Economic Evaluations of State Policies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

The evolution of imperfect mimicry in hoverflies

Ideas about the evolution of imperfect mimicry are reviewed. Their relevance to the colours patterns of hoverflies (Diptera, Syrphidae) are discussed in detail. Most if not all of the hoverflies labelled as mimetic actually are mimics. The apparently poor nature of their resemblance does not prevent them from obtaining at least some protection from suitably experienced birds. Mimicry is a dominant theme of this very large family of Diptera, with at least a quarter of all species in Europe being mimetic. Hoverfly mimics fall into three major groups according to their models, involving bumblebees, honeybees and social wasps. There are striking differences in the general levels of mimetic fidelity and relative abundances of the three groups, with accurate mimicry, low abundance and polymorphism characterizing the bumblebee mimics: more than half of all the species of bumblebee mimics are polymorphic. Mimics of social wasps tend to be poor mimics, have high relative abundance, and polymorphism is completely absent. Bumblebee models fall into a small number of Muellerian mimicry rings which are very different between the Palaearctic and Nearctic regions. Social wasps and associated models form one large Muellerian complex. Together with honeybees, these complexes probably form real clusters of forms as perceived by many birds. All three groups of syrphid mimics contain both good and poor mimics; some mimics are remarkably accurate, and have close morphological and behavioural resemblance. At least some apparently 'poor' mimetic resemblances may be much closer in birds' perception than we imagine, and more work needs to be done on this. Bumblebees are the least noxious and wasps the most noxious of the three main model groups. The basis of noxiousness is different, with bumblebees being classified as non-food, whereas honeybees and wasps are nasty-tasting and (rarely) stinging. The distribution of mimicry is exactly what would be expected from this ordering, with polymorphic and accurate forms being a key feature of mimics of the least noxious models, while highly noxious models have poor-quality mimicry. Even if the high abundance of many syrphid mimics relative to their models is a recent artefact of man-made environmental change, this does not preclude these species from being mimics. It seems unlikely that bird predation actually controls the populations of adult syrphids. Being rare relative to a model may have promoted or accelerated the evolution of perfect mimicry: theoretically this might account for the pattern of rare good mimics and abundant poor ones, but the idea is intrinsically unlikely. Many mimics seem to have hour-to-hour abundances related to those of their models, presumably as a result of behavioural convergence. We need to know much more about the psychology of birds as predators. There are at least four processes that need elucidating: (a) learning about the noxiousness of models; (b) the erasing of that learning through contact with mimics (extinction, or learned forgetting); (c) forgetting; (d) deliberate risk-taking and the physiological states that promote it. Johnston's (2002) model of the stabilization of imperfect mimicry by kin selection is unlikely to account for the colour patterns of hoverflies. Sherratt's (2002) model of the influence of multiple models potentially accounts for all the patterns of hoverfly mimicry, and is the most promising avenue for testing.

Investigation of the role of long non-coding RNAs in oncogene induced cellular senescence

Cellular senescence is a stable arrest of cell proliferation induced by several factors such as activated oncogenes, oxidative stress and shortening of telomeres. Senescence acts as a tumour suppression mechanism to halt the progression of cancer. However, senescence may also impact negatively upon tissue regeneration, thus contributing to the effects of ageing. The eukaryotic genome is controlled by various modes of transcriptional and translational regulation. Focus has therefore centred on the role of long non- coding RNAs (lncRNAs) in regulating the genome. Accordingly, understanding how lncRNAs function to regulate the senescent genome is integral to improving our knowledge and understanding of tumour suppression and ageing. Within this study, I set out to investigate the expression of lncRNAs’ expression within models of senescence. Through a custom expression array, I have shown that expression of multiple different lncRNAs is up-regulated and down regulated in IMR90 replicative senescent fibroblasts and oncogene-induced senescent melanocytes. LncRNA expression was determined to be specific to stable senescence-associated cell arrest and predominantly within the nucleus of senescent cells. In order to examine the function of lncRNA expression in senescence, I selected lncRNA transcript ENST0000430998 (lncRNA_98) to focus my investigations upon. LncRNA_98 was robustly upregulated within multiple models of senescence and efficiently depleted using anti-sense oligonucleotide technology. Characterisation and unbiased RNA-sequencing of lncRNA_98 deficient senescent cells highlighted a list of genes that are regulated by lncRNA_98 expression in senescent cells and may regulate aspects of the senescence program. Specifically, the formation of SAHF was impeded upon depletion of lncRNA_98 expression and levels of total pRB protein expression severely decreased. Validation and recapitulation of consequences of pRB depletion was confirmed through lncRNA_98 knock-out cells generated using CRISPR technology. Surprisingly, inhibition of ATM kinase functions permitted the restoration of pRB protein levels within lncRNA_98 deficient cells. I propose that lncRNA_98 antagonizes the ability of ATM kinase to downregulate pRB expression at a post-transcriptional level, thereby potentiating senescence. Furthermore, lncRNA expression was detected within fibroblasts of old individuals and visualised within senescent melanocytes in human benign nevi, a barrier to melanoma progression. Conversely, mining of 337 TCGA primary melanoma data sets highlighted that the lncRNA_98 gene and its expression was lost from a significant proportion of melanoma samples, consistent with lncRNA_98 having a tumour suppressor functions. The data presented in this study illustrates that lncRNA_98 expression has a regulatory role over pRB expression in senescence and may regulate aspects of tumourigenesis and ageing.

