Kassavirta-analyysi velkarahoittajan näkökulmasta

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää vuonna 2006 voimaan astuneen osakeyhtiölain, ja sen seurauksena parantuneen velkojainsuojan vaikutus suomessa käytettäviin kassavirtalaskelmiin yritysanalyysissa. Erityisesti tutkittiin maksukykyisyystestin vaikutusta kassavirtalaskelmissa käytettävään maksunsaantijärjestykseen. Aineisto kerättiin haastattelemalla merkittävimpien suomalaisten rahoittajien yritystutkimusten edustajia ja käymällä läpi suomalaista rahoitusalan kirjallisuutta. Tutkielmassa kävi ilmi, että suomen merkittävimpien rahoittajien käyttämissä, tai rahoitusalan kirjallisuudessa esitetyissä kassavirtalaskelmissa, ei ollut otettu huomioon maksukykyisyystestin vaikutusta kassavirta-analyysiin. Tutkielmassa esitetään uudenlainen kassavirtalaskelma, mikä noudattaa mahdollisimman hyvin osakeyhtiön maksunsaantijärjestystä. Uusi kassavirtalaskelma sopii nykyisin Suomessa yleisesti käytössä olevia kassavirtalaskelmia paremmin sekä yrityksen velkakapasiteetin arvioimiseen että osakeyhtiön maksukykyisyystestin tekemiseen osingonjakopäätöksen tueksi. Lisäksi tutkielmassa havainnollistetaan esimerkkilaskelmin kassavirtaanalyysin tekemistä sekä Yritystutkimusneuvottelukunnan suosittamalla kassavirtalaskelmalla että uudenlaisella kassavirtalaskelmalla

Effects of the real plan of the Brazilian banking system

The aim of this paper is to assess the progress of the banking sector before and shortly after the Real Plan. We began by assessing the drop in the inflation revenues (negative real interest rates paid by the excess of demand deposits over total reserve requirements) as a result of the change in inflation from 40% a month for the pre-Real Plan period to a monthly average of 3.65% (IGP-DI), between July 1994 and May 1995. Then, using the financial statement data of a group of 90 banks, we attempt to estimate the net losses due to the inflation drop analyzing the profitability and other parameters of the banking industry. The calculations are made separately for private, state and federal banks. A later analysis on performance using information given to CVM (Securities Exchange Commission) by the six major private banks in the country is also discussed herein.

A crise financeira e a política monetária no Brasil

A crise financeira iniciada em 2007 gerou uma grande recessão nos Estados Unidos e abalou a economia global com consequências nefastas para o crescimento e a taxa de desemprego em vários países. Os principais Bancos Centrais do mundo passaram a dar maior importância para políticas que garantam a estabilidade financeira. É consensual a necessidade de avanços regulatórios e de medidas prudenciais capazes de reduzir os riscos financeiros, mas existem divergências quanto ao uso da taxa básica de juros, não só como um instrumento necessário para garantir a estabilidade de preços, como também para garantir a estabilidade financeira e evitar a formação de bolhas. O Brasil viveu nos últimos vinte anos um período de grande expansão do mercado de crédito, fruto das estabilidades econômica e financeira. O Banco Central do Brasil teve atuação exitosa durante a crise e demonstrou habilidade em utilizar instrumentos de política monetária e medidas macroprudenciais de forma complementar. Nos últimos quatro anos, as condições macroeconômicas se deterioraram e o Brasil atravessou um período de crescimento baixo, inflação próxima ao teto da meta e aumento do endividamento. Enquanto as políticas macroprudenciais foram capazes de evitar a formação de bolhas, as políticas fiscal e monetária foram demasiadamente expansionistas. Neste período houve um enfraquecimento na função-reação do Banco Central, que deixou de respeitar o princípio de Taylor.

The determinants of recent foreign bank penetration in Brazil

Includes bibliography

Bank restructuring and financial institution reform in Indonesia

The banking sector underwent drastic reform in post-crisis Indonesia. Bank restructuring, driven by IMF conditionalities, resulted in the exit of insolvent banks and ownership changes of major private banks. Through recapitalization and sales of government-held shares, foreign-owned banks emerged as leading actors in the place of business-group-affiliated banks. As part of the restructuring process, an exit rule was created. The central bank, which up to that time had been given only partial authority under the jurisdiction of the Minister of Finance, now gained a full range of authority over banks. The central bank's supervision system on banks, risk management systems at individual banks, and their efforts to build risk management capacities, began to function. This is totally different from the old financial institution under the Soeharto regime, where banks had no incentive to control risks, as the regime tacitly ensured their survival.

