Tavoitevarastoarvojen määrittäminen uusille tuotteille - case: päivittäistavarakaupan yritys

Tämän tutkielman tarkoituksena oli löytää keinoja uusien tuotteiden tavoitevarastoarvojen määrittämisen helpottamiseksi case-yrityksessä. Ongelma on seurausta siitä, ettei uusille tuotteille ole saatavissa kysyntädataa. Oikeelliset tavoitevarastoarvot on tärkeitä case-yritykselle hävikin minimoimisen ja erityisesti asiakastyytyväisyyden vuoksi. Tutkittavaa aihetta lähestyttiin päivittäistavarakaupan strategisten menestystekijöiden sekä varastonhallinnan kautta. Teoriaosuuden pohjalta toteutettiin empiirinen osio, jossa etsittiin case-yrityksen kahden tuoteryhmän kysyntää selittäviä tekijöitä paneeliregression avulla. Ensin kuitenkin tutkittiin tuoteryhmien yleistä kysynnän rakennetta erilaisten kysyntäkuvaajien sekä korrelaatiomatriisien avulla. Tavoitevarastoarvoon eniten vaikuttava tekijä on kysyntä. Brändi ja hinta muodostuivat puolestaan vahvimmiksi kysyntää määrittäviksi muuttujiksi. Kysyntää arvioitaessa muut sitä nostavat muuttujat tulee aina miettiä tapauskohtaisesti. Mehukeitoilla kysyntää nostivat eniten vahva brändi ja suuri pakkauskoko. Juustoraasteilla puolestaan alhainen hinta ja pieni pakkauskoko olivat keskeisimmät myyntiin vaikuttavat tekijät. Tuoteryhmien muut kysyntää nostavat ominaisuudet olivat samoja, kuin tuoteryhmän suosituimmilla tuotteilla.

Reproducibility of heart rate variability parameters measured in healthy subjects at rest and after a postural change maneuver

Heart rate variability (HRV) provides important information about cardiac autonomic modulation. Since it is a noninvasive and inexpensive method, HRV has been used to evaluate several parameters of cardiovascular health. However, the internal reproducibility of this method has been challenged in some studies. Our aim was to determine the intra-individual reproducibility of HRV parameters in short-term recordings obtained in supine and orthostatic positions. Electrocardiographic (ECG) recordings were obtained from 30 healthy subjects (20-49 years, 14 men) using a digital apparatus (sampling ratio = 250 Hz). ECG was recorded for 10 min in the supine position and for 10 min in the orthostatic position. The procedure was repeated 2-3 h later. Time and frequency domain analyses were performed. Frequency domain included low (LF, 0.04-0.15 Hz) and high frequency (HF, 0.15-0.4 Hz) bands. Power spectral analysis was performed by the autoregressive method and model order was set at 16. Intra-subject agreement was assessed by linear regression analysis, test of difference in variances and limits of agreement. Most HRV measures (pNN50, RMSSD, LF, HF, and LF/HF ratio) were reproducible independent of body position. Better correlation indexes (r > 0.6) were obtained in the orthostatic position. Bland-Altman plots revealed that most values were inside the agreement limits, indicating concordance between measures. Only SDNN and NNv in the supine position were not reproducible. Our results showed reproducibility of HRV parameters when recorded in the same individual with a short time between two exams. The increased sympathetic activity occurring in the orthostatic position probably facilitates reproducibility of the HRV indexes.

