of the large-scale geographic variation in CHD mortality rates in England, and substantially adds to the ability of an index of deprivation to explain geographic variations in CHD mortality rates.

Contribution of climate and air pollution to variation in coronary heart disease mortality rates in England

There are substantial geographic variations in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in England that may in part be due to differences in climate and air pollution. An ecological cross-sectional multi-level analysis of male and female CHD mortality rates in all wards in England (1999–2004) was conducted to estimate the relative strength of the association between CHD mortality rates and three aspects of the physical environment - temperature, hours of sunshine and air quality. Models were adjusted for deprivation, an index measuring the healthiness of the lifestyle of populations, and urbanicity. In the fully adjusted model, air quality was not significantly associated with CHD mortality rates, but temperature and sunshine were both significantly negatively associated (p<0.05), suggesting that CHD mortality rates were higher in areas with lower average temperature and hours of sunshine. After adjustment for the unhealthy lifestyle of populations and deprivation, the climate variables explained at least 15% of large scale variation in CHD mortality rates. The results suggest that the climate has a small but significant independent association with CHD mortality rates in England.

Age-specific trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in Australia between 1980 and 2005

Aim: Recent analyses suggest the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates is slowing in younger age groups in countries such as the UK and US. We aimed to assess recent mortality rate trends in all circulatory disease and its subtypes in Australia.

Methods: Annual all circulatory, CHD, and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates between 1980 and 2005 for Australia were analysed. Data were stratified by sex and ten-year age group (age 35 to 85+). The annual rate of change and significant changes in trends were identified using joinpoint Poisson regression.

Results: Age standardised all circulatory disease mortality rates continue to decline in Australia, falling from 441 per 100,000 in 1980 to 145 per 100,000 in 2005 for males and from 264 per 100,000 to 96 per 100,000 for females. The rate of decline from both CHD and cerebrovascular disease appears to be stable or accelerating for individuals aged 55 years and over. However, the decline in young men and women aged 35-54 years is slowing for CHD and cerebrovascular disease mortality alike (except cerebrovascular disease mortality in males aged 35-44). For females aged 35-44 and 45-54 there has been no change in the cerebrovascular mortality rate since 1993 and 1999, respectively.

Conclusions: In Australia, whilst in older adults the decline in cardiovascular mortality rates is generally accelerating, in younger adults it appears to be slowing. It will be important to identify the causes of these trends.

Age-specific trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in the Netherlands between 1980 and 2009

Recent analyses suggest the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates is slowing in younger age groups in countries such as the US and the UK. This work aimed to analyse recent trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in the Netherlands. Analysis was of annual all circulatory, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates between 1980 and 2009 for the Netherlands. Data were stratified by sex and 10-year age group (age 35–85+). The annual rate of change and significant changes in the trend were identified using joinpoint Poisson regression. For almost all age and sex groups examined the rate of IHD and cerebrovascular disease mortality in the Netherlands has more than halved between 1980 and 2009. The decline in mortality from both IHD and cerebrovascular disease is continuing for all ages and sex groups, with anacceleration in the decline apparent from the late 1990s/early 2000s. The decline in age-specific all circulatory, coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates continues for all age and sex groups in the Netherlands.

Characterization of heat waves affecting mortality rates of broilers between 29 days and market age

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Are you experienced? Predator type and predator experience trade-offs in relation to tadpole mortality rates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of ambulatory versus hospital treatment for gestational diabetes or hyperglycemia on infant mortality rates: a systematic review

CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO:Gestações complicadas pelo diabetes estão associadas com aumento das complicações neonatais e maternas. A complicação mais grave materna é o risco de desenvolver diabetes tipo 2 após 10-12 anos do parto. Para o controle rigoroso da glicose no sangue, as mulheres grávidas são tratadas de forma ambulatorial ou com internações hospitalares. O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar a efetividade do tratamento ambulatorial versus hospitalização em gestações complicadas por diabetes ou hiperglicemia.TIPO DE ESTUDO E LOCAL:Revisão sistemática conduzida em hospital universitário público.MÉTODOS:Uma revisão sistemática da literatura foi realizada e as principais bases de dados eletrônicas foram pesquisadas. A data da pesquisa mais recente foi 4 de setembro de 2011. Dois autores selecionaram independentemente os ensaios clínicos relevantes, avaliaram a qualidade metodológica e extraíram os dados.RESULTADOS:Apenas três estudos foram selecionados, com tamanho de amostra pequeno. Não houve diferença estatisticamente significativa entre o tratamento ambulatorial versus hospitalização em relação à mortalidade em nenhuma das subcategorias analisadas: mortes perinatais e neonatais, (risco relativo [RR] 0,65; 95% de intervalo de confiança [IC] 0,11-3,84, P = 0,63); morte neonatal (RR 0,29, IC 95% 0,01-6,07, P = 0,43), e óbitos infantis (RR 0,29, IC 95% 0,01-6,07, P = 0,43).CONCLUSÕES:Com base em estudos com risco de viés alto ou moderado, esta revisão demonstrou que não há diferença estatisticamente significante entre o tratamento ambulatorial comparado com o hospitalar na redução das taxas de mortalidade em gestações complicadas por diabetes ou hiperglicemia. Esta revisão sistemática também sugere a necessidade de mais ensaios clínicos randomizados sobre o assunto.