An empirical investigation on firm-level performance of cross border mergers and acquisitions

This empirical study investigates the performance of cross border M&A. The first stage is to identify the determinants of making cross border M&A complete. One focus here is to extend the existing empirical evidence in the field of cross border M&A and exploit the likelihood of M&A from a different perspective. Given the determinants of cross border M&A completions, the second stage is to investigate the effects of cross border M&A on post-acquisition firm performance for both targets and acquirers. The thesis exploits a hitherto unused data base, which consists of those firms that are rumoured to be undertaking M&A, and then follow the deal to completion or abandonment. This approach highlights a number of limitations to the previous literature, which relies on statistical methodology to identify potential but non-existent mergers. This thesis changes some conventional understanding for M&A activity. Cross border M&A activity is underpinned by various motives such as synergy, management discipline, and acquisition of complementary resources. Traditionally, it is believed that these motives will boost the international M&A activity and improve firm performance after takeovers. However, this thesis shows that such factors based on these motives as acquirer’s profitability and liquidity and target’s intangible resource actually deter the completion of cross border M&A in the period of 2002-2011. The overall finding suggests that the cross border M&A is the efficiency-seeking activity rather than the resource-seeking activity. Furthermore, compared with firms in takeover rumours, the completion of M&A lowers firm performance. More specifically, the difficulties in transfer of competitive advantages and integration of strategic assets lead to low firm performance in terms of productivity. Besides, firms cannot realise the synergistic effect and managerial disciplinary effect once a cross border M&A is completed, which suggests a low post-acquisition profitability level.

Timing and economic value of mergers and acquisitions

Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Business Administration

A review of forecast error covariance statistics in atmospheric variational data assimilation. I: Characteristics and measurements of forecast error covariances

Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market

This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.

Metodologías de valoración de empresas

La valoración de una empresa como sistema dinámico es bastante compleja, los diferentes modelos o métodos de valoración son una aproximación teórica y por consiguiente simplificadora de la realidad. Dichos modelos, se aproximan mediante supuestos o premisas estadísticas que nos permiten hacer dicha simplificación, ejemplos de estos, son el comportamiento del inversionista o la eficiencia del mercado. Bajo el marco de un mercado emergente, este proceso presenta de indistinta forma retos paracualquier método de valoración, dado a que el mercado no obedece a los paradigmas tradicionales. Lo anterior hace referencia a que la valoración es aún más compleja, dado que los inversionistas se enfrentan a mayores riesgos y obstáculos. Así mismo, a medida que las economías se globalizan y el capital es más móvil, la valoración tomaráaún más importancia en el contexto citado. Este trabajo de gradopretende recopilar y analizar los diferentes métodos de valoración, además de identificar y aplicar aquellos que se reconocen como “buenas prácticas”. Este proceso se llevó a cabo para una de las empresas más importantes de Colombia, donde fundamentalmente se consideró el contexto de mercado emergente y específicamente el sector petrolero, como criterios para la aplicación del tradicional DCF y el práctico R&V.

Can wavelets improve the representation of forecast error covariances in variational data assimilation?

Two wavelet-based control variable transform schemes are described and are used to model some important features of forecast error statistics for use in variational data assimilation. The first is a conventional wavelet scheme and the other is an approximation of it. Their ability to capture the position and scale-dependent aspects of covariance structures is tested in a two-dimensional latitude-height context. This is done by comparing the covariance structures implied by the wavelet schemes with those found from the explicit forecast error covariance matrix, and with a non-wavelet- based covariance scheme used currently in an operational assimilation scheme. Qualitatively, the wavelet-based schemes show potential at modeling forecast error statistics well without giving preference to either position or scale-dependent aspects. The degree of spectral representation can be controlled by changing the number of spectral bands in the schemes, and the least number of bands that achieves adequate results is found for the model domain used. Evidence is found of a trade-off between the localization of features in positional and spectral spaces when the number of bands is changed. By examining implied covariance diagnostics, the wavelet-based schemes are found, on the whole, to give results that are closer to diagnostics found from the explicit matrix than from the nonwavelet scheme. Even though the nature of the covariances has the right qualities in spectral space, variances are found to be too low at some wavenumbers and vertical correlation length scales are found to be too long at most scales. The wavelet schemes are found to be good at resolving variations in position and scale-dependent horizontal length scales, although the length scales reproduced are usually too short. The second of the wavelet-based schemes is often found to be better than the first in some important respects, but, unlike the first, it has no exact inverse transform.

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed.

A method for merging flow-dependent forecast error statistics from an ensemble with static statistics for use in high resolution variational data assimilation

The background error covariance matrix, B, is often used in variational data assimilation for numerical weather prediction as a static and hence poor approximation to the fully dynamic forecast error covariance matrix, Pf. In this paper the concept of an Ensemble Reduced Rank Kalman Filter (EnRRKF) is outlined. In the EnRRKF the forecast error statistics in a subspace defined by an ensemble of states forecast by the dynamic model are found. These statistics are merged in a formal way with the static statistics, which apply in the remainder of the space. The combined statistics may then be used in a variational data assimilation setting. It is hoped that the nonlinear error growth of small-scale weather systems will be accurately captured by the EnRRKF, to produce accurate analyses and ultimately improved forecasts of extreme events.

Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure

Diabatic processes can alter Rossby wave structure; consequently errors arising from model processes propagate downstream. However, the chaotic spread of forecasts from initial condition uncertainty renders it difficult to trace back from root mean square forecast errors to model errors. Here diagnostics unaffected by phase errors are used, enabling investigation of systematic errors in Rossby waves in winter-season forecasts from three operational centers. Tropopause sharpness adjacent to ridges decreases with forecast lead time. It depends strongly on model resolution, even though models are examined on a common grid. Rossby wave amplitude reduces with lead time up to about five days, consistent with under-representation of diabatic modification and transport of air from the lower troposphere into upper-tropospheric ridges, and with too weak humidity gradients across the tropopause. However, amplitude also decreases when resolution is decreased. Further work is necessary to isolate the contribution from errors in the representation of diabatic processes.

Has Deregulation Affected Births, Deaths, and Marriages in the U.S. Commercial Banking Industry?

Regulatory change not seen since the Great Depression swept the U.S. banking industry beginning in the early 1980s and culminating with the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994. Banking analysts anticipated dramatic consolidation with large numbers of mergers and acquisitions. Less well documented, but equally important, was the continuing entry of new banks, tempering the decline in the overall number of banking institutions. This paper examines whether deregulation affected bank new-charter (birth), failure (death), and merger (marriage) rates during the 1980s and 1990s after controlling for bank performance and state economic activity. We find evidence that intrastate deregulation stimulated births and marriages, but not deaths. Moreover, we find little evidence that interstate deregulation affected births, deaths, or marriages, except that the marriage rate rose after the implementation of the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act. Finally, pair-wise temporal causality tests among births, deaths, and marriages show that mergers temporally lead new charters and that failures lead mergers (a demonstration effect).

Has Deregulation Affected Births, Deaths, and Marriages in the U.S. Commercial Banking Industry?

Regulatory change not seen since the Great Depression swept the U.S. banking industry beginning in the early 1980s and culminating with the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994. Banking analysts anticipated dramatic consolidation with large numbers of mergers and acquisitions. Less well documented, but equally important, was the continuing entry of new banks, tempering the decline in the overall number of banking institutions. This paper examines whether deregulation affected bank new-charter, failure, and merger rates during the 1980s and 1990s after controlling for bank performance and state economic activity. We find evidence that intrastate deregulation stimulated new charters and mergers, but not failures. Moreover, we find little evidence that interstate deregulation affected new charters, failures, or mergers.

Deregulation and Structural Change in the U.S. Commercial Banking Industry

Regulatory change not seen since the Great Depression swept the U.S. banking industry beginning in the early 1980s and culminated with the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994. Banking analysts anticipated dramatic consolidation with large numbers of mergers and acquisitions. Some expressed concern about the long-term health of the smaller community banks. This paper describes and discusses the actual evolution of the U.S. banking industry over the past two decades, using the 1976 to 1998 Report of Condition and Income (Call Report) and merger data recently posted on the web site of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Among several results, more permissive interstate banking and branching regulation significantly associates with higher merger rates, with lower net entry rates, and with higher concentration within states. Interestingly, more permissive intrastate banking and branching regulation only associates with higher concentration.

Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption in the EU Level the International Playing Field Between Foreign and Domestic Analysts? ACES Working Papers, October 2011

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) have been promoted as a global set of financial reporting standards that will help integrate global capital markets. We examine whether the mandatory European-wide adoption of IFRS in 2005 improved the forecast accuracy for foreign analysts relative to that of domestic analysts. We find that, on average, foreign analysts experience no incremental improvement in forecast accuracy relative to domestic analysts. However, we find that those foreign analysts who are familiar with IFRS do experience an incremental improvement in forecast accuracy relative to domestic analysts. We also find that this incremental improvement in forecast accuracy relative to domestic analysts is concentrated among firms domiciled in countries with both strong enforcement regimes and domestic accounting standards that differ significantly from IFRS. Our results highlight that both familiarity with IFRS and the quality of countries' enforcement environments play key roles in determining the extent to which IFRS adoption can reduce information asymmetry between foreign and domestic analysts.

Cultural differences and postmerger problems: Misconceptions and cognitive simplifications.

Researchers and practitioners have increasingly explained post-merger organizational problems with cultural differences, especially in the context of cross-border mergers and acquisitions. It is suggested here that cultural differences have great explanatory power in the context of post-merger change processes. There are, however, problems with a number of superficial cultural conceptions that are common in research in this area and in managerial rhetoric. This critical article provocatively delineates misconceptions widely held by researchers and practitioners in this field, which not only disregard cultural differentiation, fragmentation, inconsistencies and ambiguities, but further, illustrate a lack of understanding of cultural permeability and embeddedness in the environment, an overemphasis on abstract values and lack of attention to organizational practices, an overemphasis on initial structural differences and lack of attention to the new cultural layer, a lack of recognition of the political dimensions and a failure to recognize cultural differences as sources of value and learning. In this article, the theoretical problems associated with these misconceptions are examined and new conceptual perspectives suggested. The risks at stake for decision makers are also discussed.