924 resultados para Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)


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Safety at roadway intersections is of significant interest to transportation professionals due to the large number of intersections in transportation networks, the complexity of traffic movements at these locations that leads to large numbers of conflicts, and the wide variety of geometric and operational features that define them. A variety of collision types including head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, and angle crashes occur at intersections. While intersection crash totals may not reveal a site deficiency, over exposure of a specific crash type may reveal otherwise undetected deficiencies. Thus, there is a need to be able to model the expected frequency of crashes by collision type at intersections to enable the detection of problems and the implementation of effective design strategies and countermeasures. Statistically, it is important to consider modeling collision type frequencies simultaneously to account for the possibility of common unobserved factors affecting crash frequencies across crash types. In this paper, a simultaneous equations model of crash frequencies by collision type is developed and presented using crash data for rural intersections in Georgia. The model estimation results support the notion of the presence of significant common unobserved factors across crash types, although the impact of these factors on parameter estimates is found to be rather modest.

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Objective: To understand the levels of substance abuse and dependence among impaired drivers by comparing the differences in patients in substance abuse treatment programs with and without a past-year DUI arrest based on their primary problem substance at admission (alcohol, cocaine, cannabis, or methamphetamine). Method: Records on 345,067 admissions to Texas treatment programs between 2005 and 2008 have been analyzed for differences in demographic characteristics, levels of severity, and mental health problems at admission, treatment completion, and 90-day follow-up. Methods will include t-tests,??, and multivariate logistic regression. Results: The analysis found that DUI arrestees with a primary problem with alcohol were less impaired than non-DUI alcohol patients, had fewer mental health problems, and were more likely to complete treatment. DUI arrestees with a primary problem with cannabis were more impaired than non-DUI cannabis patients and there was no difference in treatment completion. DUI arrestees with a primary problem with cocaine were less impaired and more likely to complete treatment than other cocaine patients, and there was little difference in levels of mental health problems. DUI arrestees with a primary problem with methamphetamine were more similar to methamphetamine non-arrestees, with no difference in mental health problems and treatment completion. Conclusions: This study provides evidence of the extent of abuse and dependence among DUI arrestees and their need for treatment for their alcohol and drug problems in order to decrease recidivism. Treatment patients with past-year DUI arrests had good treatment outcomes but closer supervision during 90 day follow-up after treatment can lead to even better long-term outcomes, including reduced recidivism. Information will be provided on the latest treatment methodologies, including medication assisted therapies and screening and brief interventions, and ways impaired driving programs and substance dependence programs can be integrated to benefit the driver and society.

