A "Beyond WTO" Scenario for Swiss Agriculture: Consequences for Income Generation and the Provision of Public Goods

The conclusion of the Doha Round negotiations is likely to influence Swiss agricultural policy substantially. The same goes for a free trade agreement in agriculture and food with the European Communities. Even though neither of them will bring about duty-free and quota-free market access, or restrict domestic support measures to green box compatible support, both would represent a big step in that direction. There is no empirical evidence on the effect of such a counterfactual scenario for Swiss agriculture. We therefore use a normative mathematical programming model to illustrate possible effects for agricultural production and the corresponding agricultural income. Moreover, we discuss the results with respect to the provision of public goods under the assumption of continuing green box-compatible direct payments. The aim of our article is to bring more transparency into the discussion on the effects of freer and less distorted trade on the income generation by a multifunctional agriculture. The article will be organized as follows. In the first Section we specify the background of our study. In the second section, we focus on the problem statement and our research questions. In Section 3, we describe in detail a counterfactual scenario of “duty-free, quota-free and price support-free” agriculture from an economic as well as a legal perspective. Our methodology and the results are presented in Section 4 and 5 respectively. In Section 6, we discuss our results with respect to economic and legal aspects of multifunctional agriculture.

Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity.

Some aspects of lubrication in heavy regimes: thermal effects, stability and turbulence

In this work, a combination of numerical methods applied to thermohydrodynamic lubrication problems with cavitation is presented. It should be emphasized the difficulty of the nonlinear mathematical coupled model involving a free boundary problem, but also the simplicity of the algorithms employed to solve it. So, finite element discretizations for the hydrodynamic and thermal equations combined with upwind techniques for the convection terms and duality methods for nonlinear features are proposed. Additionally, a model describing the movement of the shaft is provided. Considering the shaft as a rigid body this model will consist of an ODE system relating acceleration of the center of gravity and external and pressure loads. The numerical experiments of mechanical stability try to clarify the position of the neutral stability curve. Finally, a rotating machine for ship propulsion involving both axial and radial bearings operating with nonconventional lubricants (seawater to avoid environmental pollution) is analyzed by using laminar and turbulent inertial flows.

Characterisation of the operation & maintenance phase in PV rural electrification programmes

