Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

Minimal data requirements for a continuous monitoring of the quality of care using the DRG classification.

The DRG classification provides a useful tool for the evaluation of hospital care. Indicators such as readmissions and mortality rates adjusted for the hospital Casemix could be adopted in Switzerland at the price of minor additions to the hospital discharge record. The additional information required to build patients histories and to identify the deaths occurring after hospital discharge is detailed.

Melanotic neuroectodermal tumour of infancy: a case report and review of the aetiopathogenic hypotheses.

The case of a 2-month-old healthy infant without relevant medical history. The patient was referred due to the aggravation of a swelling occupying the left half of the anterior maxilla. This lesion became visible approximately one month ago; it involved the buccal gingiva and alveolar bone, including the deciduous tooth germs 6.1 and 6.2. The swelling had dimensions of 20 mm x 20 mm. The surgical excision was performed under general anesthesia. The tooth buds of 6.1 and 6.2 were closely related to the tumour and so were removed. The lesion was entirely enucleated. The pathology of the lesion confirmed a melanotic neuroectodermal tumour of infancy. The melanotic neuroectodermal tumour of infancy (MNTI) has been described as a rare benign pigmented painless swelling that usually occurs in the anterior region of the maxilla and in the incisor region. The histological examination showed small basophilic cells, many containing melanin pigmentation within the cytoplasm, with a second population of larger cubical cells with abundant cytoplasm, arranged in alveolar or adenoid clusters. According to Krompecher this tumour derives from epithelial nests evolved at the time of embryonic fusion of the facial processes. It has also been suggested that the tumour arises from the retinal anlage by a pinching-off process of neuroepithelium during the formation of embryonic eye. More recently, the presence of high levels of vanillylmandelic acid suggest a neural origin of the tumour.

Postglacial recolonization at a snail's pace (Trochulus villosus): confronting competing refugia hypotheses using model selection.

The localization of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) refugia is crucial information to understand a species' history and predict its reaction to future climate changes. However, many phylogeographical studies often lack sampling designs intensive enough to precisely localize these refugia. The hairy land snail Trochulus villosus has a small range centred on Switzerland, which could be intensively covered by sampling 455 individuals from 52 populations. Based on mitochondrial DNA sequences (COI and 16S), we identified two divergent lineages with distinct geographical distributions. Bayesian skyline plots suggested that both lineages expanded at the end of the LGM. To find where the origin populations were located, we applied the principles of ancestral character reconstruction and identified a candidate refugium for each mtDNA lineage: the French Jura and Central Switzerland, both ice-free during the LGM. Additional refugia, however, could not be excluded, as suggested by the microsatellite analysis of a population subset. Modelling the LGM niche of T. villosus, we showed that suitable climatic conditions were expected in the inferred refugia, but potentially also in the nunataks of the alpine ice shield. In a model selection approach, we compared several alternative recolonization scenarios by estimating the Akaike information criterion for their respective maximum-likelihood migration rates. The 'two refugia' scenario received by far the best support given the distribution of genetic diversity in T. villosus populations. Provided that fine-scale sampling designs and various analytical approaches are combined, it is possible to refine our necessary understanding of species responses to environmental changes.

Both the Fas ligand and inducible nitric oxide synthase are needed for control of parasite replication within lesions in mice infected with Leishmania major whereas the contribution of tumor necrosis factor is minimal.

Following infection with the protozoan parasite Leishmania major, C57BL/6 mice develop a small lesion that heals spontaneously. Resistance to infection is associated with the development of CD4(+) Th1 cells producing gamma interferon (IFN-gamma) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF), which synergize in activating macrophages to their microbicidal state. We show here that C57BL/6 mice lacking both TNF and Fas ligand (FasL) (gld TNF(-/-) mice) infected with L. major neither resolved their lesions nor controlled Leishmania replication despite the development of a strong Th1 response. Comparable inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) activities were detected in lesions of TNF(-/-), gld TNF(-/-), and gld mice, but only gld and gld TNF(-/-) mice failed to control parasite replication. Parasite numbers were high in gld mice and even more elevated in gld TNF(-/-) mice, suggesting that, in addition to iNOS, the Fas/FasL pathway is required for successful control of parasite replication and that TNF contributes only a small part to this process. Furthermore, FasL was shown to synergize with IFN-gamma for the induction of leishmanicidal activity within macrophages infected with L. major in vitro. Interestingly, TNF(-/-) mice maintained large lesion size throughout infection, despite being able to largely control parasite numbers. Thus, IFN-gamma, FasL, and iNOS appear to be essential for the complete control of parasite replication, while the contribution of TNF is more important in controlling inflammation at the site of parasite inoculation.

