Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

Mixing compositions and other scales

Theory of compositional data analysis is often focused on the composition only. However in practical applications we often treat a composition together with covariables with some other scale. This contribution systematically gathers and develop statistical tools for this situation. For instance, for the graphical display of the dependence of a composition with a categorical variable, a colored set of ternary diagrams might be a good idea for a first look at the data, but it will fast hide important aspects if the composition has many parts, or it takes extreme values. On the other hand colored scatterplots of ilr components could not be very instructive for the analyst, if the conventional, black-box ilr is used. Thinking on terms of the Euclidean structure of the simplex, we suggest to set up appropriate projections, which on one side show the compositional geometry and on the other side are still comprehensible by a non-expert analyst, readable for all locations and scales of the data. This is e.g. done by defining special balance displays with carefully- selected axes. Following this idea, we need to systematically ask how to display, explore, describe, and test the relation to complementary or explanatory data of categorical, real, ratio or again compositional scales. This contribution shows that it is sufficient to use some basic concepts and very few advanced tools from multivariate statistics (principal covariances, multivariate linear models, trellis or parallel plots, etc.) to build appropriate procedures for all these combinations of scales. This has some fundamental implications in their software implementation, and how might they be taught to analysts not already experts in multivariate analysis

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Relationships between gluten rheological properties and hearth loaf characteristics

The rheological properties of fresh gluten in small amplitude oscillation in shear (SAOS) and creep recovery after short application of stress was related to the hearth breadbaking performance of wheat flours using the multivariate statistics partial least squares (PLS) regression. The picture was completed by dough mixing and extensional properties, flour protein size distribution determined by SE-HPLC, and high molecular weight glutenin subunit (HMW-GS) composition. The sample set comprised 20 wheat cultivars grown at two different levels of nitrogen fertilizer in one location. Flours yielding stiffer and more elastic glutens, with higher elastic and viscous moduli (G' and G") and lower tan 8 values in SAOS, gave doughs that were better able to retain their shape during proving and baking, resulting in breads of high form ratios. Creep recovery measurements after short application of stress showed that glutens from flours of good breadmaking quality had high relative elastic recovery. The nitrogen fertilizer level affected the protein size distribution by an increase in monomeric proteins (gliadins), which gave glutens of higher tan delta and flatter bread loaves (lower form ratio).

Analysis of time-related metabolic fluctuations induced by ethionine in the rat

The time-course of metabolic events following response to a model hepatotoxin ethionine (800 mg/kg) was investigated over a 7 day period in rats using high-resolution (1)H NMR spectroscopic analysis of urine and multivariate statistics. Complementary information was obtained by multivariate analysis of (1)H MAS NMR spectra of intact liver and by conventional histopathology and clinical chemistry of blood plasma. (1)H MAS NMR spectra of liver showed toxin-induced lipidosis 24 h postdose consistent with the steatosis observed by histopathology, while hypertaurinuria was suggestive of liver injury. Early biochemical changes in urine included elevation of guanidinoacetate, suggesting impaired methylation reactions. Urinary increases in 5-oxoproline and glycine suggested disruption of the gamma-glutamyl cycle. Signs of ATP depletion together with impairment of the energy metabolism were given from the decreased levels in tricarboxylic acid cycle intermediates, the appearance of ketone bodies in urine, the depletion of hepatic glucose and glycogen, and also hypoglycemia. The observed increase in nicotinuric acid in urine could be an indication of an increase in NAD catabolism, a possible consequence of ATP depletion. Effects on the gut microbiota were suggested by the observed urinary reductions in the microbial metabolites 3-/4-hydroxyphenyl propionic acid, dimethylamine, and tryptamine. At later stages of toxicity, there was evidence of kidney damage, as indicated by the tubular damage observed by histopathology, supported by increased urinary excretion of lactic acid, amino acids, and glucose. These studies have given new insights into mechanisms of ethionine-induced toxicity and show the value of multisystem level data integration in the understanding of experimental models of toxicity or disease.