Con 1.300 millones de personas en el mundo sin acceso a la electricidad (la mayoría en entornos rurales de países empobrecidos), la energía solar fotovoltaica constituye una solución viable técnica y económicamente para electrificar las zonas más remotas del planeta donde las redes eléctricas convencionales no llegan. Casi todos los países en el mundo han desarrollado algún tipo de programa de electrificación fotovoltaica rural durante los últimos 40 años, principalmente los países más pobres, donde a través de diferentes modelos de financiación, se han instalado millones de sistemas solares domiciliarios (pequeños sistemas fotovoltaicos para uso doméstico). Durante este largo período, se han ido superando muchas barreras, como la mejora de la calidad de los sistemas fotovoltaicos, la reducción de costes, la optimización del diseño y del dimensionado de los sistemas, la disponibilidad financiera para implantar programas de electrificación rural, etc. Gracias a esto, la electrificación rural descentralizada ha experimentado recientemente un salto de escala caracterizada por la implantación de grandes programas con miles de sistemas solares domiciliarios e integrando largos períodos de mantenimiento. Muchos de estos grandes programas se están llevando a cabo con limitado éxito, ya que generalmente parten de supuestos e hipótesis poco contrastadas con la realidad, comprometiendo así un retorno económico que permita el desarrollo de esta actividad a largo plazo. En este escenario surge un nuevo reto: el de cómo garantizar la sostenibilidad de los grandes programas de electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Se argumenta que la principal causa de esta falta de rentabilidad es el imprevisto alto coste de la fase de operación y mantenimiento. Cuestiones clave tales como la estructura de costes de operación y mantenimiento o la fiabilidad de los componentes del sistema fotovoltaico no están bien caracterizados hoy en día. Esta situación limita la capacidad de diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento capaces de asegurar la sostenibilidad y la rentabilidad del servicio de operación y mantenimiento en estos programas. Esta tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo responder a estas cuestiones. Se ha realizado varios estudios sobre la base de un gran programa de electrificación rural fotovoltaica real llevado a cabo en Marruecos con más de 13.000 sistemas solares domiciliarios instalados. Sobre la base de este programa se ha hecho una evaluación en profundidad de la fiabilidad de los sistemas solares a partir de los datos de mantenimiento recogidos durante 5 años con más de 80.000 inputs. Los resultados han permitido establecer las funciones de fiabilidad de los equipos tal y como se comportan en condiciones reales de operación, las tasas de fallos y los tiempos medios hasta el fallo para los principales componentes del sistema, siendo este el primer caso de divulgación de resultados de este tipo en el campo de la electrificación rural fotovoltaica. Los dos principales componentes del sistema solar domiciliario, la batería y el módulo fotovoltaico, han sido analizados en campo a través de una muestra de 41 sistemas trabajando en condiciones reales pertenecientes al programa solar marroquí. Por un lado se ha estudiado la degradación de la capacidad de las baterías y por otro la degradación de potencia de los módulos fotovoltaicos. En el caso de las baterías, los resultados nos han permitido caracterizar la curva de degradación en capacidad llegando a obtener una propuesta de nueva definición del umbral de vida útil de las baterías en electrificación rural. También sobre la base del programa solar de Marruecos se ha llevado a cabo un estudio de caracterización de los costes reales de operación y mantenimiento a partir de la base de datos de contabilidad del programa registrados durante 5 años. Los resultados del estudio han permitido definir cuáles son costes que más incidencia tienen en el coste global. Se han obtenido los costes unitarios por sistema instalado y se han calculado los montantes de las cuotas de mantenimiento de los usuarios para garantizar la rentabilidad de la operación y mantenimiento. Finalmente, se propone un modelo de optimización matemática para diseñar estructuras de mantenimiento basado en los resultados de los estudios anteriores. La herramienta, elaborada mediante programación lineal entera mixta, se ha aplicado al programa marroquí con el fin de validar el modelo propuesto. ABSTRACT With 1,300 million people worldwide deprived of access to electricity (mostly in rural environments), photovoltaic solar energy has proven to be a cost‐effective solution and the only hope for electrifying the most remote inhabitants of the planet, where conventional electric grids do not reach because they are unaffordable. Almost all countries in the world have had some kind of rural photovoltaic electrification programme during the past 40 years, mainly the poorer countries, where through different organizational models, millions of solar home systems (small photovoltaic systems for domestic use) have been installed. During this long period, many barriers have been overcome, such as quality enhancement, cost reduction, the optimization of designing and sizing, financial availability, etc. Thanks to this, decentralized rural electrification has recently experienced a change of scale characterized by new programmes with thousands of solar home systems and long maintenance periods. Many of these large programmes are being developed with limited success, as they have generally been based on assumptions that do not correspond to reality, compromising the economic return that allows long term activity. In this scenario a new challenge emerges, which approaches the sustainability of large programmes. It is argued that the main cause of unprofitability is the unexpected high cost of the operation and maintenance of the solar systems. In fact, the lack of a paradigm in decentralized rural services has led to many private companies to carry out decentralized electrification programmes blindly. Issues such as the operation and maintenance cost structure or the reliability of the solar home system components have still not been characterized. This situation does not allow optimized maintenance structure to be designed to assure the sustainability and profitability of the operation and maintenance service. This PhD thesis aims to respond to these needs. Several studies have been carried out based on a real and large photovoltaic rural electrification programme carried out in Morocco with more than 13,000 solar home systems. An in‐depth reliability assessment has been made from a 5‐year maintenance database with more than 80,000 maintenance inputs. The results have allowed us to establish the real reliability functions, the failure rate and the main time to failure of the main components of the system, reporting these findings for the first time in the field of rural electrification. Both in‐field experiments on the capacity degradation of batteries and power degradation of photovoltaic modules have been carried out. During the experiments both samples of batteries and modules were operating under real conditions integrated into the solar home systems of the Moroccan programme. In the case of the batteries, the results have enabled us to obtain a proposal of definition of death of batteries in rural electrification. A cost assessment of the Moroccan experience based on a 5‐year accounting database has been carried out to characterize the cost structure of the programme. The results have allowed the major costs of the photovoltaic electrification to be defined. The overall cost ratio per installed system has been calculated together with the necessary fees that users would have to pay to make the operation and maintenance affordable. Finally, a mathematical optimization model has been proposed to design maintenance structures based on the previous study results. The tool has been applied to the Moroccan programme with the aim of validating the model.

Optimization of water procurement decisions in an irrigation district: the role of option contracts

Water supply instability is one of the main risks faced by irrigation districts and farmers. Water procurement decision optimisation is essential in order to increase supply reliability and reduce costs. Water markets, such as spot purchases or water supply option contracts, can make this decision process more flexible. We analyse the potential interest in an option contract for an irrigation district that has access to several water sources. We apply a stochastic recursive mathematical programming model to simulate the water procurement decisions of an irrigation district?s board operating in a context of water supply uncertainty in south-eastern Spain. We analyse what role different option contracts could play in securing its water supply. Results suggest that the irrigation district would be willing to accept the proposed option contract in most cases subject to realistic values of the option contract financial terms. Of nine different water sources, desalination and the option contract are the main substitutes, where the use of either depends on the contract parameters. The contract premium and optioned volume are the variables that have a greater impact on the irrigation district?s decisions. Key words: Segura Basin, stochastic recursive programming, water markets, water supply option contract, water supply risk.

