Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

Contamination of port zone sediments by metals from Large Marine Ecosystems of Brazil

Sediment contamination by metals poses risks to coastal ecosystems and is considered to be problematic to dredging operations. In Brazil, there are differences in sedimentology along the Large Marine Ecosystems in relation to the metal distributions. We aimed to assess the extent of Al, Fe, Hg, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn contamination in sediments from port zones in northeast (Mucuripe and Pecem) and southeast (Santos) Brazil through geochemical analyses and sediment quality ratings. The metal concentrations found in these port zones were higher than those observed in the continental shelf or the background values in both regions. In the northeast, metals were associated with carbonate, while in Santos, they were associated with mud. Geochemical analyses showed enrichments in Hg, Cd, Cu, Ni and Zn, and a simple application of international sediment quality guidelines failed to predict their impacts, whereas the use of site-specific values that were derived by geochemical and ecotoxicological approaches seemed to be more appropriate in the management of the dredged sediments. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem Engineering Effects On Species Diversity Across Ecosystems: A Meta-analysis.

Ecosystem engineering is increasingly recognized as a relevant ecological driver of diversity and community composition. Although engineering impacts on the biota can vary from negative to positive, and from trivial to enormous, patterns and causes of variation in the magnitude of engineering effects across ecosystems and engineer types remain largely unknown. To elucidate the above patterns, we conducted a meta-analysis of 122 studies which explored effects of animal ecosystem engineers on species richness of other organisms in the community. The analysis revealed that the overall effect of ecosystem engineers on diversity is positive and corresponds to a 25% increase in species richness, indicating that ecosystem engineering is a facilitative process globally. Engineering effects were stronger in the tropics than at higher latitudes, likely because new or modified habitats provided by engineers in the tropics may help minimize competition and predation pressures on resident species. Within aquatic environments, engineering impacts were stronger in marine ecosystems (rocky shores) than in streams. In terrestrial ecosystems, engineers displayed stronger positive effects in arid environments (e.g. deserts). Ecosystem engineers that create new habitats or microhabitats had stronger effects than those that modify habitats or cause bioturbation. Invertebrate engineers and those with lower engineering persistence (<1 year) affected species richness more than vertebrate engineers which persisted for >1 year. Invertebrate species richness was particularly responsive to engineering impacts. This study is the first attempt to build an integrative framework of engineering effects on species diversity; it highlights the importance of considering latitude, habitat, engineering functional group, taxon and persistence of their effects in future theoretical and empirical studies.

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Baseline analysis of the existing capacities and needs for capacity building for Marine Strategy Framework Directive implementation in the Celtic Seas sub-region.

This report evaluates the existing situation in the Celtic Seas sub-region and determines the current state of preparedness for transboundary management of marine ecosystems and MSFD implementation. Recommendations for capacity building are provided through the analysis of the existing conflicts and potential synergies between relevant policies, institutions and information resources for MSFD implementation across the region. This report strives to empower stakeholders through the provision of a sound baseline with accurate and up-to-date information on the current status of MSFD implementation, potential opportunities and suggested approaches for building capacities in their region and across the Celtic Seas. It is evident that there are a number of national marine planning processes currently underway and at different stages throughout the United Kingdom and the pre-planning context for MSP in Ireland. On a similar note, this evaluation of MSFD implementation progress to-date in the United Kingdom, Ireland and France highlights that each Member State has implemented the legal and procedural requirements of preparatory steps in differing manners and using different time scales. This variance across the sub-region has the potential to impact the achievement of GES by 2020 across the Celtic Seas.

A trophic analysis of target species of macrobenthos in a subtropical coast community: a taxa relationship essay

