Decision analysis for the genotype designation in low-template-DNA profiles

What genotype should the scientist specify for conducting a database search to try to find the source of a low-template-DNA (lt-DNA) trace? When the scientist answers this question, he or she makes a decision. Here, we approach this decision problem from a normative point of view by defining a decision-theoretic framework for answering this question for one locus. This framework combines the probability distribution describing the uncertainty over the trace's donor's possible genotypes with a loss function describing the scientist's preferences concerning false exclusions and false inclusions that may result from the database search. According to this approach, the scientist should choose the genotype designation that minimizes the expected loss. To illustrate the results produced by this approach, we apply it to two hypothetical cases: (1) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on a single electropherogram, and (2) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on one replicate, and a pair of peaks for alleles xi and xj, i ≠ j, on a second replicate. Given that the probabilities of allele drop-out are defined as functions of the observed peak heights, the threshold values marking the turning points when the scientist should switch from one designation to another are derived in terms of the observed peak heights. For each case, sensitivity analyses show the impact of the model's parameters on these threshold values. The results support the conclusion that the procedure should not focus on a single threshold value for making this decision for all alleles, all loci and in all laboratories.

Data Envelopment Analysis and non-discretionary inputs : How to select the most suitable model using multi-criteria decision analysis

Within Data Envelopment Analysis, several alternative models allow for an environmental adjustment. The majority of them deliver divergent results. Decision makers face the difficult task of selecting the most suitable model. This study is performed to overcome this difficulty. By doing so, it fills a research gap. First, a two-step web-based survey is conducted. It aims (1) to identify the selection criteria, (2) to prioritize and weight the selection criteria with respect to the goal of selecting the most suitable model and (3) to collect the preferences about which model is preferable to fulfil each selection criterion. Second, Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to quantify the preferences expressed in the survey. Results show that the understandability, the applicability and the acceptability of the alternative models are valid selection criteria. The selection of the most suitable model depends on the preferences of the decision makers with regards to these criteria.

Decision analysis of the effectiveness of lung cancer screening using autofluorescence bronchoscopy and computed tomography

Background: Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in the developed world. Most cancers are associated with tobacco smoking. A primary hope for reducing lung cancer has been prevention of smoking and successful smoking cessation programs. To date, these programs have not been as successful as anticipated. Objective: The aim of the current study was to evaluate whether lung cancer screening combining low dose computed tomography with autofluorescence bronchoscopy (combined CT & AFB) is superior to CT or AFB screening alone in improving lung cancer specific survival. In addition, the extent of improvement and ideal conditions for combined CT & AFB screening were evaluated. Methods: We applied decision analysis and Monte Carlo simulation modeling using TreeAge Software to evaluate our study aims. Histology- and stage specific probabilities of lung cancer 5-year survival proportions were taken from Surveillance and Epidemiologic End Results (SEER) Registry data. Screeningassociated data was taken from the US NCI Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO), National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), and US NCI Lung Screening Study (LSS), other relevant published data and expert opinion. Results: Decision Analysis - Combined CT and AFB was the best approach at Improving 5-year survival (Overall Expected Survival (OES) in the entire screened population was 0.9863) and in lung cancer patients only (Lung Cancer Specific Expected Survival (LOSES) was 0.3256). Combined screening was slightly better than CT screening alone (OES = 0.9859; LCSES = 0.2966), and substantially better than AFB screening alone (OES = 0.9842; LCSES = 0.2124), which was considerably better than no screening (OES = 0.9829; LCSES = 0.1445). Monte Carlo simulation modeling revealed that expected survival in the screened population and lung cancer patients is highest when screened using CT and combined CT and AFB. CT alone and combined screening was substantially better than AFB screening alone or no screening. For LCSES, combined CT and AFB screening is significantly better than CT alone (0.3126 vs. 0.2938, p< 0.0001). Conclusions: Overall, these analyses suggest that combined CT and AFB is slightly better than CT alone at improving lung cancer survival, and both approaches are substantially better than AFB screening alone or no screening.