Impact of foreign capital entry in the Indonesian banking sector

After the Asian financial crisis of 1997/98, the Indonesian banking sector experienced significant changes. Ownership structure of banking sector is substantially-changed. Currently, ownership of major commercial banks is dominated by foreign capital through acquisition. This paper examines whether foreign ownership changes a bank’s lending behavior and performance. Foreign banks tend to lend mainly to large firms; this paper examines whether the credit to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is affected by foreign capital entry into the Indonesian banking sector. Empirical results show that banks owned by foreign capital tend to decrease SME credit.

European Central Bank accountability: how the monetary dialogue could be improved. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2014/04, March 2014

According to the European Union Treaties, the European Central Bank (ECB) is accountable to the European Parliament. In practice, this accountability takes mainly the form of a quarterly Monetary Dialogue between the president of the ECB and the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs committee. We assess the impact of the Monetary Dialogue. We describe the ECB’s accountability practices, compare them to those of other major central banks and provide an assessment of the dialogue in the last five years. The Monetary Dialogue could be improved and we make recommendations on this. We also consider what role the Monetary Dialogue could play in the current context of the ECB’s evolving role. We discuss in particular forward guidance and quantitative easing. We review the main features and the way in which those policies have been implemented by other central banks. We then suggest the appropriate role for the Monetary Dialogue in relation to each of those policies. We conclude with some observations on the function of the Monetary Dialogue after the establishment of a banking union in Europe.

Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China. Bruegel Working Paper 2014/11, 9 October 2014

This paper develops a new underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China which differentiates between trend and noise, is available daily and uses a broad set of variables that potentially influence inflation. Its construction follows the works at other major central banks, adopts the methodology of a dynamic factor model that extracts the lower frequency components as developed by Forni et al (2000) and draws on the experience of the People’s Bank of China in modelling inflation.

Is there a trade-off between quality and productivity? The case of diagnostic technologies in Portugal

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, we compute quality-adjusted measures of productivity change for the three most important diagnostic technologies (i.e., the Computerised Tomography Scan, Electrocardiogram and Echocardiogram) in the major Portuguese hospitals. We use the Malmquist–Luenberger index, which allows to measure productivity growth while controlling for the quality of the production. Second, using non-parametric tests, we analyse whether the implementation of the Prospective Payment System may have had a positive impact on the movements of productivity over time. The results show that the PPS has helped hospitals to use these tools more efficiently and to improve their effectiveness.

Mudança de rota

Fundado num estudo de caso sobre a TAP Air Portugal, a empresa pública nacional do sector da aeronáutica, este artigo pretende comunicar o binómio constituído por processos planeados e emergentes na gestão da mudança organizacional. Nas últimas décadas, a TAP Air Portugal vinha acumulando prejuízos constantes, desmotivação nos seus colaboradores e instabilidade laboral permanente. Com a chegada de uma nova equipa de gestão liderada por Fernando Pinto em 2000, o cenário parece ter-se invertido. O papel do líder, o estilo de gestão, as tácticas de negociação e o fomento de uma visão corporativa são debatidos. Através de um plano minuciosamente projectado e comunicado a toda a organização, observou-se uma mudança cultural alicerçada em objectivos comummente partilhados. Restaurada a confiança dos colaboradores, a empresa retomou a rota desejada.

The global crisis and unconventional monetary policy : ECB versus Fed

In the aftermath of the global economic and financial crisis, which broke-out in 2007, the major central banks started implementing so-called unconventional monetary policy measures. Following a fundamentally qualitative methodology, the aim of this paper is to compare the unconventional measures adopted by the ECB and the Fed, assessing their characteristics and also their impacts on the economy.

Basel III liquidity rules : measuring the impact on portuguese small banks activity

Mestrado em Finanças

Syllable-timing in Brazilian Portuguese: uma crítica a Roy Major

This paper reintroduces the discussion about stress-timing in Brazilian Portuguese (BP). It begins by surveying some phonetic and phonological issues raised by the syllable- vs stress-timed dichotomy which culminated with the emergence of the p-center notion. Strict considerations of timing of V-V units and stress groups are taken into account to analyze the long term coupling of two basic oscillators (vowel and stress flow). This coupling allows a two-parameter characterization of language rhythms (coupling strength and speech rate) revealing that BP utterances present a high-degree of syllable-timing. A comparison with other languages, including European Portuguese, is also presented. The results analyzed indicate that Major's arguments for considering Portuguese (sic) as stress-timing are misleading.