Studies on the feeding habits of aquatic organisms are a requirement for the management and sustainable use of marine ecosystems. The aim of the present research was to analyze the habits and trophic similarities of decapods, starfish and fish in order to propose trophic relationships between taxa, using Hennigian methods of phylogenetic systematics. This new grouping hypothesis, based on shared and exclusive food items and food types, corresponds to the broad taxonomic groups used in the analysis. Our results indicate that algae, Mollusca, Polychaeta, Crustacea, Echinodermata and Actinopterygii are the most exploited common resources among the species studied. Starfish were differentiated from other organisms for being stenophagic, and were grouped for feeding on bivalve mollusks. A larger group of fish and crustaceans shares algae and mainly crustaceans as food items. A third group united all eight species of Actinopterygii. This largest subgroup of fish is typically carnivorous, feeding on Anthozoa and a great quantity of Crustacea. Synodus foetens has a special position among fishes, due to its unique feeding on nematodes. A Euclidean distance dendrogram obtained in a previous publication grouped S. foetens with starfish. That result was based on a few non-exclusive shared similarities in feeding modes, as well as on shared absences of items, which are not an adequate grouping factor. Starfish are stenophagic, eating bivalves almost exclusively. Synodus foetens and Isopisthus parvipinnis have restricted food items, and are thus intermediary in relation to starfish, decapods, and other fish, which are euryphagous. The trophic cladogram displays details of food items, whether or not shared by all species. The resulting trophic analysis is consistent with known historical relationships.

The structure of Mediterranean rocky reef ecosystems across environmental and human gradients, and conservation implications

Historical exploitation of the Mediterranean Sea and the absence of rigorous baselines makes it difficult to evaluate the current health of the marine ecosystems and the efficacy of conservation actions at the ecosystem level. Here we establish the first current baseline and gradient of ecosystem structure of nearshore rocky reefs at the Mediterranean scale. We conducted underwater surveys in 14 marine protected areas and 18 open access sites across the Mediterranean, and across a 31-fold range of fish biomass (from 3.8 to 118 g m22). Our data showed remarkable variation in the structure of rocky reef ecosystems. Multivariate analysis showed three alternative community states: (1) large fish biomass and reefs dominated by non-canopy algae, (2) lower fish biomass but abundant native algal canopies and suspension feeders, and (3) low fish biomass and extensive barrens, with areas covered by turf algae. Our results suggest that the healthiest shallow rocky reef ecosystems in the Mediterranean have both large fish and algal biomass. Protection level and primary production were the only variables significantly correlated to community biomass structure. Fish biomass was significantly larger in well-enforced no-take marine reserves, but there were no significant differences between multi-use marine protected areas (which allow some fishing) and open access areas at the regional scale. The gradients reported here represent a trajectory of degradation that can be used to assess the health of any similar habitat in the Mediterranean, and to evaluate the efficacy of marine protected areas.

Oceanografia e Química: unindo conhecimentos em prol dos oceanos e da sociedade

The marine environment is certainly one of the most complex systems to study, not only because of the challenges posed by the nature of the waters, but especially due to the interactions of physical, chemical and biological processes that control the cycles of the elements. Together with analytical chemists, oceanographers have been making a great effort in the advancement of knowledge of the distribution patterns of trace elements and processes that determine their biogeochemical cycles and influences on the climate of the planet. The international academic community is now in prime position to perform the first study on a global scale for observation of trace elements and their isotopes in the marine environment (GEOTRACES) and to evaluate the effects of major global changes associated with the influences of megacities distributed around the globe. This action can only be performed due to the development of highly sensitive detection methods and the use of clean sampling and handling techniques, together with a joint international program working toward the clear objective of expanding the frontiers of the biogeochemistry of the oceans and related topics, including climate change issues and ocean acidification associated with alterations in the carbon cycle. It is expected that the oceanographic data produced this coming decade will allow a better understanding of biogeochemical cycles, and especially the assessment of changes in trace elements and contaminants in the oceans due to anthropogenic influences, as well as its effects on ecosystems and climate. Computational models are to be constructed to simulate the conditions and processes of the modern oceans and to allow predictions. The environmental changes arising from human activity since the 18th century (also called the Anthropocene) have made the Earth System even more complex. Anthropogenic activities have altered both terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and the legacy of these impacts in the oceans include: a) pollution of the marine environment by solid waste, including plastics; b) pollution by chemical and medical (including those for veterinary use) substances such as hormones, antibiotics, legal and illegal drugs, leading to possible endocrine disruption of marine organisms; and c) ocean acidification, the collateral effect of anthropogenic emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere, irreversible in the human life time scale. Unfortunately, the anthropogenic alteration of the hydrosphere due to inputs of plastics, metal, hydrocarbons, contaminants of emerging concern and even with formerly "exotic" trace elements, such us rare earth elements is likely to accelerate in the near future. These emerging contaminants would likely soon present difficulties for studies in pristine environments. All this knowledge brings with it a great responsibility: helping to envisage viable adaptation and mitigation solutions to the problems identified. The greatest challenge faced by Brazil is currently to create a framework project to develop education, science and technology applied to oceanography and related areas. This framework would strengthen the present working groups and enhance capacity building, allowing a broader Brazilian participation in joint international actions and scientific programs. Recently, the establishment of the National Institutes of Science and Technology (INCTs) for marine science, and the creation of the National Institute of Oceanographic and Hydrological Research represent an exemplary start. However, the participation of the Brazilian academic community in the latest assaults on the frontier of chemical oceanography is extremely limited, largely due to: i. absence of physical infrastructure for the preparation and processing of field samples at ultra-trace level; ii. limited access to oceanographic cruises, due to the small number of Brazilian vessels and/or absence of "clean" laboratories on board; iii. restricted international cooperation; iv. limited analytical capacity of Brazilian institutions for the analysis of trace elements in seawater; v. high cost of ultrapure reagents associated with processing a large number of samples, and vi. lack of qualified technical staff. Advances in knowledge, analytic capabilities and the increasing availability of analytical resources available today offer favorable conditions for chemical oceanography to grow. The Brazilian academic community is maturing and willing to play a role in strengthening the marine science research programs by connecting them with educational and technological initiatives in order to preserve the oceans and to promote the development of society.