Prévention de la maladie de Lyme : facteurs sociaux et priorisation des interventions

La maladie de Lyme est la maladie vectorielle la plus fréquente dans les pays tempérés et est en émergence dans plusieurs régions du monde. Plusieurs stratégies de prévention existent et comprennent des interventions qui visent les individus, comme le port de vêtements protecteurs, et d’autres qui sont implantées au niveau collectif, dont des interventions de contrôle des tiques dans l’environnement. L’efficacité de ces stratégies peut être influencée par divers facteurs, dont des facteurs sociaux tels que les connaissances, les perceptions et les comportements de la population ciblée. Elles peuvent également avoir des impacts parallèles non désirés, par exemple sur l’environnement et l’économie, et ces derniers peuvent s’opposer aux bénéfices des interventions jusqu’à remettre en cause la pertinence de leur mise en œuvre. Aussi, ces facteurs sociaux et les impacts des interventions sont susceptibles de varier selon la population ciblée et en fonction du contexte épidémiologique et social. L’objectif de cette thèse était donc d’étudier les principaux facteurs sociaux et enjeux d’importance à considérer pour évaluer l’efficacité et prioriser des interventions de prévention pour la maladie de Lyme dans deux populations exposées à des contextes différents, notamment en ce qui concerne leur situation épidémiologique, soient au Québec, où l’incidence de la maladie de Lyme est faible mais en émergence, et en Suisse, où elle est élevée et endémique depuis plus de trois décennies. L’approche choisie et le devis général de l’étude sont basés sur deux modèles théoriques principaux, soient le modèle des croyances relatives à la santé et celui de l’aide à la décision multicritère. Dans un premier temps, les facteurs associés à la perception du risque pour la maladie de Lyme, c’est-à-dire l’évaluation cognitive d’une personne face au risque auquel elle fait face, ont été étudiés. Les résultats suggèrent que les facteurs significatifs sont différents dans les deux régions à l’étude. Ensuite, l’impact des connaissances, de l’exposition, et des perceptions sur l’adoption de comportements préventifs individuels et sur l’acceptabilité des interventions de contrôle des tiques (acaricides, modifications de l’habitat, contrôle des cervidés) a été comparé. Les résultats suggèrent que l’impact des facteurs varierait en fonction du type du comportement et des interventions, mais que la perception de l’efficacité est un facteur commun fortement associé à ces deux aspects, et pourrait être un facteur-clé à cibler lors de campagnes de communication. Les résultats montrent également que les enjeux relatifs aux interventions de contrôle des tiques tels que perçus par la population générale seraient communs dans les deux contextes de l’étude, et partagés par les intervenants impliqués dans la prévention de la maladie de Lyme. Finalement, un modèle d’analyse multicritère a été développé à l’aide d’une approche participative pour le contexte du Québec puis adapté pour le contexte suisse et a permis d’évaluer et de prioriser les interventions préventives selon les différentes perspectives des intervenants. Les rangements produits par les modèles au Québec et en Suisse ont priorisé les interventions qui ciblent principalement les populations humaines, devant les interventions de contrôle des tiques. L’application de l’aide à la décision multicritère dans le contexte de la prévention de la maladie de Lyme a permis de développer un modèle décisionnel polyvalent et adaptable à différents contextes, dont la situation épidémiologique. Ces travaux démontrent que cette approche peut intégrer de façon rigoureuse et transparente les multiples perspectives des intervenants et les enjeux de la prévention relatifs à la santé publique, à la santé animale et environnementale, aux impacts sociaux, ainsi qu’aux considérations économiques, opérationnelles et stratégiques. L’utilisation de ces modèles en santé publique favoriserait l’adoption d’une approche « Une seule santé » pour la prévention de la maladie de Lyme et des zoonoses en général. Mots-clés : maladie de Lyme, prévention, facteurs sociaux, perception du risque, comportements préventifs, acceptabilité, priorisation des interventions, contrôle des tiques, aide à la décision multicritère, analyse multicritère, Québec, Suisse, « Une seule santé »

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Groundwater favorability map using GIS multicriteria data analysis on crystalline terrain, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

This paper presents the groundwater favorability mapping on a fractured terrain in the eastern portion of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Remote sensing, airborne geophysical data, photogeologic interpretation, geologic and geomorphologic maps and geographic information system (GIS) techniques have been used. The results of cross-tabulation between these maps and well yield data allowed groundwater prospective parameters in a fractured-bedrock aquifer. These prospective parameters are the base for the favorability analysis whose principle is based on the knowledge-driven method. The mutticriteria analysis (weighted linear combination) was carried out to give a groundwater favorabitity map, because the prospective parameters have different weights of importance and different classes of each parameter. The groundwater favorability map was tested by cross-tabulation with new well yield data and spring occurrence. The wells with the highest values of productivity, as well as all the springs occurrence are situated in the excellent and good favorabitity mapped areas. It shows good coherence between the prospective parameters and the well yield and the importance of GIS techniques for definition of target areas for detail study and wells location. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-criteria spatial decision analysis for demarcation of greenway: A case study of the city of Rio Claro, São Paulo, Brazil

