Statistical inference of OH concentrations and air mass dilution rates from successive observations of non-methane hydrocarbons in single air masses

Bayesian inference has been used to determine rigorous estimates of hydroxyl radical concentrations () and air mass dilution rates (K) averaged following air masses between linked observations of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) spanning the North Atlantic during the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT)-Lagrangian-2K4 experiment. The Bayesian technique obtains a refined (posterior) distribution of a parameter given data related to the parameter through a model and prior beliefs about the parameter distribution. Here, the model describes hydrocarbon loss through OH reaction and mixing with a background concentration at rate K. The Lagrangian experiment provides direct observations of hydrocarbons at two time points, removing assumptions regarding composition or sources upstream of a single observation. The estimates are sharpened by using many hydrocarbons with different reactivities and accounting for their variability and measurement uncertainty. A novel technique is used to construct prior background distributions of many species, described by variation of a single parameter . This exploits the high correlation of species, related by the first principal component of many NMHC samples. The Bayesian method obtains posterior estimates of , K and following each air mass. Median values are typically between 0.5 and 2.0 × 106 molecules cm−3, but are elevated to between 2.5 and 3.5 × 106 molecules cm−3, in low-level pollution. A comparison of estimates from absolute NMHC concentrations and NMHC ratios assuming zero background (the “photochemical clock” method) shows similar distributions but reveals systematic high bias in the estimates from ratios. Estimates of K are ∼0.1 day−1 but show more sensitivity to the prior distribution assumed.

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

Moisture can be the dominant environmental parameter governing cadaver decomposition in soil

Forensic taphonomy involves the use of decomposition to estimate postmortem interval (PMI) or locate clandestine graves. Yet, cadaver decomposition remains poorly understood, particularly following burial in soil. Presently, we do not know how most edaphic and environmental parameters, including soil moisture, influence the breakdown of cadavers following burial and alter the processes that are used to estimate PMI and locate clandestine graves. To address this, we buried juvenile rat (Rattus rattus) cadavers (∼18 g wet weight) in three contrasting soils from tropical savanna ecosystems located in Pallarenda (sand), Wambiana (medium clay), or Yabulu (loamy sand), Queensland, Australia. These soils were sieved (2 mm), weighed (500 g dry weight), calibrated to a matric potential of -0.01 megapascals (MPa), -0.05 MPa, or -0.3 MPa (wettest to driest) and incubated at 22 °C. Measurements of cadaver decomposition included cadaver mass loss, carbon dioxide-carbon (CO2-C) evolution, microbial biomass carbon (MBC), protease activity, phosphodiesterase activity, ninhydrin-reactive nitrogen (NRN) and soil pH. Cadaver burial resulted in a significant increase in CO2-C evolution, MBC, enzyme activities, NRN and soil pH. Cadaver decomposition in loamy sand and sandy soil was greater at lower matric potentials (wetter soil). However, optimal matric potential for cadaver decomposition in medium clay was exceeded, which resulted in a slower rate of cadaver decomposition in the wettest soil. Slower cadaver decomposition was also observed at high matric potential (-0.3 MPa). Furthermore, wet sandy soil was associated with greater cadaver decomposition than wet fine-textured soil. We conclude that gravesoil moisture content can modify the relationship between temperature and cadaver decomposition and that soil microorganisms can play a significant role in cadaver breakdown. We also conclude that soil NRN is a more reliable indicator of gravesoil than soil pH.

CONSTRAINING THE NONEXTENSIVE MASS FUNCTION OF HALOS FROM BAO, CMB AND X-RAY DATA

Clusters of galaxies are the most impressive gravitationally-bound systems in the universe, and their abundance (the cluster mass function) is an important statistic to probe the matter density parameter (Omega(m)) and the amplitude of density fluctuations (sigma(8)). The cluster mass function is usually described in terms of the Press-Schecther (PS) formalism where the primordial density fluctuations are assumed to be a Gaussian random field. In previous works we have proposed a non-Gaussian analytical extension of the PS approach with basis on the q-power law distribution (PL) of the nonextensive kinetic theory. In this paper, by applying the PL distribution to fit the observational mass function data from X-ray highest flux-limited sample (HIFLUGCS), we find a strong degeneracy among the cosmic parameters, sigma(8), Omega(m) and the q parameter from the PL distribution. A joint analysis involving recent observations from baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) peak and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) shift parameter is carried out in order to break these degeneracy and better constrain the physically relevant parameters. The present results suggest that the next generation of cluster surveys will be able to probe the quantities of cosmological interest (sigma(8), Omega(m)) and the underlying cluster physics quantified by the q-parameter.

Renormalization of the S parameter in holographic models of electroweak symmetry breaking

We show that the S parameter is not finite in theories of electroweak symmetry breaking in a slice of anti-de Sitter five-dimensional space, with the light fermions localized in the ultraviolet. We compute the one-loop contributions to S from the Higgs sector and show that they are logarithmically dependent on the cutoff of the theory. We discuss the renormalization of S, as well as the implications for bounds from electroweak precision measurements on these models. We argue that, although in principle the choice of renormalization condition could eliminate the S parameter constraint, a more consistent condition would still result in a large and positive S. On the other hand, we show that the dependence on the Higgs mass in S can be entirely eliminated by the renormalization procedure, making it impossible in these theories to extract a Higgs mass bound from electroweak precision constraints.