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Older adults, especially those acutely ill, are vulnerable to developing malnutrition due to a range of risk factors. The high prevalence and extensive consequences of malnutrition in hospitalised older adults have been reported extensively. However, there are few well-designed longitudinal studies that report the independent relationship between malnutrition and clinical outcomes after adjustment for a wide range of covariates. Acutely ill older adults are exceptionally prone to nutritional decline during hospitalisation, but few reports have studied this change and impact on clinical outcomes. In the rapidly ageing Singapore population, all this evidence is lacking, and the characteristics associated with the risk of malnutrition are also not well-documented. Despite the evidence on malnutrition prevalence, it is often under-recognised and under-treated. It is therefore crucial that validated nutrition screening and assessment tools are used for early identification of malnutrition. Although many nutrition screening and assessment tools are available, there is no universally accepted method for defining malnutrition risk and nutritional status. Most existing tools have been validated amongst Caucasians using various approaches, but they are rarely reported in the Asian elderly and none has been validated in Singapore. Due to the multiethnicity, cultural, and language differences in Singapore older adults, the results from non-Asian validation studies may not be applicable. Therefore it is important to identify validated population and setting specific nutrition screening and assessment methods to accurately detect and diagnose malnutrition in Singapore. The aims of this study are therefore to: i) characterise hospitalised elderly in a Singapore acute hospital; ii) describe the extent and impact of admission malnutrition; iii) identify and evaluate suitable methods for nutritional screening and assessment; and iv) examine changes in nutritional status during admission and their impact on clinical outcomes. A total of 281 participants, with a mean (+SD) age of 81.3 (+7.6) years, were recruited from three geriatric wards in Tan Tock Seng Hospital over a period of eight months. They were predominantly Chinese (83%) and community-dwellers (97%). They were screened within 72 hours of admission by a single dietetic technician using four nutrition screening tools [Tan Tock Seng Hospital Nutrition Screening Tool (TTSH NST), Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002), Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF), and Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire (SNAQ©)] that were administered in no particular order. The total scores were not computed during the screening process so that the dietetic technician was blinded to the results of all the tools. Nutritional status was assessed by a single dietitian, who was blinded to the screening results, using four malnutrition assessment methods [Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), body mass index (BMI), and corrected arm muscle area (CAMA)]. The SGA rating was completed prior to computation of the total MNA score to minimise bias. Participants were reassessed for weight, arm anthropometry (mid-arm circumference, triceps skinfold thickness), and SGA rating at discharge from the ward. The nutritional assessment tools and indices were validated against clinical outcomes (length of stay (LOS) >11days, discharge to higher level care, 3-month readmission, 6-month mortality, and 6-month Modified Barthel Index) using multivariate logistic regression. The covariates included age, gender, race, dementia (defined using DSM IV criteria), depression (defined using a single question “Do you often feel sad or depressed?”), severity of illness (defined using a modified version of the Severity of Illness Index), comorbidities (defined using Charlson Comorbidity Index, number of prescribed drugs and admission functional status (measured using Modified Barthel Index; MBI). The nutrition screening tools were validated against the SGA, which was found to be the most appropriate nutritional assessment tool from this study (refer section 5.6) Prevalence of malnutrition on admission was 35% (defined by SGA), and it was significantly associated with characteristics such as swallowing impairment (malnourished vs well-nourished: 20% vs 5%), poor appetite (77% vs 24%), dementia (44% vs 28%), depression (34% vs 22%), and poor functional status (MBI 48.3+29.8 vs 65.1+25.4). The SGA had the highest completion rate (100%) and was predictive of the highest number of clinical outcomes: LOS >11days (OR 2.11, 95% CI [1.17- 3.83]), 3-month readmission (OR 1.90, 95% CI [1.05-3.42]) and 6-month mortality (OR 3.04, 95% CI [1.28-7.18]), independent of a comprehensive range of covariates including functional status, disease severity and cognitive function. SGA is therefore the most appropriate nutritional assessment tool for defining malnutrition. The TTSH NST was identified as the most suitable nutritional screening tool with the best diagnostic performance against the SGA (AUC 0.865, sensitivity 84%, specificity 79%). Overall, 44% of participants experienced weight loss during hospitalisation, and 27% had weight loss >1% per week over median LOS 9 days (range 2-50). Wellnourished (45%) and malnourished (43%) participants were equally prone to experiencing decline in nutritional status (defined by weight loss >1% per week). Those with reduced nutritional status were more likely to be discharged to higher level care (adjusted OR 2.46, 95% CI [1.27-4.70]). This study is the first to characterise malnourished hospitalised older adults in Singapore. It is also one of the very few studies to (a) evaluate the association of admission malnutrition with clinical outcomes in a multivariate model; (b) determine the change in their nutritional status during admission; and (c) evaluate the validity of nutritional screening and assessment tools amongst hospitalised older adults in an Asian population. Results clearly highlight that admission malnutrition and deterioration in nutritional status are prevalent and are associated with adverse clinical outcomes in hospitalised older adults. With older adults being vulnerable to risks and consequences of malnutrition, it is important that they are systematically screened so timely and appropriate intervention can be provided. The findings highlighted in this thesis provide an evidence base for, and confirm the validity of the current nutrition screening and assessment tools used among hospitalised older adults in Singapore. As the older adults may have developed malnutrition prior to hospital admission, or experienced clinically significant weight loss of >1% per week of hospitalisation, screening of the elderly should be initiated in the community and continuous nutritional monitoring should extend beyond hospitalisation.

