The development of the experience and anticipation of regret

Although recent studies have established that children experience regret from around 6 years, we do not yet know when the ability to anticipate this emotion emerges, despite the importance of the anticipation of regret in decision-making. We examined whether children will anticipate they will feel regret if they were to find out in a box-choosing game that, had they made a different choice, they would have obtained a better prize. Experiment 1 replicated Guttentag and Ferrell’s study in which children were asked what they hoped was in a non-chosen box. Even 8- to 9-year olds find this question difficult. However, when asked what might make them feel sadder, 7- to 8-year olds (but not younger children) predicted that finding the larger prize in the unchosen box would make them feel this way. In Experiments 2 and 3, children predicted how they would feel if the unchosen box contained either a larger or smaller prize, in order to examine anticipation of both regret and of relief. Although 6- to 7-year olds do experience regret when they find out they could have won a better prize, they do not correctly anticipate feeling this way. By around 8 years, the majority of children are able to anticipate both regret and relief.

Regret minimisation and utility maximisation in a freight transport context

This study is the first to compare random regret minimisation (RRM) and random utility maximisation (RUM) in freight transport application. This paper aims to compare RRM and RUM in a freight transport scenario involving negative shock in the reference alternative. Based on data from two stated choice experiments conducted among Swiss logistics managers, this study contributes to related literature by exploring for the first time the use of mixed logit models in the most recent version of the RRM approach. We further investigate two paradigm choices by computing elasticities and forecasting choice probability. We find that regret is important in describing the managers’ choices. Regret increases in the shock scenario, supporting the idea that a shift in reference point can cause a shift towards regret minimisation. Differences in elasticities and forecast probability are identified and discussed appropriately.

Regret and adaptive decision making in young children

In line with the claim that regret plays a role in decision making, O’Connor, McCormack, and Feeney (2014) found that children who reported feeling sadder on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice were more likely to make a different choice next time round. We examined two issues of interpretation regarding this finding: whether the emotion measured was indeed regret, and whether it was the experience of this emotion rather than the ability to anticipate it that impacted on decision making. To address the first issue, we varied the degree to which children aged 6-7 were responsible for an outcome, assuming that responsibility is a necessary condition for regret. The second was addressed by examining whether children could accurately anticipate that they would feel worse on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice. Children were more likely to feel sad if they were responsible for the outcome; however even if they were not responsible, children were more likely than chance to report feeling sadder. Moreover, across all conditions feeling sadder was associated with making a better subsequent choice. In a separate task, we demonstrated that children of this age cannot accurately anticipate feeling sadder on discovering that they had not made the best choice. These findings suggest that although children may feel regret following a non-optimal choice, even if they were not responsible for an outcome they may experience another negative emotion such as frustration. Experiencing either of these emotions seems to be sufficient to support better decision making.

The Development of Regret and Relief About the Outcomes of Risky Decisions

Although a number of studies have examined the developmental emergence of counterfactual emotions of regret and relief, none of these have used tasks that resemble those used with adolescents and adults, which typically involve risky decision making. We examined the development of the counterfactual emotions of regret and relief in two experiments using a task in which children chose between one of two gambles that varied in risk. In regret trials they always received the best prize from that gamble but were then shown that they would have obtained a better prize had they chosen the alternative gamble, whereas in relief trials the other prize was worse. We compared two methods of measuring regret and relief based on children’s reported emotion on discovering the outcome of the alternative gamble, one in which children judged whether they now felt the same, happier, or sadder on seeing the other prize and one in which children made emotion ratings on a 7-point scale after the other prize was revealed. On both these methods, we found that 6- to 7-year-olds’ and 8- to 9-year-olds’ emotions varied appropriately depending on whether the alternative outcome was better or worse than the prize they had actually obtained, although the former method was more sensitive. Our findings indicate that by at least 6-7 years, children experience the same sorts of counterfactual emotions as adults in risky decision making tasks, and also suggest that such emotions are best measured by asking children to make comparative emotion judgments.

Regret associated with past and future messes under a maximizing mind-set

Promotions can make you happy if you get the “best” deal or miserable if you miss it. Previous research on this topic has shown that people favor products associated with a past miss to products associated with a future miss, and people in a maximizing mind-set, i.e. people who search for the best in different domains, feel more regret in a consumption domain. This research confirms that consumers prefer purchasing a product associated with a past miss (Experiments 1 and 2) and that regret levels are higher when participants come across the future miss, under the maximizing mind-set (Experiment 2). These studies add to the notion that information on regret might prompt people to make decisions towards a more optimistic outcome.

Choosing between past and future regret

Sometimes decisions imply trade-offs that force people to accept missing an opportunity in the past or in the future. It has not yet been clarified whether a past miss or a future miss elicits more regret. In a direct comparison, Shani, Danziger, and Zeelenberg found support for the greater impact of future misses. In an experimental design with 216 students, we replicated their study and tested the strength of the future miss in a separate evaluation and with different periods. The results show that future misses cause less regret than past misses do when evaluated separately. However, future misses made participants change their feelings of regret more than past misses did. Feelings of regret did not decrease when future misses were further away. Our findings support the strength of future misses on regret but also show contrasting effects when evaluated separately. This indicates the further need for research in this topic.