Retrofit of heat exchanger networks with pressure recovery of process streams at sub-ambient conditions

This paper presents a new mathematical programming model for the retrofit of heat exchanger networks (HENs), wherein the pressure recovery of process streams is conducted to enhance heat integration. Particularly applied to cryogenic processes, HENs retrofit with combined heat and work integration is mainly aimed at reducing the use of expensive cold services. The proposed multi-stage superstructure allows the increment of the existing heat transfer area, as well as the use of new equipment for both heat exchange and pressure manipulation. The pressure recovery of streams is carried out simultaneously with the HEN design, such that the process conditions (streams pressure and temperature) are variables of optimization. The mathematical model is formulated using generalized disjunctive programming (GDP) and is optimized via mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP), through the minimization of the retrofit total annualized cost, considering the turbine and compressor coupling with a helper motor. Three case studies are performed to assess the accuracy of the developed approach, including a real industrial example related to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production. The results show that the pressure recovery of streams is efficient for energy savings and, consequently, for decreasing the HEN retrofit total cost especially in sub-ambient processes.

Farm/Household-Level Simulation: Results of Testing Policy and Other Scenarios. Factor Markets Working Document No. 54, June 2013

Among the different production factors, land is the one that most often limits farm development and one of the most studied. The connection between policy and other context variables and land markets is at the core of the policy debate, including the present reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. The proposal of the latter has been published in October 2011 and in Italy it will include the switch of the payment regime from an historical to a regional basis. The authors’ objective is to simulate the impact of the proposed policy reform on the land market, particularly on land values and propensity to transaction. They combine insights and data from a farm household investment model revised and extended in order to simulate the demand curve for land in different policy scenarios and a survey of farmers stated intention carried out in the province of Bologna (Italy) in 2012. Based on these results, the authors calibrate a mathematical programming model of land market exchanges for the province of Bologna and use this model form simulation. The results of the model largely corroborate the results from the survey and both hint at a relevant reaction of the land demand and supply to the shift from the historical to the regionalised payments. As effect, the regionalisation would result in increased rental prices and in a tendency to the re-allocation of land.

Optimization and Machine Learning Frameworks for Complex Network Analysis

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Consistency of epidemiologic estimates

Background: The epidemiology of a disease describes numbers of people becoming incident, being prevalent, recovering, surviving, and dying from the disease or from other causes. As a matter of accounting principle, the inflow, stock, and outflows must be compatible, and if we could observe completely every person involved, the epidemiologic estimates describing the disease would be consistent. Lack of consistency is an indicator for possible measurement error. Methods: We examined the consistency of estimates of incidence, prevalence, and excess mortality of dementia from the Rotterdam Study. We used the incidence and excess mortality estimates to calculate with a mathematical disease model a predicted prevalence, and compared the predicted to the observed prevalence. Results: Predicted prevalence is in most age groups lower than observed, and the difference between them is significant for some age groups. Conclusions: The observed discrepancy could be due to overestimates of prevalence or excess mortality, or an underestimate of incidence, or a combination of all three. We conclude from an analysis of possible causes that it is not possible to say which contributes most to the discrepancy. Estimating dementia incidence in an aging cohort presents a dilemma: with a short follow-up border-line incident cases are easily missed, and with longer follow-up measurement problems increase due to the associated aging of the cohort. Checking for consistency is a useful strategy to signal possible measurement error, but some sources of error may be impossible to avoid.

Advanced Techniques for Image Quality Assessment of Modern X-ray Computed Tomography Systems

X-ray computed tomography (CT) imaging constitutes one of the most widely used diagnostic tools in radiology today with nearly 85 million CT examinations performed in the U.S in 2011. CT imparts a relatively high amount of radiation dose to the patient compared to other x-ray imaging modalities and as a result of this fact, coupled with its popularity, CT is currently the single largest source of medical radiation exposure to the U.S. population. For this reason, there is a critical need to optimize CT examinations such that the dose is minimized while the quality of the CT images is not degraded. This optimization can be difficult to achieve due to the relationship between dose and image quality. All things being held equal, reducing the dose degrades image quality and can impact the diagnostic value of the CT examination.

A recent push from the medical and scientific community towards using lower doses has spawned new dose reduction technologies such as automatic exposure control (i.e., tube current modulation) and iterative reconstruction algorithms. In theory, these technologies could allow for scanning at reduced doses while maintaining the image quality of the exam at an acceptable level. Therefore, there is a scientific need to establish the dose reduction potential of these new technologies in an objective and rigorous manner. Establishing these dose reduction potentials requires precise and clinically relevant metrics of CT image quality, as well as practical and efficient methodologies to measure such metrics on real CT systems. The currently established methodologies for assessing CT image quality are not appropriate to assess modern CT scanners that have implemented those aforementioned dose reduction technologies.

Thus the purpose of this doctoral project was to develop, assess, and implement new phantoms, image quality metrics, analysis techniques, and modeling tools that are appropriate for image quality assessment of modern clinical CT systems. The project developed image quality assessment methods in the context of three distinct paradigms, (a) uniform phantoms, (b) textured phantoms, and (c) clinical images.

The work in this dissertation used the “task-based” definition of image quality. That is, image quality was broadly defined as the effectiveness by which an image can be used for its intended task. Under this definition, any assessment of image quality requires three components: (1) A well defined imaging task (e.g., detection of subtle lesions), (2) an “observer” to perform the task (e.g., a radiologists or a detection algorithm), and (3) a way to measure the observer’s performance in completing the task at hand (e.g., detection sensitivity/specificity).

