Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

America's Shifting Color Line? Reexamining Determinants of Latino Racial Self-Identification

Objectives. Latinos are the nation's largest minority group and will double in size by 2050. Their size coupled with the fact that Latinos do not constitute a separate race raises questions about Latinos' incorporation into the U. S. racial hierarchy. This article explores patterns of Latino racial identity formation, examining the determinants of racial identity. Methods. Using the 2006 Latino National Survey, I estimate multinomial logit and ordered probit models of identification choices. Results. Latino racial identity is strongly associated with several factors, including socioeconomic status, measures of perceived discrimination and commonality, and measures of acculturation/assimilation. Most Latinos have a broader, more complex understanding of race. Furthermore, some Latinos do believe that they occupy a unique position in the racial hierarchy. Conclusions. The results suggest that the color line W. E. DuBois argued has long divided our nation may eventually shift.

Now You See it, Now You Don't: Why Do Real Estate Agents Withhold Available Houses from Black Customers?

Potential home buyers may initiate contact with a real estate agent by asking to see a particular advertised house. This paper asks whether an agent's response to such a request depends on the race of the potential buyer or on whether the house is located in an integrated neighborhood. We build on previous research about the causes of discrimination in housing by using data from fair housing audits, a matched-pair technique for comparing the treatment of equllay qualified black and white home buyers. However, we shift the focus from differences in the treatment of paired buyers to agent decisions concerning an individual housing unit using a sample of all houses seen during he 1989 Housing Discrimination study. We estimate a random effect, multinomial logit model to explain a real estate agent's joint decisions concerning whether to show each unit to a black auditor and to a white auditor. We find evidence that agents withhold houses in suburban, integrated neighborhoods from all customers (redlining), that agents' decisions to show houses in integrated neighborhoods are not the same for black and white customers (steering), and that the houses agents show are more likely to deviate from the initial request when the customeris black than when the customer is white. These deviations are consistent with the possibility that agents act upon the belief that some types of transactions are relatively unlikely for black customers (statistical discrimination).

Factors that influence the decision to produce exportables in the Chilean agricultural sector

This study analyzes there lative importance of the factors that influence the decision to produce for foreign markets in the Chilean agricultural sector. Using data obtained from personal interviews with 368 farmers, the market/production decision was estimated using a multinomial logit model. Three market/production alternatives were analyzed: production aimed for the external market, production for the internal market but with expectations of being exported, and production targeted only for the internal market. Marginal effects, odds ratios and predicted probabilities were used to identify the relevance of each variable. The results showed that a producer that is male, with a higher educational level, that does not own the land, but rents it, whose farm has irrigation and is located in an area that has a high concentration of exporting producers, will have a high probability of producing exportables. However, the factor that has the highest impact on producing for the external market is the geographic concentration of exporting producers, that is, an export spillover effect. Indeed, when the concentration change from 0 to its maximum (0.26), the odds of producing exportables rather than producing traditional products increases by a factor of 70 (against a factor of 10 in the case of irrigation).

Transport modal choice by multinational firms : firm-level evidence from Southeast Asia

We examine transport modal decision by multinational firms to shed light on the role of freight logistics in multinational activity. Using a firm-level survey in Southeast Asia, we show that foreign ownership has a significantly positive and quantitatively large impact on the likelihood that air/sea transportation is chosen relative to truck shipping. This result is robust to the shipping distance, cross-border freight, and transport infrastructure. Both foreign-owned exporters and importers also tend to use air/sea transportation. Thus, our analysis presents a new distinction between multinational and domestic firms in their decision over transport modes.

Employment rate impacts of charging the Heavy Good Vehicle corridor (Madrid-Sevilla) across Spanish regions: a Random Utility Based Multiregional Input-Output approach

