Impacts of the Madden-Julian oscillation on intraseasonal precipitation over northeast Brazil

Este estudo tem como objetivo investigar os impactos da oscilação de Madden-Julian (OMJ) na precipitação da região Nordeste do Brasil (NEB). Para tanto foram utilizados dados diários de precipitação baseados em 492 pluviômetros distribuídos na região e cobrindo um período de 30 anos (1981 − 2010). As análises através de composições de anomalias de precipitação, radiação de onda longa e fluxo de umidade, foram obtidas com base no índice da OMJ desenvolvido por Jones-Carvalho. Para distinguir o sinal da OMJ de outros padrões de variabilidade climática, todos os dados diários foram filtrados na escala de 20 − 90 dias; portanto somente dias classificados como eventos da OMJ foram considerados nas composições. Uma análise preliminar baseada apenas nos dados de precipitação foi feita para uma pequena área localizada no interior semiárido do NEB, conhecida como Seridó. Essa microrregião é uma das áreas mais secas do NEB e foi reconhecida pela Convenção das Nações Unidas para o Combate à Desertificação e Mitigação dos Efeitos das Secas como particularmente vulnerável à desertificação. Composições de anomalias de precipitação foram feitas para cada uma das oito fases da OMJ durante Fevereiro-Maio (principal período chuvoso da microrregião). Os resultados mostraram a existência de variações significativas nos padrões de precipitação (de precipitação excessiva à deficiente) associados à propagação da OMJ. A combinação dos sinais de precipitação obtidos durantes as fases úmidas e secas da OMJ mostrou que a diferença corresponde cerca de 50 − 150% de modulação das chuvas na microrregião. Em seguida, uma investigação abrangente sobre o papel da OMJ sobre toda a região Nordeste foi feita considerando-se as quatro estações do ano. Os resultados mostraram que os impactos da OMJ na precipitação intrassazonal do NEB apresentam forte sazonalidade. A maior coerência espacial dos sinais de precipitação ocorreram durante o verão austral, quando cerca de 80% das estações pluviométricas apresentaram anomalias positivas de precipitação durante as fases 1 − 2 da OMJ e anomalias negativas de precipitação nas fases 5 − 6 da oscilação. Embora impactos da OMJ na precipitação intrassazonal tenham sido encontrados na maioria das localidades e em todas as estações do ano, eles apresentaram variações na magnitude dos sinais e dependem da fase da oscilação. As anomalias de precipitação do NEB observadas são explicadas através da interação existente entre as ondas de Kelvin-Rossby acopladas convectivamente e as características climáticas predominantes sobre a região em cada estação do ano. O aumento de precipitação observado sobre a maior parte do NEB durante o verão e primavera austrais encontra-se associado com o fluxo de umidade de oeste (regime de oeste), o qual favorece a atividade convectiva em amplas áreas da América do Sul tropical. Por outro lado, as anomalias de precipitação durante o inverno e outono austrais apresentaram uma variabilidade espacial mais complexa. Durante estas estações, as anomalias de precipitação observadas nas estações localizadas na costa leste do NEB dependem da intensidade do anticiclone do Atlântico Sul, o qual é modulado em grande parte por ondas de Rossby. As características topográficas do NEB parecem desempenhar um papel importante na variabilidade observada na precipitação, principalmente nestas áreas costeiras. A intensificação do anticiclone aumenta a convergência dos ventos alísios na costa contribuindo para a ocorrência de precipitação observada à barlavento do planalto da Borborema. Por outro lado, o aumento da subsidência parece ser responsável pelos déficits de precipitação observados à sotavento. Tais condições mostraram-se típicas durante o predomínio do regime de leste sobre a região tropical da América do Sul e o NEB, durante o qual ocorre uma diminuição no fluxo de umidade proveniente da Amazônia.