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Objective: To evaluate the impact of a government triple zero community awareness campaign on the characteristics of patients attending an ED. Methods: A study using Emergency Department Information System data was conducted in an adult metropolitan tertiary-referral teaching hospital in Brisbane. The three outcomes measured in the 3 month post-campaign period were arrival mode, Australasian Triage Scale and departure status. These measures reflect ambulance usage, clinical urgency and illness severity, respectively. They were compared with those in the 3 month pre-campaign period. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to investigate the impacts of the campaign on each of the three outcome measures after controlling for age, sex, day and time of arrival, and daily minimum temperature. Results: There were 17 920 visits in the pre- and 17 793 visits in the post-campaign period. After the campaign, fewer patients arrived at the ED by road ambulance (odds ratio [OR] 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.80–1.00), although the impact of the campaign on the arrival mode was only close to statistical significance (Wald χ2-test, P= 0.055); and patients were significantly less likely to have higher clinical urgency (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79–0.94), while more likely to be admitted (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.38–2.05) or complete treatment in the ED (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.23–1.73) instead of leaving without waiting to be seen. Conclusions: The campaign had no significant impact on the arrival mode of the patients. After the campaign, the illness acuity of the patients decreased, whereas the illness severity of the patients increased.

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OBJECTIVE: To identify the factors associated with infertility, seeking advice and treatment with fertility hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation (IVF) among a general population of women. METHODS: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health aged 28-33 years in 2006 had completed up to four mailed surveys over 10 years (n=9,145). Parsimonious multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the socio-demographic, biological (including reproductive histories), and behavioural factors associated with infertility, advice and hormonal/IVF treatment. RESULTS: For women who had tried to conceive or had been pregnant (n=5,936), 17% reported infertility. Among women with infertility (n=1031), 72% (n=728) sought advice but only 50% (n=356) used hormonal/IVF treatment. Women had higher odds of infertility when: they had never been pregnant (OR=7.2, 95% CI 5.6-9.1) or had a history of miscarriage (OR range=1.5-4.0) than those who had given birth (and never had a miscarriage or termination). CONCLUSION: Only one-third of women with infertility used hormonal and/or IVF treatment. Women with PCOS or endometriosis were the most proactive in having sought advice and used hormonal/IVF treatment. IMPLICATIONS: Raised awareness of age-related declining fertility is important for partnered women aged approximately 30 years to encourage pregnancy during their prime reproductive years and reduce the risk of infertility.

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Aims: To identify risk factors for major Adverse Events (AEs) and to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of such AEs in individual patients who have surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: We used data from 753 patients who were randomized to either total laparoscopic hysterectomy or total abdominal hysterectomy in the LACE trial. Serious adverse events that prolonged hospital stay or postoperative adverse events (using common terminology criteria 3+, CTCAE V3) were considered major AEs. We analyzed pre-surgical characteristics that were associated with the risk of developing major AEs by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The six most significant or clinically important variables were included in the nomogram to predict the risk of major AEs within 6 weeks of surgery and the nomogram was internally validated. Results: Overall, 132 (17.5%) patients had at least one major AE. An open surgical approach (laparotomy), higher Charlson’s medical co-morbidities score, moderately differentiated tumours on curettings, higher baseline ECOG score, higher body mass index and low haemoglobin levels were associated with AE and were used in the nomogram. The bootstrap corrected concordance index of the nomogram was 0.63 and it showed good calibration. Conclusions: Six pre-surgical factors independently predicted the risk of major AEs. This research might form the basis to develop risk reduction strategies to minimize the risk of AEs among patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer.

