Contribuição para o estudo do despacho técnico-económico no sistema electroprodutor em Moçambique

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Energias Renováveis – Conversão Eléctrica e Utilização Sustentáveis

Previsão de cheias em Barcelos

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

NUTRIENT RECOMMENDATION MODEL FOR CARROT CROP – FERTICALC CARROT

ABSTRACT The literature on fertilization for carrot growing usually recommends nutrient application rates for yield expectations lower than the yields currently obtained. Moreover, the recommendation only considers the results of soil chemical analysis and does not include effects such as crop residues or variations in yield levels. The aim of this study was to propose a fertilizer recommendation system for carrot cultivation (FERTICALC Carrot) which includes consideration of the nutrient supply by crop residues, variation in intended yield, soil chemical properties, and the growing season (winter or summer). To obtain the data necessary for modeling nutritional requirements, 210 carrot production stands were sampled in the region of Alto Paranaíba, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The dry matter content of the roots, the coefficient of biological utilization of nutrients in the roots, and the nutrient harvest index for summer and winter crops were determined for these samples. To model the nutrient supply by the soil, the literature was surveyed in regard to this theme. A modeling system was developed for recommendation of macronutrients and B. For cationic micronutrients, the system only reports crop nutrient export and extraction. The FERTICALC which was developed proved to be efficient for fertilizer recommendation for carrot cultivation. Advantages in relation to official fertilizer recommendation tables are continuous variation of nutrient application rates in accordance with soil properties and in accordance with data regarding the extraction efficiency of modern, higher yielding cultivars.

Influencia de la información territorial en la simulación hidrológica. Aplicación a la cuenca de Canalda (El Solsonés)

La modelización hidrológica de cuencas requiere datos del territorio para hacer una correcta parametrización del modelo. La escala de entrada (grado de generalización) de los datos influirá en los cálculos de la escorrentía superficial realizados en la simulación. HEC-1 es un modelo empírico de simulación hidrológica de cuencas de amplia difusión. En la actualidad, se encuentra disponible conjuntamente con el programa informático WMS (Watershed Modeling System), que dispone de diferentes herramientas que facilitan el procesamiento de los datos del territorio. El modelo HEC-1 se ha aplicado a la cuenca de Canalda de 66 km2 (El Solsonés, Lleida) para conocer la influencia de generalizar los parámetros de entrada (usos y tipos de suelos y división en subcuencas) en el cálculo de la escorrentía superficial. Para aplicar el modelo ha sido necesario hacer un reconocimiento y estudio de los suelos de la cuenca, con énfasis especial en las propiedades físicas, la distribución y extensión de los suelos, obteniendo el mapa de suelos de la cuenca a escala 1:50.000. El proceso de generalización de los datos de entrada se ha efectuado con la escala base 1:50.000, realizando otras simulaciones a las escalas 1:100.000 y 1:200.000. En las simulaciones practicadas se obseva que el grado de generalización de los datos de entrada tiene efecto en el hidrograma de salida de la cuenca; al generalizar los datos a las escalas mencionadas se aprecia un retardo en el hidrograma y una reducción de la aportación total y del caudal punta.

Horizontal Grid Size Selection and its Influence on Mesoscale Model Simulations

The use of two-dimensional spectral analysis applied to terrain heights in order to determine characteristic terrain spatial scales and its subsequent use for the objective definition of an adequate grid size required to resolve terrain forcing are presented in this paper. In order to illustrate the influence of grid size, atmospheric flow in a complex terrain area of the Spanish east coast is simulated by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical model using different horizontal grid resolutions. In this area, a grid size of 2 km is required to account for 95% of terrain variance. Comparison among results of the different simulations shows that, although the main wind behavior does not change dramatically, some small-scale features appear when using a resolution of 2 km or finer. Horizontal flow pattern differences are significant both in the nighttime, when terrain forcing is more relevant, and in the daytime, when thermal forcing is dominant. Vertical structures also are investigated, and results show that vertical advection is influenced highly by the horizontal grid size during the daytime period. The turbulent kinetic energy and potential temperature vertical cross sections show substantial differences in the structure of the planetary boundary layer for each model configuration

GAMS MINLP Solver comparisons and some improvements to the AlphaECP algorithm

I doktorsavhandlingen undersöks förmågan att lösa hos ett antal lösare för optimeringsproblem och ett antal svårigheter med att göra en rättvis lösarjämförelse avslöjas. Dessutom framläggs några förbättringar som utförts på en av lösarna som heter GAMS/AlphaECP. Optimering innebär, i det här sammanhanget, att finna den bästa möjliga lösningen på ett problem. Den undersökta klassen av problem kan karaktäriseras som svårlöst och förekommer inom ett flertal industriområden. Målet har varit att undersöka om det finns en lösare som är universellt snabbare och hittar lösningar med högre kvalitet än någon av de andra lösarna. Det kommersiella optimeringssystemet GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) och omfattande problembibliotek har använts för att jämföra lösare. Förbättringarna som presenterats har utförts på GAMS/AlphaECP lösaren som baserar sig på skärplansmetoden Extended Cutting Plane (ECP). ECP-metoden har utvecklats främst av professor Tapio Westerlund på Anläggnings- och systemteknik vid Åbo Akademi.