Minimal optimal generalized quantum measurements

Optimal and finite positive operator valued measurements on a finite number N of identically prepared systems have recently been presented. With physical realization in mind, we propose here optimal and minimal generalized quantum measurements for two-level systems. We explicitly construct them up to N = 7 and verify that they are minimal up to N = 5.

Small, stable shuttle vectors based on the minimal pVS1 replicon for use in gram-negative, plant-associated bacteria.

The minimal replicon of the Pseudomonas plasmid pVS1 was genetically defined and combined with the Escherichia coli p15A replicon, to provide a series of new, oligocopy cloning vectors (5.3 to 8.3 kb). Recombinant plasmids derived from these vectors were stable in growing and nongrowing cells of root-colonizing P. fluorescens strains incubated under different environmental conditions for more than 1 month.

Minimal analytical characterisation of engineered nanomaterials need for hazard assessment in biological matrices

The safe and responsible development of engineered nanomaterials (ENM), nanotechnology-based materials and products, together with the definition of regulatory measures and implementation of "nano"-legislation in Europe require a widely supported scientific basis and sufficient high quality data upon which to base decisions. At the very core of such a scientific basis is a general agreement on key issues related to risk assessment of ENMs which encompass the key parameters to characterise ENMs, appropriate methods of analysis and best approach to express the effect of ENMs in widely accepted dose response toxicity tests. The following major conclusions were drawn: Due to high batch variability of ENMs characteristics of commercially available and to a lesser degree laboratory made ENMs it is not possible to make general statements regarding the toxicity resulting from exposure to ENMs. 1) Concomitant with using the OECD priority list of ENMs, other criteria for selection of ENMs like relevance for mechanistic (scientific) studies or risk assessment-based studies, widespread availability (and thus high expected volumes of use) or consumer concern (route of consumer exposure depending on application) could be helpful. The OECD priority list is focussing on validity of OECD tests. Therefore source material will be first in scope for testing. However for risk assessment it is much more relevant to have toxicity data from material as present in products/matrices to which men and environment are be exposed. 2) For most, if not all characteristics of ENMs, standardized methods analytical methods, though not necessarily validated, are available. Generally these methods are only able to determine one single characteristic and some of them can be rather expensive. Practically, it is currently not feasible to fully characterise ENMs. Many techniques that are available to measure the same nanomaterial characteristic produce contrasting results (e.g. reported sizes of ENMs). It was recommended that at least two complementary techniques should be employed to determine a metric of ENMs. The first great challenge is to prioritise metrics which are relevant in the assessment of biological dose response relations and to develop analytical methods for characterising ENMs in biological matrices. It was generally agreed that one metric is not sufficient to describe fully ENMs. 3) Characterisation of ENMs in biological matrices starts with sample preparation. It was concluded that there currently is no standard approach/protocol for sample preparation to control agglomeration/aggregation and (re)dispersion. It was recommended harmonization should be initiated and that exchange of protocols should take place. The precise methods used to disperse ENMs should be specifically, yet succinctly described within the experimental section of a publication. 4) ENMs need to be characterised in the matrix as it is presented to the test system (in vitro/ in vivo). 5) Alternative approaches (e.g. biological or in silico systems) for the characterisation of ENMS are simply not possible with the current knowledge. Contributors: Iseult Lynch, Hans Marvin, Kenneth Dawson, Markus Berges, Diane Braguer, Hugh J. Byrne, Alan Casey, Gordon Chambers, Martin Clift, Giuliano Elia1, Teresa F. Fernandes, Lise Fjellsbø, Peter Hatto, Lucienne Juillerat, Christoph Klein, Wolfgang Kreyling, Carmen Nickel1, and Vicki Stone.

Prospective monitoring of cefepime in intensive care unit adult patients.