The implementation of a charging policy for heavy goods vehicles in European Union (EU) member countries has been imposed to reflect costs of construction and maintenance of infrastructure as well as externalities such as congestion, accidents and environmental impact. In this context, EU countries approved the Eurovignette directive (1999/62/EC) and its amending directive (2006 /38/EC) which established a legal framework to regulate the system of tolls. Even if that regulation seek s to increase the efficien cy of freight, it will trigger direct and indirect effects on Spain’s regional economies by increasing transport costs. This paper presents the development of a multiregional Input-Output methodology (MRIO) with elastic trade coefficients to predict in terregional trade, using transport attributes integrated in multinomial logit models. This method is highly useful to carry out an ex-ante evaluation of transport policies because it involves road freight transport cost sensitivity, and determine regional distributive and substitution economic effect s of countries like Spain, characterized by socio-demographic and economic attributes, differentiated region by region. It will thus be possible to determine cost-effective strategies, given different policy scenarios. MRIO mode l would then be used to determine the impact on the employment rate of imposing a charge in the Madrid-Sevilla corridor in Spain. This methodology is important for measuring the impact on the employment rate since it is one of the main macroeconomic indicators of Spain’s regional and national economic situation. A previous research developed (DESTINO) using a MRIO method estimated employment impacts of road pricing policy across Spanish regions considering a fuel tax charge (€/liter) in the entire shortest cost path network for freight transport. Actually, it found that the variation in employment is expected to be substantial for some regions, and negligible for others. For example, in this Spanish case study of regional employment has showed reductions between 16.1% (Rioja) and 1.4% (Madrid region). This variation range seems to be related to either the intensity of freight transport in each region or dependency of regions to transport intensive economic sect ors. In fact, regions with freight transport intensive sectors will lose more jobs while regions with a predominantly service economy undergo a fairly insignificant loss of employment. This paper is focused on evaluating a freight transport vehicle-kilometer charge (€/km) in a non-tolled motorway corridor (A-4) between Madrid-Sevilla (517 Km.). The consequences of the road pricing policy implementation show s that the employment reductions are not as high as the diminution stated in the previous research because this corridor does not affect the whole freight transport system of Spain.

Stochastic choice analysis of tourism destinations

The analysis of tourist destination choice, defined by intra-country administrative units and by product types “coastal/inland and village/city”, permits the characterisation of tourist flow behaviour, which is fundamental for public planning and business management. In this study, we analyse the determinant factors of tourist destination choice, proposing various research hypotheses relative to the impact of destination attributes and the personal characteristics of tourists. The methodology applied estimates Nested and Random Coefficients Multinomial Logit Models, which allow control over possible correlations among different destinations. The empirical application is realised in Spain on a sample of 3,781 individuals and allows us to conclude that prices, distance to the destination and personal motivations are determinants in destination choice.

The negative effects of failed service recoveries

Research has shown that more than half of attempted recovery efforts fail, producing a ‘double deviation’ effect. Surprisingly, these double deviation effects have received little attention in marketing literature. This paper examines what happens after these critical encounters, which behavior or set of behaviors the customers are prone to follow and how customers’ perceptions of the firm’s recovery efforts influence these behaviors. For the analysis of choice of the type of response (complaining, exit, complaining and exit, and no-switching), we estimate multinomial Logit models with random coefficients (RCL). The results of our study show that magnitude of service failure, explanations, apologies, perceived justice, angry and frustration felt by the customer, and satisfaction with service recovery have a significant effect on customers’ choice of the type of response. Implications from the findings are offered.

Testing reference dependence, loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in Spanish tourism

Based on Tversky and Kahneman’s Prospect Theory, we test the existence of reference dependence, loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in Spanish tourism. To do this, we incorporate the reference-dependent model into a Multinomial Logit Model with Random Parameters -which controls for heterogeneity- and apply it to a sample of vacation choices made by Spaniards. We find that the difference between reference price and actual price is considered to make decisions, confirming that reference dependence exists; that people react more strongly to price increases than to price decreases relative to their reference price, which represents evidence in favor of the loss aversion phenomenon; and that there is diminishing sensitivity for losses only, showing convexity for these negative values.

Direct versus indirect channels: Differentiated loss aversion in a high‐involvement, non‐frequently purchased hedonic product

Purpose – This article aims to investigate whether intermediaries reduce loss aversion in the context of a high-involvement non-frequently purchased hedonic product (tourism packages). Design/methodology/approach – The study incorporates the reference-dependent model into a multinomial logit model with random parameters, which controls for heterogeneity and allows representation of different correlation patterns between non-independent alternatives. Findings – Differentiated loss aversion is found: consumers buying high-involvement non-frequently purchased hedonic products are less loss averse when using an intermediary than when dealing with each provider separately and booking their services independently. This result can be taken as identifying consumer-based added value provided by the intermediaries. Practical implications – Knowing the effect of an increase in their prices is crucial for tourism collective brands (e.g. “sun and sea”, “inland”, “green destinations”, “World Heritage destinations”). This is especially applicable nowadays on account of the fact that many destinations have lowered prices to attract tourists (although, in the future, they will have to put prices back up to their normal levels). The negative effect of raising prices can be absorbed more easily via indirect channels when compared to individual providers, as the influence of loss aversion is lower for the former than the latter. The key implication is that intermediaries can – and should – add value in competition with direct e-tailing. Originality/value – Research on loss aversion in retailing has been prolific, exclusively focused on low-involvement and frequently purchased products without distinguishing the direct or indirect character of the distribution channel. However, less is known about other types of products such as high-involvement non-frequently purchased hedonic products. This article focuses on the latter and analyzes different patterns of loss aversion in direct and indirect channels.