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters Executive summary Nature of the problem • Most regional watersheds in Europe constitute managed human territories importing large amounts of new reactive nitrogen. • As a consequence, groundwater, surface freshwater and coastal seawater are undergoing severe nitrogen contamination and/or eutrophication problems. Approaches • A comprehensive evaluation of net anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen (NANI) through atmospheric deposition, crop N fixation,fertiliser use and import of food and feed has been carried out for all European watersheds. A database on N, P and Si fluxes delivered at the basin outlets has been assembled. • A number of modelling approaches based on either statistical regression analysis or mechanistic description of the processes involved in nitrogen transfer and transformations have been developed for relating N inputs to watersheds to outputs into coastal marine ecosystems. Key findings/state of knowledge • Throughout Europe, NANI represents 3700 kgN/km2/yr (range, 0–8400 depending on the watershed), i.e. five times the background rate of natural N2 fixation. • A mean of approximately 78% of NANI does not reach the basin outlet, but instead is stored (in soils, sediments or ground water) or eliminated to the atmosphere as reactive N forms or as N2. • N delivery to the European marine coastal zone totals 810 kgN/km2/yr (range, 200–4000 depending on the watershed), about four times the natural background. In areas of limited availability of silica, these inputs cause harmful algal blooms. Major uncertainties/challenges • The exact dimension of anthropogenic N inputs to watersheds is still imperfectly known and requires pursuing monitoring programmes and data integration at the international level. • The exact nature of ‘retention’ processes, which potentially represent a major management lever for reducing N contamination of water resources, is still poorly understood. • Coastal marine eutrophication depends to a large degree on local morphological and hydrographic conditions as well as on estuarine processes, which are also imperfectly known. Recommendations • Better control and management of the nitrogen cascade at the watershed scale is required to reduce N contamination of ground- and surface water, as well as coastal eutrophication. • In spite of the potential of these management measures, there is no choice at the European scale but to reduce the primary inputs of reactive nitrogen to watersheds, through changes in agriculture, human diet and other N flows related to human activity.

Dieta do ouriço-branco, Tripneustes ventricosus (Lamarck, 1816), no Arquipélago de Fernando de Noronha, PE