Suomen taloussuhdanteiden kansainvälinen yhteisvaihtelu

Taloussuhdanteiden yhteisvaihtelun tutkimus on eräs taloustieteiden vanhimmista tutkimusaloista. Finanssikriisi ja euroalueen kohtaamat talousvaikeudet ovat kuitenkin nostaneet aiheen jälleen hyvin ajankohtaiseksi. Kuluneiden kahdenkymmenen vuoden aikana tutkimusalueesta on muodostunut erittäin laaja lukuisine näkökulmineen ja debatteineen. Tutkielman aiheena on Suomen taloussuhdanteiden kansainvälinen yhteisvaihtelu valittujen vertailumaiden kanssa. Vertailumaat ovat Ruotsi, Norja, Tanska, Saksa, Ranska, Iso-Britannia ja Yhdysvallat. Tutkielmaan valitut taloussuhdannetta kuvaavat muuttujat ovat reaalinen bruttokansantuote, yksityinen kokonaiskulutus ja teollisuustuotantoindeksi. Aineisto on kerätty Lappeenrannan tiedekirjaston Nelli-portaalin OECD iLibrary-tietokannasta ja se kattaa aikajakson 1960 Q1- 2014 Q4. Maakohtainen taloussuhdanne operationalisoidaan laskemalla ensimmäinen logaritminen differenssi, joka edustaa perinteistä reaalisuhdanneteoreettisen koulukunnan näkemystä taloussuhdanteesta. Tutkielman näkökulmaksi valitaan yhden maan näkökulma, joka on hieman harvinaisempi näkökulma verrattuna laajempiin alueellisiin näkökulmiin. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytetään Pearsonin korrelaatiokerrointa, Engle-Granger- sekä Johansenin yhteisintegroituvuustestejä ja VAR-GARCH-BEKK –mallilla laskettua dynaamista korrelaatiota, jotka lasketaan Suomen ja vertailumaiden välille maapareittain. Tuloksia tulkitaan suomalaisen vientiä vertailumaihin suunnittelevan yrityksen näkökulmasta. Tutkielman tulosten perusteella Engle-Grangerin menetelmällä laskettu samanaikainen yhteisintegroituvuus Suomen ja vertailumaiden välillä on epätodennäköistä. Kun yhteisintegroituvuuden annetaan riippua myös viiveistä, saadaan Johansenin menetelmällä yhteisintegroituvuus Suomen ja Yhdysvaltojen välille reaalisessa bruttokansantuotteessa, Suomen ja Saksan, Suomen ja Ranskan sekä Suomen ja Yhdysvaltojen välille yksityisessä kokonaiskulutuksessa sekä Suomen ja Norjan välille teollisuustuotantoindeksissä. Tulosten tulkintaa vaikeuttavat niiden malliriippuvuus ja informaatiokriteerien toisistaan poikkeavat mallisuositukset, joten yhteisintegroituvuus on mahdollinen myös muiden maaparien kohdalla. Dynaamisten korrelaatiokuvaajien perusteella maaparien välisen yhteisvaihtelun voimakkuus muuttuu ajan mukana. Finanssikriisin aikana kokonaistuotannossa on havaittavissa korkeampi korrelaatio, mutta korrelaatio palaa sen jälkeen perustasolleen. Kokonaiskulutuksen korrelaatio on kokonaistuotantoa alhaisempi ja pitemmissä aikajaksoissa vaihtelevaa.

Calcul en n-dimensions sur GPU

Le code source de la libraire développée accompagne ce dépôt dans l'état où il était à ce moment. Il est possible de trouver une version plus à jour sur github (http://github.com/abergeron).

Optimal retail location and CO2 emissions

In this paper, the p-median model is used to find the location of retail stores that minimizes CO2 emissions from consumer travel. The optimal location is then compared with the existing retail location,and the excess CO2 emissions compared with the optimal solution is calculated. The results show that by using the environmentally optimal location, CO2 emissions from consumer travel could be reduced by approximately 25percent. 

Monte Carlo dose calculation improvements for low energy electron beams using eMC

The electron Monte Carlo (eMC) dose calculation algorithm in Eclipse (Varian Medical Systems) is based on the macro MC method and is able to predict dose distributions for high energy electron beams with high accuracy. However, there are limitations for low energy electron beams. This work aims to improve the accuracy of the dose calculation using eMC for 4 and 6 MeV electron beams of Varian linear accelerators. Improvements implemented into the eMC include (1) improved determination of the initial electron energy spectrum by increased resolution of mono-energetic depth dose curves used during beam configuration; (2) inclusion of all the scrapers of the applicator in the beam model; (3) reduction of the maximum size of the sphere to be selected within the macro MC transport when the energy of the incident electron is below certain thresholds. The impact of these changes in eMC is investigated by comparing calculated dose distributions for 4 and 6 MeV electron beams at source to surface distance (SSD) of 100 and 110 cm with applicators ranging from 6 x 6 to 25 x 25 cm(2) of a Varian Clinac 2300C/D with the corresponding measurements. Dose differences between calculated and measured absolute depth dose curves are reduced from 6% to less than 1.5% for both energies and all applicators considered at SSD of 100 cm. Using the original eMC implementation, absolute dose profiles at depths of 1 cm, d(max) and R50 in water lead to dose differences of up to 8% for applicators larger than 15 x 15 cm(2) at SSD 100 cm. Those differences are now reduced to less than 2% for all dose profiles investigated when the improved version of eMC is used. At SSD of 110 cm the dose difference for the original eMC version is even more pronounced and can be larger than 10%. Those differences are reduced to within 2% or 2 mm with the improved version of eMC. In this work several enhancements were made in the eMC algorithm leading to significant improvements in the accuracy of the dose calculation for 4 and 6 MeV electron beams of Varian linear accelerators.

Neutral behavior of shared polymorphism

Several cases have been described in the literature where genetic polymorphism appears to be shared between a pair of species. Here we examine the distribution of times to random loss of shared polymorphism in the context of the neutral Wright–Fisher model. Order statistics are used to obtain the distribution of times to loss of a shared polymorphism based on Kimura’s solution to the diffusion approximation of the Wright–Fisher model. In a single species, the expected absorption time for a neutral allele having an initial allele frequency of ½ is 2.77 N generations. If two species initially share a polymorphism, that shared polymorphism is lost as soon as either of two species undergoes fixation. The loss of a shared polymorphism thus occurs sooner than loss of polymorphism in a single species and has an expected time of 1.7 N generations. Molecular sequences of genes with shared polymorphism may be characterized by the count of the number of sites that segregate in both species for the same nucleotides (or amino acids). The distribution of the expected numbers of these shared polymorphic sites also is obtained. Shared polymorphism appears to be more likely at genetic loci that have an unusually large number of segregating alleles, and the neutral coalescent proves to be very useful in determining the probability of shared allelic lineages expected by chance. These results are related to examples of shared polymorphism in the literature.

Anomalous Excitation Spectra of Frustrated Quantum Antiferromagnets

We use series expansions to study the excitation spectra of spin-1/2 antiferromagnets on anisotropic triangular lattices. For the isotropic triangular lattice model (TLM), the high-energy spectra show several anomalous features that differ strongly from linear spin-wave theory (LSWT). Even in the Neel phase, the deviations from LSWT increase sharply with frustration, leading to rotonlike minima at special wave vectors. We argue that these results can be interpreted naturally in a spinon language and provide an explanation for the previously observed anomalous finite-temperature properties of the TLM. In the coupled-chains limit, quantum renormalizations strongly enhance the one-dimensionality of the spectra, in agreement with experiments on Cs2CuCl4.