Environmental controls on the distribution and diversity of lentic Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) across an altitudinal gradient in tropical South America

To predict the response of aquatic ecosystems to future global climate change, data on the ecology and distribution of keystone groups in freshwater ecosystems are needed. In contrast to mid- and high-latitude zones, such data are scarce across tropical South America (Neotropics). We present the distribution and diversity of chironomid species using surface sediments of 59 lakes from the Andes to the Amazon (0.1–17°S and 64–78°W) within the Neotropics. We assess the spatial variation in community assemblages and identify the key variables influencing the distributional patterns. The relationships between environmental variables (pH, conductivity, depth, and sediment organic content), climatic data, and chironomid assemblages were assessed using multivariate statistics (detrended correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis). Climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) were most significant in describing the variance in chironomid assemblages. Temperature and precipitation are both predicted to change under future climate change scenarios in the tropical Andes. Our findings suggest taxa of Orthocladiinae, which show a preference to cold high-elevation oligotrophic lakes, will likely see range contraction under future anthropogenic-induced climate change. Taxa abundant in areas of high precipitation, such as Micropsectra and Phaenopsectra, will likely become restricted to the inner tropical Andes, as the outer tropical Andes become drier. The sensitivity of chironomids to climate parameters makes them important bio-indicators of regional climate change in the Neotropics. Furthermore, the distribution of chironomid taxa presented here is a vital first step toward providing urgently needed autecological data for interpreting fossil chironomid records of past ecological and climate change from the tropical Andes.

An empirical analysis of gender differences in sports attendance motives

In Australia, male sports attendees outnumber female sports attendees by 25%, yet little research has been conducted into the attendance motives of women. This study undertakes an analysis of 460 respondents using descriptive and multivariate statistics to distinguish the attendance motivations of women and compare them directly to those of male attendees. The findings suggest that female attendance can be influenced through management and promotional strategies.

Correlates of screening mammography for Italian and Anglo-Australian women

The first aim of the research was to determine the applicability of certain variables from the Health Belief Model (HBM), the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), the risk dimensions from the Psychometric Paradigm, the Common-Sense Model of Illness Representations and the Locus of Control to Italian women’s beliefs and behaviours in relation to screening mammography. These models have predominantly been derived and evaluated with English-speaking persons. The study used quantitative and qualitative methods to enable explanation of research-driven and participant-driven issues. The second aim was to include Italian women in health behaviour research and to contrast the Italian sample with the Anglo-Australian sample to determine if differences exist in relation to their beliefs. In Australia many studies in health behaviour research do not include women whose first language is not English. The third aim was to evaluate the Anti-Cancer Council of Victoria’s (ACCV) Community Language Program (CLP) by: (a) identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the program as seen by the participants; and (b) assessing the impact of the program on women’s knowledge and beliefs about breast cancer, early detection of breast cancer, self-reported and intended breast screening behaviours. The CLP is an information service that uses women’s first language to convey information to women whose first language is not English. The CLP was designed to increase knowledge about breast and cervical cancer. The research used a pre-test-intervention-post-test design with 174 Italian-born and 138 Anglo-Australian women aged 40 years and over. Interviews for the Italian sample were conducted in Italian. The intervention was an information session that related to breast health and screening mammography. Demographic variables were collected in the Pre-Test only. Qualitative open-ended questions that related specifically to the information session were collected in the Post-Test phase of the study. Direct logistic regression was used with the participants’ beliefs and behaviours to identify the relevant variables for language (Italian speaking and English-speaking), attendance to an information session, mammography screening and breast self-examination (BSE) behaviour. Pre- and Post-Test comparisons were conducted using chi-square tests for the non-parametric data and paired sample t-tests for the parametric data. Differences were found between the Italian and Anglo-Australian women in relation to their beliefs about breast cancer screening. The Italian women were: (1) more likely to state that medical experts understood the causes of breast cancer; (2) more likely to feel that they had less control over their personal risk of getting breast cancer; (3) more likely to be upset and frightened by thinking about breast cancer; (4) less likely to perceive breast cancer as serious; (4) more likely to only do what their doctor told them to do; and (5) less likely to agree that there were times when a person has cancer and they don’t know it. A pattern emerged for the Italian and Anglo-Australian women from the logistic regression analyses. The Italian women were much more likely to comply with medical authority and advice. The Anglo-Australian women were more likely to feel that they had some control over their health. Specifically, the risk variable ‘dread’ was more applicable to the Italian women’s behaviour and internal locus of control variable was more relevant to the Anglo-Australian women. The qualitative responses also differed for the two samples. The Italian women’s comments were more general, less specific, and more limited than that of the Anglo-Australian women. The Italian women talked about learning how to do BSE whereas the Anglo-Australian women said that attending the session had reminded them to do BSE more regularly. The key findings and contributions of the present research were numerous. The focus on one cultural group ensured comprehensive analyses, as did the inclusion of an adequate sample size to enable the use of multivariate statistics. Separating the Italian and Anglo-Australian samples in the analyses provided theoretical implications that would have been overlooked if the two groups were combined. The use of both qualitative and quantitative data capitalised on the strengths of both techniques. The inclusion of an Anglo-Australian group highlighted key theoretical findings, differences between the two groups and unique contributions made by both samples during the collection of the qualitative data. The use of a pre-test-intervention-post-test design emphasised the reticence of the Italian sample to participate and talk about breast cancer and confirmed and validated the consistency of the responses across the two interviews for both samples. The inclusion of non-cued responses allowed the researcher to identify the key salient issues relevant to the two groups. The limitations of the present research were the lack of many women who were not screening and reliance on self-report responses, although few differences were observed between the Pre- and Post-Test comparisons. The theoretical contribution of the HBM and the TRA variables was minimal in relation to screening mammography or attendance at the CLP. The applicability of these health behaviour theories may be less relevant for women today as they clearly knew the benefits of and the seriousness of breast cancer screening. The present research identified the applicability of the risk variables to the Italian women and the relevance of the locus of control variables to the Anglo-Australian women. Thus, clear cultural differences occurred between the two groups. The inclusion of the illness representations was advantageous as the responses highlighted ideas and personal theories salient to the women not identified by the HBM. The use of the illness representations and the qualitative responses further confirmed the relevance of the risk variables to the Italian women and the locus of control variables to the Anglo-Australian women. Attendance at the CLP did not influence the women to attend for mammography screening. Behavioural changes did not occur between the Pre- and Post-Test interviews. Small incremental changes as defined by the TTM and the stages of change may have occurred. Key practical implications for the CLP were identified. Improving the recruitment methods to gain a higher proportion of women who do not screen is imperative for the CLP promoters. The majority of the Italian and Anglo-Australian women who attended the information sessions were women who screen. The fact that Italian women do not like talking or thinking about cancer presents a challenge to promoters of the CLP. The key theoretical finding that Italian women dread breast cancer but comply with their doctor provides clear strategies to improve attendance at mammography screening. In addition, the inclusion of lay health advisors may be one way of increasing attendance to the CLP by including Italian women already attending screening and likely to have attended a CLP session. The present research identified the key finding that improving Anglo-Australian attendance at an information session is related to debunking the myth surrounding familial risk of breast cancer and encouraging the Anglo-Australian women to take more control of their health. Improving attendance for Italian women is related to reducing the fear and dread of breast cancer and building on the compliance pattern with medical authority. Therefore, providing an information session in the target language is insufficient to attract non-screeners to the session and then to screen for breast cancer. Suggestions for future research in relation to screening mammography were to include variables from more than one theory or model, namely the risk, locus of control and illness representations. The inclusion of non-cued responses to identify salient beliefs is advantageous. In addition, it is imperative to describe the profile of the cultural sample in detail, include detailed descriptions of the translation process and be aware of the tendency of Italian women to acquiesce with medical authority.

