Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

A free weekly iron-folic acid supplementation and regular deworming program is associated with improved hemoglobin and iron status indicators in Vietnamese women

Background Anemia due to iron deficiency is recognized as one of the major nutritional deficiencies in women and children in developing countries. Daily iron supplementation for pregnant women is recommended in many countries although there are few reports of these programs working efficiently or effectively. Weekly iron-folic acid supplementation (WIFS) and regular deworming treatment is recommended for non-pregnant women living in areas with high rates of anemia. Following a baseline survey to assess the prevalence of anemia, iron deficiency and soil transmitted helminth infections, we implemented a program to make WIFS and regular deworming treatment freely and universally available for all women of reproductive age in two districts of a province in northern Vietnam over a 12 month period. The impact of the program at the population level was assessed in terms of: i) change in mean hemoglobin and iron status indicators, and ii) change in the prevalence of anemia, iron deficiency and hookworm infections. Method Distribution of WIFS and deworming were integrated with routine health services and made available to 52,000 women. Demographic data and blood and stool samples were collected in baseline, and three and 12-month post-implementation surveys using a population-based, stratified multi-stage cluster sampling design. Results The mean Hb increased by 9.6 g/L (95% CI, 5.7, 13.5, p < 0.001) during the study period. Anemia (Hb<120 g/L) was present in 131/349 (37.5%, 95% CI 31.3, 44.8) subjects at baseline, and in 70/363 (19.3%, 95% CI 14.0, 24.6) after twelve months. Iron deficiency reduced from 75/329 (22.8%, 95% CI 16.9, 28.6) to 33/353 (9.3%, 95% CI 5.7, 13.0) by the 12-mnth survey, and hookworm infection from 279/366 (76.2%,, 95% CI 68.6, 83.8) to 66/287 (23.0%, 95% CI 17.5, 28.5) over the same period. Conclusion A free, universal WIFS program with regular deworming was associated with reduced prevalence and severity of anemia, iron deficiency and ho

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Subjective and Objective Indicators of Recovery in Severe Mental Illness: a Cross-Sectional Study

Background: This study aimed to determine whether subjective dimensions of recovery such as empowerment are associated with self-report of more objective indicators such as level of participation in the community and income from employment. A secondary aim was to investigate the extent to which diagnosis or other consumer characteristics mediated any relationship between these variables. Methods: The Community Integration Measure, the Empowerment Scale, the Recovery Assessment Scale, and the Camberwell Assessment of Needs Short Appraisal Schedule were administered to a convenience sample of 161 consumers with severe mental illness. Results: The majority of participants had a primary diagnosis of schizophreniform, anxiety/depression or bipolar affective disorder. The Empowerment Scale was quite strongly correlated with the Recovery Assessment Scale and the Community Integration Measure. Participants with a diagnosis of bipolar affective disorder had signifi cantly higher recovery and empowerment scores than participants with schizophrenia or depression. Both empowerment and recovery scores were significantly higher for people engaged in paid employment than for those receiving social security benefits. Conclusions: The measurement of subjective dimensions of recovery such as empowerment has validity in evaluation of global recovery for people with severe mental illness. A diagnosis of bipolar disorder is associated with higher scores on subjective and objective indicators of recovery.

The effect of various temperature indicators on different mortality categories in a subtropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between temperature and mortality has been explored for decades and many temperature indicators have been applied separately. However, few data are available to show how the effects of different temperature indicators on different mortality categories, particularly in a typical subtropical climate. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between various temperature indicators and different mortality categories in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004. METHODS: We applied two methods to assess the threshold and temperature indicator for each age and death groups: mean temperature and the threshold assessed from all cause mortality was used for all mortality categories; the specific temperature indicator and the threshold for each mortality category were identified separately according to the minimisation of AIC. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear model to identify effect estimates in mortality with one degree of temperature increase (or decrease) above (or below) the threshold on current days and lagged effects using both methods. RESULTS: Akaike's Information Criterion was minimized when mean temperature was used for all non-external deaths and deaths from 75 to 84 years; when minimum temperature was used for deaths from 0 to 64 years, 65-74 years, ≥ 85 years, and from the respiratory diseases; when maximum temperature was used for deaths from cardiovascular diseases. The effect estimates using certain temperature indicators were similar as mean temperature both for current day and lag effects. CONCLUSION: Different age groups and death categories were sensitive to different temperature indicators. However, the effect estimates from certain temperature indicators did not significantly differ from those of mean temperature.