Modelling predicts positive and negative interactions between three Australian tropical tree species in monoculture and binary mixture

Computer modelling promises to. be an important tool for analysing and predicting interactions between trees within mixed species forest plantations. This study explored the use of an individual-based mechanistic model as a predictive tool for designing mixed species plantations of Australian tropical trees. The 'spatially explicit individually based-forest simulator' (SeXI-FS) modelling system was used to describe the spatial interaction of individual tree crowns within a binary mixed-species experiment. The three-dimensional model was developed and verified with field data from three forest tree species grown in tropical Australia. The model predicted the interactions within monocultures and binary mixtures of Flindersia brayleyana, Eucalyptus pellita and Elaeocarpus grandis, accounting for an average of 42% of the growth variation exhibited by species in different treatments. The model requires only structural dimensions and shade tolerance as species parameters. By modelling interactions in existing tree mixtures, the model predicted both increases and reductions in the growth of mixtures (up to +/- 50% of stem volume at 7 years) compared to monocultures. This modelling approach may be useful for designing mixed tree plantations. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modelling of non-stationary processes using radial basis function networks

This paper reports preliminary progress on a principled approach to modelling nonstationary phenomena using neural networks. We are concerned with both parameter and model order complexity estimation. The basic methodology assumes a Bayesian foundation. However to allow the construction of pragmatic models, successive approximations have to be made to permit computational tractibility. The lowest order corresponds to the (Extended) Kalman filter approach to parameter estimation which has already been applied to neural networks. We illustrate some of the deficiencies of the existing approaches and discuss our preliminary generalisations, by considering the application to nonstationary time series.

Tracking of non-stationary time-series using resource allocating RBF networks

In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Using electricity load data and training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise and forgetting factors for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. We also find that a recently-proposed alternative novelty criterion, found to be more robust in stationary environments, does not fare so well in the non-stationary case due to the need for filter adaptability during training.

An improved novelty criterion for resource allocating networks

Online model order complexity estimation remains one of the key problems in neural network research. The problem is further exacerbated in situations where the underlying system generator is non-stationary. In this paper, we introduce a novelty criterion for resource allocating networks (RANs) which is capable of being applied to both stationary and slowly varying non-stationary problems. The deficiencies of existing novelty criteria are discussed and the relative performances are demonstrated on two real-world problems : electricity load forecasting and exchange rate prediction.

Practical methods of tracking of nonstationary time series applied to real-world data

In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Two real world data sets, containing electricity load demands and foreign exchange market prices, are used to test several different methods, ranging from linear models with fixed parameters, to non-linear models which adapt both parameters and model order on-line. Training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. The results of our experiments show that there are advantages to be gained in tracking real world non-stationary data through the use of more complex adaptive models.

Dynamic-Data Driven Real-Time Identification for Electric Power Systems

Power system engineers face a double challenge: to operate electric power systems within narrow stability and security margins, and to maintain high reliability. There is an acute need to better understand the dynamic nature of power systems in order to be prepared for critical situations as they arise. Innovative measurement tools, such as phasor measurement units, can capture not only the slow variation of the voltages and currents but also the underlying oscillations in a power system. Such dynamic data accessibility provides us a strong motivation and a useful tool to explore dynamic-data driven applications in power systems. To fulfill this goal, this dissertation focuses on the following three areas: Developing accurate dynamic load models and updating variable parameters based on the measurement data, applying advanced nonlinear filtering concepts and technologies to real-time identification of power system models, and addressing computational issues by implementing the balanced truncation method. By obtaining more realistic system models, together with timely updated parameters and stochastic influence consideration, we can have an accurate portrait of the ongoing phenomena in an electrical power system. Hence we can further improve state estimation, stability analysis and real-time operation.

OUTSOURCING SALARIAL: opción generadora de empleo en la crisis económica actual

Resumen En este artículo se presenta un modelo de reducción de costos para una unidad productiva mediante la opción de outsourcing salarial dentro de la misma organización y que permite simultáneamente disminuir los costos salariales y mantener los derechos de los trabajadores estipulados en la legislación laboral del país. Una opción alternativa en situaciones de crisis económica mundial. Abstract In this article there presents himself a model of reduction of costs for a productive unit by means of the option of wage outsourcing inside the same organization and that allows to diminish simultaneously the wage costs and to support the rights of the workpeople stipulated in the labor legislation of the country. An alternative option in situations of economic world crisis.