Use of Coarse-resolution models of species' distributions to guide local conservation inferences

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter ( Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence–absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures

Impacts of experimental warming and fire on phenology of subalpine open-heath species

The present study examined experimentally the phenological responses of a range of plant species to rises in temperature. We used the climate-change field protocol of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), which measures plant responses to warming of 1 to 2°C inside small open-topped chambers. The field study was established on the Bogong High Plains, Australia, in subalpine open heathlands; the most common treeless plant community on the Bogong High Plains. The study included areas burnt by fire in 2003, and therefore considers the interactive effects of warming and fire, which have rarely been studied in high mountain environments. From November 2003 to March 2006, various phenological phases were monitored inside and outside chambers during the snow-free periods. Warming resulted in earlier occurrence of key phenological events in 7 of the 14 species studied. Burning altered phenology in 9 of 10 species studied, with both earlier and later phenological changes depending on the species. There were no common phenological responses to warming or burning among species of the same family, growth form or flowering type (i.e. early or late-flowering species), when all phenological events were examined. The proportion of plants that formed flower buds was influenced by fire in half of the species studied. The findings support previous findings of ITEX and other warming experiments; that is, species respond individualistically to experimental warming. The inter-year variation in phenological response, the idiosyncratic nature of the responses to experimental warming among species, and an inherent resilience to fire, may result in community resilience to short-term climate change. In the first 3 years of experimental warming, phenological responses do not appear to be driving community-level change. Our findings emphasise the value of examining multiple species in climate-change studies.

Pitfall (An Opportunistic Cultural Survey)

A pitfall is an unapparent source of trouble or danger; a hidden hazard: Today we all face, or will soon be facing ecological pitfalls of many kinds. ‘Pitfall’ is a continually-evolving artwork built from multiple screens, a tabletop landscape mapped with projections, fibre optics, 3D spatial sound and infrared night imagery. It builds upon ideas, recordings and cross-disciplinary processes developed during my 2012-13 ANAT Synapse Art-Science residency, with the Australian Wildlife Conservancy (AWC), Australia’s largest private-sector conservation organisation.

The re-introduction project

The Re-introduction Project began with an art-science research residency in 2012, funded through the Australian 'Synapse' art-science residency program. It was developed in partnership with the Australian Wildlife Conservancy, Australia's largest private conservation agency and their South-East regional scientist Matt Hayward and conducted through a series of seven high intensity field-trips to AWC’s remote properties in VIC, NSW and SA. These trips coincided with key times at which the AWC’s mobile scientific teams were undertaking intensive scientific activities. The program coincided with specific events that senior scientist collaborator Dr Matt Hayward led in 2012 at Mallee Regions (Yookamurra, Scotia and Buckaringa), Lake Eyre Basin (Kalamurina) and Sydney (North Head). The initial outcome of the project was the work Pitfall (An Opportunistic Survey) - a new media installation created in light, media, object, text and sound presented near the AWC headquarters at Mildura in far NW Victoria. Pitfall built upon ideas and cross disciplinary processes developed during this residency/collaboration with Australian Wildlife Conservancy inspired by working with their ecological scientists during pitfall-trap survey events used to survey small mammals and invertebrates. ‘Pitfall’ was designed in response to a playful survey that I asked the AWC scientists to engage with around ideas of avoiding ecological pitfalls into the future. This continually-evolving artwork was built from multiple screens, a tabletop landscape mapped with projections, fibre optics, 3D spatial sound and infrared night imagery.

Making robust decisions for conservation with restricted money and knowledge

1. In conservation decision-making, we operate within the confines of limited funding. Furthermore, we often assume particular relationships between management impact and our investment in management. The structure of these relationships, however, is rarely known with certainty - there is model uncertainty. We investigate how these two fundamentally limiting factors in conservation management, money and knowledge, impact optimal decision-making. 2. We use information-gap decision theory to find strategies for maximizing the number of extant subpopulations of a threatened species that are most immune to failure due to model uncertainty. We thus find a robust framework for exploring optimal decision-making. 3. The performance of every strategy decreases as model uncertainty increases. 4. The strategy most robust to model uncertainty depends not only on what performance is perceived to be acceptable but also on available funding and the time horizon over which extinction is considered. 5. Synthesis and applications. We investigate the impact of model uncertainty on robust decision-making in conservation and how this is affected by available conservation funding. We show that subpopulation triage can be a natural consequence of robust decision-making. We highlight the need for managers to consider triage not as merely giving up, but as a tool for ensuring species persistence in light of the urgency of most conservation requirements, uncertainty and the poor state of conservation funding. We illustrate this theory by a specific application to allocation of funding to reduce poaching impact on the Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae in Kerinci Seblat National Park. © 2008 The Authors.