Association between NOx exposure and deaths caused by respiratory diseases in a medium-sized Brazilian city

Exposure to nitrogen oxides (NOx) emitted by burning fossil fuels has been associated with respiratory diseases. We aimed to estimate the effects of NOx exposure on mortality owing to respiratory diseases in residents of Taubaté, São Paulo, Brazil, of all ages and both sexes. This time-series ecological study from August 1, 2011 to July 31, 2012 used information on deaths caused by respiratory diseases obtained from the Health Department of Taubaté. Estimated daily levels of pollutants (NOx, particulate matter, ozone, carbon monoxide) were obtained from the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. These environmental variables were used to adjust the multipollutant model for apparent temperature. To estimate association between hospitalizations owing to asthma and air pollutants, generalized additive Poisson regression models were developed, with lags as much as 5 days. There were 385 deaths with a daily mean (±SD) of 1.05±1.03 (range: 0-5). Exposure to NOx was significantly associated with mortality owing to respiratory diseases: relative risk (RR)=1.035 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.008-1.063) for lag 2, RR=1.064 (95%CI: 1.017-1.112) lag 3, RR=1.055 (95%CI: 1.025-1.085) lag 4, and RR=1.042 (95%CI: 1.010-1.076) lag 5. A 3 µg/m3 reduction in NOx concentration resulted in a decrease of 10-18 percentage points in risk of death caused by respiratory diseases. Even at NOx concentrations below the acceptable standard, there is association with deaths caused by respiratory diseases.

An artificial neural network model for prediction of quality characteristics of apples during convective dehydration

In this study, the effects of hot-air drying conditions on color, water holding capacity, and total phenolic content of dried apple were investigated using artificial neural network as an intelligent modeling system. After that, a genetic algorithm was used to optimize the drying conditions. Apples were dried at different temperatures (40, 60, and 80 °C) and at three air flow-rates (0.5, 1, and 1.5 m/s). Applying the leave-one-out cross validation methodology, simulated and experimental data were in good agreement presenting an error < 2.4 %. Quality index optimal values were found at 62.9 °C and 1.0 m/s using genetic algorithm.

Modélisation procédurale par composants

Le réalisme des images en infographie exige de créer des objets (ou des scènes) de plus en plus complexes, ce qui entraîne des coûts considérables. La modélisation procédurale peut aider à automatiser le processus de création, à simplifier le processus de modification ou à générer de multiples variantes d'une instance d'objet. Cependant même si plusieurs méthodes procédurales existent, aucune méthode unique permet de créer tous les types d'objets complexes, dont en particulier un édifice complet. Les travaux réalisés dans le cadre de cette thèse proposent deux solutions au problème de la modélisation procédurale: une solution au niveau de la géométrie de base, et l’autre sous forme d'un système général adapté à la modélisation des objets complexes. Premièrement, nous présentons le bloc, une nouvelle primitive de modélisation simple et générale, basée sur une forme cubique généralisée. Les blocs sont disposés et connectés entre eux pour constituer la forme de base des objets, à partir de laquelle est extrait un maillage de contrôle pouvant produire des arêtes lisses et vives. La nature volumétrique des blocs permet une spécification simple de la topologie, ainsi que le support des opérations de CSG entre les blocs. La paramétrisation de la surface, héritée des faces des blocs, fournit un soutien pour les textures et les fonctions de déplacements afin d'appliquer des détails de surface. Une variété d'exemples illustrent la généralité des blocs dans des contextes de modélisation à la fois interactive et procédurale. Deuxièmement, nous présentons un nouveau système de modélisation procédurale qui unifie diverses techniques dans un cadre commun. Notre système repose sur le concept de composants pour définir spatialement et sémantiquement divers éléments. À travers une série de déclarations successives exécutées sur un sous-ensemble de composants obtenus à l'aide de requêtes, nous créons un arbre de composants définissant ultimement un objet dont la géométrie est générée à l'aide des blocs. Nous avons appliqué notre concept de modélisation par composants à la génération d'édifices complets, avec intérieurs et extérieurs cohérents. Ce nouveau système s'avère général et bien adapté pour le partionnement des espaces, l'insertion d'ouvertures (portes et fenêtres), l'intégration d'escaliers, la décoration de façades et de murs, l'agencement de meubles, et diverses autres opérations nécessaires lors de la construction d'un édifice complet.