Determining indicators of transportation disadvantage for establishing knowledge-based environments

Although, transportation disadvantage or imbalance between travel needs and supply of transportation system is a great harm to knowledge based environments, quantification and objectively measuring the state of transportation disadvantaged remain to be a great challenge for researcher due to its ambiguity. This poses questions of whether the current indicators are accurately linked with transportation disadvantages and the effectiveness of the current policies. Using current indicators of transportation disadvantages, the state of transportation disadvantage is often exaggerated due to limited afford has been put forward to provide clear assessment on the existed relationship between transportation disadvantage indicators with travel performance or capability. This paper proposes a structural equation model of transportation disadvantage using household variables gained from the 2006-2008 South-East Queensland Travel Survey (SEQTS). The underlying relationships between social economics and demographic characteristics of household with travel performance are modelled using a latent variable approach. The final model has been able to fit the data gathered from SEQTS and explained established links between key household factors with travel capability and determined key indicator of travel capability. The model recognises that travel capability is directly influenced by household factors; vehicle ratio, license possession, retirees and pensioners.

An examination of the microscopic simulation models to identify traffic safety indicators

Evaluating the safety of different traffic facilities is a complex and crucial task. Microscopic simulation models have been widely used for traffic management but have been largely neglected in traffic safety studies. Micro simulation to study safety is more ethical and accessible than the traditional safety studies, which only assess historical crash data. However, current microscopic models are unable to mimic unsafe driver behavior, as they are based on presumptions of safe driver behavior. This highlights the need for a critical examination of the current microscopic models to determine which components and parameters have an effect on safety indicator reproduction. The question then arises whether these safety indicators are valid indicators of traffic safety. The safety indicators were therefore selected and tested for straight motorway segments in Brisbane, Australia. This test examined the capability of a micro-simulation model and presents a better understanding of micro-simulation models and how such models, in particular car following models can be enriched to present more accurate safety indicators.

A review of road traffic noise indicators and their correlation with the LA10(18hour)

This paper outlines a study to determine the correlation between the LA10(18hour) and other road traffic noise indicators. It is based on a database comprising of 404 measurement locations including 947 individual days of valid noise measurements across numerous circumstances taken between November 2001 and November 2007. This paper firstly discusses the need and constraints on the indicators and their nature of matching a suitable indicator to the various road traffic noise dynamical characteristics. The paper then presents a statistical analysis of the road traffic noise monitoring data, correlating various indicators with the LA10(18hour) statistical indicator and provides a comprehensive table of linear correlations. There is an extended analysis on relationships across the night time period. The paper concludes with a discussion on the findings.

designing creative clusters : some indicators

This paper explores how the design of creative clusters as a key strategy in promoting the urban creative economy has played out in Shanghai. Creative Clusters in Europe and North America context have emerged ‘organically’. They developed spontaneously in those cities which went through a period of post-industrial decline. Creative Industries grew up in these cities as part of a new urban economy in the wake of old manufacturing industries. Artists and creative entrepreneurs moved into vacant warehouses and factories and began the trend of ‘creative clusters’. Such clusters facilitate the transfer of tacit knowledge through informal learning, the efficient sourcing of skills and information, competition, collaboration and learning, inter-cluster trading and networking. This new urban phenomenon was soon targeted by local economic development policy in charge of re-generating and re-structuralizing industrial activities in cities. Rising interest from real estate and local economic development has led to more and more planned creative clusters. In the aim of catching up with the world’s creative cities, Shanghai has planned over 100 creative clusters since 2005. Along with these officially designed creative clusters, there are organically emerged creative clusters that are much smaller in scale and much more informal in terms of the management. And they emerged originally in old residential areas just outside the CBD and expand to include French concession the most sort after residential area at the edge of CBD. More recently, office buildings within CBD are made available for creative usages. From fringe to CBD, these organic creative clusters provide crucial evidences for the design of creative clusters. This paper will be organized in 2 parts. In the first part, I will present a case study of 8 ‘official’ clusters (title granted by local govenrment) in Shanghai through which I am hoping to develop some key indicators of the success/failure of creative clusters as well as link them with their physical, social and operational efficacies. In the second part, a variety of ‘alternative’ clusters (organicly formed clusters most of which are not recongnized by the government) supplies with us the possibilities of rethinking the so-called ‘cluster development strategy’ in terms of what kind of spaces are appropriate for use by clusters? Who should manage them and in what format? And ultimately what are their relationship with the rest of the city should be defined?

