Potencial de la producción de bioelectricidad de las Comarcas Agrarias de la Comunidad de Madrid en base a centeno y triticale

En el presente trabajo se estudia la producción potencial de biomasa procedente de los cultivos de centeno y triticale en las seis comarcas agrarias de la Comunidad de Madrid (CM) y la posibilidad de su aplicación a la producción de bioelectricidad en cada una de ellas. En primer lugar se realiza un estudio bibliográfico de la situación actual de la bioelectricidad. Uno de los principales datos a tener en cuenta es que en el PER 2011- 2020 se estima que el total de potencia eléctrica instalada a partir de biomasa en España en el año 2020 sea de 1.350 MW, unas dos veces y media la existente a finales de 2010. Además, se comenta el estado de la incentivación del uso de biomasa de cultivos energéticos para producción de electricidad, la cual se regula actualmente según el Real Decreto-ley 9/2013, de 12 de Julio, por el que se adoptaron medidas urgentes para garantizar la estabilidad financiera del sistema eléctrico, y se consideran los criterios de sostenibilidad en el uso de biocombustibles sólidos. Se realiza una caracterización de las seis comarcas agrarias que forman la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid: Área Metropolitana, Campiña, Guadarrama, Lozoya- Somosierra, Sur-Occidental y Vegas, la cual consta de dos partes: una descripción de la climatología y otra de la distribución de la superficie dedicada a barbecho y cultivos herbáceos. Se hace una recopilación bibliográfica de los modelos de simulación más representativos de crecimiento de los cultivos (CERES y Cereal YES), así como de ensayos realizados con los cultivos de centeno y triticale para la producción de biomasa y de estudios efectuados mediante herramientas GIS y técnicas de análisis multicriterio para la ubicación de centrales de bioelectricidad y el estudio de la logística de la biomasa. Se propone un modelo de simulación de la productividad de biomasa de centeno y de triticale para la CM, que resulta de la combinación de un modelo de producción de grano en base a datos climatológicos y a la relación biomasa/grano media de ambos cultivos obtenida en una experiencia previa. Los modelos obtenidos responden a las siguientes ecuaciones (siendo TN = temperatura media normalizada a 9,9 ºC y PN = precipitación acumulada normalizada a 496,7 mm): - Producción biomasa centeno (t m.s./ha) = 2,785 * [1,078 * ln(TN + 2*PN) + 2,3256] - Producción biomasa triticale (t m.s./ha) = 2,595 * [2,4495 * ln(TN + 2*PN) + 2,6103] Posteriormente, aplicando los modelos desarrollados, se cuantifica el potencial de producción de biomasa de centeno y triticale en las distintas comarcas agrarias de la CM en cada uno de los escenarios establecidos, que se consideran según el uso de la superficie de barbecho de secano disponible (25%, 50%, 75% y 100%). Las producciones potenciales de biomasa, que se podrían alcanzar en la CM utilizando el 100% de la superficie de barbecho de secano, en base a los cultivos de centeno y triticale, se estimaron en 169.710,72 - 149.811,59 - 140.217,54 - 101.583,01 - 26.961,88 y 1.886,40 t anuales para las comarcas de Campiña - Vegas, Sur - Occidental - Área Metropolitana - Lozoya-Somosierra y Guadarrama, respectivamente. Se realiza un análisis multicriterio basado en la programación de compromiso para definir las comarcas agrarias con mejores características para la ubicación de centrales de bioelectricidad en base a los criterios de potencial de biomasa, infraestructura eléctrica, red de carreteras, espacios protegidos y superficie de núcleos urbanos. Al efectuar el análisis multicriterio, se obtiene la siguiente ordenación jerárquica en base a los criterios establecidos: Campiña, Sur Occidental, Vegas, Área Metropolitana, Lozoya-Somosierra y Guadarrama. Mediante la utilización de técnicas GIS se estudia la localización más conveniente de una central de bioelectricidad de 2,2 MW en cada una de las comarcas agrarias y según el uso de la superficie de barbecho de secano disponible (25%, 50%, 75% y 100%), siempre que exista potencial suficiente. Para el caso de la biomasa de centeno y de triticale en base seca se considera un PCI de 3500 kcal/kg, por lo que se necesitarán como mínimo 17.298,28 toneladas para satisfacer las necesidades de cada una de las centrales de 2,2 MW. Se analiza el potencial máximo de bioelectricidad en cada una de las comarcas agrarias en base a los cultivos de centeno y triticale como productores de biomasa. Según se considere el 25% o el 100% del barbecho de secano para producción de biomasa, la potencia máxima de bioelectricidad que se podría instalar en cada una de las comarcas agrarias variaría entre 5,4 y 21,58 MW en la comarca Campiña, entre 4,76 y 19,05 MW en la comarca Vegas, entre 