Regional avian species declines estimated from volunteer-collected long-term data using List Length Analysis

Long-term systematic population monitoring data sets are rare but are essential in identifying changes in species abundance. In contrast, community groups and natural history organizations have collected many species lists. These represent a large, untapped source of information on changes in abundance but are generally considered of little value. The major problem with using species lists to detect population changes is that the amount of effort used to obtain the list is often uncontrolled and usually unknown. It has been suggested that using the number of species on the list, the "list length," can be a measure of effort. This paper significantly extends the utility of Franklin's approach using Bayesian logistic regression. We demonstrate the value of List Length Analysis to model changes in species prevalence (i.e., the proportion of lists on which the species occurs) using bird lists collected by a local bird club over 40 years around Brisbane, southeast Queensland, Australia. We estimate the magnitude and certainty of change for 269 bird species and calculate the probabilities that there have been declines and increases of given magnitudes. List Length Analysis confirmed suspected species declines and increases. This method is an important complement to systematically designed intensive monitoring schemes and provides a means of utilizing data that may otherwise be deemed useless. The results of List Length Analysis can be used for targeting species of conservation concern for listing purposes or for more intensive monitoring. While Bayesian methods are not essential for List Length Analysis, they can offer more flexibility in interrogating the data and are able to provide a range of parameters that are easy to interpret and can facilitate conservation listing and prioritization. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Robust conservation decision-making

Decision-making for conservation is conducted within the margins of limited funding. Furthermore, to allocate these scarce resources we make assumptions about the relationship between management impact and expenditure. The structure of these relationships, however, is rarely known with certainty. We present a summary of work investigating the impact of model uncertainty on robust decision-making in conservation and how this is affected by available conservation funding. We show that achieving robustness in conservation decisions can require a triage approach, and emphasize the need for managers to consider triage not as surrendering but as rational decision making to ensure species persistence in light of the urgency of the conservation problems, uncertainty, and the poor state of conservation funding. We illustrate this theory by a specific application to allocation of funding to reduce poaching impact on the Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae in Kerinci Seblat National Park, Indonesia. To conserve our environment, conservation managers must make decisions in the face of substantial uncertainty. Further, they must deal with the fact that limitations in budgets and temporal constraints have led to a lack of knowledge on the systems we are trying to preserve and on the benefits of the actions we have available (Balmford & Cowling 2006). Given this paucity of decision-informing data there is a considerable need to assess the impact of uncertainty on the benefit of management options (Regan et al. 2005). Although models of management impact can improve decision making (e.g.Tenhumberg et al. 2004), they typically rely on assumptions around which there is substantial uncertainty. Ignoring this 'model uncertainty', can lead to inferior decision-making (Regan et al. 2005), and potentially, the loss of the species we are trying to protect. Current methods used in ecology allow model uncertainty to be incorporated into the model selection process (Burnham & Anderson 2002; Link & Barker 2006), but do not enable decision-makers to assess how this uncertainty would change a decision. This is the basis of information-gap decision theory (info-gap); finding strategies most robust to model uncertainty (Ben-Haim 2006). Info-gap has permitted conservation biology to make the leap from recognizing uncertainty to explicitly incorporating severe uncertainty into decision-making. In this paper we present a summary of McDonald-Madden et al (2008a) who use an info-gap framework to address the impact of uncertainty in the functional representations of biological systems on conservation decision-making. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of two key elements limiting conservation decision-making - funding and knowledge - and how they interact to influence the best management strategy for a threatened species. Copyright © ASCE 2011.