First, this task-based image quality paradigm was implemented using a novel multi-sized phantom platform (with uniform background) developed specifically to assess modern CT systems (Mercury Phantom, v3.0, Duke University). A comprehensive evaluation was performed on a state-of-the-art CT system (SOMATOM Definition Force, Siemens Healthcare) in terms of noise, resolution, and detectability as a function of patient size, dose, tube energy (i.e., kVp), automatic exposure control, and reconstruction algorithm (i.e., Filtered Back-Projection– FPB vs Advanced Modeled Iterative Reconstruction– ADMIRE). A mathematical observer model (i.e., computer detection algorithm) was implemented and used as the basis of image quality comparisons. It was found that image quality increased with increasing dose and decreasing phantom size. The CT system exhibited nonlinear noise and resolution properties, especially at very low-doses, large phantom sizes, and for low-contrast objects. Objective image quality metrics generally increased with increasing dose and ADMIRE strength, and with decreasing phantom size. The ADMIRE algorithm could offer comparable image quality at reduced doses or improved image quality at the same dose (increase in detectability index by up to 163% depending on iterative strength). The use of automatic exposure control resulted in more consistent image quality with changing phantom size.

Based on those results, the dose reduction potential of ADMIRE was further assessed specifically for the task of detecting small (<=6 mm) low-contrast (<=20 HU) lesions. A new low-contrast detectability phantom (with uniform background) was designed and fabricated using a multi-material 3D printer. The phantom was imaged at multiple dose levels and images were reconstructed with FBP and ADMIRE. Human perception experiments were performed to measure the detection accuracy from FBP and ADMIRE images. It was found that ADMIRE had equivalent performance to FBP at 56% less dose.

Using the same image data as the previous study, a number of different mathematical observer models were implemented to assess which models would result in image quality metrics that best correlated with human detection performance. The models included naïve simple metrics of image quality such as contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) and more sophisticated observer models such as the non-prewhitening matched filter observer model family and the channelized Hotelling observer model family. It was found that non-prewhitening matched filter observers and the channelized Hotelling observers both correlated strongly with human performance. Conversely, CNR was found to not correlate strongly with human performance, especially when comparing different reconstruction algorithms.

The uniform background phantoms used in the previous studies provided a good first-order approximation of image quality. However, due to their simplicity and due to the complexity of iterative reconstruction algorithms, it is possible that such phantoms are not fully adequate to assess the clinical impact of iterative algorithms because patient images obviously do not have smooth uniform backgrounds. To test this hypothesis, two textured phantoms (classified as gross texture and fine texture) and a uniform phantom of similar size were built and imaged on a SOMATOM Flash scanner (Siemens Healthcare). Images were reconstructed using FBP and a Sinogram Affirmed Iterative Reconstruction (SAFIRE). Using an image subtraction technique, quantum noise was measured in all images of each phantom. It was found that in FBP, the noise was independent of the background (textured vs uniform). However, for SAFIRE, noise increased by up to 44% in the textured phantoms compared to the uniform phantom. As a result, the noise reduction from SAFIRE was found to be up to 66% in the uniform phantom but as low as 29% in the textured phantoms. Based on this result, it clear that further investigation was needed into to understand the impact that background texture has on image quality when iterative reconstruction algorithms are used.

To further investigate this phenomenon with more realistic textures, two anthropomorphic textured phantoms were designed to mimic lung vasculature and fatty soft tissue texture. The phantoms (along with a corresponding uniform phantom) were fabricated with a multi-material 3D printer and imaged on the SOMATOM Flash scanner. Scans were repeated a total of 50 times in order to get ensemble statistics of the noise. A novel method of estimating the noise power spectrum (NPS) from irregularly shaped ROIs was developed. It was found that SAFIRE images had highly locally non-stationary noise patterns with pixels near edges having higher noise than pixels in more uniform regions. Compared to FBP, SAFIRE images had 60% less noise on average in uniform regions for edge pixels, noise was between 20% higher and 40% lower. The noise texture (i.e., NPS) was also highly dependent on the background texture for SAFIRE. Therefore, it was concluded that quantum noise properties in the uniform phantoms are not representative of those in patients for iterative reconstruction algorithms and texture should be considered when assessing image quality of iterative algorithms.

The move beyond just assessing noise properties in textured phantoms towards assessing detectability, a series of new phantoms were designed specifically to measure low-contrast detectability in the presence of background texture. The textures used were optimized to match the texture in the liver regions actual patient CT images using a genetic algorithm. The so called “Clustured Lumpy Background” texture synthesis framework was used to generate the modeled texture. Three textured phantoms and a corresponding uniform phantom were fabricated with a multi-material 3D printer and imaged on the SOMATOM Flash scanner. Images were reconstructed with FBP and SAFIRE and analyzed using a multi-slice channelized Hotelling observer to measure detectability and the dose reduction potential of SAFIRE based on the uniform and textured phantoms. It was found that at the same dose, the improvement in detectability from SAFIRE (compared to FBP) was higher when measured in a uniform phantom compared to textured phantoms.