Concern regarding hydrological resources has been a theme of growing importance in Brazil, associating the development of new management policies and maintenance of natural areas related to rivers. An efficient way to maintain natural areas around rivers has been the development of greenways, and some cites have already adopted specific legislation in this respect. Following this growing evolution in the treatment of hydrological resources, this study was carried out to demarcate a greenway along the Corumbatai River in the state of São Paulo, Using multi-criteria analysis in a GIS environment. First, thematic maps were elaborated based on Landsat 7 satellite, aerial photographs and digital topographic base, Supported by field activities. With the use of multi-criteria analysis, for which ad hoe consultations were conducted to attribute weights to the thematic maps, a suitability map was elaborated for the allocation of the greenway. Sites that should be included in the greenway were also selected, such as areas appropriate for leisure activities, and ecologically important areas. Based on the suitability map, a pathway analysis was done, connecting the relevant points of interest, thus generating a greenway that runs along the Corumbatai River, with the aim of contributing to the conservation of this important hydrological resource. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sharing decisions in breast cancer care: Development of the Decision Analysis System for Oncology (DAS-O) to identify shared decision making during treatment consultations

Shared Decision Making (SDM) is widely accepted as the preferred method for reaching treatment decisions in the oncology setting including those about clinical trial participation: however, there is some disagreement between researchers over the components of SDM. Specific standardized coding systems are needed to help overcome this difficulty.

Strategies for the prevention of postoperative recurrence in Crohn's disease: results of a decision analysis

Nearly 70% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) undergo surgical resection, with one-quarter subsequently developing clinical recurrence within 12 months. Several options exist for the prevention of postoperative recurrence in CD, but the comparative cost effectiveness of these competing strategies has not been previously analyzed.

Usefulness of preemptive anticoagulation in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism: a decision analysis

The diagnostic workup of pulmonary embolism (PE) may take several hours. The usefulness of anticoagulant treatment while awaiting the results of diagnostic tests has not been assessed. The objective of this study was to compare the risks and benefits of bid low-molecular-weight heparin vs no treatment in patients with suspected PE.

Prophylactic mastectomy and oophorectomy for women at risk of breast and ovarian cancer: Incorporating preferences in a decision analysis

The discoveries of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes have made it possible for women of families with hereditary breast/ovarian cancer to determine if they carry cancer-predisposing genetic mutations. Women with germline mutations have significantly higher probabilities of developing both cancers than the general population. Since the presence of a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation does not guarantee future cancer development, the appropriate course of action remains uncertain for these women. Prophylactic mastectomy and oophorectomy remain controversial since the underlying premise for surgical intervention is based more upon reduction in the estimated risk of cancer than on actual evidence of clinical benefit. Issues that are incorporated in a woman's decision making process include quality of life without breasts, ovaries, attitudes toward possible surgical morbidity as well as a remaining risk of future development of breast/ovarian cancer despite prophylactic surgery. The incorporation of patient preferences into decision analysis models can determine the quality-adjusted survival of different prophylactic approaches to breast/ovarian cancer prevention. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted on 4 separate decision models representing prophylactic oophorectomy, prophylactic mastectomy, prophylactic oophorectomy/mastectomy and screening. The use of 3 separate preference assessment methods across different populations of women allows researchers to determine how quality adjusted survival varies according to clinical strategy, method of preference assessment and the population from which preferences are assessed. ^

Outsourcing and acquisition models comparison related to IT supplier selection decision analysis

This paper presents a comparison of acquisition models related to decision analysis of IT supplier selection. The main standards are: Capability Maturity Model Integration for Acquisition (CMMI-ACQ), ISO / IEC 12207 Information Technology / Software Life Cycle Processes, IEEE 1062 Recommended Practice for Software Acquisition, the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) guide. The objective of this paper is to compare the previous models to find the advantages and disadvantages of them for the future development of a decision model for IT supplier selection.