Subpopulation triage: How to allocate conservation effort among populations

Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Leaf and inflorescence structure and phylogenetics of Tripogon and affiliated genera (Poaceae: Chloridoideae)

This thesis provides new knowledge on an understudied group of grasses, some of which are resurrection grasses (i.e. able to withstand extreme drought). The sole Australian species (Tripogon loliiformis) is morphologically diverse and could be more than one species. This study sought to determine how many species of Tripogon occur in Australia, their relationships to other species in the genus and to two other genera of resurrection grasses (Eragrostiella and Oropetium). Results of the research indicate there is not enough evidence, from DNA sequence data, to warrant splitting up T. loliiformis into multiple species. The extensive morphological diversity seems to be influenced by environmental conditions. The three genera are so closely related that they could be grouped into a single genus. This new knowledge opens up pathways for future investigations, including studying genes responsible for desiccation tolerance and the conservation of native grasses that occur in rocky habitats.

Green and brown bridges between weeds and crops reveal novel Diaporthe species in Australia

Diaporthe (syn. Phomopsis) species are well-known saprobes, endophytes or pathogens on a range of plants. Several species have wide host ranges and multiple species may sometimes colonise the same host species. This study describes eight novel Diaporthe species isolated from live and/or dead tissue from the broad acre crops lupin, maize, mungbean, soybean and sunflower, and associated weed species in Queensland and New South Wales, as well as the environmental weed bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. rotundata) in eastern Australia. The new taxa are differentiated on the basis of morphology and DNA sequence analyses based on the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer region, and part of the translation elongation factor-1α and ß-tubulin genes. The possible agricultural significance of live weeds and crop residues ('green bridges') as well as dead weeds and crop residues ('brown bridges') in aiding survival of the newly described Diaporthe species is discussed.

Where and how to conserve: Extending the scope of spatial reserve network design

Ongoing habitat loss and fragmentation threaten much of the biodiversity that we know today. As such, conservation efforts are required if we want to protect biodiversity. Conservation budgets are typically tight, making the cost-effective selection of protected areas difficult. Therefore, reserve design methods have been developed to identify sets of sites, that together represent the species of conservation interest in a cost-effective manner. To be able to select reserve networks, data on species distributions is needed. Such data is often incomplete, but species habitat distribution models (SHDMs) can be used to link the occurrence of the species at the surveyed sites to the environmental conditions at these locations (e.g. climatic, vegetation and soil conditions). The probability of the species occurring at unvisited location is next predicted by the model, based on the environmental conditions of those sites. The spatial configuration of reserve networks is important, because habitat loss around reserves can influence the persistence of species inside the network. Since species differ in their requirements for network configuration, the spatial cohesion of networks needs to be species-specific. A way to account for species-specific requirements is to use spatial variables in SHDMs. Spatial SHDMs allow the evaluation of the effect of reserve network configuration on the probability of occurrence of the species inside the network. Even though reserves are important for conservation, they are not the only option available to conservation planners. To enhance or maintain habitat quality, restoration or maintenance measures are sometimes required. As a result, the number of conservation options per site increases. Currently available reserve selection tools do however not offer the ability to handle multiple, alternative options per site. This thesis extends the existing methodology for reserve design, by offering methods to identify cost-effective conservation planning solutions when multiple, alternative conservation options are available per site. Although restoration and maintenance measures are beneficial to certain species, they can be harmful to other species with different requirements. This introduces trade-offs between species when identifying which conservation action is best applied to which site. The thesis describes how the strength of such trade-offs can be identified, which is useful for assessing consequences of conservation decisions regarding species priorities and budget. Furthermore, the results of the thesis indicate that spatial SHDMs can be successfully used to account for species-specific requirements for spatial cohesion - in the reserve selection (single-option) context as well as in the multi-option context. Accounting for the spatial requirements of multiple species and allowing for several conservation options is however complicated, due to trade-offs in species requirements. It is also shown that spatial SHDMs can be successfully used for gaining information on factors that drive a species spatial distribution. Such information is valuable to conservation planning, as better knowledge on species requirements facilitates the design of networks for species persistence. This methods and results described in this thesis aim to improve species probabilities of persistence, by taking better account of species habitat and spatial requirements. Many real-world conservation planning problems are characterised by a variety of conservation options related to protection, restoration and maintenance of habitat. Planning tools therefore need to be able to incorporate multiple conservation options per site, in order to continue the search for cost-effective conservation planning solutions. Simultaneously, the spatial requirements of species need to be considered. The methods described in this thesis offer a starting point for combining these two relevant aspects of conservation planning.