AMPLITUDE-VERSUS-ANGLE ANALYSIS AND WIDE-ANGLE-INVERSION OF CROSSWELL SEISMIC DATA IN A CARBONATE RESERVOIR

Crosswell data set contains a range of angles limited only by the geometry of the source and receiver configuration, the separation of the boreholes and the depth to the target. However, the wide angles reflections present in crosswell imaging result in amplitude-versus-angle (AVA) features not usually observed in surface data. These features include reflections from angles that are near critical and beyond critical for many of the interfaces; some of these reflections are visible only for a small range of angles, presumably near their critical angle. High-resolution crosswell seismic surveys were conducted over a Silurian (Niagaran) reef at two fields in northern Michigan, Springdale and Coldspring. The Springdale wells extended to much greater depths than the reef, and imaging was conducted from above and from beneath the reef. Combining the results from images obtained from above with those from beneath provides additional information, by exhibiting ranges of angles that are different for the two images, especially for reflectors at shallow depths, and second, by providing additional constraints on the solutions for Zoeppritz equations. Inversion of seismic data for impedance has become a standard part of the workflow for quantitative reservoir characterization. Inversion of crosswell data using either deterministic or geostatistical methods can lead to poor results with phase change beyond the critical angle, however, the simultaneous pre-stack inversion of partial angle stacks may be best conducted with restrictions to angles less than critical. Deterministic inversion is designed to yield only a single model of elastic properties (best-fit), while the geostatistical inversion produces multiple models (realizations) of elastic properties, lithology and reservoir properties. Geostatistical inversion produces results with far more detail than deterministic inversion. The magnitude of difference in details between both types of inversion becomes increasingly pronounced for thinner reservoirs, particularly those beyond the vertical resolution of the seismic. For any interface imaged from above and from beneath, the results AVA characters must result from identical contrasts in elastic properties in the two sets of images, albeit in reverse order. An inversion approach to handle both datasets simultaneously, at pre-critical angles, is demonstrated in this work. The main exploration problem for carbonate reefs is determining the porosity distribution. Images of elastic properties, obtained from deterministic and geostatistical simultaneous inversion of a high-resolution crosswell seismic survey were used to obtain the internal structure and reservoir properties (porosity) of Niagaran Michigan reef. The images obtained are the best of any Niagaran pinnacle reef to date.

Un aporte a la comprensión de las estrategias emergentes en las organizaciones a través del concepto de improvisación y la metáfora musical

Este trabajo se inscribe en uno de los grandes campos de los estudios organizacionales: la estrategia. La perspectiva clásica en este campo promovió la idea de que proyectarse hacia el futuro implica diseñar un plan (una serie de acciones deliberadas). Avances posteriores mostraron que la estrategia podía ser comprendida de otras formas. Sin embargo, la evolución del campo privilegió en alguna medida la mirada clásica estableciendo, por ejemplo, múltiples modelos para ‘formular’ una estrategia, pero dejando en segundo lugar la manera en la que esta puede ‘emerger’. El propósito de esta investigación es, entonces, aportar al actual nivel de comprensión respecto a las estrategias emergentes en las organizaciones. Para hacerlo, se consideró un concepto opuesto —aunque complementario— al de ‘planeación’ y, de hecho, muy cercano en su naturaleza a ese tipo de estrategias: la improvisación. Dado que este se ha nutrido de valiosos aportes del mundo de la música, se acudió al saber propio de este dominio, recurriendo al uso de ‘la metáfora’ como recurso teórico para entenderlo y alcanzar el objetivo propuesto. Los resultados muestran que 1) las estrategias deliberadas y las emergentes coexisten y se complementan, 2) la improvisación está siempre presente en el contexto organizacional, 3) existe una mayor intensidad de la improvisación en el ‘como’ de la estrategia que en el ‘qué’ y, en oposición a la idea convencional al respecto, 4) se requiere cierta preparación para poder improvisar de manera adecuada.