Safety culture research in the construction sector : interlocked projects in safety competency and safety effectiveness indicators

Safety culture is a concept that has long been accepted in high risk industries such as aviation, nuclear industries and mining, however, considerable research is now being undertaken within the construction sector, with varying levels of success. The current paper discusses three recent interlocked projects that have had some success in the Australian construction industry. The first project examined the development and implementation of a safety competency framework targeted at safety critical positions across first tier construction organisations. Combining qualitative and quantitative methods, the project: developed a matrix of safety critical positions (n=11) and safety managements tasks (SMTs; n=39); mapped the process steps for their acquisition and ongoing development; detailed the knowledge, skills and behaviours required for all SMTs; and outlined organisational cultural outcomes that could be anticipated in a successful implementation of the framework. The second project extended research on safety competency and leadership to develop behavioural guidelines for leaders to drive safety culture change down to second tier companies. This was designed to assist smaller construction companies to customise their own competency framework and develop implementation guidelines that match their aspirations and resources. The third interlocked project explored the use of safety effectiveness indicators (SEIs) as an industry-relevant assessment tool for reducing risk on construction sites. With direct linkages to safety competencies and safety management tasks, the SEIs are the next step towards an integrated safety cultural approach to safety and extend the concept of positive performance indicators (PPIs) by providing a valid, reliable, and user friendly measurement platform. Taken together, the results of the interlocked projects suggest that safety culture research has many potential benefits for the construction industry, particularly when research is conducted in partnership with industry stakeholders. Suggestions are made for future research, including further application and testing of the safety competency framework and aligning SEIs across construction projects of varying size, location and design.

A Delphi study on the critical sustainability criteria and indicators for Australian road infrastructure projects

With increasing media exposure and evidence of environmental impacts, it is increasingly recognized that incorporating sustainability principles in construction works is both crucial and beneficial. However a recent survey reveals that among stakeholders of infrastructure projects such as roads, there is no common understanding on what constitutes sustainability in real-life projects. Sustainability has been interpreted widely and differently and as a result, sustainability outcomes are not tangible at the project level or often neglected. Under such conditions, policies and strategies on sustainability remain largely ideological and cannot be sufficiently reflected in the actual project delivery. The major difficulty of this sustainability pursuit lies in the lack of consensus among the experts on sustainability criteria and indicators. To move ahead, these criteria and indicators are to be agreed upon. This paper reviews the sustainable infrastructure development, its criteria and indicators, focusing on road infrastructure context. It goes on to introduce a Delphi study, an integral part of a QUT research, aimed at identifying critical sustainability criteria and indicators for Australian road infrastructure projects. It paves the way for further identification of solutions for each critical indicator at a subsequent stage. The criteria, indicators and solutions will be encapsulated into a decision making framework for the enhancement of sustainability deliverables. By doing so, the research will promote more integrated thinking of and consistent approaches to the sustainability agenda in road and highway infrastructure projects in Australia.

A longitudinal assessment of chronic wound fluid to detect biochemical indicators of healing