O desenvolvimento da análise financeira nos últimos anos

A Análise Financeira dos Índices tem sido usada largamente, desde o fim do século passado na avaliação das demonstrações financeiras; no entanto, encontrou-se desacreditada por volta dos anos 60. Assim, por essa época, Beaver; baseando-se na literatura existente, testa empiricamente muitas crenças tidas como verdadeiras e chega a resultados diferentes. Para isso, utilizou-se de metodologia estatística univariada, isto é, analisou cada índice isoladamente. Altman refuta a metodologia usada por Beaver e cria um modelo utilizando se da estatística multivariada, isto é, vários Índices são estudados, estabelecendo um score limite. Outros autores, baseando-se nestes dois estudos, ora criticando, ora comparando, montam outros modelos. Assim temos: Deakin, Blum, Libby, Kennedy, Kanitz, Zappa, Collongues, Conan, Holder, C.E.S.A. e outros que não foram mencionados neste trabalho. Este estudo mostrou o trabalho de cada autor individualmente e, num segundo momento, apresentou críticas e comparações sofridas por esses modelos, procurando evidenciar que essas críticas e comparações serviram para estimular o desenvolvimento da Análise Financeira, a tal ponto que pode-se citar Altman que, devido a críticas e também ao seu interesse em atualizar os dados, reformula o seu modelo original (1968), criando o modelo Zeta (1977). A segunda preocupação deste trabalho foi evidenciar alguns pontos que puderam ser colhidos do material disponível. Assim, procurou-se responder quais os Índices que mais foram usados pelos modelos e, como conclusão, chegou-se a evidência de que não existem alguns poucos índices que melhor discriminem uma empresa falida e não falida. Outra indagação foi, se esses modelos serviriam para todos os tipos e tamanhos de empresas, e concluiu-se que servem, desde que o analista os adapte às suas necessidades peculiares. E, por fim, procurou-se verificar a que finalidade esses modelos podiam corresponder. E, assim, apontou-se a análise de crédito comercial, para investimento, para decisões internas, para compra e venda de ações etc. Conclui-se, pois, que os vários modelos desenvolvidos nestes últimos anos, realmente trouxeram progresso à Análise Financeira, mas que esses resultados devem ser cuidadosa mente adaptados às diversas realidades e mais, dado ao desenvolvimento de outras ciências, podem somar-se esforços com intuito de alcançar um maior desenvolvimento.