4,46 y 17,83 MW en la comarca Sur Occidental, entre 3,23 y 12,92 MW en la comarca Área Metropolitana, entre 0,86 y 3,43 MW en la comarca Lozoya Somosierra y entre 0,06 y 0,24 MW en la comarca Guadarrama. La potencia total que se podría instalar en la CM a partir de la biomasa de centeno y triticale podría variar entre 18,76 y 75,06 MW según que se utilice el 25% o el 100% de las tierras de barbecho de secano para su cultivo. ABSTRACT In this work is studied the potential biomass production from rye and triticale crops in the six Madrid Community (MC) agricultural regions and the possibility of its application to the bioelectricity production in each of them. First is performed a bibliographical study of the current situation of bioelectricity. One of the main elements to be considered is that in the PER 2011-2020 is estimated that the total installed electric power from biomass in Spain in 2020 was 1.350 MW, about two and a half times as at end 2010. Also is discussed the status of enhancing the use of biomass energy crops for electricity production, which is currently regulated according to the Real Decreto-ley 9/2013, of July 12, by which urgent measures were adopted to ensure financial stability of the electrical system, and there are considered the sustainability criteria in the use of solid biofuels. A characterization of the six Madrid Community agricultural regions is carried out: Area Metropolitana, Campiña, Guadarrama, Lozoya-Somosierra, Sur-Occidental and Vegas, which consists of two parts: a description of the climatology and another about the distribution of the area under fallow and arable crops. It makes a bibliographic compilation of the most representative crop growth simulation models (CERES and Cereal YES), as well as trials carried out with rye and triticale crops for biomass production and studies conducted by GIS tools and techniques multicriteria analysis for the location of bioelectricity centrals and the study of the logistics of biomass. Is proposed a biomass productivity simulation model for rye and triticale for MC that results from the combination of grain production model based on climatological data and the average relative biomass/grain of both crops obtained in a prior experience. The models obtained correspond to the following equations (where TN = normalized average temperature and PN = normalized accumulated precipitation): - Production rye biomass (t d.m./ha) = 2.785 * [1.078 * ln (TN + 2*PN) + 2.3256] - Production triticale biomass (t d.m./ha) = 2,595 * [2.4495 * ln (TN + 2*PN) + 2.6103] Subsequently, applying the developed models, the biomass potential of the MC agricultural regions is quantified in each of the scenarios established, which are considered as the use of dry fallow area available (25%, 50%, 75 % and 100%). The potential biomass production that can be achieved within the MC using 100% of the rainfed fallow area based on rye and triticale crops, were estimated at 169.710,72 - 149.811,59 - 140.217,54 - 101.583,01 - 26.961,88 and 1.886,40 t annual for the regions of Campiña, Vegas, Sur Occidental, Area Metropolitana, Lozoya- Somosierra and Guadarrama, respectively. A multicriteria analysis is performed, based on compromise programming to define the agricultural regions with better features for the location of bioelectricity centrals, on the basis of biomass potential, electrical infrastructure, road network, protected areas and urban area criteria. Upon multicriteria analysis, is obtained the following hierarchical order based on criteria: Campiña, Sur Occidental, Vegas, Area Metropolitana, Lozoya-Somosierra and Guadarrama. Likewise, through the use of GIS techniques, the most suitable location for a 2,2 MW bioelectricity plant is studied in each of the agricultural regions and according to the use of dry fallow area available (25%, 50% , 75% and 100%), if there is sufficient potential. In the case of biomass rye and triticale dry basis is considered a PCI of 3500 kcal/kg, so it will take at least 17,298.28 t to satisfy the needs of each plant. Is analyzed the maximum bioelectricity potential on each of the agricultural regions on the basis of the rye and triticale crops as biomass producers. As deemed 25% or 100% dry fallow for biomass, the maximum bioelectricity potential varies between 5,4 and 21,58 MW in the Campiña region, between 4,76 and 19,05 MW in the Vegas region, between 4,46 and 17,83 MW in the Sur Occidental region, between 3,23 and 12,92 MW in the Area Metropolitana region, between 0,86 and 3,43 MW in the Lozoya-Somosierra region and between 0,06 and 0,24 MW in the Guadarrama region. The total power that could be installed in the CM from rye and triticale biomass could vary between 18.76 and 75.06 MW if is used the 25% or 100% of fallow land for rainfed crop.