The final trajectory of this project aimed at developing methods to mathematically model lesions, as a means to help assess image quality directly from patient images. The mathematical modeling framework is first presented. The models describe a lesion’s morphology in terms of size, shape, contrast, and edge profile as an analytical equation. The models can be voxelized and inserted into patient images to create so-called “hybrid” images. These hybrid images can then be used to assess detectability or estimability with the advantage that the ground truth of the lesion morphology and location is known exactly. Based on this framework, a series of liver lesions, lung nodules, and kidney stones were modeled based on images of real lesions. The lesion models were virtually inserted into patient images to create a database of hybrid images to go along with the original database of real lesion images. ROI images from each database were assessed by radiologists in a blinded fashion to determine the realism of the hybrid images. It was found that the radiologists could not readily distinguish between real and virtual lesion images (area under the ROC curve was 0.55). This study provided evidence that the proposed mathematical lesion modeling framework could produce reasonably realistic lesion images.

Based on that result, two studies were conducted which demonstrated the utility of the lesion models. The first study used the modeling framework as a measurement tool to determine how dose and reconstruction algorithm affected the quantitative analysis of liver lesions, lung nodules, and renal stones in terms of their size, shape, attenuation, edge profile, and texture features. The same database of real lesion images used in the previous study was used for this study. That database contained images of the same patient at 2 dose levels (50% and 100%) along with 3 reconstruction algorithms from a GE 750HD CT system (GE Healthcare). The algorithms in question were FBP, Adaptive Statistical Iterative Reconstruction (ASiR), and Model-Based Iterative Reconstruction (MBIR). A total of 23 quantitative features were extracted from the lesions under each condition. It was found that both dose and reconstruction algorithm had a statistically significant effect on the feature measurements. In particular, radiation dose affected five, three, and four of the 23 features (related to lesion size, conspicuity, and pixel-value distribution) for liver lesions, lung nodules, and renal stones, respectively. MBIR significantly affected 9, 11, and 15 of the 23 features (including size, attenuation, and texture features) for liver lesions, lung nodules, and renal stones, respectively. Lesion texture was not significantly affected by radiation dose.

The second study demonstrating the utility of the lesion modeling framework focused on assessing detectability of very low-contrast liver lesions in abdominal imaging. Specifically, detectability was assessed as a function of dose and reconstruction algorithm. As part of a parallel clinical trial, images from 21 patients were collected at 6 dose levels per patient on a SOMATOM Flash scanner. Subtle liver lesion models (contrast = -15 HU) were inserted into the raw projection data from the patient scans. The projections were then reconstructed with FBP and SAFIRE (strength 5). Also, lesion-less images were reconstructed. Noise, contrast, CNR, and detectability index of an observer model (non-prewhitening matched filter) were assessed. It was found that SAFIRE reduced noise by 52%, reduced contrast by 12%, increased CNR by 87%. and increased detectability index by 65% compared to FBP. Further, a 2AFC human perception experiment was performed to assess the dose reduction potential of SAFIRE, which was found to be 22% compared to the standard of care dose.

In conclusion, this dissertation provides to the scientific community a series of new methodologies, phantoms, analysis techniques, and modeling tools that can be used to rigorously assess image quality from modern CT systems. Specifically, methods to properly evaluate iterative reconstruction have been developed and are expected to aid in the safe clinical implementation of dose reduction technologies.

Effektiviseringsmöjligheter avseende fyllnadsgrad : En jämförande analys mellan nuläge och optimerat resultat

The study aims to provide information on efficiency opportunities on SCA's northbound cassettes. It has been made by examining the capacity utilization rate on the northbound cassettes on SCA's vessels for a period of two weeks. The cargo loaded in the ports of Rotterdam and Sheerness consists of external cargo of varying shape. The cargo is shipped northbound to Holmsund and Sundsvall. Measurements have been made on the cargo to the final destinations Sundsvall, Holmsund and Finland. The measurements have been used in a mathematical optimization model created to optimize the loading of the cassettes. The model is based on placing boxes in a grid where the boxes that are placed representing the cargo and the grids representing the cassettes. The aim of the model is to reduce the number of cassettes and thereby increase the capacity utilization rate. The study resulted in an increase in capacity utilization rate for both area and volume to all destinations. The overall improvement for all cassettes examined resulted in an increase in the area capacity utilization rate by 9.02 percentage points and 5.72 percentage points for the volume capacity utilization rate. It also resulted in a decrease of 22 cassettes in total on the four voyages that were examined which indicate that there are opportunities to improve the capacity utilization rate. The study also shows that the model can be used as a basis for similar problems.

