A Mammalian Circadian Clock Model Incorporating Daytime Expression Elements

Models of the mammalian clock have traditionally been based around two feedback loops-the self-repression of Per/Cry by interfering with activation by BMAL/CLOCK, and the repression of Bmal/Clock by the REV-ERB proteins. Recent experimental evidence suggests that the D-box, a transcription factor binding site associated with daytime expression, plays a larger role in clock function than has previously been understood. We present a simplified clock model that highlights the role of the D-box and illustrate an approach for finding maximum-entropy ensembles of model parameters, given experimentally imposed constraints. Parameter variability can be mitigated using prior probability distributions derived from genome-wide studies of cellular kinetics. Our model reproduces predictions concerning the dual regulation of Cry1 by the D-box and Rev-ErbA/ROR response element (RRE) promoter elements and allows for ensemble-based predictions of phase response curves (PRCs). Nonphotic signals such as Neuropeptide Y (NPY) may act by promoting Cry1 expression, whereas photic signals likely act by stimulating expression from the E/E' box. Ensemble generation with parameter probability restraints reveals more about a model's behavior than a single optimal parameter set.

The role of environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Japanese encephalitis in mainland China

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most common cause of viral encephalitis and an important public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China where 50% of global cases are notified. To explore the association between environmental factors and human JE cases and identify the high risk areas for JE transmission in China, we used annual notified data on JE cases at the center of administrative township and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 1 km×1 km from 2005 to 2011 to construct models using ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches based on maximum entropy. These models were then validated by overlaying reported human JE case localities from 2006 to 2012 onto each prediction map. ENMs had good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.82-0.91, and low extrinsic omission rate of 5.44-7.42%. Resulting maps showed JE being presented extensively throughout southwestern and central China, with local spatial variations in probability influenced by minimum temperatures, human population density, mean temperatures, and elevation, with contribution of 17.94%-38.37%, 15.47%-21.82%, 3.86%-21.22%, and 12.05%-16.02%, respectively. Approximately 60% of JE cases occurred in predicted high risk areas, which covered less than 6% of areas in mainland China. Our findings will help inform optimal geographical allocation of the limited resources available for JE prevention and control in China, find hidden high-risk areas, and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

Statistical analysis of the position of the monsoon trough

Using surface charts at 0330GMT, the movement df the monsoon trough during the months June to September 1990 al two fixed longitudes, namely 79 degrees E and 85 degrees E, is studied. The probability distribution of trough position shows that the median, mean and mode occur at progressively more northern latitudes, especially at 85 degrees E, with a pronounced mode that is close to the northern-most limit reached by the trough. A spectral analysis of the fluctuating latitudinal position of the trough is carried out using FFT and the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM). Both methods show significant peaks around 7.5 and 2.6 days, and a less significant one around 40-50 days. The two peaks at the shorter period are more prominent at the eastern longitude. MEM shows an additional peak around 15 days. A study of the weather systems that occurred during the season shows them to have a duration around 3 days and an interval between systems of around 9 days, suggesting a possible correlation with the dominant short periods observed in the spectrum of trough position.

Practical Algorithms For Mean Velocity Estimation In Pulse Doppler Weather Radars Using A Small Number Of Samples

Doppler weather radars with fast scanning rates must estimate spectral moments based on a small number of echo samples. This paper concerns the estimation of mean Doppler velocity in a coherent radar using a short complex time series. Specific results are presented based on 16 samples. A wide range of signal-to-noise ratios are considered, and attention is given to ease of implementation. It is shown that FFT estimators fare poorly in low SNR and/or high spectrum-width situations. Several variants of a vector pulse-pair processor are postulated and an algorithm is developed for the resolution of phase angle ambiguity. This processor is found to be better than conventional processors at very low SNR values. A feasible approximation to the maximum entropy estimator is derived as well as a technique utilizing the maximization of the periodogram. It is found that a vector pulse-pair processor operating with four lags for clear air observation and a single lag (pulse-pair mode) for storm observation may be a good way to estimate Doppler velocities over the entire gamut of weather phenomena.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Potential Distribution and Risk Assessment of an Invasive Plant Species: A Case Study of Hymenachne amplexicaulis in Australia

Given the limited resources available for weed management, a strategic approach is required to give the best bang for your buck. The current study incorporates: (1) a model ensemble approach to identify areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding a species invasive potential, (2) current distribution of the invaded species, and (3) connectivity of systems to identify target regions and focus efforts for more effective management. Uncertainty in the prediction of suitable habitat for H. amplexicaulis (study species) in Australia was addressed in an ensemble-forecasting approach to compare distributional scenarios from four models (CLIMATCH; CLIMEX; boosted regression trees [BRT]; maximum entropy [Maxent]). Models were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data. Catchment risk was determined through incorporating habitat suitability, the current abundance and distribution of H. amplexicaulis, and catchment connectivity. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches. Despite these differences a number of catchments in northern, central, and southern Australia were identified as high risk of invasion or further spread by all models suggesting they should be given priority for the management of H. amplexicaulis. The study also highlighted the utility of ensemble approaches in indentifying areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding the species invasive potential.