Solid phase microextraction, mass spectrometry and metabolomic approaches for detection of potential urinary cancer biomarkers: a powerful strategy for breast cancer diagnosis

A sensitive assay to identify volatile organic metabolites (VOMs) as biomarkers that can accurately diagnose the onset of breast cancer using non-invasively collected clinical specimens is ideal for early detection. Therefore the aim of this study was to establish the urinary metabolomic profile of breast cancer patients and healthy individuals (control group) and to explore the VOMs as potential biomarkers in breast cancer diagnosis at early stage. Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) using CAR/PDMS sorbent combined with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry was applied to obtain metabolomic information patterns of 26 breast cancer patients and 21 healthy individuals (controls). A total of seventy-nine VOMs, belonging to distinct chemical classes, were detected and identified in control and breast cancer groups. Ketones and sulfur compounds were the chemical classes with highest contribution for both groups. Results showed that excretion values of 6 VOMs among the total of 79 detected were found to be statistically different (p < 0.05). A significant increase in the peak area of (−)-4-carene, 3-heptanone, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, 2-methoxythiophene and phenol, in VOMs of cancer patients relatively to controls was observed. Statiscally significant lower abundances of dimethyl disulfide were found in cancer patients. Bioanalytical data were submitted to multivariate statistics [principal component analysis (PCA)], in order to visualize clusters of cases and to detect the VOMs that are able to differentiate cancer patients from healthy individuals. Very good discrimination within breast cancer and control groups was achieved. Nevertheless, a deep study using a larger number of patients must be carried out to confirm the results.

Auto-eficácia de alunos de administração: um estudo com concluintes do curso de graduação em Administração no Estado do Pará

The current study presents the characteristics of self-efficacy of students of Administration course, who work and do not work. The study was conducted through a field research, descriptive, addressed quantitatively using statistical procedures. Was studied a population composed of 394 students distributed in three Higher Education Institutions, in the metropolitan region of Belém, in the State of Pará. The sampling was not probabilistic by accessibility, with a sample of 254 subjects. The instrument for data collection was a questionnaire composed of a set of questions divided into three sections: the first related to sociodemographic data, the second section was built to identify the work situation of the respondent and the third section was built with issues related to General Perceived Self-Efficacy Scale proposed by Schwarzer and Jerusalem (1999). Sociodemographic data were processed using methods of descriptive statistics. This procedure allowed characterizing the subjects of the sample. To identify the work situation, the analysis of frequency and percentage was used, which allowed to classify in percentage, the respondents who worked and those that did not work, and the data related to the scale of self-efficacy were processed quantitatively by the method of multivariate statistics using the software of program Statistical Package for Social Sciences for Windows - SPSS, version 17 from the process of Exploratory Factor Analysis. This procedure allowed characterizing the students who worked and the students who did not worked. The results were discussed based on Social Cognitive Theory from the construct of self-efficacy of Albert Bandura (1977). The study results showed a young sample, composed the majority of single women with work experience, and indicated that the characteristics of self-efficacy of students who work and students who do not work are different. The self-efficacy beliefs of students who do not work are based on psychological expectations, whereas the students who work demonstrated that their efficacy beliefs are sustained by previous experiences. A student who does not work proved to be reliant in their abilities to achieve a successful performance in their activities, believing it to be easy to achieve your goals and to face difficult situations at work, simply by invest a necessary effort and trust in their abilities. One who has experience working proved to be reliant in their abilities to conduct courses of action, although know that it is not easy to achieve your goals, and in unexpected situations showed its ability to solve difficult problems