Assessment of innovative measures implemented in European bus systems using key performance indicators

This paper reports the results of the assessment of a range of measures implemented in bus systems in five European cities to improve the use of public transport by increasing its attractiveness and enhancing its image in urban areas. This research was conducted as part of the EBSF project (European Bus System of the Future) from 2008 to 2012. New buses (prototypes), new vehicle and infrastructure technologies, and operational best practices were introduced, all of which were combined in a system approach. The measures were assessed using multicriteria analysis to simultaneously evaluate a certain number of criteria that need to be aggregated. Each criterion is measured by one or more key performance indicators (KPI) calculated in two scenarios (reference scenario, with no measure implemented; and project scenario, with the implementation of some measures), in order to evaluate the difference in the KPI performance between the reference and project scenario. The results indicate that the measures produce a greater benefit in issues related to bus system productivity and customer satisfaction, with the greatest impact on aspects of perceptions of comfort, cleanliness and quality of service, information to passengers and environmental issues. The study also reveals that the implementation of several measures has greater social utility than very specific and isolated measures.

Estimating the recreational-use value for hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors' own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be $AUS 250,825 per year, or $AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies valuing recreational benefits. The management of the park can use these estimates when considering the introduction of a system of user pays fees. In addition, they might be important when decisions need to be made about the allocation of resources for maintenance or upgrade of tracks and facilities.

Biodiversity conservation planning tools: Present status and challenges for the future

Species extinctions and the deterioration of other biodiversity features worldwide have led to the adoption of systematic conservation planning in many regions of the world. As a consequence, various software tools for conservation planning have been developed over the past twenty years. These, tools implement algorithms designed to identify conservation area networks for the representation and persistence of biodiversity features. Budgetary, ethical, and other sociopolitical constraints dictate that the prioritized sites represent biodiversity with minimum impact on human interests. Planning tools are typically also used to satisfy these criteria. This chapter reviews both the concepts and technical choices that underlie the development of these tools. Conservation planning problems can be formulated as optimization problems, and we evaluate the suitability of different algorithms for their solution. Finally, we also review some key issues associated with the use of these tools, such as computational efficiency, the effectiveness of taxa and abiotic parameters at choosing surrogates for biodiversity, the process of setting explicit targets of representation for biodiversity surrogates, and

Community owned solutions: identifying local best practices for social-ecological sustainability

Policies and actions that come from higher scale structures, such as international bodies and national governments, are not always compatible with the realities and perspectives of smaller scale units including indigenous communities. Yet, it is at this local social-ecological scale that mechanisms and solutions for dealing with unpredictability and change can be increasingly seen emerging from across the world. Although there is a large body of knowledge specifying the conditions necessary to promote local governance of natural resources, there is a parallel need to develop practical methods for operationalizing the evaluation of local social-ecological systems. In this paper, we report on a systemic, participatory, and visual approach for engaging local communities in an exploration of their own social-ecological system. Working with indigenous communities of the North Rupununi, Guyana, this involved using participatory video and photography within a system viability framework to enable local participants to analyze their own situation by defining indicators of successful strategies that were meaningful to them. Participatory multicriteria analysis was then used to arrive at a short list of best practice strategies. We present six best practices and show how they are intimately linked through the themes of indigenous knowledge, local governance and values, and partnerships and networks. We highlight how developing shared narratives of community owned solutions can help communities to plan governance and management of land and resource systems, while reinforcing sustainable practices by discussing and showcasing them within communities, and by engendering a sense of pride in local solutions.

Modelo para distribuição de recursos nos municípios brasileiros baseado na lei de diretrizes orçamentárias, análise multicritério e programação linear

The municipal management in any country of the globe requires planning and allocation of resources evenly. In Brazil, the Law of Budgetary Guidelines (LDO) guides municipal managers toward that balance. This research develops a model that seeks to find the balance of the allocation of public resources in Brazilian municipalities, considering the LDO as a parameter. For this using statistical techniques and multicriteria analysis as a first step in order to define allocation strategies, based on the technical aspects arising from the municipal manager. In a second step, presented in linear programming based optimization where the objective function is derived from the preference of the results of the manager and his staff. The statistical representation is presented to support multicriteria development in the definition of replacement rates through time series. The multicriteria analysis was structured by defining the criteria, alternatives and the application of UTASTAR methods to calculate replacement rates. After these initial settings, an application of linear programming was developed to find the optimal allocation of enforcement resources of the municipal budget. Data from the budget of a municipality in southwestern Paraná were studied in the application of the model and analysis of results.