Ecosystem process models at multiple scales for mapping tropical forest productivity

Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models

We propose a method to estimate time invariant cyclical DSGE models using the informationprovided by a variety of filters. We treat data filtered with alternative procedures as contaminated proxies of the relevant model-based quantities and estimate structural and non-structuralparameters jointly using a signal extraction approach. We employ simulated data to illustratethe properties of the procedure and compare our conclusions with those obtained when just onefilter is used. We revisit the role of money in the transmission of monetary business cycles.

Dynamic compact thermal models with multiple power sources: application to an ultrathin chip stacking technology

Whereas numerical modeling using finite-element methods (FEM) can provide transient temperature distribution in the component with enough accuracy, it is of the most importance the development of compact dynamic thermal models that can be used for electrothermal simulation. While in most cases single power sources are considered, here we focus on the simultaneous presence of multiple sources. The thermal model will be in the form of a thermal impedance matrix containing the thermal impedance transfer functions between two arbitrary ports. Eachindividual transfer function element ( ) is obtained from the analysis of the thermal temperature transient at node ¿ ¿ after a power step at node ¿ .¿ Different options for multiexponential transient analysis are detailed and compared. Among the options explored, small thermal models can be obtained by constrained nonlinear least squares (NLSQ) methods if the order is selected properly using validation signals. The methods are applied to the extraction of dynamic compact thermal models for a new ultrathin chip stack technology (UTCS).

Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models

In a recent paper, Bai and Perron (1998) considered theoretical issues related to the limiting distribution of estimators and test statistics in the linear model with multiple structural changes. In this companion paper, we consider practical issues for the empirical applications of the procedures. We first address the problem of estimation of the break dates and present an efficient algorithm to obtain global minimizers of the sum of squared residuals. This algorithm is based on the principle of dynamic programming and requires at most least-squares operations of order O(T 2) for any number of breaks. Our method can be applied to both pure and partial structural-change models. Secondly, we consider the problem of forming confidence intervals for the break dates under various hypotheses about the structure of the data and the errors across segments. Third, we address the issue of testing for structural changes under very general conditions on the data and the errors. Fourth, we address the issue of estimating the number of breaks. We present simulation results pertaining to the behavior of the estimators and tests in finite samples. Finally, a few empirical applications are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the procedures. All methods discussed are implemented in a GAUSS program available upon request for non-profit academic use.

Interleukin-15 in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis and its animal models

L'interleukine-15 (IL-15) contribue au développement et à l’activation des lymphocytes T CD8, des cellules immunes qui ont été impliquées dans plusieurs maladies auto-immunes telle la sclérose en plaques. Des niveaux élevés de l'IL-15 ont été trouvés chez les patients atteints de cette maladie comparativement aux témoins, mais aucune étude n'a examiné les effets de tels niveaux élevés sur les lymphocytes T CD8. Les objectifs de notre étude étaient 1- de caractériser l’expression de l'IL-15 par des lymphocytes B humains et de déterminer ses effets sur les fonctions des lymphocytes T CD8, et 2- d’évaluer l'expression in vivo de l'IL-15 dans des modèles murins de la sclérose en plaques. Nous avons établi que les cellules B humaines augmentaient leur expression de l'IL-15 suite à une stimulation via le CD40. De plus, les fonctions effectrices des lymphocytes T CD8 ont été significativement augmentées lors des co-cultures avec des cellules B alloréactives exprimant l'IL-15. Dans les modèles murins de la sclérose en plaques, nous avons détecté au sein du système nerveux central des cellules immunes exprimant l’IL-15 ainsi que des cellules T CD8 exprimant le récepteur pour cette cytokine à différents stades de la maladie. Nous avons démontré que les cellules B modulent des réponses des lymphocytes T CD8 via l’IL-15, ce qui suggère un rôle pour les cellules B dans la pathogenèse de la sclérose en plaques. Nous avons aussi mis en évidence la présence de cellules exprimant l’IL-15 dans le système nerveux central dans des modèles murins de cette maladie.

Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics