STOMACH CONTENTS ANALYSIS of WHITE MARLIN (TETRAPTURUS ALBIDUS) CAUGHT OFF SOUTHERN and SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL: A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS.

This study proposes to ascertain the importance of each alimentary category in the Tetrapturus albidus diet composition, as well as to propose the use of the Bayesian approach for analysis of these data. The stomachs were collected during fishing cruises carried out by the Santos-SP longliner from July 2007 to June 2008. For Bayesian model formulation, each alimentary item was clustered in four food categories as: teleost, cephalopod, crustaceans, and others. To estimate the proportion of each food category, the multinomial model with Dirichlet conjugate prior distribution was used. After the stomach contents analysis, 133 food items were identified, which belonged to 9 taxa. The most important food category is constituted by cephalopod molluscs, followed by teleost fishes. The food category comprised of crustaceans presents a low contribution and in this case it could be considered to be an accidental food item. The Bayesian approach means a distinct view in relation to traditional methods, as it permits one to incorporate information obtained from the literature. It should be useful to analyse great top predators, which are usually caught in small numbers.

Towards an intelligent graphical interface for linear programming modelling

The increase of computing power of the microcomputers has stimulated the building of direct manipulation interfaces that allow graphical representation of Linear Programming (LP) models. This work discusses the components of such a graphical interface as the basis for a system to assist users in the process of formulating LP problems. In essence, this work proposes a methodology which considers the modelling task as divided into three stages which are specification of the Data Model, the Conceptual Model and the LP Model. The necessity for using Artificial Intelligence techniques in the problem conceptualisation and to help the model formulation task is illustrated.

O bóson de Higgs no modelo padrão das interações eletrofracas: aspectos fenomenológicos do setor escalar e resultados experimentais

Pós-graduação em Física - FEG

Reliable estimation of dense optical flow fields with large displacements

[EN] In this paper we show that a classic optical flow technique by Nagel and Enkelmann can be regarded as an early anisotropic diffusion method with a diffusion tensor. We introduce three improvements into the model formulation that avoid inconsistencies caused by centering the brightness term and the smoothness term in different images use a linear scale-space focusing strategy from coarse to fine scales for avoiding convergence to physically irrelevant local minima, and create an energy functional that is invariant under linear brightness changes.  Applying a gradient descent method to the resulting energy functional leads to a system of diffusion-reaction equations. We prove that this system has a unique solution under realistic assumptions on the initial data, and we present an efficient linear implicit numerical scheme in detail. Our method creates flow fields with 100% density over the entire image domain, it is robust under a large range of parameter variations, and it can recover displacement fields that are far beyond the typical one-pixel limits which are characteristic for many differential methods for determining optical flow. We show that it performs better than the classic optical flow methods with 100%  density that are evaluated by Barron et al. (1994). Our software is available from the Internet.

A scale-space aproach to nonlocal optical flow calculations

[EN] This paper presents an interpretation of a classic optical flow method by Nagel and Enkelmann as a tensor-driven anisotropic diffusion approach in digital image analysis. We introduce an improvement into the model formulation, and we establish well-posedness results for the resulting system of parabolic partial differential equations. Our method avoids linearizations in the optical flow constraint, and it can recover displacement fields which are far beyond the typical one-pixel limits that are characteristic for many differential methods for optical flow recovery. A robust numerical scheme is presented in detail. We avoid convergence to irrelevant local minima by embedding our method into a linear scale-space framework and using a focusing strategy from coarse to fine scales. The high accuracy of the proposed method is demonstrated by means of a synthetic and a real-world image sequence.

Models and methods for power monolithic microwave integrated circuits

Computer aided design of Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits (MMICs) depends critically on active device models that are accurate, computationally efficient, and easily extracted from measurements or device simulators. Empirical models of active electron devices, which are based on actual device measurements, do not provide a detailed description of the electron device physics. However they are numerically efficient and quite accurate. These characteristics make them very suitable for MMIC design in the framework of commercially available CAD tools. In the empirical model formulation it is very important to separate linear memory effects (parasitic effects) from the nonlinear effects (intrinsic effects). Thus an empirical active device model is generally described by an extrinsic linear part which accounts for the parasitic passive structures connecting the nonlinear intrinsic electron device to the external world. An important task circuit designers deal with is evaluating the ultimate potential of a device for specific applications. In fact once the technology has been selected, the designer would choose the best device for the particular application and the best device for the different blocks composing the overall MMIC. Thus in order to accurately reproducing the behaviour of different-in-size devices, good scalability properties of the model are necessarily required. Another important aspect of empirical modelling of electron devices is the mathematical (or equivalent circuit) description of the nonlinearities inherently associated with the intrinsic device. Once the model has been defined, the proper measurements for the characterization of the device are performed in order to identify the model. Hence, the correct measurement of the device nonlinear characteristics (in the device characterization phase) and their reconstruction (in the identification or even simulation phase) are two of the more important aspects of empirical modelling. This thesis presents an original contribution to nonlinear electron device empirical modelling treating the issues of model scalability and reconstruction of the device nonlinear characteristics. The scalability of an empirical model strictly depends on the scalability of the linear extrinsic parasitic network, which should possibly maintain the link between technological process parameters and the corresponding device electrical response. Since lumped parasitic networks, together with simple linear scaling rules, cannot provide accurate scalable models, either complicate technology-dependent scaling rules or computationally inefficient distributed models are available in literature. This thesis shows how the above mentioned problems can be avoided through the use of commercially available electromagnetic (EM) simulators. They enable the actual device geometry and material stratification, as well as losses in the dielectrics and electrodes, to be taken into account for any given device structure and size, providing an accurate description of the parasitic effects which occur in the device passive structure. It is shown how the electron device behaviour can be described as an equivalent two-port intrinsic nonlinear block connected to a linear distributed four-port passive parasitic network, which is identified by means of the EM simulation of the device layout, allowing for better frequency extrapolation and scalability properties than conventional empirical models. Concerning the issue of the reconstruction of the nonlinear electron device characteristics, a data approximation algorithm has been developed for the exploitation in the framework of empirical table look-up nonlinear models. Such an approach is based on the strong analogy between timedomain signal reconstruction from a set of samples and the continuous approximation of device nonlinear characteristics on the basis of a finite grid of measurements. According to this criterion, nonlinear empirical device modelling can be carried out by using, in the sampled voltage domain, typical methods of the time-domain sampling theory.

A Column-Generation Approach for a Short-Term Production Planning Problem in Closed-Loop Supply Chains

We present a new model formulation for a multi-product lot-sizing problem with product returns and remanufacturing subject to a capacity constraint. The given external demand of the products has to be satisfied by remanufactured or newly produced goods. The objective is to determine a feasible production plan, which minimizes production, holding, and setup costs. As the LP relaxation of a model formulation based on the well-known CLSP leads to very poor lower bounds, we propose a column-generation approach to determine tighter bounds. The lower bound obtained by column generation can be easily transferred into a feasible solution by a truncated branch-and-bound approach using CPLEX. The results of an extensive numerical study show the high solution quality of the proposed solution approach.

Logistic regression models for ordinal response: A study of self-efficacy in colorectal cancer screening

The ordinal logistic regression models are used to analyze the dependant variable with multiple outcomes that can be ranked, but have been underutilized. In this study, we describe four logistic regression models for analyzing the ordinal response variable. ^ In this methodological study, the four regression models are proposed. The first model uses the multinomial logistic model. The second is adjacent-category logit model. The third is the proportional odds model and the fourth model is the continuation-ratio model. We illustrate and compare the fit of these models using data from the survey designed by the University of Texas, School of Public Health research project PCCaSO (Promoting Colon Cancer Screening in people 50 and Over), to study the patient’s confidence in the completion colorectal cancer screening (CRCS). ^ The purpose of this study is two fold: first, to provide a synthesized review of models for analyzing data with ordinal response, and second, to evaluate their usefulness in epidemiological research, with particular emphasis on model formulation, interpretation of model coefficients, and their implications. Four ordinal logistic models that are used in this study include (1) Multinomial logistic model, (2) Adjacent-category logistic model [9], (3) Continuation-ratio logistic model [10], (4) Proportional logistic model [11]. We recommend that the analyst performs (1) goodness-of-fit tests, (2) sensitivity analysis by fitting and comparing different models.^

Modelo multifactorial para optimización de la productividad en el proceso de generación de energía eléctrica : aplicación al caso de las centrales hidroeléctricas venezolanas

Las organizaciones son sistemas o unidades sociales, compuestas por personas que interactúan entre sí, para lograr objetivos comunes. Uno de sus objetivos es la productividad. La productividad es un constructo multidimensional en la que influyen aspectos tecnológicos, económicos, organizacionales y humanos. Diversos estudios apoyan la influencia de la motivación de las personas, de las habilidades y destrezas de los individuos, de su talento para desempeñar el trabajo, así como también del ambiente de trabajo presente en la organización, en la productividad. Por esta razón, el objetivo general de la investigación, es analizar la influencia entre los factores humanos y la productividad. Se hará énfasis en la persona como factor productivo clave, para responder a las interrogantes de la investigación, referidas a cuáles son las variables humanas que inciden en la productividad, a la posibilidad de plantear un modelo de productividad que considere el impacto del factor humano y la posibilidad de encontrar un método para la medición de la productividad que contemple la percepción del factor humano. Para resolver estas interrogantes, en esta investigación se busca establecer las relaciones entre las variables humanas y la productividad, vistas desde la perspectiva de tres unidades de análisis diferentes: individuo, grupo y organización, para la formulación de un modelo de productividad humana y el diseño de un instrumento para su medida. Una de las principales fuente de investigación para la elección de las variables humanas, la formulación del modelo, y el método de medición de la productividad, fue la revisión de la literatura disponible sobre la productividad y el factor humano en las organizaciones, lo que facilitó el trazado del marco teórico y conceptual. Otra de las fuentes para la selección fue la opinión de expertos y de especialistas directamente involucrados en el sector eléctrico venezolano, lo cual facilitó la obtención de un modelo, cuyas variables reflejasen la realidad del ámbito en estudio. Para aportar una interpretación explicativa del fenómeno, se planteó el modelo de los Factores Humanos vs Productividad (MFHP), el cual se analizó desde la perspectiva del análisis causal y fue conformado por tres variables latentes exógenas denominadas: factores individuales, factores grupales y factores organizacionales, que estaban relacionadas con una variable latente endógena denominada productividad. El MFHP se formuló mediante la metodología de los modelos de ecuaciones estructurales (SEM). Las relaciones inicialmente propuestas entre las variables latentes fueron corroboradas por los ajustes globales del modelo, se constataron las relaciones entre las variables latentes planteadas y sus indicadores asociados, lo que facilitó el enunciado de 26 hipótesis, de las cuales se comprobaron 24. El modelo fue validado mediante la estrategia de modelos rivales, utilizada para comparar varios modelos SEM, y seleccionar el de mejor ajuste, con sustento teórico. La aceptación del modelo se realizó mediante la evaluación conjunta de los índices de bondad de ajuste globales. Asimismo, para la elaboración del instrumento de medida de la productividad (IMPH), se realizó un análisis factorial exploratorio previo a la aplicación del análisis factorial confirmatorio, aplicando SEM. La revisión de los conceptos de productividad, la incidencia del factor humano, y sus métodos de medición, condujeron al planteamiento de métodos subjetivos que incorporaron la percepción de los principales actores del proceso productivo, tanto para la selección de las variables, como para la formulación de un modelo de productividad y el diseño de un instrumento de medición de la productividad. La contribución metodológica de este trabajo de investigación, ha sido el empleo de los SEM para relacionar variables que tienen que ver con el comportamiento humano en la organización y la productividad, lo cual abre nuevas posibilidades a la investigación en este ámbito. Organizations are social systems or units composed of people who interact with each other to achieve common goals. One objective is productivity, which is a multidimensional construct influenced by technological, economic, organizational and human aspects. Several studies support the influence on productivity of personal motivation, of the skills and abilities of individuals, of their talent for the job, as well as of the work environment present in the organization. Therefore, the overall objective of this research is to analyze the influence between human factors and productivity. The emphasis is on the individual as a productive factor which is key in order to answer the research questions concerning the human variables that affect productivity and to address the ability to propose a productivity model that considers the impact of the human factor and the possibility of finding a method for the measurement of productivity that includes the perception of the human factor. To consider these questions, this research seeks to establish the relationships between human and productivity variables, as seen from the perspective of three different units of analysis: the individual, the group and the organization, in order to formulate a model of human productivity and to design an instrument for its measurement. A major source of research for choosing the human variables, model formulation, and method of measuring productivity, was the review of the available literature on productivity and the human factor in organizations which facilitated the design of the theoretical and conceptual framework. Another source for the selection was the opinion of experts and specialists directly involved in the Venezuelan electricity sector which facilitated obtaining a model whose variables reflect the reality of the area under study. To provide an interpretation explaining the phenomenon, the model of the Human Factors vs. Productivity Model (HFPM) was proposed. This model has been analyzed from the perspective of causal analysis and was composed of three latent exogenous variables denominated: individual, group and organizational factors which are related to a latent variable denominated endogenous productivity. The HFPM was formulated using the methodology of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The initially proposed relationships between latent variables were confirmed by the global fits of the model, the relationships between the latent variables and their associated indicators enable the statement of 26 hypotheses, of which 24 were confirmed. The model was validated using the strategy of rival models, used for comparing various SEM models and to select the one that provides the best fit, with theoretical support. The acceptance of the model was performed through the joint evaluation of the adequacy of global fit indices. Additionally, for the development of an instrument to measure productivity, an exploratory factor analysis was performed prior to the application of a confirmatory factor analysis, using SEM. The review of the concepts of productivity, the impact of the human factor, and the measurement methods led to a subjective methods approach that incorporated the perception of the main actors of the production process, both for the selection of variables and for the formulation of a productivity model and the design of an instrument to measure productivity. The methodological contribution of this research has been the use of SEM to relate variables that have to do with human behavior in the organization and with productivity, opening new possibilities for research in this area.

Comportamiento estructural de elementos de fábrica reforzados con materiales compuestos avanzados solicitados a flexión y flexocompresión

El refuerzo de estructuras existentes mediante el encolado exterior de láminas de polímeros reforzados con fibras (FRP) se ha convertido en la aplicación más común de los materiales compuestos avanzados en construcción. Estos materiales presentan muchas ventajas frente a los materiales convencionales (sin corrosión, ligeros, de fácil aplicación, etc.). Pero a pesar de las numerosas investigaciones realizadas, aún persisten ciertas dudas sobre algunos aspectos de su comportamiento y las aplicaciones prácticas se llevan a cabo sólo con la ayuda de guías, sin que haya una normativa oficial. El objetivo de este trabajo es incrementar el conocimiento sobre esta técnica de refuerzo, y más concretamente, sobre el refuerzo a flexión de estructuras de fábrica. Con frecuencia el elemento reforzado es de hormigón armado y las láminas de FRP encoladas al exterior sirven para mejorar su resistencia a flexión, cortante o compresión (encamisados). Sin embargo su empleo en otros materiales como las estructuras de fábrica resulta muy prometedor. Las fábricas se caracterizan por soportar muy bien los esfuerzos de compresión pero bastante mal los de tracción. Adherir láminas de materiales compuestos puede servir para mejorar la capacidad resistente de elementos de fábrica sometidos a esfuerzos de flexión. Pero para ello, debe quedar garantizada una correcta adherencia entre el FRP y la fábrica, especialmente en edificios antiguos cuya superficie puede estar deteriorada por encontrarse a la intemperie o por el propio paso del tiempo. En el capítulo II se describen los objetivos fundamentales del trabajo y el método seguido. En el capítulo III se hace una amplia revisión del estado de conocimiento sobre el tema. En el apartado III.1 se detallan las principales características y propiedades mecánicas de fibras, matrices y materiales compuestos así como sus principales aplicaciones, haciendo especial hincapié en aspectos relativos a su durabilidad. En el apartado III.2 se incluye una revisión histórica de las líneas de investigación, tanto teóricas como empíricas, publicadas sobre estructuras de hormigón reforzadas a flexión encolando materiales compuestos. El apartado III.3 se centra en el aspecto fundamental de la adherencia refuerzo-soporte. Se hace un repaso a distintos modelos propuestos para prevenir el despegue distinguiendo si éste se inicia en la zona de anclaje o si está inducido por fisuras en la zona interior del elemento. Se observa falta de consenso en las propuestas. Además en este punto se relatan las campañas experimentales publicadas acerca de la adherencia entre materiales compuestos y fábricas. En el apartado III.4 se analizan las particularidades de las estructuras de fábrica. Además, se revisan algunas de las investigaciones relativas a la mejora de su comportamiento a flexión mediante láminas de FRP. El comportamiento mecánico de muros reforzados solicitados a flexión pura (sin compresión) ha sido documentado por varios autores, si bien es una situación poco frecuente en fábricas reales. Ni el comportamiento mecánico de muros reforzados solicitados a flexocompresión ni la incidencia que el nivel de compresión soportado por la fábrica tiene sobre la capacidad resistente del elemento reforzado han sido suficientemente tratados. En cuanto a los trabajos teóricos, las diferentes propuestas se basan en los métodos utilizados para hormigón armado y comparten los principios habituales de cálculo. Sin embargo, presentan diferencias relativas, sobre todo, a tres aspectos: 1) la forma de modelar el comportamiento de la fábrica, 2) el valor de deformación de cálculo del refuerzo, y 3) el modo de fallo que se considera recomendable buscar con el diseño. A pesar de ello, el ajuste con la parte experimental de cada trabajo suele ser bueno debido a una enorme disparidad en las variables consideradas. Cada campaña presenta un modo de fallo característico y la formulación que se propone resulta apropiada para él. Parece necesario desarrollar un método de cálculo para fábricas flexocomprimidas reforzadas con FRP que pueda ser utilizado para todos los posibles fallos, tanto atribuibles a la lámina como a la fábrica. En el apartado III.4 se repasan algunas lesiones habituales en fábricas solicitadas a flexión y se recogen ejemplos de refuerzos con FRP para reparar o prevenir estos daños. Para mejorar el conocimiento sobre el tema, se llevan a cabo dos pequeñas campañas experimentales realizadas en el Instituto de Ciencias de la Construcción Eduardo Torroja. La primera acerca de la adherencia de materiales compuestos encolados a fábricas deterioradas (apartado IV.1) y la segunda sobre el comportamiento estructural a flexocompresión de probetas de fábrica reforzadas con estos materiales (apartado IV.2). En el capítulo V se analizan algunos de los modelos de adherencia propuestos para prevenir el despegue del extremo del refuerzo. Se confirma que las predicciones obtenidas con ellos resultan muy dispares. Se recopila una base de datos con los resultados experimentales de campañas sobre adherencia de FRP a fábricas extraídas de la literatura y de los resultados propios de la campaña descrita en el punto IV.1. Esta base de datos permite conocer cual de los métodos analizados resulta más adecuado para dimensionar el anclaje de láminas de FRP adheridas a fábricas. En el capítulo VI se propone un método para la comprobación en agotamiento de secciones de fábrica reforzadas con materiales compuestos sometidas a esfuerzos combinados de flexión y compresión. Está basado en el procedimiento de cálculo de la capacidad resistente de secciones de hormigón armado pero adaptado a las fábricas reforzadas. Para ello, se utiliza un diagrama de cálculo tensión deformación de la fábrica de tipo bilineal (acorde con el CTE DB SE-F) cuya simplicidad facilita el desarrollo de toda la formulación al tiempo que resulta adecuado para predecir la capacidad resistente a flexión tanto para fallos debidos al refuerzo como a la fábrica. Además se limita la deformación de cálculo del refuerzo teniendo en consideración ciertos aspectos que provocan que la lámina adherida no pueda desarrollar toda su resistencia, como el desprendimiento inducido por fisuras en el interior del elemento o el deterioro medioambiental. En concreto, se propone un “coeficiente reductor por adherencia” que se determina a partir de una base de datos con 68 resultados experimentales procedentes de publicaciones de varios autores y de los ensayos propios de la campaña descrita en el punto IV.2. También se revisa la formulación propuesta con ayuda de la base de datos. En el capítulo VII se estudia la incidencia de las principales variables, como el axil, la deformación de cálculo del refuerzo o su rigidez, en la capacidad final del elemento. Las conclusiones del trabajo realizado y las posibles líneas futuras de investigación se exponen en el capítulo VIII. ABSTRACT Strengthening of existing structures with externally bonded fiber reinforced polymers (FRP) has become the most common application of advanced composite materials in construction. These materials exhibit many advantages in comparison with traditional ones (corrosion resistance, light weight, easy to apply, etc.). But despite countless researches have been done, there are still doubts about some aspects of their behaviour and applications are carried out only with the help of guidelines, without official regulations. The aim of this work is to improve the knowledge on this retrofitting technique, particularly in regard to flexural strengthening of masonry structures. Reinforced concrete is often the strengthened material and external glued FRP plates are used to improve its flexural, shear or compressive (by wrapping) capacity. However the use of this technique on other materials like masonry structures looks promising. Unreinforced masonry is characterized for being a good material to support compressive stresses but really bad to withstand tensile ones. Glue composite plates can improve the flexural capacity of masonry elements subject to bending. But a proper bond between FRP sheet and masonry must be ensured to do that, especially in old buildings whose surface can be damaged due to being outside or ageing. The main objectives of the work and the methodology carried out are described In Chapter II. An extensive overview of the state of art is done in Chapter III. In Section III.1 physical and mechanical properties of fibers, matrix and composites and their main applications are related. Durability aspects are especially emphasized. Section III.2 includes an historical overview of theoretical and empirical researches on concrete structures strengthened gluing FRP plates to improve their flexural behaviour. Section III.3 focuses on the critical point of bonding between FRP and substrate. Some theoretical models to prevent debonding of FRP laminate are reviewed, it has made a distinction between models for detachment at the end of the plate or debonding in the intermediate zones due to the effects of cracks. It is observed a lack of agreement in the proposals. Some experimental studies on bonding between masonry and FRP are also related in this chapter. The particular characteristics of masonry structures are analyzed in Section III.4. Besides some empirical and theoretical investigations relative to improve their flexural capacity with FRP sheets are reviewed. The mechanical behaviour of strengthened walls subject to pure bending (without compression) has been established by several authors, but this is an unusual situation for real masonry. Neither mechanical behaviour of walls subject to bending and compression nor influence of axial load in the final capacity of the strengthened element are adequately studied. In regard to theoretical studies, the different proposals are based on reinforced concrete analytical methods and share common design principles. However, they present differences, especially, about three aspects: 1) the constitutive law of masonry, 2) the value of ultimate FRP strain and 3) the desirable failure mode that must be looked for. In spite of them, a good agreement between each experimental program and its theoretical study is often exhibited due to enormous disparity in considered test parameters. Each experimental program usually presents a characteristic failure mode and the proposed formulation results appropriate for this one. It seems necessary to develop a method for FRP strengthened walls subject to bending and compression enable for all failure modes (due to FRP or masonry). Some common damages in masonry subject to bending are explained in Section III.4. Examples of FRP strengthening to repair or prevent these damages are also written. Two small experimental programs are carried out in Eduardo Torroja Institute to improve the knowledge on this topic. The first one is concerned about the bond between FRP plates and damaged masonry (section IV.1) and the second one is related to the mechanical behaviour of the strengthened masonry specimens subject to out of plane bending combined with axial force (section IV.2). In the Chapter V some bond models to prevent the debonding at the FRP plate end are checked. It is confirmed that their predictions are so different. A pure-shear test database is compiled with results from the existing literature and others from the experimental program described in section IV.1. This database lets know which of the considered model is more suitable to design anchorage lengths of glued FRP to masonry. In the Chapter VI a method to check unreinforced masonry sections with external FRP strengthening subject to bending and compression to the ultimate limit state is proposed. This method is based on concrete reinforced one, but it is adapted to strengthened masonry. A bilinear constitutive law is used for masonry (according to CTE DB SE-F). Its simplicity helps to develop the model formulation and it has proven to be suitable to predict bending capacity either for FRP failures or masonry crushing. With regard to FRP, the design strain is limited. It is taken into account different aspects which cause the plate can’t reach its ultimate strength, like intermediate FRP debonding induced by opening cracking or environmental damage. A “bond factor” is proposed. It is obtained by means of an experimental bending test database that includes 68 results from the existing literature and from the experimental program described in section IV.2. The proposed formulation has also been checked with the help of bending database. The effects of the main parameters, like axial load, FRP design effective strain or FRP stiffness, on the bending capacity of the strengthened element are studied in Chapter VII. Finally, the main conclusions from the work carried out are summarized in Chapter VIII. Future lines of research to be explored are suggested as well.

Multi-objective optimization of environmentally conscious chemical supply chains under demand uncertainty

In this work, we analyze the effect of demand uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear program (MILP) with the unique feature of incorporating explicitly the demand uncertainty using scenarios with given probability of occurrence. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of summer precipitation over Central Europe in a suite of high-resolution climate models

High-impact, localized intense rainfall episodes represent a major socio-economic problem for societies worldwide, and at the same time these events are notoriously difficult to simulate properly in climate models. Here, the authors investigate how horizontal resolution and model formulation influence this issue by applying the HARMONIE regional climate model (HCLIM) with three different setups; two using convection parameterization at 15 and 6.25 km horizontal resolution (the latter within the “grey-zone” scale), with lateral boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim reanalysis and integrated over a pan-European domain, and one with explicit convection at 2 km resolution (HCLIM2) over the Alpine region driven by the 15 km model. Seven summer seasons were sampled and validated against two high-resolution observational data sets. All HCLIM versions underestimate the number of dry days and hours by 20-40%, and overestimate precipitation over the Alpine ridge. Also, only modest added value were found of “grey-zone” resolution. However, the single most important outcome is the substantial added value in HCLIM2 compared to the coarser model versions at sub-daily time scales. It better captures the local-to-regional spatial patterns of precipitation reflecting a more realistic representation of the local and meso-scale dynamics. Further, the duration and spatial frequency of precipitation events, as well as extremes, are closer to observations. These characteristics are key ingredients in heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods, and the outstanding results using HCLIM in convection-permitting setting are convincing and encourage further use of the model to study changes in such events in changing climates.

Classification and analysis of integrating frameworks in multiscale modelling

Chemical engineers are turning to multiscale modelling to extend traditional modelling approaches into new application areas and to achieve higher levels of detail and accuracy. There is, however, little advice available on the best strategy to use in constructing a multiscale model. This paper presents a starting point for the systematic analysis of multiscale models by defining several integrating frameworks for linking models at different scales. It briefly explores how the nature of the information flow between the models at the different scales is influenced by the choice of framework, and presents some restrictions on model-framework compatibility. The concepts are illustrated with reference to the modelling of a catalytic packed bed reactor. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.