Design and development of a diagonal-airflow batch dryer for spatial drying homogeneity

Das Verfahren der Lebensmitteltrocknung wird häufig angewendet, um ein Produkt für längere Zeit haltbar zu machen. Obst und Gemüse sind aufgrund ihres hohen Wassergehalts leicht verderblich durch biochemische Vorgänge innerhalb des Produktes, nicht sachgemäße Lagerung und unzureichende Transportmöglichkeiten. Um solche Verluste zu vermeiden wird die direkte Trocknung eingesetzt, welche die älteste Methode zum langfristigen haltbarmachen ist. Diese Methode ist jedoch veraltet und kann den heutigen Herausforderungen nicht gerecht werden. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde ein neuer Chargentrockner, mit diagonalem Luftstömungskanal entlang der Länge des Trocknungsraumes und ohne Leitbleche entwickelt. Neben dem unbestreitbaren Nutzen der Verwendung von Leitblechen, erhöhen diese jedoch die Konstruktionskosten und führen auch zu einer Erhöhung des Druckverlustes. Dadurch wird im Trocknungsprozess mehr Energie verbraucht. Um eine räumlich gleichmäßige Trocknung ohne Leitbleche zu erreichen, wurden die Lebensmittelbehälter diagonal entlang der Länge des Trockners platziert. Das vorrangige Ziel des diagonalen Kanals war, die einströmende, warme Luft gleichmäßig auf das gesamte Produkt auszurichten. Die Simulation des Luftstroms wurde mit ANSYS-Fluent in der ANSYS Workbench Plattform durchgeführt. Zwei verschiedene Geometrien der Trocknungskammer, diagonal und nicht diagonal, wurden modelliert und die Ergebnisse für eine gleichmäßige Luftverteilung aus dem diagonalen Luftströmungsdesign erhalten. Es wurde eine Reihe von Experimenten durchgeführt, um das Design zu bewerten. Kartoffelscheiben dienten als Trocknungsgut. Die statistischen Ergebnisse zeigen einen guten Korrelationskoeffizienten für die Luftstromverteilung (87,09%) zwischen dem durchschnittlich vorhergesagten und der durchschnittlichen gemessenen Strömungsgeschwindigkeit. Um den Effekt der gleichmäßigen Luftverteilung auf die Veränderung der Qualität zu bewerten, wurde die Farbe des Produktes, entlang der gesamten Länge der Trocknungskammer kontaktfrei im on-line-Verfahren bestimmt. Zu diesem Zweck wurde eine Imaging-Box, bestehend aus Kamera und Beleuchtung entwickelt. Räumliche Unterschiede dieses Qualitätsparameters wurden als Kriterium gewählt, um die gleichmäßige Trocknungsqualität in der Trocknungskammer zu bewerten. Entscheidend beim Lebensmittel-Chargentrockner ist sein Energieverbrauch. Dafür wurden thermodynamische Analysen des Trockners durchgeführt. Die Energieeffizienz des Systems wurde unter den gewählten Trocknungsbedingungen mit 50,16% kalkuliert. Die durchschnittlich genutzten Energie in Form von Elektrizität zur Herstellung von 1kg getrockneter Kartoffeln wurde mit weniger als 16,24 MJ/kg und weniger als 4,78 MJ/kg Wasser zum verdampfen bei einer sehr hohen Temperatur von jeweils 65°C und Scheibendicken von 5mm kalkuliert. Die Energie- und Exergieanalysen für diagonale Chargentrockner wurden zudem mit denen anderer Chargentrockner verglichen. Die Auswahl von Trocknungstemperatur, Massenflussrate der Trocknungsluft, Trocknerkapazität und Heiztyp sind die wichtigen Parameter zur Bewertung der genutzten Energie von Chargentrocknern. Die Entwicklung des diagonalen Chargentrockners ist eine nützliche und effektive Möglichkeit um dei Trocknungshomogenität zu erhöhen. Das Design erlaubt es, das gesamte Produkt in der Trocknungskammer gleichmäßigen Luftverhältnissen auszusetzen, statt die Luft von einer Horde zur nächsten zu leiten.

Optimization models and methods for real-time transportation planning in forestry