Common genetic polymorphisms in the ABCB1 gene are associated with risk of major depressive disorder in male Portuguese individuals

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a highly prevalent disorder, which has been associated with an abnormal response of the hypothalamus–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis. Reports have argued that an abnormal HPA axis response can be due to an altered P-Glycoprotein (P-GP) function. This argument suggests that genetic polymorphisms in ABCB1 may have an effect on the HPA axis activity; however, it is still not clear if this influences the risk of MDD. Our study aims to evaluate the effect of ABCB1 C1236T, G2677TA and C3435T genetic polymorphisms on MDD risk in a subset of Portuguese patients. DNA samples from 80 MDD patients and 160 control subjects were genotyped using TaqMan SNP Genotyping assays. A significant protection for MDD males carrying the T allele was observed (C1236T: odds ratio (OR) = 0.360, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [0.140– 0.950], p = 0.022; C3435T: OR= 0.306, 95% CI: [0.096–0.980], p = 0.042; and G2677TA: OR= 0.300, 95% CI: [0.100– 0.870], p = 0.013). Male Portuguese individuals carrying the 1236T/2677T/3435T haplotype had nearly 70% less risk of developing MDD (OR = 0.313, 95% CI: [0.118–0.832], p = 0.016, FDR p = 0.032). No significant differences were observed regarding the overall subjects. Our results suggest that genetic variability of the ABCB1 is associated with MDD development in male Portuguese patients. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report in Caucasian samples to analyze the effect of these ABCB1 genetic polymorphisms on MDD risk.

VKORC1 polymorphisms in Brazilians: comparison with the Portuguese and Portuguese-speaking Africans and pharmacogenetic implications

Aims: The heterogeneity of the Brazilian population renders the extrapolation of pharmacogenomic data derived from well-defined ethnic groups inappropriate. We investigated the influence of self-reported `race/color`, geographical origin and genetic ancestry on the distribution of four VKORC1 SNPs and haplotypes in Brazilians. Comparative data were obtained from two major ancestral roots of Brazilians: Portuguese and Africans from former Portuguese colonies. Materials & methods: A total of 1037 healthy adults Brazilians, recruited at four different geographical regions and self identified as white, brown or black (race/color categories), 89 Portuguese and 216 Africans from Angola and Mozambique were genotyped for the VKORC1 3673G>A (rs9923231), 5808T>G (rs2884737), 6853G>C (rs8050894) and 9041G>A (rs7294) polymorphisms using TaqMan (R) (Applied Biosystems, CA, USA) assays. VKORC1 haplotypes were statistically inferred using the haplo.stats software. We inferred the statistical association between the distribution of the VKORC1 polymorphisms among Brazilians and self-reported color, geographical region and genetic ancestry by fitting multinomial log linear models via neural networks. Individual proportions of European and African ancestry were used to assess the impact of genetic admixture on the frequency distribution of VKORC1 polymorphisms among Brazilians, and for the comparison of Brazilians with Portuguese and Africans. Results: The frequency distribution of the 3673G>A and 5808T>G polymorphisms, and VKORC1 haplotypes among Brazilians varies across geographical regions, within self-reported color categories and according to the individual proportions of European and African genetic ancestry. Notably, the frequency of the warfarin sensitive VKORC1 3673A allele and the distribution of VKORC1 haplotypes varied continuously as the individual proportion of European ancestry increased in the entire cohort, independently of race/color categorization and geographical origin. Brazilians with more than 80% African ancestry differ significantly from Angolans and Mozambicans in frequency of the 3673G>A, 5808T>G and 6853G>C polymorphisms and haplotype distribution, whereas no such differences are observed between Brazilians with more than 90% European ancestry and Portuguese individuals. Conclusion: The diversity of the Brazilian population, evident in the distribution of VKORC1 polymorphisms, must be taken into account in the design of pharmacogenetic clinical trials and dealt with as a continuous variable. Warfarin dosing algorithms that include `race` terms defined for other populations are clearly not applicable to the heterogeneous and extensively admixed Brazilian population.