Le revers du prince de Condé en vers burlesques. Et le regret de quitter la ville de Paris, pour aller loger au chasteau de Vincennes.

[Mazarinade. 1650]

The von Neumann Minimax Theorem and its relatives and a study of externality in on-line auctions

This work consists of a theoretical part and an experimental one. The first part provides a simple treatment of the celebrated von Neumann minimax theorem as formulated by Nikaid6 and Sion. It also discusses its relationships with fundamental theorems of convex analysis. The second part is about externality in sponsored search auctions. It shows that in these auctions, advertisers have externality effects on each other which influence their bidding behavior. It proposes Hal R.Varian model and shows how adding externality to this model will affect its properties. In order to have a better understanding of the interaction among advertisers in on-line auctions, it studies the structure of the Google advertisements networ.k and shows that it is a small-world scale-free network.

Aspekte der linearen Minimax-Schätzung

Es werde das lineare Regressionsmodell y = X b + e mit den ueblichen Bedingungen betrachtet. Weiter werde angenommen, dass der Parametervektor aus einem Ellipsoid stammt. Ein optimaler Schaetzer fuer den Parametervektor ist durch den Minimax-Schaetzer gegeben. Nach der entscheidungstheoretischen Formulierung des Minimax-Schaetzproblems werden mit dem Bayesschen Ansatz, Spektralen Methoden und der Darstellung von Hoffmann und Laeuter Wege zur Bestimmung des Minimax- Schaetzers dargestellt und in Beziehung gebracht. Eine Betrachtung von Modellen mit drei Einflussgroeßen und gemeinsamen Eigenvektor fuehrt zu einer Strukturierung des Problems nach der Vielfachheit des maximalen Eigenwerts. Die Bestimmung des Minimax-Schaetzers in einem noch nicht geloesten Fall kann auf die Bestimmung einer Nullstelle einer nichtlinearen reellwertigen Funktion gefuehrt werden. Es wird ein Beispiel gefunden, in dem die Nullstelle nicht durch Radikale angegeben werden kann. Durch das Intervallschachtelungs-Prinzip oder Newton-Verfahren ist die numerische Bestimmung der Nullstelle moeglich. Durch Entwicklung einer Fixpunktgleichung aus der Darstellung von Hoffmann und Laeuter war es in einer Simulation moeglich die angestrebten Loesungen zu finden.

Relativistic LCAO with Minimax Principle and New Balanced Basis Sets

Relativistic density functional theory is widely applied in molecular calculations with heavy atoms, where relativistic and correlation effects are on the same footing. Variational stability of the Dirac Hamiltonian is a very important field of research from the beginning of relativistic molecular calculations on, among efforts for accuracy, efficiency, and density functional formulation, etc. Approximations of one- or two-component methods and searching for suitable basis sets are two major means for good projection power against the negative continuum. The minimax two-component spinor linear combination of atomic orbitals (LCAO) is applied in the present work for both light and super-heavy one-electron systems, providing good approximations in the whole energy spectrum, being close to the benchmark minimax finite element method (FEM) values and without spurious and contaminated states, in contrast to the presence of these artifacts in the traditional four-component spinor LCAO. The variational stability assures that minimax LCAO is bounded from below. New balanced basis sets, kinetic and potential defect balanced (TVDB), following the minimax idea, are applied with the Dirac Hamiltonian. Its performance in the same super-heavy one-electron quasi-molecules shows also very good projection capability against variational collapse, as the minimax LCAO is taken as the best projection to compare with. The TVDB method has twice as many basis coefficients as four-component spinor LCAO, which becomes now linear and overcomes the disadvantage of great time-consumption in the minimax method. The calculation with both the TVDB method and the traditional LCAO method for the dimers with elements in group 11 of the periodic table investigates their difference. New bigger basis sets are constructed than in previous research, achieving high accuracy within the functionals involved. Their difference in total energy is much smaller than the basis incompleteness error, showing that the traditional four-spinor LCAO keeps enough projection power from the numerical atomic orbitals and is suitable in research on relativistic quantum chemistry. In scattering investigations for the same comparison purpose, the failure of the traditional LCAO method of providing a stable spectrum with increasing size of basis sets is contrasted to the TVDB method, which contains no spurious states already without pre-orthogonalization of basis sets. Keeping the same conditions including the accuracy of matrix elements shows that the variational instability prevails over the linear dependence of the basis sets. The success of the TVDB method manifests its capability not only in relativistic quantum chemistry but also for scattering and under the influence of strong external electronic and magnetic fields. The good accuracy in total energy with large basis sets and the good projection property encourage wider research on different molecules, with better functionals, and on small effects.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.