Temperature Dynamics Investigation At Small And Shallow Lakes Using Hydrodynamic Model

A three-dimensional time-dependent hydrodynamic and heat transport model of Lake Binaba, a shallow and small dam reservoir in Ghana, emphasizing the simulation of dynamics and thermal structure has been developed. Most numerical studies of temperature dynamics in reservoirs are based on one- or two-dimensional models. These models are not applicable for reservoirs characterized with complex flow pattern and unsteady heat exchange between the atmosphere and water surface. Continuity, momentum and temperature transport equations have been solved. Proper assignment of boundary conditions, especially surface heat fluxes, has been found crucial in simulating the lake’s hydrothermal dynamics. This model is based on the Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes equations, using a Boussinesq approach, with a standard k − ε turbulence closure to solve the flow field. The thermal model includes a heat source term, which takes into account the short wave radiation and also heat convection at the free surface, which is function of air temperatures, wind velocity and stability conditions of atmospheric boundary layer over the water surface. The governing equations of the model have been solved by OpenFOAM; an open source, freely available CFD toolbox. As its core, OpenFOAM has a set of efficient C++ modules that are used to build solvers. It uses collocated, polyhedral numerics that can be applied on unstructured meshes and can be easily extended to run in parallel. A new solver has been developed to solve the hydrothermal model of lake. The simulated temperature was compared against a 15 days field data set. Simulated and measured temperature profiles in the probe locations show reasonable agreement. The model might be able to compute total heat storage of water bodies to estimate evaporation from water surface.

Análise de linguagens de modelagem de processos de um modelo de referência na cadeia de suprimentos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise da fragilidade ambiental em área urbana: o caso da bacia hidrográfica do Córrego do Castelo, Bauru (SP)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Aplicação da gestão de processos em uma universidade pública do estado de São Paulo

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

A aplicação da abordagem do Tecnógeno na identificação e classificação dos terrenos e depósitos tecnogênicos no ambiente urbano de Guarapuava-PR

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

Applicabilità degli idrogrammi sintetici di progetto nello studio del comportamento idraulico dei corsi d'acqua naturali

Nella protezione idraulica del territorio la previsione e il controllo delle piene sono di fondamentale importanza. I territori sono sempre più antropizzati, pertanto la riduzione dei rischi connessi a eventi idrometeorologici estremi è di notevole interesse. La previsione delle piene è resa difficile dall’innumerevole quantità di variabili che intervengono nel processo della loro formazione. Nelle attività di progettazione e nella verifica di opere idrauliche la identificazione dell’idrogramma di progetto spesso riveste un’importanza fondamentale. Un idrogramma di progetto è definito come un’onda di piena, realmente osservata o sintetica, associata ad un determinato livello di rischio, quantificato usualmente in termini di tempo di ritorno. Con il presente lavoro si cerca di verificare la possibilità di applicazione una metodologia per la stima degli idrogrammi di progetto associati ad un determinato tempo di ritorno, recentemente proposta dalla letteratura scientifica (Maione et al., 2001, Una metodologia per la stima indiretta degli idrogrammi sintetici per il progetto di opere di difesa idraulica del territorio). Il lavoro è riferito al Fiume Secchia, un affluente importante del Po che scorre tra le provincie di Modena e Reggio Emilia.

Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Uso de las tierras, fisiografía y degradación, en el noreste del departamento Aluminé, Neuquén

La cuenca del río Kilca es uno de los principales sistemas hidrográficos de la región antecordillerana, ubicada en el centro de la provincia de Neuquén. En esta zona, de clima subhúmedo, el uso de suelo dominante es el de "veranada", que consiste en una de las tres etapas anuales de un tipo de ganadería trashumante, basado en el aprovechamiento forrajero de pastizales naturales. Dada la constitución fisiográfica de estos paisajes, existe en ellos una gran propensión al desarrollo de procesos geomorfológicos de erosión y remoción en masa. Los factores históricos vinculados a la evolución de la actividad ganadera en la región a ambos lados del eje cordillerano, han determinado desde fines del siglo XIX, modalidades de uso de suelo caracterizadas por el exceso estacional de la carga ganadera. Esta organización de la actividad implicó, no sólo un deterioro de las pasturas, sino además el desencadenamiento y aceleración de los procesos geomorfológicos. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la problemática actual, enfocando los procesos del medio biofísico, vinculados con las prácticas sociales. En este sentido, se describen y explican las condiciones fisiográficas, en términos del grado de inestabilidad y deterioro de las tierras.