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Objectives: To evaluate the clinical value of pre-operative serum CA125 in predicting the presence of extra-uterine disease in patients with apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: Between October 6, 2005 and June 17, 2010, 760 patients were enrolled in an international, multicentre, prospective randomized trial (LACE) comparing laparotomy with laparoscopy in the management of endometrial cancer apparently confined to the uterus. This study is based on data from 657 patients with endometrial adenocarcinoma who had a pre-operative serum CA125 value, and was undertaken to correlate pre-operative serum CA125 with final stage. Results: Using a pre-operative CA-125 cutpoint of 30U/ml was associated with the smallest misclassification error (14.5%) using a multiple cross-validation method. Median pre-operative serum CA-125 was 14U/ml, and using a cutpoint of 30U/ml, 14.9% of patients had elevated CA-125 levels. Of 98 patients with elevated CA-125 level, 36 (36.7%) had evidence of extra-uterine disease. Of the 116 patients (17.7%) with evidence of extra-uterine disease, 31.0% had elevated CA-125 level. In univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, only pre-operative CA-125 level was found to be associated with extra-uterine spread of disease. Utilising a cutpoint of 30U/ml achieved a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 31.0%, 88.5%, 36.7% and 85.7% respectively. Overall, 326/657 (49.6%) of patients had full surgical staging involving lymph node dissection. When analysis was limited to patients that had undergone full surgical staging, the outcomes remained essentially unchanged. Conclusions: Elevated CA-125 above 30U/ml in patients with apparent early stage disease is associated with a sensitivity of 31.0% and specificity of 88.5% in detecting extra-uterine disease. Pre-operative identification of this risk factor may assist to triage patients to tertiary centres and comprehensive surgical staging.

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Background Cervical cancer and infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are both important public health problems in South Africa (SA). The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions (SILs), high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV), HPV viral load and HPV genotypes in HIV positive women initiating anti-retroviral (ARV) therapy. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted at an anti-retroviral (ARV) treatment clinic in Cape Town, SA in 2007. Cervical specimens were taken for cytological analysis and HPV testing. The Digene Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) test was used to detect HR-HPV. Relative light units (RLU) were used as a measure of HPV viral load. HPV types were determined using the Roche Linear Array HPV Genotyping test. Crude associations with abnormal cytology were tested and multiple logistic regression was used to determine independent risk factors for abnormal cytology. Results The median age of the 109 participants was 31 years, the median CD4 count was 125/mm3, 66.3% had an abnormal Pap smear, the HR-HPV prevalence was 78.9% (Digene), the median HPV viral load was 181.1 RLU (HC2 positive samples only) and 78.4% had multiple genotypes. Among women with abnormal smears the most prevalent HR-HPV types were HPV types 16, 58 and 51, all with a prevalence of 28.5%. On univariate analysis HR-HPV, multiple HPV types and HPV viral load were significantly associated with the presence of low and high-grade SILs (LSIL/HSIL). The multivariate logistic regression showed that HPV viral load was associated with an increased odds of LSIL/HSIL, odds ratio of 10.7 (95% CI 2.0 – 57.7) for those that were HC2 positive and had a viral load of ≤ 181.1 RLU (the median HPV viral load), and 33.8 (95% CI 6.4 – 178.9) for those that were HC2 positive with a HPV viral load > 181.1 RLU. Conclusion Women initiating ARVs have a high prevalence of abnormal Pap smears and HR-HPV. Our results underscore the need for locally relevant, rigorous screening protocols for the increasing numbers of women accessing ARV therapy so that the benefits of ARVs are not partially offset by an excess risk in cervical cancer.