Organização das comunidades infestantes de plantas daninhas na cultura da cana-de-açúcar em agrupamentos-padrão

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a possibilidade de agrupar talhões de cana-de-açúcar colhida mecanicamente e sem queima prévia da palha na região de Ribeirão Preto-SP, de acordo com o potencial de infestação de plantas daninhas, por meio de análise de agrupamento por método hierárquico e outras técnicas de análise multivariada, utilizando como variável o índice de infestação relativa atribuído por avaliações visuais, em duas etapas. A primeira contemplou 20 talhões de cana-planta com ciclo de 18 meses; essas áreas foram utilizadas para comparação de dois métodos de estimativa da composição específica da flora daninha: análise fitossociológica e por meio da porcentagem visual de cobertura geral (CG) e específica (CE). A segunda etapa consistiu no levantamento da composição específica da comunidade de plantas daninhas em 189 talhões, em áreas de cana-soca colhidas durante a safra de 2008, incluindo nesses talhões apenas CG e CE. Com as informações sobre os levantamentos da comunidade infestante foi construído um banco de dados, posteriormente submetido a análises exploratórias por técnicas de estatística multivariada. Para as principais espécies dentro dos talhões, que foram DIGNU, ARACH, IPOHF, MRRCI e IPOQU, seguidas de CYPRO, ELEIN e EPHHS, foram verificados 75% de coincidências de resultados entre os dois métodos de avaliação. Também notou-se que as avaliações visuais de porcentagem de cobertura das espécies podem substituir, para fins de praticidade, agilidade e aplicabilidade, as avaliações fitossociológicas, uma vez que proporcionaram boa capacidade de detecção das principais plantas daninhas dentro de cada talhão. As técnicas de estatística multivariada demonstraram que os talhões podem ser agrupados de acordo com semelhanças na intensidade da infestação e na composição específica.

Benefícios e dificuldades na adoção de um sistema de gestão da qualidade no Rio Grande do Norte

Taking competitive advantage or satisfy the client are the reasons why companies have been implementing a Quality Management System (QMS). It brings benefits such as the improvement in the processes, products and services; an enhancement in the image of the company (marketing) and satisfaction of the clients. As a whole, this paper aims to evaluate the results obtained from the implementation of the QMS in the certified companies in the ISO 9001 standard, contained in the database of INMETRO, of the Rio Grande do Norte State (RN). In order to achieve the goals, a bibliographical research about the theme quality management system was made and, subsequently a survey was made with the managers of the certified companies in RN, using the online questionnaire. Out of 27 companies that have the certificate in Rio Grande do Norte, 21 responded the data collection instrument. The data analysis was made through techniques of descriptive and multivariate statistics: cluster analysis. The research instrument used contained 20 questions that address the main theme of this dissertation. Using the cluster analysis, four groupings that possessed similarities concerning the survey answers were found. This analysis allowed us to conclude that the QMS boosts significant improvements in the organizations, such as: quality in the reputation of the company and sales increase. On the other hand, it allowed us to identify as main difficulties: the dissemination of the quality culture, lack of commitment of the whole organization and the resistance of the workers

Genetic parameters of total milk yield and factors describing the shape of lactation curve in dairy buffaloes

The objective of this study was to apply factor analysis to describe lactation curves in dairy buffaloes in order to estimate the phenotypic and genetic association between common latent factors and cumulative milk yield. A total of 31 257 monthly test-day milk yield records from buffaloes belonging to herds located in the state of São Paulo were used to estimate two common latent factors, which were then analysed in a multi-trait animal model for estimating genetic parameters. Estimates of (co)variance components for the two common latent factors and cumulated 270-d milk yield were obtained by Bayesian inference using a multiple trait animal model. Contemporary group, number of milkings per day (two levels) and age of buffalo cow at calving (linear and quadratic) as covariate were included in the model as fixed effects. The additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects were included as random effects. The first common latent factor (F1) was associated with persistency of lactation and the second common latent factor (F2) with the level of production in early lactation. Heritability estimates for Fl and F2 were 0.12 and 0.07, respectively. Genetic correlation estimates between El and F2 with cumulative milk yield were positive and moderate (0.63 and 0.52). Multivariate statistics employing factor analysis allowed the extraction of two variables (latent factors) that described the shape of the lactation curve. It is expected that the response to selection to increase lactation persistency is higher than the response obtained from selecting animals to increase lactation peak. Selection for higher total milk yield would result in a favourable correlated response to increase the level of production in early lactation and the lactation persistency.