Probing neutrino mass with displaced vertices at the Fermilab Tevatron

Supersymmetric extensions of the standard model exhibiting bilinear R-parity violation can generate naturally the observed neutrino mass spectrum as well as mixings. One interesting feature of these scenarios is that the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) is unstable, with several of its decay properties predicted in terms of neutrino mixing angles. A smoking gun of this model in colliders is the presence of displaced vertices due to LSP decays in large parts of the parameter space. In this work we focus on the simplest model of this type that comes from minimal supergravity with universal R-parity conserving soft breaking of supersymmetry augmented with bilinear R-parity breaking terms at the electroweak scale (RmSUGRA). We evaluate the potential of the Fermilab Tevatron to probe the RmSUGRA parameters through the analysis of events possessing two displaced vertices stemming from LSP decays. We show that requiring two displaced vertices in the events leads to a reach in m(1/2) twice the one in the usual multilepton signals in a large fraction of the parameter space.

CERN LHC signals for a neutrino mass model with bilinear R-parity violating minimal anomaly mediated supersymmetry

We investigate a neutrino mass model in which the neutrino data is accounted for by bilinear R-parity violating supersymmetry with anomaly mediated supersymmetry breaking. We focus on the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) phenomenology, studying the reach of generic supersymmetry search channels with leptons, missing energy and jets. A special feature of this model is the existence of long-lived neutralinos and charginos which decay inside the detector leading to detached vertices. We demonstrate that the largest reach is obtained in the displaced vertices channel and that practically all of the reasonable parameter space will be covered with an integrated luminosity of 10 fb(-1). We also compare the displaced vertex reaches of the LHC and Tevatron.

Nonuniqueness of the Fierz-Pauli mass term for a nonsymmetic tensor

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Levenberg-Marquardt application to two-phase nonlinear parameter estimation for finned-tube coil evaporators

A procedure for calculation of refrigerant mass flow rate is implemented in the distributed numerical model to simulate the flow in finned-tube coil dry-expansion evaporators, usually found in refrigeration and air-conditioning systems. Two-phase refrigerant flow inside the tubes is assumed to be one-dimensional, unsteady, and homogeneous. In themodel the effects of refrigerant pressure drop and the moisture condensation from the air flowing over the external surface of the tubes are considered. The results obtained are the distributions of refrigerant velocity, temperature and void fraction, tube-wall temperature, air temperature, and absolute humidity. The finite volume method is used to discretize the governing equations. Additionally, given the operation conditions and the geometric parameters, the model allows the calculation of the refrigerant mass flow rate. The value of mass flow rate is computed using the process of parameter estimation with the minimization method of Levenberg-Marquardt minimization. In order to validate the developed model, the obtained results using HFC-134a as a refrigerant are compared with available data from the literature.

Age constraints and fine tuning in variable-mass particle models

VAMP (variable-mass particle) scenarios, in which the mass of the cold dark matter particles is a function of the scalar field responsible for the present acceleration of the Universe, have been proposed as a solution to the cosmic coincidence problem, since in the attractor regime both dark energy and dark matter scale in the same way. We find that only a narrow region in parameter space leads to models with viable values for the Hubble constant and dark energy density today. In the allowed region, the dark energy density starts to dominate around the present epoch and consequently such models cannot solve the coincidence problem. We show that the age of the Universe in this scenario is considerably higher than the age for noncoupled dark energy models, and conclude that more precise independent measurements of the age of the Universe would be useful in distinguishing between coupled and noncoupled dark energy models.

Measurement of the top quark mass in the lepton plus jets final state with the matrix element method

We present a measurement of the top quark mass with the matrix element method in the lepton+jets final state. As the energy scale for calorimeter jets represents the dominant source of systematic uncertainty, the matrix element likelihood is extended by an additional parameter, which is defined as a global multiplicative factor applied to the standard energy scale. The top quark mass is obtained from a fit that yields the combined statistical and systematic jet energy scale uncertainty. Using a data set of 0.4 fb(-1) taken with the D0 experiment at Run II of the Fermilab Tevatron Collider, the mass of the top quark is measured using topological information to be: m(top)(center dot+jets)(topo)=169.2(-7.4)(+5.0)(stat+JES)(-1.4)(+1.5)(syst) GeV, and when information about identified b jets is included: m(top)(center dot+jets)(b-tag)=170.3(-4.5)(+4.1)(stat+ JES)(-1.8)(+1.2)(syst) GeV. The measurements yield a jet energy scale consistent with the reference scale.

Measurement of the CP-violation parameter of B-0 mixing and decay with p(p)over-bar ->mu mu X data

We measure the dimuon charge asymmetry A in p (p) over bar collisions at a center of mass energy root s=1960 GeV. The data was recorded with the D0 detector and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of approximately 1.0 fb(-1). Assuming that the asymmetry A is due to asymmetric B-0 <->(B) over bar (0) mixing and decay, we extract the CP-violation parameter of B-0 mixing and decay: ((epsilon B0))/(1+vertical bar epsilon B0 vertical bar 2)=(AB0)/(4)= -0.0023 +/- 0.0011(stat)+/- 0.0008(syst).A(B)(0) is the dimuon charge asymmetry from decays of B-0(B) over bar (0) pairs. The general case, with CP violation in both B-0 and B-s(0) systems, is also considered. Finally we obtain the forward-backward asymmetry that quantifies the tendency of mu(+) to go in the proton direction and mu(-) to go in the antiproton direction. The results are consistent with the standard model and constrain new physics.

Chiral symmetry breaking in QCD-like gauge theories with a confining propagator and dynamical gauge boson mass generation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Combining general relativity, massive QED and Very Long Baseline Interferometry to gravitationally constrain the photon mass

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

PHOTON MASS and VERY LONG BASELINE INTERFEROMETRY

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)