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In the elderly, the risks for protein-energy malnutrition from older age, dementia, depression and living alone have been well-documented. Other risk factors including anorexia, gastrointestinal dysfunction, loss of olfactory and taste senses and early satiety have also been suggested to contribute to poor nutritional status. In Parkinson’s disease (PD), it has been suggested that the disease symptoms may predispose people with PD to malnutrition. However, the risks for malnutrition in this population are not well-understood. The current study’s aim was to determine malnutrition risk factors in community-dwelling adults with PD. Nutritional status was assessed using the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Data about age, time since diagnosis, medications and living situation were collected. Levodopa equivalent doses (LDED) and LDED per kg body weight (mg/kg) were calculated. Depression and anxiety were measured using the Beck’s Depression Inventory (BDI) and Spielberger Trait Anxiety questionnaire, respectively. Cognitive function was assessed using the Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Examination (ACE-R). Non-motor symptoms were assessed using the Scales for Outcomes in Parkinson's disease-Autonomic (SCOPA-AUT) and Modified Constipation Assessment Scale (MCAS). A total of 125 community-dwelling people with PD were included, average age of 70.2±9.3(35-92) years and average time since diagnosis of 7.3±5.9(0–31) years. Average body mass index (BMI) was 26.0±5.5kg/m2. Of these, 15% (n=19) were malnourished (SGA-B). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that older age (OR=1.16, CI=1.02-1.31), more depressive symptoms (OR=1.26, CI=1.07-1.48), lower levels of anxiety (OR=.90, CI=.82-.99), and higher LDED per kg body weight (OR=1.57, CI=1.14-2.15) significantly increased malnutrition risk. Cognitive function, living situation, number of prescription medications, LDED, years since diagnosis and the severity of non-motor symptoms did not significantly influence malnutrition risk. Malnutrition results in poorer health outcomes. Proactively addressing the risk factors can help prevent declines in nutritional status. In the current study, older people with PD with depression and greater amounts of levodopa per body weight were at increased malnutrition risk.

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Proxy reports from parents and self-reported data from pupils have often been used interchangeably to identify factors influencing school travel behaviour. However, few studies have examined the validity of proxy reports as an alternative to self-reported data. In addition, despite research that has been conducted in a different context, little is known to date about the impact of different factors on school travel behaviour in a sectarian divided society. This research examines these issues using 1624 questionnaires collected from four independent samples (e.g. primary pupils, parent of primary pupils, secondary pupils, and parent of secondary pupils) across Northern Ireland. An independent sample t test was conducted to identify the differences in data reporting between pupils and parents for different age groups using the reported number of trips for different modes as dependent variables. Multivariate multiple regression analyses were conducted to then identify the impacts of different factors (e.g. gender, rural–urban context, multiple deprivations, and school management type, net residential density, land use diversity, intersection density) on mode choice behaviour in this context. Results show that proxy report is a valid alternative to self-reported data, but only for primary pupils. Land use diversity and rural–urban context were found to be the most important factors in influencing mode choice behaviour.

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OBJECTIVE There has been a dramatic increase in vitamin D testing in Australia in recent years, prompting calls for targeted testing. We sought to develop a model to identify people most at risk of vitamin D deficiency. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS This is a cross-sectional study of 644 60- to 84-year-old participants, 95% of whom were Caucasian, who took part in a pilot randomized controlled trial of vitamin D supplementation. MEASUREMENTS Baseline 25(OH)D was measured using the Diasorin Liaison platform. Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency were defined using 50 and 25 nmol/l as cut-points, respectively. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors. We used multivariate logistic regression to predict low vitamin D and calculated the net benefit of using the model compared with 'test-all' and 'test-none' strategies. RESULTS The mean serum 25(OH)D was 42 (SD 14) nmol/1. Seventy-five per cent of participants were vitamin D insufficient and 10% deficient. Serum 25(OH)D was positively correlated with time outdoors, physical activity, vitamin D intake and ambient UVR, and inversely correlated with age, BMI and poor self-reported health status. These predictors explained approximately 21% of the variance in serum 25(OH)D. The area under the ROC curve predicting vitamin D deficiency was 0·82. Net benefit for the prediction model was higher than that for the 'test-all' strategy at all probability thresholds and higher than the 'test-none' strategy for probabilities up to 60%. CONCLUSION Our model could predict vitamin D deficiency with reasonable accuracy, but it needs to be validated in other populations before being implemented.