Neighborhoods neighboring neighborhoods: adjacency, relative position and tract-level racial change in the U.S. 2000 to 2010

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Methods for Categorical Longitudinal Survey Data: Understanding Employment Status of Australian Women

Many variables that are of interest in social science research are nominal variables with two or more categories, such as employment status, occupation, political preference, or self-reported health status. With longitudinal survey data it is possible to analyse the transitions of individuals between different employment states or occupations (for example). In the statistical literature, models for analysing categorical dependent variables with repeated observations belong to the family of models known as generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). The specific GLMM for a dependent variable with three or more categories is the multinomial logit random effects model. For these models, the marginal distribution of the response does not have a closed form solution and hence numerical integration must be used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters. Techniques for implementing the numerical integration are available but are computationally intensive requiring a large amount of computer processing time that increases with the number of clusters (or individuals) in the data and are not always readily accessible to the practitioner in standard software. For the purposes of analysing categorical response data from a longitudinal social survey, there is clearly a need to evaluate the existing procedures for estimating multinomial logit random effects model in terms of accuracy, efficiency and computing time. The computational time will have significant implications as to the preferred approach by researchers. In this paper we evaluate statistical software procedures that utilise adaptive Gaussian quadrature and MCMC methods, with specific application to modeling employment status of women using a GLMM, over three waves of the HILDA survey.

Entrepreneurs, expectations and business expansion:lessons from Lithuania

This article applies a multinomial logit estimator to investigate which factors affect SME owners' expectations to grow their businesses in Lithuania. Our findings provide evidence that SME owners' human capital (education) matters and that growth expectations are positively related to exporting. In addition, we analyse the link between the perceptions of business constraints and growth expectations and find that the factors, which are perceived as main business barriers, are not necessarily those which are associated with reduced growth expectations. However, perceptions of corruption seem to affect growth expectations the most.

When moving information online diminishes change:advisory services to SMEs

Improving the performance of private sector small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in a cost effective manner is a major concern for government. Governments have saved costs by moving information online rather than through more expensive face-to-face exchanges between advisers and clients. Building on previous work that distinguished between types of advice, this article evaluates whether these changes to delivery mechanisms affect the type of advice received. Using a multinomial logit model of 1334 cases of business advice to small firms collected in England, the study found that advice to improve capabilities was taken by smaller firms who were less likely to have limited liability or undertake business planning. SMEs sought word-of-mouth referrals before taking internal, capability-enhancing advice. This is also the case when that advice was part of a wider package of assistance involving both internal and external aspects. Only when firms took advice that used extant capabilities did they rely on the Internet. Therefore, when the Internet is privileged over face-to-face advice the changes made by each recipient of advice are likely to diminish causing less impact from advice within the economy. It implies that fewer firms will adopt the sorts of management practices that would improve their productivity. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

Trading between perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar biological treatment in Crohn’s disease; discrete choice experiment among gastroenterologists

Objective: The objective of the study is to explore preferences of gastroenterologists for biosimilar drugs in Crohn’s Disease and reveal trade-offs between the perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar drugs. Method: Discrete choice experiment was carried out involving 51 Hungarian gastroenterologists in May, 2014. The following attributes were used to describe hypothetical choice sets: 1) type of the treatment (biosimilar/originator) 2) severity of disease 3) availability of continuous medicine supply 4) frequency of the efficacy check-ups. Multinomial logit model was used to differentiate between three attitude types: 1) always opting for the originator 2) willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only 3) willing to consider biosimilar treatment for both types of patients. Conditional logit model was used to estimate the probabilities of choosing a given profile. Results: Men, senior consultants, working in IBD center and treating more patients are more likely to willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only. Treatment type (originator/biosimilar) was the most important determinant of choice for patients already treated with biologicals, and the availability of continuous medicine supply in the case biological-naïve patients. The probabilities of choosing the biosimilar with all the benefits offered over the originator under current reimbursement conditions are 89% vs 11% for new patients, and 44% vs 56% for patients already treated with biological. Conclusions: Gastroenterologists were willing to trade between perceived risks and benefits of biosimilars. The continuous medical supply would be one of the major benefits of biosimilars. However, benefits offered in the scenarios do not compensate for the change from the originator to the biosimilar treatment of patients already treated with biologicals.