Uso de las tierras, fisiografía y degradación, en el noreste del departamento Aluminé, Neuquén

La cuenca del río Kilca es uno de los principales sistemas hidrográficos de la región antecordillerana, ubicada en el centro de la provincia de Neuquén. En esta zona, de clima subhúmedo, el uso de suelo dominante es el de "veranada", que consiste en una de las tres etapas anuales de un tipo de ganadería trashumante, basado en el aprovechamiento forrajero de pastizales naturales. Dada la constitución fisiográfica de estos paisajes, existe en ellos una gran propensión al desarrollo de procesos geomorfológicos de erosión y remoción en masa. Los factores históricos vinculados a la evolución de la actividad ganadera en la región a ambos lados del eje cordillerano, han determinado desde fines del siglo XIX, modalidades de uso de suelo caracterizadas por el exceso estacional de la carga ganadera. Esta organización de la actividad implicó, no sólo un deterioro de las pasturas, sino además el desencadenamiento y aceleración de los procesos geomorfológicos. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la problemática actual, enfocando los procesos del medio biofísico, vinculados con las prácticas sociales. En este sentido, se describen y explican las condiciones fisiográficas, en términos del grado de inestabilidad y deterioro de las tierras.

Uso de las tierras, fisiografía y degradación, en el noreste del departamento Aluminé, Neuquén

La cuenca del río Kilca es uno de los principales sistemas hidrográficos de la región antecordillerana, ubicada en el centro de la provincia de Neuquén. En esta zona, de clima subhúmedo, el uso de suelo dominante es el de "veranada", que consiste en una de las tres etapas anuales de un tipo de ganadería trashumante, basado en el aprovechamiento forrajero de pastizales naturales. Dada la constitución fisiográfica de estos paisajes, existe en ellos una gran propensión al desarrollo de procesos geomorfológicos de erosión y remoción en masa. Los factores históricos vinculados a la evolución de la actividad ganadera en la región a ambos lados del eje cordillerano, han determinado desde fines del siglo XIX, modalidades de uso de suelo caracterizadas por el exceso estacional de la carga ganadera. Esta organización de la actividad implicó, no sólo un deterioro de las pasturas, sino además el desencadenamiento y aceleración de los procesos geomorfológicos. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la problemática actual, enfocando los procesos del medio biofísico, vinculados con las prácticas sociales. En este sentido, se describen y explican las condiciones fisiográficas, en términos del grado de inestabilidad y deterioro de las tierras.

Aplicação da dendrogeomorfologia na caracterização e datação de processos erosivos em voçorocas na região de Piracicaba, SP

O solo é um recurso natural essencial para os seres humanos. Porém, atualmente, as atividades humanas estão provocando a degradação do solo principalmente através da aceleração dos processos erosivos. Os estudos sobre estes processos ajudam na compreensão, interpretação e conservação do solo. Assim, este trabalho pretende estudar e datar os processos erosivos em uma voçoroca localizada na Estação Experimental de Tupi (Piracicaba SP) mediante o uso da dendrogeomorfologia. A dendrogeomorfologia é uma ciência relativamente recente que relaciona os anéis de crescimento das árvores com processos geomorfológicos permitindo a reconstrução cronológica e ocorrência dos eventos. A relevância deste estudo é conhecer o potencial desta ciência em áreas tropicais já que atualmente este tipo de estudos são escassos nestas áreas. Esta técnica foi aplicada utilizando raízes expostas de espécies do gênero Pinus sp. A datação do processo erosivo baseou-se nas mudanças no padrão de crescimento das raízes, tais como: a largura do anel, crescimento excêntrico, porcentagem do lenho tardio e densidade do lenho ocorridas após a sua exposição pelo processo erosivo. Através do estudo destas alterações determinou-se o primeiro ano de exposição da raiz e se calculou a taxa de erosão anual. Os resultados mostraram que a voçoroca está formada pela integração de dois sistemas de diferentes origens que confluem em um degrau de erosão. A abertura das voçorocas está influenciada pela presença de processos de \"piping\" na área, os quais também afetam a morfologia das raízes quando enterradas. A taxa de erosão vertical, segundo o método de GÄRTNER (2007), atingem valores entre 17,0 e 36,5 mm/ano quantificando o processo de afundamento da voçoroca; e a taxa de erosão horizontal, segundo o método de MALIK (2008), valores de 0,70 e 1,45 m/ano caracterizando o avanço longitudinal da mesma. Estes resultados são elevados se comparados com resultados obtidos em climas temperados por outros autores e similares aos publicados por BOVI (2013) na mesma área de estudo. Finalmente, a dendrogeomorfologia se corrobora como uma ferramenta de grande potencial em áreas tropicais. Os dados e informações obtidos podem se traduzir num banco de dados dendrogeomorfológicos e contribuir à expansão desta ciência no Brasil e áreas de ambientes tropicais.