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Background: normal ageing processes impact on oropharyngeal swallowing function placing older adults at risk of developing oropharyngeal dysphagia (OD). Anecdotal clinical experience has observed that older patients recovering from hip fracture surgery commonly develop OD post-operatively. Objective: to document the presence of OD following hip fracture surgery, and the factors associated with OD. Methods: one hundred and eighty-one patients with a mean age of 83 years (range: 65–103) admitted to a specialised orthogeriatric unit were assessed for OD post-surgery for hip fracture. Pre-admission, intra-operative and post-operative factors were examined to determine their relationship with the presence of OD. Results: OD was found to be present post-operatively in 34% (n = 61) of the current population. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed the presence of pre-existing neurological and respiratory medical co-morbidities, presence of post-operative delirium, age and living in a residential aged care facility prior to hospital admission to be associated with the post-operative OD. Conclusion: these results highlight that OD is present in a large number of the older hip fracture population. Early identification of OD has important implications for the provision of timely dysphagia management that may prevent secondary complications and potentially reduce the hospital length of stay.

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In Australia and internationally, there is scant information about Indigenous repeat drink drivers. The aim was to identify the risk factors associated with repeat offending. De-identified data on drink driving convictions by offenders identifying as Indigenous in Queensland between 2006 and 2010 were examined. A range of univariate analyses were used to compare first time and repeat offenders on gender, age, court location and region (based on the accessibility/remoteness index of Australia), blood alcohol concentration and sentencing severity. Multivariate logistic regression adjusted for confounding variables. Convictions for repeat offenders were more likely from locations other than ‘major cities’ with the association strongest for courts in the ‘very remote’ region (OR=2.75, 2.06-3.76, p<.001). Indigenous offenders 40 years or older were found to be at reduced risk in comparison to offenders aged 15-24 years (OR=0.68, 0.54-0.86, p=0.01). After controlling for confounding factors, gender, sentencing severity and blood alcohol concentration levels were not significantly associated with recidivism. The association of recidivism and remoteness is consistent with higher rates of alcohol-related transport accidents involving Indigenous Australians in isolated areas. This study provides a platform for future research and allows for early attempts to address the need for intervention to reduce Indigenous drink driving recidivism.

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Development of design guides to estimate the difference in speech interference level due to road traffic noise between a reference position and balcony position or façade position is explored. A previously established and validated theoretical model incorporating direct, specular and diffuse reflection paths is used to create a database of results across a large number of scenarios. Nine balcony types with variable acoustic treatments are assessed to provide acoustic design guidance on optimised selection of balcony acoustic treatments based on location and street type. In total, the results database contains 9720 scenarios on which multivariate linear regression is conducted in order to derive an appropriate design guide equation. The best fit regression derived is a multivariable linear equation including modified exponential equations on each of nine deciding variables, (1) diffraction path difference, (2) ratio of total specular energy to direct energy, (3) distance loss between reference position and receiver position, (4) distance from source to balcony façade, (5) height of balcony floor above street, (6) balcony depth, (7) height of opposite buildings, (8) diffusion coefficient of buildings, and; (9) balcony average absorption. Overall, the regression correlation coefficient, R2, is 0.89 with 95% confidence standard error of ±3.4 dB.

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Background. To establish whether sensorimotor function and balance are associated with on-road driving performance in older adults. Methods. The performance of 270 community-living adults aged 70–88 years recruited via the electoral roll was measured on a battery of peripheral sensation, strength, flexibility, reaction time, and balance tests and on a standardized measure of on-road driving performance. Results. Forty-seven participants (17.4%) were classified as unsafe based on their driving assessment. Unsafe driving was associated with reduced peripheral sensation, lower limb weakness, reduced neck range of motion, slow reaction time, and poor balance in univariate analyses. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified poor vibration sensitivity, reduced quadriceps strength, and increased sway on a foam surface with eyes closed as significant and independent risk factors for unsafe driving. These variables classified participants into safe and unsafe drivers with a sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 70%. Conclusions. A number of sensorimotor and balance measures were associated with driver safety and the multivariate model comprising measures of sensation, strength, and balance was highly predictive of unsafe driving in this sample. These findings highlight important determinants of driver safety and may assist in developing efficacious driver safety strategies for older drivers.