Chronic venous leg ulcers are a detrimental health issue plaguing our society, resulting in long term pain, immobility and decreased quality of life for a large proportion of sufferers. The frequency of these chronic wounds has led current research to focus on the wound environment to provide important information regarding the prolonged, fluctuated or static healing patterns of these wounds. Disruption to the normal wound healing process results in release of multiple factors in the wound environment that could correlate to wound chronicity. These biochemical factors can often be detected through non-invasively sampling chronic wound fluid (CWF) from the site of injury. Of note, whilst there are numerous studies comparing acute and chronic wound fluids, there have not been any reports in the literature employing a longitudinal study in order to track biochemical changes in wound fluid as patients transition from a non-healing to healed state. Initially the objective of this study was to identify biochemical changes in CWF associated with wound healing using a proteomic approach. The proteomic approach incorporated a multi-dimensional liquid chromatography fractionation technique coupled with mass spectrometry (MS) to enable identification of proteins present in lower concentrations in CWF. Not surprisingly, many of the proteins identified in wound fluid were acute phase proteins normally expressed during the inflammatory phase of healing. However, the number of proteins positively identified by MS was quite low. This was attributed to the diverse range in concentration of protein species in CWF making it challenging to detect the diagnostically relevant low molecular weight proteins. In view of this, SELDI-TOF MS was also explored as a means to target low molecular weight proteins in sequential patient CWF samples during the course of healing. Unfortunately, the results generated did not yield any peaks of interest that were altered as wounds transitioned to a healed state. During the course of proteomic assessment of CWF, it became evident that a fraction of non-proteinaceous compounds strongly absorbed at 280 nm. Subsequent analyses confirmed that most of these compounds were in fact part of the purine catabolic pathway, possessing distinctive aromatic rings and which results in high absorbance at 254 nm. The accumulation of these purinogenic compounds in CWF suggests that the wound bed is poorly oxygenated resulting in a switch to anaerobic metabolism and consequently ATP breakdown. In addition, the presence of the terminal purine catabolite, uric acid (UA), indicates that the enzyme xanthine oxidoreductase (XOR) catalyses the reaction of hypoxanthine to xanthine and finally to UA. More importantly, the studies provide evidence for the first time of the exogenous presence of XOR in CWF. XOR is the only enzyme in humans capable of catalysing the production of UA in conjunction with a burst of the highly reactive superoxide radical and other oxidants like H2O2. Excessive release of these free radicals in the wound environment can cause cellular damage disrupting the normal wound healing process. In view of this, a sensitive and specific assay was established for monitoring low concentrations of these catabolites in CWF. This procedure involved combining high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with tandem mass spectrometry and multiple reaction monitoring (MRM). This application was selective, using specific MRM transitions and HPLC separations for each analyte, making it ideal for the detection and quantitation of purine catabolites in CWF. The results demonstrated that elevated levels of UA were detected in wound fluid obtained from patients with clinically worse ulcers. This suggests that XOR is active in the wound site generating significant amounts of reactive oxygen species (ROS). In addition, analysis of the amount of purine precursors in wound fluid revealed elevated levels of purine precursors in wound fluid from patients with less severe ulcers. Taken together, the results generated in this thesis suggest that monitoring changes of purine catabolites in CWF is likely to provide valuable information regarding the healing patterns of chronic venous leg ulcers. XOR catalysis of purine precursors not only provides a method for monitoring the onset, prognosis and progress of chronic venous leg ulcers, but also provides a potential therapeutic target by inhibiting XOR, thus blocking UA and ROS production. Targeting a combination of these purinogenic compounds and XOR could lead to the development of novel point of care diagnostic tests. Therefore, further investigation of these processes during wound healing will be worthwhile and may assist in elucidating the pathogenesis of this disease state, which in turn may lead to the development of new diagnostics and therapies that target these processes.

Workforce indicators of health literacy

The concept of health literacy has evolved over the last forty years from an individual, literacy driven focus in clinical settings to one associated with a contemporary approach to health promotion. The World Health Organization has defined health literacy as ‘the cognitive and social skills which determine the motivation and ability of individuals to gain access to, understand and use information in ways which promote and maintain good health’ (World Health Organization, 1998, p. 10). The conceptual evolution of health literacy has seen a shift beyond a functional orientation to also recognise cognitive, behavioural and environmental influences. This more comprehensive view of health literacy acknowledges factors like efficacy, motivation, self-efficacy, autonomy, social support and empowerment. A health literate workforce could present benefits for the employee and employer...

Interlocked projects in safety competency and safety effectiveness indicators in the construction sector

Safety culture is a concept that has long been accepted in high risk industries such as aviation, nuclear industries and mining, however, considerable research is now also being undertaken within the construction sector. This paper discusses three recent interlocked projects undertaken in the Australian construction industry. The first project examined the development and implementation of a safety competency framework targeted at safety critical positions (SCP's) across first tier construction organisations. Combining qualitative and quantitative methods, the project: developed a matrix of SCP's (n=11) and safety management tasks (SMTs; n=39); mapped the process steps for their acquisition and development; detailed the knowledge, skills and behaviours required for all SMTs; and outlined potential organisational cultural outcomes from a successful implementation of the framework. The second project extended this research to develop behavioural guidelines for leaders to drive safety culture change down to second tier companies and to assist them to customise their own competency framework and implementation guidelines to match their aspirations and resources. The third interlocked project explored the use of safety effectiveness indicators (SEIs) as an industry-relevant assessment tool for reducing risk on construction sites. With direct linkages to safety competencies and SMT's, the SEIs are the next step towards an integrated safety cultural approach to safety and extend the concept of positive performance indicators (PPIs) by providing a valid, reliable, and user friendly measurement platform. Taken together, the results of the interlocked projects suggest that industry engaged collaborative safety culture research has many potential benefits for the construction industry.