Mapping the likelihood of foot-and-mouth disease introduction along the border between Brazil and Paraguay.

The objective of this work was to apply fuzzy majority multicriteria group decision?making to determine risk areas for foot?and?mouth disease (FMD) introduction along the border between Brazil and Paraguay. The study was conducted in three municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, located along the border with Paraguay. Four scenarios were built, applying the following linguistic quantifiers to describe risk factors: few, half, many, and most. The three criteria considered to be most likely to affect the vulnerability to introduction of FMD, according to experts? opinions, were: the introduction of animals in the farm, the distance from the border, and the type of property settlements. The resulting maps show a strong spatial heterogeneity in the risk of FMD introduction. The used methodology brings out a new approach that can be helpful to policy makers in the combat and eradication of FMD.

Comparative analysis of multicriteria decision making methods

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Clean Development Mechanism and Sustainable Development: a discussion on the link between the CDM and Sustainable Development, an analysis of the current status of the CDM portfolio, and an multicriteria evaluation of the effects of additional incentives in order to foster broad local Sustainable Development dividends from the CDM projects

vegeu resum en el fitxer adjunt a l'inici del treball de recerca

New directions in Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis

Decisions taken in modern organizations are often multi-dimensional, involving multiple decision makers and several criteria measured on different scales. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods are designed to analyze and to give recommendations in this kind of situations. Among the numerous MCDM methods, two large families of methods are the multi-attribute utility theory based methods and the outranking methods. Traditionally both method families require exact values for technical parameters and criteria measurements, as well as for preferences expressed as weights. Often it is hard, if not impossible, to obtain exact values. Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) is a family of methods designed to help in this type of situations where exact values are not available. Different variants of SMAA allow handling all types of MCDM problems. They support defining the model through uncertain, imprecise, or completely missing values. The methods are based on simulation that is applied to obtain descriptive indices characterizing the problem. In this thesis we present new advances in the SMAA methodology. We present and analyze algorithms for the SMAA-2 method and its extension to handle ordinal preferences. We then present an application of SMAA-2 to an area where MCDM models have not been applied before: planning elevator groups for high-rise buildings. Following this, we introduce two new methods to the family: SMAA-TRI that extends ELECTRE TRI for sorting problems with uncertain parameter values, and SMAA-III that extends ELECTRE III in a similar way. An efficient software implementing these two methods has been developed in conjunction with this work, and is briefly presented in this thesis. The thesis is closed with a comprehensive survey of SMAA methodology including a definition of a unified framework.

Spatial multicriteria decision analysis for the siting of on-shore wind power in Kemiönsaari

Wind power is a low-carbon energy production form that reduces the dependence of society on fossil fuels. Finland has adopted wind energy production into its climate change mitigation policy, and that has lead to changes in legislation, guidelines, regional wind power areas allocation and establishing a feed-in tariff. Wind power production has indeed boosted in Finland after two decades of relatively slow growth, for instance from 2010 to 2011 wind energy production increased with 64 %, but there is still a long way to the national goal of 6 TWh by 2020. This thesis introduces a GIS-based decision-support methodology for the preliminary identification of suitable areas for wind energy production including estimation of their level of risk. The goal of this study was to define the least risky places for wind energy development within Kemiönsaari municipality in Southwest Finland. Spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) has been used for searching suitable wind power areas along with many other location-allocation problems. SMCDA scrutinizes complex ill-structured decision problems in GIS environment using constraints and evaluation criteria, which are aggregated using weighted linear combination (WLC). Weights for the evaluation criteria were acquired using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with nine expert interviews. Subsequently, feasible alternatives were ranked in order to provide a recommendation and finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the determination of recommendation robustness. The first study aim was to scrutinize the suitability and necessity of existing data for this SMCDA study. Most of the available data sets were of sufficient resolution and quality. Input data necessity was evaluated qualitatively for each data set based on e.g. constraint coverage and attribute weights. Attribute quality was estimated mainly qualitatively by attribute comprehensiveness, operationality, measurability, completeness, decomposability, minimality and redundancy. The most significant quality issue was redundancy as interdependencies are not tolerated by WLC and AHP does not include measures to detect them. The third aim was to define the least risky areas for wind power development within the study area. The two highest ranking areas were Nordanå-Lövböle and Påvalsby followed by Helgeboda, Degerdal, Pungböle, Björkboda, and Östanå-Labböle. The fourth aim was to assess the recommendation reliability, and the top-ranking two areas proved robust whereas the other ones were more sensitive.

Stability Analysis in Multicriteria Discrete Portfolio Optimization.