Tree line shifts and disturbance events for sites studied in the Torneträsk area of sub-Arctic Sweden for the period 1800-2009

Aim: Models project that climate warming will cause the tree line to move to higher elevations in alpine areas and more northerly latitudes in Arctic environments. We aimed to document changes or stability of the tree line in a sub-Arctic model area at different temporal and spatial scales, and particularly to clarify the ambiguity that currently exists about tree line dynamics and their causes. Location: The study was conducted in the Tornetrask area in northern Sweden where climate warmed by 2.5 °C between 1913 and 2006. Mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) sets the alpine tree line. Methods: We used repeat photography, dendrochronological analysis, field observations along elevational transects and historical documents to study tree line dynamics. Results: Since 1912, only four out of eight tree line sites had advanced: on average the tree line had shifted 24 m upslope (+0.2 m/year assuming linear shifts). Maximum tree line advance was +145 m (+1.5 m/year in elevation and +2.7 m/year in actual distance), whereas maximum retreat was 120 m downslope. Counter-intuitively, tree line advance was most pronounced during the cooler late 1960s and 1970s. Tree establishment and tree line advance were significantly correlated with periods of low reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) population numbers. A decreased anthropozoogenic impact since the early 20th century was found to be the main factor shaping the current tree line ecotone and its dynamics. In addition, episodic disturbances by moth outbreaks and geomorphological processes resulted in descent and long-term stability of the tree line position, respectively. Main conclusions: In contrast to what is generally stated in the literature, this study shows that in a period of climate warming, disturbance may not only determine when tree line advance will occur but if tree line advance will occur at all. In the case of non-climatic climax tree lines, such as those in our study area, both climate-driven model projections of future tree line positions and the use of the tree line position for bioclimatic monitoring should be used with caution.

A deontic analysis of inter -organizational control requirements

This research focuses on the design and verification of inter-organizational controls. Instead of looking at a documentary procedure, which is the flow of documents and data among the parties, the research examines the underlying deontic purpose of the procedure, the so-called deontic process, and identifies control requirements to secure this purpose. The vision of the research is a formal theory for streamlining bureaucracy in business and government procedures. ^ Underpinning most inter-organizational procedures are deontic relations, which are about rights and obligations of the parties. When all parties trust each other, they are willing to fulfill their obligations and honor the counter parties’ rights; thus controls may not be needed. The challenge is in cases where trust may not be assumed. In these cases, the parties need to rely on explicit controls to reduce their exposure to the risk of opportunism. However, at present there is no analytic approach or technique to determine which controls are needed for a given contracting or governance situation. ^ The research proposes a formal method for deriving inter-organizational control requirements based on static analysis of deontic relations and dynamic analysis of deontic changes. The formal method will take a deontic process model of an inter-organizational transaction and certain domain knowledge as inputs to automatically generate control requirements that a documentary procedure needs to satisfy in order to limit fraud potentials. The deliverables of the research include a formal representation namely Deontic Petri Nets that combine multiple modal logics and Petri nets for modeling deontic processes, a set of control principles that represent an initial formal theory on the relationships between deontic processes and documentary procedures, and a working prototype that uses model checking technique to identify fraud potentials in a deontic process and generate control requirements to limit them. Fourteen scenarios of two well-known international payment procedures—cash in advance and documentary credit—have been used to test the prototype. The results showed that all control requirements stipulated in these procedures could be derived automatically.^

A Deontic Analysis of Inter-Organizational Control Requirements

This research focuses on the design and verification of inter-organizational controls. Instead of looking at a documentary procedure, which is the flow of documents and data among the parties, the research examines the underlying deontic purpose of the procedure, the so-called deontic process, and identifies control requirements to secure this purpose. The vision of the research is a formal theory for streamlining bureaucracy in business and government procedures. Underpinning most inter-organizational procedures are deontic relations, which are about rights and obligations of the parties. When all parties trust each other, they are willing to fulfill their obligations and honor the counter parties’ rights; thus controls may not be needed. The challenge is in cases where trust may not be assumed. In these cases, the parties need to rely on explicit controls to reduce their exposure to the risk of opportunism. However, at present there is no analytic approach or technique to determine which controls are needed for a given contracting or governance situation. The research proposes a formal method for deriving inter-organizational control requirements based on static analysis of deontic relations and dynamic analysis of deontic changes. The formal method will take a deontic process model of an inter-organizational transaction and certain domain knowledge as inputs to automatically generate control requirements that a documentary procedure needs to satisfy in order to limit fraud potentials. The deliverables of the research include a formal representation namely Deontic Petri Nets that combine multiple modal logics and Petri nets for modeling deontic processes, a set of control principles that represent an initial formal theory on the relationships between deontic processes and documentary procedures, and a working prototype that uses model checking technique to identify fraud potentials in a deontic process and generate control requirements to limit them. Fourteen scenarios of two well-known international payment procedures -- cash in advance and documentary credit -- have been used to test the prototype. The results showed that all control requirements stipulated in these procedures could be derived automatically.

Sediment budget and geomorphic process units of the Swedish Kärkevagge, link to ArcInfo E00 files

Geomorphic process units have been derived in order to allow quantification via GIS techniques at a catchment scale. Mass movement rates based on existing field measurements are employed in the budget calculations. In the Kärkevagge catchment, Northern Sweden, 80% of the area can be identified either as a source area for sediments or as a zone where sediments are deposited. The overall budget for the slopes beneath the rockwalls in the Kärkevagge is approximately 680 t/a whilst about 150 t a-1 are transported into the fluvial system.