Computational models for the prediction of severe thunderstorms over east indian region

Thunderstorm is one of the most spectacular weather phenomena in the atmosphere. Many parts over the Indian region experience thunderstorms at higher frequency during pre-monsoon months (March- May), when the atmosphere is highly unstable because of high temperatures prevailing at lower levels. Most dominant feature of the weather during the pre-monsoon season over the eastern Indo-Gangetic plain and northeast India is the outburst of severe local convective storms, commonly known as ‘Nor’wester’ or ‘Kalbaishakhi’. The severe thunderstorms associated with thunder, squall line, lightning and hail cause extensive losses in agriculture, damage to structure and also loss of life. The casualty due to lightning associated with thunderstorms in this region is the highest in the world. The highest numbers of aviation hazards are reported during occurrence of these thunderstorms. In India, 72% of tornadoes are associated with this thunderstorm.

Administración en la cadena de suministro y su relación con el desempeño de las PYME del sector agroindustrial

En la actualidad las organizaciones están en búsqueda de una mejora continua, esto lleva a que las empresas hagan una revisión de estrategias que permitan alcanzar una posición de líderes en los diferentes sectores en los que se desempeñan. Una de las estrategias para lograr un alto posicionamiento en las nuevas empresas es la adecuada gestión que hacen de la cadena de suministro. El sector agroindustrial tiene un amplia cadena de suministro desde la obtención de materias primas hasta la llegada al cliente final, por su gran magnitud requiere de una adecuada administración de procesos que permitan ser eficaces y eficientes para alcanzar logros propuestos, aprovechar los recursos limitados con los que cuentan para su cumplimiento y, por último, la capacidad propia para la transformación de sus recursos. Para lograr que las empresas obtengan ventajas competitivas, es necesario que los distintos eslabones de la cadena de suministros cuenten con una capacidad de interacción que les permita, tanto agilizar como asegurar el éxito durante la incorporación de los nuevos productos en el mercado. Por medio de esta investigación se busca esclarecer y analizar la importancia de la administración en la cadena de suministro y la relación con el desempeño, basándose en las Pymes del sector agroindustrial. La intención es evaluar la información de diversos autores quienes han hablado de la relación que existe entre la cadena de suministro y su desempeño, teniendo en cuenta variables como el sector agroindustrial y las Pymes.

Predictability and uncertainty in a regional climate model

The evaluation of the quality and usefulness of climate modeling systems is dependent upon an assessment of both the limited predictability of the climate system and the uncertainties stemming from model formulation. In this study a methodology is presented that is suited to assess the performance of a regional climate model (RCM), based on its ability to represent the natural interannual variability on monthly and seasonal timescales. The methodology involves carrying out multiyear ensemble simulations (to assess the predictability bounds within which the model can be evaluated against observations) and multiyear sensitivity experiments using different model formulations (to assess the model uncertainty). As an example application, experiments driven by assimilated lateral boundary conditions and sea surface temperatures from the ECMWF Reanalysis Project (ERA-15, 1979–1993) were conducted. While the ensemble experiment demonstrates that the predictability of the regional climate varies strongly between different seasons and regions, being weakest during the summer and over continental regions, important sensitivities of the modeling system to parameterization choices are uncovered. In particular, compensating mechanisms related to the long-term representation of the water cycle are revealed, in which summer dry and hot conditions at the surface, resulting from insufficient evaporation, can persist despite insufficient net solar radiation (a result of unrealistic cloud-radiative feedbacks).

The influence of anthropogenic landscape changes on weather in south Florida

Using identical observed meteorology for lateral boundary conditions, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was integrated for July-August 1973 for south Florida. Three experiments were performed-one using the observed 1973 landscape, another the 1993 landscape, and the third the 1900 landscape, when the region was close to its natural state. Over the 2-month period, there was a 9% decrease in rainfall averaged over south Florida with the 1973 landscape and an 11% decrease with the 1993 landscape, as compared with the model results when the 1900 landscape is used. The limited available observations of trends in summer rainfall over this region are consistent with these trends.

Generation of a buoyancy-driven coastal current by an Antarctic Polynya

Descent and spreading of high salinity water generated by salt rejection during sea ice formation in an Antarctic coastal polynya is studied using a hydrostatic, primitive equation three-dimensional ocean model called the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modeling System (POLCOMS). The shape of the polynya is assumed to be a rectangle 100 km long and 30 km wide, and the salinity flux into the polynya at its surface is constant. The model has been run at high horizontal spatial resolution (500 m), and numerical simulations reveal a buoyancy-driven coastal current. The coastal current is a robust feature and appears in a range of simulations designed to investigate the influence of a sloping bottom, variable bottom drag, variable vertical turbulent diffusivities, higher salinity flux, and an offshore position of the polynya. It is shown that bottom drag is the main factor determining the current width. This coastal current has not been produced with other numerical models of polynyas, which may be because these models were run at coarser resolutions. The coastal current becomes unstable upstream of its front when the polynya is adjacent to the coast. When the polynya is situated offshore, an unstable current is produced from its outset owing to the capture of cyclonic eddies. The effect of a coastal protrusion and a canyon on the current motion is investigated. In particular, due to the convex shape of the coastal protrusion, the current sheds a dipolar eddy.

Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate

The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.