Sea urchins are benthic macroinvertebrates that inhabit shallow coastal waters in tropical and temperate zones. Urchins are usually classified as generalists or omnivores as they can adjust their diet according to the food resources available in the environment. Due to the strong grazing pressure they may exert, urchins have an important role in marine ecosystems, occupying different trophic levels and stimulating the intensification of the dynamics of communities where they occur. In 2004, a monitoring program focused on the population dynamics of the white sea urchin, Tripneustes ventricosus, has been initiated in the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago. At the same time, a surprisingly lack of information on the species biology has been noted, despite their wide geographical distribution and economic importance in many parts of its range. Hence, this work was developed to provide information on the feeding habits of T. ventricosus in the archipelago. Ten specimens were collected between December 2006 and July 2007 at two sites of the archipelago, Air France and Sueste Bay for biometrics and analysis of gut contents. Test diameters ranged from 9.19 cm (± 1.1) to 10.08 cm (± 0.58). Calculated stomach repletion index (IRE) was higher (p <0.05) in the Air France site and also during January and July. The IRE was not correlated to the gonad index. Fifteen different species of algae were detected in a total of 120 stomachs examined: 4 Chlorophytas, 4 Phaeophytas and 6 Rhodophytas. Food diversity (p <0.05) was higher in December 2006 and January 2007. Although several items had a high frequency of occurrence, they were low represented in terms of weight, and consequently, had a low level of relative importance. The brown algae Dictyopteris spp and Dictyota spp, followed by the green algae Caulerpa verticillata accounted for the greatest importance in T. ventricosus diet, comprising about 90% of the consumed items

Populations analysis of the Brazilian Sharpnose Shark Rhizoprionodon lalandii (Chondrichthyes: Carcharhinidae) on the São Paulo coast, Southern Brazil: inferences from mt DNA sequences

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Table 1 Microorganisms, identified with DOGE analysis. 16S rDNA sequences, obtained from sequencing of DOGE bands, were assigned to the corresponding microorganisms

Microorganisms play an important role in the transformation of material within the earth's crust. The storage of CO2 could affect the composition of inorganic and organic components in the reservoir, consequently influencing microbial activities. To study the microbial induced processes together with geochemical, petrophysical and mineralogical changes, occurring during CO2 storage, long-term laboratory experiments under simulated reservoir P-T conditions were carried out. Clean inner core sections, obtained from the reservoir region at the CO2 storage site in Ketzin (Germany) from a depth of about 650 m, were incubated in high pressure vessels together with sterile synthetic formation brine under in situ P-T conditions of 5.5 MPa and 40°C. A 16S rDNA based fingerprinting method was used to identify the dominant species in DNA extracts of pristine sandstone samples. Members of the alpha- and beta-subdivisions of Proteobacteria and the Actinobacteria were identified. So far sequences belonging to facultative anaerobic, chemoheterotrophic bacteria (Burkholderia fungorum, Agrobacterium tumefaciens) gaining their energy from the oxidation of organic molecules and a genus also capable of chemolithoautotrophic growth (Hydrogenophaga) was identified. During CO2 incubation minor changes in the microbial community composition were observed. The majority of microbes were able to adapt to the changed conditions. During CO2 exposure increased concentrations of Ca**2+, K**+, Mg**2+ and SO4**2- were observed. Partially, concentration rises are (i) due to equilibration between rock pore water and synthetic brine, and (ii) between rock and brine, and are thus independent on CO2 exposure. However, observed concentrations of Ca**2+, K**+, Mg**2+ are even higher than in the original reservoir fluid and therefore indicate mineral dissolution due to CO2 exposure.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and silica during an experiment with a marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii, 2004

Opal accumulation rates in sediments have been used as a proxy for carbon flux, but there is poor understanding of the factors that regulate the Si quota of diatoms. Natural variation in silicon isotopes (delta.lc.gif - 54 Bytes30Si) in diatom frustules recovered from sediment cores are an alternative to opal mass for reconstructing diatom Si use and potential C export over geological timescales. Understanding the physiological factors that may influence the Si quota and the delta.lc.gif - 54 Bytes30Si isotopic signal is vital for interpreting biogenic silica as a paleoproxy. We investigated the influence of pCO2 on the Si quota, fluxes across the cell membrane, and frustule dissolution in the marine diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii and determined the effect that pCO2 has on the isotopic fractionation of Si. We found that our Si flux estimates mass balance and, for the first time, describe the Si budget of a diatom. The Si quota rose in cells grown with low pCO2 (100 ppm) compared with controls (370 ppm), and the increased quota was the result of greater retention of Si (i.e., lower losses of Si through efflux and dissolution). The ratio of efflux : influx decreased twofold as pCO2 decreased from 750 to 100 ppm. The efflux of silicon is shown to significantly bias measurements of silica dissolution rates determined by isotope dilution, but no effect on the Si isotopic enrichment factor (epsilon.lc.gif - 51 Bytes) was observed. The latter effect suggests that silicon isotopic discrimination in diatoms is set by the Si transport step rather than by the polymerization step. This observation supports the use of the v signal of biogenic silica as an indicator of the percentage utilization of silicic acid.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, stable carbon isotope fractionation and growth rate during experiments with marine phytoplankton community, 1999