Testing concordance in species boundaries using acoustic, morphological, and molecular data in the field cricket genus Itaropsis (Orthoptera: Grylloidea, Gryllidae: Gryllinae)

In most taxa, species boundaries are inferred based on differences in morphology or DNA sequences revealed by taxonomic or phylogenetic analyses. In crickets, acoustic mating signals or calling songs have species-specific structures and provide a third data set to infer species boundaries. We examined the concordance in species boundaries obtained using acoustic, morphological, and molecular data sets in the field cricket genus Itaropsis. This genus is currently described by only one valid species, Itaropsis tenella, with a broad distribution in western peninsular India and Sri Lanka. Calling songs of males sampled from four sites in peninsular India exhibited significant differences in a number of call features, suggesting the existence of multiple species. Cluster analysis of the acoustic data, molecular phylogenetic analyses, and phylogenetic analyses combining all data sets suggested the existence of three clades. Whatever the differences in calling signals, no full congruence was obtained between all the data sets, even though the resultant lineages were largely concordant with the acoustic clusters. The genus Itaropsis could thus be represented by three morphologically cryptic incipient species in peninsular India; their distributions are congruent with usual patterns of endemism in the Western Ghats, India. Song evolution is analysed through the divergence in syllable period, syllable and call duration, and dominant frequency.

Using intra-flock association patterns to understand why birds participate in mixed-species foraging flocks in terrestrial habitats

Bird species are hypothesized to join mixed-species flocks (flocks hereon) either for direct foraging or anti-predation-related benefits. In this study, conducted in a tropical evergreen forest in the Western Ghats of India, we used intra-flock association patterns to generate a community-wide assessment of flocking benefits for different species. We assumed that individuals needed to be physically proximate to particular heterospecific individuals within flocks to obtain any direct foraging benefit (flushed prey, kleptoparasitism, copying foraging locations). Alternatively, for anti-predation benefits, physical proximity to particular heterospecifics is not required, i.e. just being in the flock vicinity can suffice. Therefore, we used choice of locations within flocks to infer whether individual species are obtaining direct foraging or anti-predation benefits. A small subset of the bird community (5/29 species), composed of all members of the sallying guild, showed non-random physical proximity to heterospecifics within flocks. All preferred associates were from non-sallying guilds, suggesting that the sallying species were likely obtaining direct foraging benefits either in the form of flushed or kleptoparasitized prey. The majority of the species (24/29) chose locations randomly with respect to heterospecifics within flocks and, thus, were likely obtaining antipredation benefits. In summary, our study indicates that direct foraging benefits are important for only a small proportion of species in flocks and that predation is likely to be the main driver of flocking for most participants. Our findings apart, our study provides methodological advances that might be useful in understanding asymmetric interactions in social groups of single and multiple species.

Measurements of total scattering spectra from bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis)

Marine sportfishing in southern California is a huge industry with annual revenues totaling many billions of dollars. However, the stocks of lingcod and six rockfish species have been declared overfished by the Pacific Fisheries Management Council. As part of a multifaceted fisheries management plan, marine conservation areas, covering many million square nautical miles, have been mandated. To monitor the recovery of the rockfish stocks in these areas, scientists are faced with the following challenges: 1) multiple species of rockfish exist in these areas; 2) the species reside near or on the bottom at depths of 80 to 300 m; and 3) they are low in numerical density. To meet these challenges, multifrequency echosounders, multibeam sonar, and cameras mounted on remotely operated vehicles are frequently used (Reynolds et al., 2001). The accuracy and precision of these echosounder results are largely dependent upon the accuracy of the species classification and target strength estimation (MacLennan and Simmonds, 1992).

Genome 10K: A Proposal to Obtain Whole-Genome Sequence for 10 000 Vertebrate Species

The human genome project has been recently complemented by whole-genome assessment sequence of 32 mammals and 24 nonmammalian vertebrate species suitable for comparative genomic analyses. Here we anticipate a precipitous drop in costs and increase in sequ