Almost every problem of design, planning and management in the technical and organizational systems has several conflicting goals or interests. Nowadays, multicriteria decision models represent a rapidly developing area of operation research. While solving practical optimization problems, it is necessary to take into account various kinds of uncertainty due to lack of data, inadequacy of mathematical models to real-time processes, calculation errors, etc. In practice, this uncertainty usually leads to undesirable outcomes where the solutions are very sensitive to any changes in the input parameters. An example is the investment managing. Stability analysis of multicriteria discrete optimization problems investigates how the found solutions behave in response to changes in the initial data (input parameters). This thesis is devoted to the stability analysis in the problem of selecting investment project portfolios, which are optimized by considering different types of risk and efficiency of the investment projects. The stability analysis is carried out in two approaches: qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative approach describes the behavior of solutions in conditions with small perturbations in the initial data. The stability of solutions is defined in terms of existence a neighborhood in the initial data space. Any perturbed problem from this neighborhood has stability with respect to the set of efficient solutions of the initial problem. The other approach in the stability analysis studies quantitative measures such as stability radius. This approach gives information about the limits of perturbations in the input parameters, which do not lead to changes in the set of efficient solutions. In present thesis several results were obtained including attainable bounds for the stability radii of Pareto optimal and lexicographically optimal portfolios of the investment problem with Savage's, Wald's criteria and criteria of extreme optimism. In addition, special classes of the problem when the stability radii are expressed by the formulae were indicated. Investigations were completed using different combinations of Chebyshev's, Manhattan and Hölder's metrics, which allowed monitoring input parameters perturbations differently.

Groundwater favorability map using GIS multicriteria data analysis on crystalline terrain, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

This paper presents the groundwater favorability mapping on a fractured terrain in the eastern portion of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Remote sensing, airborne geophysical data, photogeologic interpretation, geologic and geomorphologic maps and geographic information system (GIS) techniques have been used. The results of cross-tabulation between these maps and well yield data allowed groundwater prospective parameters in a fractured-bedrock aquifer. These prospective parameters are the base for the favorability analysis whose principle is based on the knowledge-driven method. The mutticriteria analysis (weighted linear combination) was carried out to give a groundwater favorabitity map, because the prospective parameters have different weights of importance and different classes of each parameter. The groundwater favorability map was tested by cross-tabulation with new well yield data and spring occurrence. The wells with the highest values of productivity, as well as all the springs occurrence are situated in the excellent and good favorabitity mapped areas. It shows good coherence between the prospective parameters and the well yield and the importance of GIS techniques for definition of target areas for detail study and wells location. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multicriteria decision analysis applied to cover crop species andcultivars selection

Cover crop selection should be oriented to the achievement of specific agrosystem benefits. The covercrop, catch crop, green manure and fodder uses were identified as possible targets for selection. Theobjective was to apply multi-criteria decision analysis to evaluate different species (Hordeum vulgareL., Secale cereale L., ×Triticosecale Whim, Sinapis alba L., Vicia sativa L.) and cultivars according to theirsuitability to be used as cover crops in each of the uses. A field trial with 20 cultivars of the five specieswas conducted in Central Spain during two seasons (October?April). Measurements of ground cover, cropbiomass, N uptake, N derived from the atmosphere, C/N, dietary fiber content and residue quality werecollected. Aggregation of these variables through utility functions allowed ranking species and cultivarsfor each usage. Grasses were the most suitable for the cover crop, catch crop and fodder uses, while thevetches were the best as green manures. The mustard attained high ranks as cover and catch crop the firstseason, but the second decayed due to low performance in cold winters. Mustard and vetches obtainedworse rankings than grasses as fodder. Hispanic was the most suitable barley cultivar as cover and catchcrop, and Albacete as fodder. The triticale Titania attained the highest rank as cover and catch crop andfodder. Vetches Aitana and BGE014897 showed good aptitudes as green manures and catch crops. Thisanalysis allowed comparison among species and cultivars and might provide relevant information forcover crops selection and management.

Spatial multicriteria decision analysis to potential beekeeping assessment. Case study: Montesinho Natural Park (Portugal)

The Multicriteria decision analysis is a tool to support decision-making in the identification of areas with the utmost beekeeping potential. This paper design a GIS multicriteria approach to assess the beekeeping potential. The development of a conceptual model structure requires the participation of stakeholders and experts in that process. The spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) allowed defining the potential beekeeping map. The resulting maps can be used by the beekeepers associations to easily select the more suitable areas for the apiaries location or relocation and avoid prohibited areas by legal requirements.