INTRODUCTION: Cefepime has been associated with a greater risk of mortality than other beta-lactams in patients treated for severe sepsis. Hypotheses for this failure include possible hidden side-effects (for example, neurological) or inappropriate pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) parameters for bacteria with cefepime minimal inhibitory concentrations (MIC) at the highest limits of susceptibility (8 mg/l) or intermediate-resistance (16 mg/l) for pathogens such as Enterobacteriaceae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus. We examined these issues in a prospective non-interventional study of 21 consecutive intensive care unit (ICU) adult patients treated with cefepime for nosocomial pneumonia. METHODS: Patients (median age 55.1 years, range 21.8 to 81.2) received intravenous cefepime at 2 g every 12 hours for creatinine clearance (CLCr) >or= 50 ml/min, and 2 g every 24 hours or 36 hours for CLCr < 50 ml/minute. Cefepime plasma concentrations were determined at several time-points before and after drug administration by high-pressure liquid chromatography. PK/PD parameters were computed by standard non-compartmental analysis. RESULTS: Seventeen first-doses and 11 steady states (that is, four to six days after the first dose) were measured. Plasma levels varied greatly between individuals, from two- to three-fold at peak-concentrations to up to 40-fold at trough-concentrations. Nineteen out of 21 (90%) patients had PK/PD parameters comparable to literature values. Twenty-one of 21 (100%) patients had appropriate duration of cefepime concentrations above the MIC (T>MIC >or= 50%) for the pathogens recovered in this study (MIC <or= 4 mg/l), but only 45 to 65% of them had appropriate coverage for potential pathogens with cefepime MIC >or= 8 mg/l. Moreover, 2/21 (10%) patients with renal impairment (CLCr < 30 ml/minute) demonstrated accumulation of cefepime in the plasma (trough concentrations of 20 to 30 mg/l) in spite of dosage adjustment. Both had symptoms compatible with non-convulsive epilepsy (confusion and muscle jerks) that were not attributed to cefepime-toxicity until plasma levels were disclosed to the caretakers and symptoms resolved promptly after drug arrest. CONCLUSIONS: These empirical results confirm the suspected risks of hidden side-effects and inappropriate PK/PD parameters (for pathogens with upper-limit MICs) in a population of ICU adult patients. Moreover, it identifies a safety and efficacy window for cefepime doses of 2 g every 12 hours in patients with a CLCr >or= 50 ml/minute infected by pathogens with cefepime MICs <or= 4 mg/l. On the other hand, prompt monitoring of cefepime plasma levels should be considered in case of lower CLCr or greater MICs.

Minimal clinically meaningful differences for the EORTC QLQ-C30 and EORTC QLQ-BN20 scales in brain cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the smallest changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) scores in the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire core 30 and the Brain Cancer Module (QLQ-BN20), which could be considered as clinically meaningful in brain cancer patients. Materials and methods: World Health Organisation performance status (PS) and mini-mental state examination (MMSE) were used as clinical anchors appropriate to related subscales to determine the minimal clinically important differences (MCIDs) in HRQoL change scores (range 0-100) in the QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BN20. A threshold of 0.2 standard deviation (SD) (small effect) was used to exclude anchor-based MCID estimates considered too small to inform interpretation. RESULTS: Based on PS, our findings support the following integer estimates of the MCID for improvement and deterioration, respectively: physical (6, 9), role (14, 12), and cognitive functioning (8, 8); global health status (7, 4*), fatigue (12, 9), and motor dysfunction (4*, 5). Anchoring with MMSE, cognitive functioning MCID estimates for improvement and deterioration were (11, 2*) and for communication deficit were (9, 7). Estimates with asterisks were <0.2 SD and were excluded from our MCID range of 5-14. CONCLUSION: These estimates can help clinicians evaluate changes in HRQoL over time, assess the value of a health care intervention and can be useful in determining sample sizes in designing future clinical trials.

Linear relations between writhe and minimal crossing number in Conway families of ideal knots and links

We showed earlier how to predict the writhe of any rational knot or link in its ideal geometric configuration, or equivalently the average of the 3D writhe over statistical ensembles of random configurations of a given knot or link (Cerf and Stasiak 2000 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 97 3795). There is no general relation between the minimal crossing number of a knot and the writhe of its ideal geometric configuration. However, within individual families of knots linear relations between minimal crossing number and writhe were observed (Katritch et al 1996 Nature 384 142). Here we present a method that allows us to express the writhe as a linear function of the minimal crossing number within Conway families of knots and links in their ideal configuration. The slope of the lines and the shift between any two lines with the same

Prothèse totale de la hanche par voie antérieure "mini-invasive" [Total hip arthroplasty through anterior "minimal invasive" approach].

Total hip replacement has seen a tremendous development and has become one of the most successful surgical interventions in orthopaedics. While during the first decades of development of total hip arthroplasty the fixation of the implant into the bone was the main concern, the focus has shifted towards surgical technique and soft tissue handling. In order to avoid permanent soft tissue damage, muscular dysfunction and concerns in regards to cosmetics, minimal invasive and anatomic approaches have been developed. We here provide a short overview on various methods of total hip replacements and we describe our technique through a minimal invasive direct anterior approach. While muscle and nerve damage is minimal, this technique allows for a rapid rehabilitation and is associated with an excellent functional outcome and a minimal risk for dislocation.