Lors du transport du bois de la forêt vers les usines, de nombreux événements imprévus peuvent se produire, événements qui perturbent les trajets prévus (par exemple, en raison des conditions météo, des feux de forêt, de la présence de nouveaux chargements, etc.). Lorsque de tels événements ne sont connus que durant un trajet, le camion qui accomplit ce trajet doit être détourné vers un chemin alternatif. En l’absence d’informations sur un tel chemin, le chauffeur du camion est susceptible de choisir un chemin alternatif inutilement long ou pire, qui est lui-même "fermé" suite à un événement imprévu. Il est donc essentiel de fournir aux chauffeurs des informations en temps réel, en particulier des suggestions de chemins alternatifs lorsqu’une route prévue s’avère impraticable. Les possibilités de recours en cas d’imprévus dépendent des caractéristiques de la chaîne logistique étudiée comme la présence de camions auto-chargeurs et la politique de gestion du transport. Nous présentons trois articles traitant de contextes d’application différents ainsi que des modèles et des méthodes de résolution adaptés à chacun des contextes. Dans le premier article, les chauffeurs de camion disposent de l’ensemble du plan hebdomadaire de la semaine en cours. Dans ce contexte, tous les efforts doivent être faits pour minimiser les changements apportés au plan initial. Bien que la flotte de camions soit homogène, il y a un ordre de priorité des chauffeurs. Les plus prioritaires obtiennent les volumes de travail les plus importants. Minimiser les changements dans leurs plans est également une priorité. Étant donné que les conséquences des événements imprévus sur le plan de transport sont essentiellement des annulations et/ou des retards de certains voyages, l’approche proposée traite d’abord l’annulation et le retard d’un seul voyage, puis elle est généralisée pour traiter des événements plus complexes. Dans cette ap- proche, nous essayons de re-planifier les voyages impactés durant la même semaine de telle sorte qu’une chargeuse soit libre au moment de l’arrivée du camion à la fois au site forestier et à l’usine. De cette façon, les voyages des autres camions ne seront pas mo- difiés. Cette approche fournit aux répartiteurs des plans alternatifs en quelques secondes. De meilleures solutions pourraient être obtenues si le répartiteur était autorisé à apporter plus de modifications au plan initial. Dans le second article, nous considérons un contexte où un seul voyage à la fois est communiqué aux chauffeurs. Le répartiteur attend jusqu’à ce que le chauffeur termine son voyage avant de lui révéler le prochain voyage. Ce contexte est plus souple et offre plus de possibilités de recours en cas d’imprévus. En plus, le problème hebdomadaire peut être divisé en des problèmes quotidiens, puisque la demande est quotidienne et les usines sont ouvertes pendant des périodes limitées durant la journée. Nous utilisons un modèle de programmation mathématique basé sur un réseau espace-temps pour réagir aux perturbations. Bien que ces dernières puissent avoir des effets différents sur le plan de transport initial, une caractéristique clé du modèle proposé est qu’il reste valable pour traiter tous les imprévus, quelle que soit leur nature. En effet, l’impact de ces événements est capturé dans le réseau espace-temps et dans les paramètres d’entrée plutôt que dans le modèle lui-même. Le modèle est résolu pour la journée en cours chaque fois qu’un événement imprévu est révélé. Dans le dernier article, la flotte de camions est hétérogène, comprenant des camions avec des chargeuses à bord. La configuration des routes de ces camions est différente de celle des camions réguliers, car ils ne doivent pas être synchronisés avec les chargeuses. Nous utilisons un modèle mathématique où les colonnes peuvent être facilement et naturellement interprétées comme des itinéraires de camions. Nous résolvons ce modèle en utilisant la génération de colonnes. Dans un premier temps, nous relaxons l’intégralité des variables de décision et nous considérons seulement un sous-ensemble des itinéraires réalisables. Les itinéraires avec un potentiel d’amélioration de la solution courante sont ajoutés au modèle de manière itérative. Un réseau espace-temps est utilisé à la fois pour représenter les impacts des événements imprévus et pour générer ces itinéraires. La solution obtenue est généralement fractionnaire et un algorithme de branch-and-price est utilisé pour trouver des solutions entières. Plusieurs scénarios de perturbation ont été développés pour tester l’approche proposée sur des études de cas provenant de l’industrie forestière canadienne et les résultats numériques sont présentés pour les trois contextes.

Optimization models and methods for real-time transportation planning in forestry