Stable carbon isotope fractionation (%) of 7 marine phytoplankton species grown in different irradiance cycles was measured under nutrient-replete conditions at a high light intensity in batch cultures. Compared to experiments under continuous light, all species exhibited a significantly higher instantaneous growth rate (pi), defined as the rate of carbon fixation during the photo period, when cultivated at 12:12 h. 16:8 h, or 186 h light:dark (L/D) cycles. Isotopic fractionation by the diatoms Skeletonema costatum, Asterionella glacialis, Thalassiosira punctigera, and Coscinodiscus wailesii (Group I) was 4 to 6% lower in a 16:8 h L/D cycle than under continuous light, which we attribute to differences in pi. In contrast, E, in Phaeodactylum tn'cornutum, Thalassiosira weissflogii, and in the dinoflagellate Scrippsiella trochoidea (Group 11) was largely insensitive to day length-related differences in instantaneous growth rate. Since other studies have reported growth-rate dependent fractionation under N-limited conditions in P. tricornutum, pi-related effects on fractionation apparently depend on the factor controlling growth rate. We suggest that a general relationship between E, and pi/[C02,,,] may not exist. For 1 species of each group we tested the effect of variable CO2 concentration, [COz,,,], on isotopic fractionation. A decrease in [CO2,,,] from ca 26 to 3 pm01 kg-' caused a decrease in E, by less than 3%0 This indicates that variation in h in response to changes in day length has a similar or even greater effect on isotopic fractionation than [COz,,,] m some of the species tested. In both groups E, tended to be higher in smaller species at comparable growth rates. In 24 and 48 h time series the algal cells became progressively enriched in 13C during the day and the first hours of the dark period, followed by l3C depletion in the 2 h before beginning of the following Light period. The daily amplitude of the algal isotopic composition (613C), however, was <1.5%0, which demonstrates that diurnal variation in Fl3C is relatively small.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, growth rate and light sensitivity of marine diatom Chaetoceros muelleri (strain CSIRO CS-176) during experiments, 2011

This study investigated the impact of photon flux and elevated CO2 concentrations on growth and photosynthetic electron transport on the marine diatom Chaetoceros muelleri and looked for evidence for the presence of a CO2-concentrating mechanism (CCM). pH drift experiments clearly showed that C. muelleri has the capacity to use bicarbonate to acquire inorganic carbon through one or multiple CCMs. The final pH achieved in unbuffered cultures was not changed by light intensity, even under very low photon flux, implying a low energy demand of bicarbonate use via a CCM. In short-term pH drift experiments, only treatment with the carbonic anhydrase inhibitor ethoxyzolamide (EZ) slowed down the rise in pH considerably. EZ was also the only inhibitor that altered the final pH attained, although marginally. In growth experiments, CO2 availability was manipulated by changing the pH in closed flasks at a fixed dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration. Low-light-treated samples showed lower growth rates in elevated CO2conditions. No CO2 effect was recorded under high light exposure. The maximal photosynthetic capacity, however, increased with CO2 concentration in saturating, but not in subsaturating, light intensities. Growth and photosynthetic capacity therefore responded in opposite ways to increasing CO2 availability. The capacity to photoacclimate to high and low photon flux appeared not to be affected by CO2treatments. However, photoacclimation was restricted to growth photon fluxes between 30 and 300 µmol photons m-2 s-1. The light saturation points for photosynthetic electron transport and for growth coincided at 100 µmol photons m-2 s-1. Below 100 µmol photons m-2 s-1 the light saturation point for photosynthesis was higher than the growth photon flux (i.e. photosynthesis was not light saturated under growth conditions), whereas at higher growth photon flux, photosynthesis was saturated below growth light levels.