Charge distribution in and electric moments of some aliphatic acids

Using the treatment of Smith et al., charge distribution in and consequently the dipole moments of several aliphatic acids have been evaluated. The electric moments of chloro (2·86 D), bromo (2·90 D), iodo (2·06 D) and trichloro (3·00 D) acetic acids have been measured in dioxan solution at 35°. The experimental values are compared with those calculated theoretically and discussed in terms of the various possible structures.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

The Value of Being on the Net- the effects of Web sites of companies on consumer decision making

The unique characteristics of marketspace in combination with the fast growing number of consumers interested in e-commerce have created new research areas of interest to both marketing and consumer behaviour researchers. Consumer behaviour researchers interested in the decision making processes of consumers have two new sets of questions to answer. The first set of questions is related to how useful theories developed for a marketplace are in a marketspace context. Cyber auctions, Internet communities and the possibilities for consumers to establish dialogues not only with companies but also with other consumers make marketspace unique. The effects of these distinctive characteristics on the behaviour of consumers have not been systematically analysed and therefore constitute the second set of questions which have to be studied. Most companies feel that they have to be online even though the effects of being on the Net are not unambiguously positive. The relevance of the relationship marketing paradigm in a marketspace context have to be studied. The relationship enhancement effects of websites from the customers’ point of view are therefore emphasized in this research paper. Representatives of the Net-generation were analysed and the results show that companies should develop marketspace strategies while Net presence has a value-added effect on consumers. The results indicate that the decision making processes of the consumers are also changing as a result of the progress of marketspace

Ecological computer programs: the importance of being friendly

A discussion is presented on the topic of statistical data analysis in the field of ecology, emphasizing the importance of computer programmes being user friendly for the ecologist. Particular reference is given to TWINSPAN, CANOCO and PATN and the applications of these programmes to tropical fisheries and coastal zone management.

Higher Moments of Net Proton Multiplicity Distributions at RHIC

200 GeV corresponding to baryon chemical potentials (mu(B)) between 200 and 20 MeV. Our measurements of the products kappa sigma(2) and S sigma, which can be related to theoretical calculations sensitive to baryon number susceptibilities and long-range correlations, are constant as functions of collision centrality. We compare these products with results from lattice QCD and various models without a critical point and study the root s(NN) dependence of kappa sigma(2). From the measurements at the three beam energies, we find no evidence for a critical point in the QCD phase diagram for mu(B) below 200 MeV.

Are There Any Lessons of History?: The English School and the Activity of Being an Historian

Bain, William, 'Are There Any Lessons of History?: The English School and the Activity of Being an Historian', International Politics (2007) 44(5) pp.513-530 RAE2008

Estimating stochastic volatility diffusion using conditional moments of integrated volatility

We exploit the distributional information contained in high-frequency intraday data in constructing a simple conditional moment estimator for stochastic volatility diffusions. The estimator is based on the analytical solutions of the first two conditional moments for the latent integrated volatility, the realization of which is effectively approximated by the sum of the squared high-frequency increments of the process. Our simulation evidence indicates that the resulting GMM estimator is highly reliable and accurate. Our empirical implementation based on high-frequency five-minute foreign exchange returns suggests the presence of multiple latent stochastic volatility factors and possible jumps. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Playback Theatre: the art of being oneself. A tool for empowerment and real change for individuals and communities

This article presents the application of a theatrical technique—Playback Theatre, which was developed in the United States during the 1970s—to social intervention, as a narrative and listening space that confers value and dignity upon the person and the unique and distinct individual experiences that facilitate their social and relational integration. This art of being oneself, as the author states, uses the oral tradition and spontaneous and creative communication of psychodrama and combines them with theatrical expression. This technique has been shown to be pertinent to both community social work and support groups for persons in problematic situations. The aim of this is to celebrate some specific moment of their lives, as individuals or as a community, and to define strategies for improving living conditions or resolving or alleviating conflicts. It is also used to assess the achievements of the proposed objectives, to strengthen the motivation to change and to transform existing relationships into collaborative ones. This is possible not only owing to the participation of persons, but also to the assumption of different roles that can permit the overcoming of certain traumatic events.In addition to support groups, it is used for the training and supervision of social work professionals. The theatrical technique in question allows them to assume roles as diverse as narrator, audience or actor, whether simultaneously or successively. Taking the role of «performer» or guide to the theatrical action requires prior preparation in order for the group of participants to be able to pool their individualities and their emotions and reflect on them. The participatory methodology that Playback Theatre proposes is important in community social work and is posed in a new and transformative key.