Lors du transport du bois de la forêt vers les usines, de nombreux événements imprévus peuvent se produire, événements qui perturbent les trajets prévus (par exemple, en raison des conditions météo, des feux de forêt, de la présence de nouveaux chargements, etc.). Lorsque de tels événements ne sont connus que durant un trajet, le camion qui accomplit ce trajet doit être détourné vers un chemin alternatif. En l’absence d’informations sur un tel chemin, le chauffeur du camion est susceptible de choisir un chemin alternatif inutilement long ou pire, qui est lui-même "fermé" suite à un événement imprévu. Il est donc essentiel de fournir aux chauffeurs des informations en temps réel, en particulier des suggestions de chemins alternatifs lorsqu’une route prévue s’avère impraticable. Les possibilités de recours en cas d’imprévus dépendent des caractéristiques de la chaîne logistique étudiée comme la présence de camions auto-chargeurs et la politique de gestion du transport. Nous présentons trois articles traitant de contextes d’application différents ainsi que des modèles et des méthodes de résolution adaptés à chacun des contextes. Dans le premier article, les chauffeurs de camion disposent de l’ensemble du plan hebdomadaire de la semaine en cours. Dans ce contexte, tous les efforts doivent être faits pour minimiser les changements apportés au plan initial. Bien que la flotte de camions soit homogène, il y a un ordre de priorité des chauffeurs. Les plus prioritaires obtiennent les volumes de travail les plus importants. Minimiser les changements dans leurs plans est également une priorité. Étant donné que les conséquences des événements imprévus sur le plan de transport sont essentiellement des annulations et/ou des retards de certains voyages, l’approche proposée traite d’abord l’annulation et le retard d’un seul voyage, puis elle est généralisée pour traiter des événements plus complexes. Dans cette ap- proche, nous essayons de re-planifier les voyages impactés durant la même semaine de telle sorte qu’une chargeuse soit libre au moment de l’arrivée du camion à la fois au site forestier et à l’usine. De cette façon, les voyages des autres camions ne seront pas mo- difiés. Cette approche fournit aux répartiteurs des plans alternatifs en quelques secondes. De meilleures solutions pourraient être obtenues si le répartiteur était autorisé à apporter plus de modifications au plan initial. Dans le second article, nous considérons un contexte où un seul voyage à la fois est communiqué aux chauffeurs. Le répartiteur attend jusqu’à ce que le chauffeur termine son voyage avant de lui révéler le prochain voyage. Ce contexte est plus souple et offre plus de possibilités de recours en cas d’imprévus. En plus, le problème hebdomadaire peut être divisé en des problèmes quotidiens, puisque la demande est quotidienne et les usines sont ouvertes pendant des périodes limitées durant la journée. Nous utilisons un modèle de programmation mathématique basé sur un réseau espace-temps pour réagir aux perturbations. Bien que ces dernières puissent avoir des effets différents sur le plan de transport initial, une caractéristique clé du modèle proposé est qu’il reste valable pour traiter tous les imprévus, quelle que soit leur nature. En effet, l’impact de ces événements est capturé dans le réseau espace-temps et dans les paramètres d’entrée plutôt que dans le modèle lui-même. Le modèle est résolu pour la journée en cours chaque fois qu’un événement imprévu est révélé. Dans le dernier article, la flotte de camions est hétérogène, comprenant des camions avec des chargeuses à bord. La configuration des routes de ces camions est différente de celle des camions réguliers, car ils ne doivent pas être synchronisés avec les chargeuses. Nous utilisons un modèle mathématique où les colonnes peuvent être facilement et naturellement interprétées comme des itinéraires de camions. Nous résolvons ce modèle en utilisant la génération de colonnes. Dans un premier temps, nous relaxons l’intégralité des variables de décision et nous considérons seulement un sous-ensemble des itinéraires réalisables. Les itinéraires avec un potentiel d’amélioration de la solution courante sont ajoutés au modèle de manière itérative. Un réseau espace-temps est utilisé à la fois pour représenter les impacts des événements imprévus et pour générer ces itinéraires. La solution obtenue est généralement fractionnaire et un algorithme de branch-and-price est utilisé pour trouver des solutions entières. Plusieurs scénarios de perturbation ont été développés pour tester l’approche proposée sur des études de cas provenant de l’industrie forestière canadienne et les résultats numériques sont présentés pour les trois contextes.

Estudio y optimización de las infraestructuras de los carriles para bicicletas

La necesidad cotidiana de los ciudadanos de desplazarse para realizar diferentes actividades, sea cual fuere su naturaleza, se ha visto afectada en gran medida por los cambios producidos. Las ventajas generadas por la inclusión de la bicicleta como modo de transporte y la proliferación de su uso entre la ciudadanía son innumerables y se extienden tanto en el ámbito de la movilidad urbana como del desarrollo sostenible. En la actualidad, hay multitud de programas para la implantación, fomento o aumento de la participación ciudadana relacionado con la bicicleta en las ciudades. Pero en definitiva, todos y cada uno de estas iniciativas tienen la misma finalidad, crear una malla de vías cicladles eficaz y útil. Capaces de permitir el uso de la bicicleta en vías preferentes con unas garantías de seguridad altas, incorporando la bicicleta en el modelo de intermodalidad del transporte urbano. Con la progresiva implantación del carril bici, muchas personas han empezado a utilizarlas para moverse por la ciudad. Pero todo lo nuevo necesita un periodo de adaptación. Y, la realidad es que la red de viales destinados para estos vehículos está repleta de obstáculos para el ciclista. La actual situación ha llevado a cuestionar qué cantidad de kilómetros de carriles bici son necesarios para abastecer la demanda existente de este modo de transporte y, si las obras ejecutadas y proyectadas son las correctas y suficientes. En este trabajo se presenta una herramienta, basada en un modelo de programación matemática, para el diseño óptimo de una red destinada a los ciclistas. En concreto, el sistema determina una infraestructura para la bicicleta adaptada a las características de la red de carreteras existentes, con base en criterios de teoría de grafos ponderados. Como una aplicación del modelo propuesto, se ofrece el resultado de estos experimentos, obteniéndose un número de conclusiones útiles para la planificación y el diseño de redes de carriles bici desde una perspectiva social. Se realiza una aplicación de la metodología desarrollada para el caso real del municipio de Málaga (España). Por último se produce la validación del modelo de optimización presentado y la repercusión que tiene éste sobre el resultado final y la importancia o el peso del total de variables capaces de condicionar el resultado final de la red ciclista. Se obtiene, por tanto, una herramienta destinada a la mejora de la planificación, diseño y gestión de las diferentes infraestructuras para la bicicleta, con capacidad de interactuar con el modelo de red vial actual y con el resto de los modos de transportes existentes en el entramado urbano de las ciudades.