Multicarrier analysis of magnetotransport data at low and high electric fields

We present some results on multicarrier analysis of magnetotransport data, Both synthetic as well as data from narrow gap Hg0.8Cd0.2Te samples are used to demonstrate applicability of various algorithms vs. nonlinear least square fitting, Quantitative Mobility Spectrum Analysis (QMSA) and Maximum Entropy Mobility Spectrum Analysis (MEMSA). Comments are made from our experience oil these algorithms, and, on the inversion procedure from experimental R/sigma-B to S-mu specifically with least square fitting as an example. Amongst the conclusions drawn are: (i) Experimentally measured resistivity (R-xx, R-xy) should also be used instead of just the inverted conductivity (sigma(xx), sigma(xy)) to fit data to semiclassical expressions for better fits especially at higher B. (ii) High magnetic field is necessary to extract low mobility carrier parameters. (iii) Provided the error in data is not large, better estimates to carrier parameters of remaining carrier species can be obtained at any stage by subtracting highest mobility carrier contribution to sigma from the experimental data and fitting with the remaining carriers. (iv)Even in presence of high electric field, an approximate multicarrier expression can be used to guess the carrier mobilities and their variations before solving the full Boltzmann equation.

Macroscopic approach to multichannel disordered conductors

We present a theory of multichannel disordered conductors by directly studying the statistical distribution of the transfer matrix for the full system. The theory is based on the general properties of the scattering system: flux conservation, time-reversal invariance, and the appropriate combination requirement when two wires are put together. The distribution associated with systems of very small length is then selected on the basis of a maximum-entropy criterion; a fixed value is assumed for the diffusion coefficient that characterizes the evolution of the distribution as the length increases. We obtain a diffusion equation for the probability distribution and compute the average of a few relevant quantities.

Optimization of two-dimensional NMR by matched accumulation

It is well known that in the time-domain acquisition of NMR data, signal-to-noise (S/N) improves as the square root of the number of transients accumulated. However, the amplitude of the measured signal varies during the time of detection, having a functional form dependent on the coherence detected. Matching the time spent signal averaging to the expected amplitude of the signal observed should also improve the detected signal-to-noise. Following this reasoning, Barna et al. (J Magn. Reson.75, 384, 1987) demonstrated the utility of exponential sampling in one- and two-dimensional NMR, using maximum-entropy methods to analyze the data. It is proposed here that for two-dimensional experiments the exponential sampling be replaced by exponential averaging. The data thus collected can be analyzed by standard fast-Fourier-transform routines. We demonstrate the utility of exponential averaging in 2D NOESY spectra of the protein ubiquitin, in which an enhanced SIN is observed. It is also shown that the method acquires delayed double-quantum-filtered COSY without phase distortion.

Magnetocaloric effect in La1-xSrxCoO3 (0.05 <= x <= 0.40)

We report studies of magnetocaloric effect in lanthanum cobaltate doped with different Sr-concentrations, La1-xSrxCoO3 (0.05 less than or equal to x less than or equal to 0.4). The study has revealed that La0.6Sr0.4CoO3, which exhibits a moderately large value of maximum entropy change of about 1.45 J/kg/K in 1.5 T DC-fieid around its Curie temperature (of 235 K), can be used as an active magnetic refrigerant (AMR) material at similar to 2.35 K. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. Al rights reserved.

Predictive distribution modeling for rare Himalayan medicinal plant Berberis aristata DC

Predictive distribution modelling of Berberis aristata DC, a rare threatened plant with high medicinal values has been done with an aim to understand its potential distribution zones in Indian Himalayan region. Bioclimatic and topographic variables were used to develop the distribution model with the help of three different algorithms viz. GeneticAlgorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP), Bioclim and Maximum entroys(MaxEnt). Maximum entropy has predicted wider potential distribution (10.36%) compared to GARP (4.63%) and Bioclim (2.44%). Validation confirms that these outputs are comparable to the present distribution pattern of the B. atistata. This exercise highlights that this species favours Western Himalaya. However, GARP and MaxEnt's prediction of Eastern Himalayan states (i.e. Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur) are also identified as potential occurrence places require further exploration.

Diversity in ranking via resistive graph centers

Users can rarely reveal their information need in full detail to a search engine within 1--2 words, so search engines need to "hedge their bets" and present diverse results within the precious 10 response slots. Diversity in ranking is of much recent interest. Most existing solutions estimate the marginal utility of an item given a set of items already in the response, and then use variants of greedy set cover. Others design graphs with the items as nodes and choose diverse items based on visit rates (PageRank). Here we introduce a radically new and natural formulation of diversity as finding centers in resistive graphs. Unlike in PageRank, we do not specify the edge resistances (equivalently, conductances) and ask for node visit rates. Instead, we look for a sparse set of center nodes so that the effective conductance from the center to the rest of the graph has maximum entropy. We give a cogent semantic justification for turning PageRank thus on its head. In marked deviation from prior work, our edge resistances are learnt from training data. Inference and learning are NP-hard, but we give practical solutions. In extensive experiments with subtopic retrieval, social network search, and document summarization, our approach convincingly surpasses recently-published diversity algorithms like subtopic cover, max-marginal relevance (MMR), Grasshopper, DivRank, and SVMdiv.

Quantum entropic ambiguities: Ethylene

In a quantum system, there may be many density matrices associated with a state on an algebra of observables. For each density matrix, one can compute its entropy. These are, in general, different. Therefore, one reaches the remarkable possibility that there may be many entropies for a given state R. Sorkin (private communication)]. This ambiguity in entropy can often be traced to a gauge symmetry emergent from the nontrivial topological character of the configuration space of the underlying system. It can also happen in finite-dimensional matrix models. In the present work, we discuss this entropy ambiguity and its consequences for an ethylene molecule. This is a very simple and well-known system, where these notions can be put to tests. Of particular interest in this discussion is the fact that the change of the density matrix with the corresponding entropy increase drives the system towards the maximally disordered state with maximum entropy, where Boltzman's formula applies. Besides its intrinsic conceptual interest, the simplicity of this model can serve as an introduction to a similar discussion of systems such as colored monopoles and the breaking of color symmetry.