A oscilação Madden - Julian na Amazônia Oriental: variáveis superfíciais

Tendo como foco as múltiplas escalas de tempo que atuam na Amazônia, este trabalho foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de investigar a possível influencia da Oscilação Madden – Julian (OMJ) em elementos turbulentos da CLP. A OMJ foi identificada a partir de 30 anos de dados de reanálise de radiação de onda longa (ROL) e componente zonal do vento (u). As grandezas turbulentas foram estudadas a partir da variância, covariância e coeficiente de correlação de um conjunto de dados de resposta rápida coletado na torre micrometeorológica de Caxiuanã (PA), e tratados com a Transformada em Ondeletas (TO) para se obter a contribuição de cada escala para estes momentos estatísticos. A análise dos 30 anos de dados de ROL e u mostrou que a ocorrência da OMJ está ligada com o fenômeno do El Niño/Oscilação Sul (ENOS), bem como influência do ENOS no tempo da região amazônica pode estar associado a presença ou não da OMJ. Foi observado que anos de El Niño tendem a desfavorecer a ocorrência da OMJ e anos de La Niña tendem a favorecer o desenvolvimento da oscilação. Caso uma OMJ se desenvolva durante um episodio de El Niño, a oscilação pode influenciar a temperatura, a velocidade do vento e a precipitação de forma diferente ao do El Niño. A análise por fase da OMJ mostrou que, em Belém, há diferença significativa na temperatura máxima e na precipitação entre cada fase, porém, a temperatura mínima e o módulo do vento apresentaram pouca diferença. Os fluxos cinemáticos turbulentos analisados, por escala, em três horários distintos, foram mais diferentes durante o período diurno, principalmente w’T’ e w’q’. A diferença entre fase ativa e fase inativa foi reduzindo com passar do dia, durante o período de transição dia – noite, poucas escalas tiveram diferença significativa, e durante a noite, nenhuma escala teve nível de confiança acima ou igual a 95%. Estes resultados indicam que a convecção diurna é o mecanismo responsável por esta diferença e como a OMJ atua como uma grande célula convectiva, a convecção local é amplificada, explicando a grande diferença observada entre as fases durante o período diurno.

Warm pool thermodynamics from the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX)

Before the onset of the south Asian summer monsoon, sea surface temperature (SST) of the north Indian Ocean warms to 30–32°C. Climatological mean mixed layer depth in spring (March–May) is 10–20 m, and net surface heat flux (Q net ) is 80–100 W m−2 into the ocean. Previous work suggests that observed spring SST warming is small mainly because of (1) penetrative flux of solar radiation through the base of the mixed layer (Q pen ) and (2) advective cooling by upper ocean currents. We estimate the role of these two processes in SST evolution from a two-week Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment process experiment in April–May 2005 in the southeastern Arabian Sea. The upper ocean is stratified by salinity and temperature, and mixed layer depth is shallow (6 to 12 m). Current speed at 2 m depth is high even under light winds. Currents within the mixed layer are quite distinct from those at 25 m. On subseasonal scales, SST warming is followed by rapid cooling, although the ocean gains heat at the surface: Q net is about 105 W m−2 in the warming phase and 25 W m−2 in the cooling phase; penetrative loss Q pen is 80 W m−2 and 70 W m−2. In the warming phase, SST rises mainly because of heat absorbed within the mixed layer, i.e., Q net minus Q pen ; Q pen reduces the rate of SST warming by a factor of 3. In the second phase, SST cools rapidly because (1) Q pen is larger than Q net and (2) advective cooling is ∼85 W m−2. A calculation using time-averaged heat fluxes and mixed layer depth suggests that diurnal variability of fluxes and upper ocean stratification tends to warm SST on subseasonal timescale. Buoy and satellite data suggest that a typical premonsoon intraseasonal cooling event occurs under clear skies when the ocean is gaining heat through the surface. In this respect, premonsoon SST cooling in the north Indian Ocean is different from that due to the Madden-Julian oscillation or monsoon intraseasonal oscillation.

Space-Time Scales of Northward Propagation of Convection during Boreal Summer

This study uses precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to quantify the spatial and temporal scales of northward propagation of convection over the Indian monsoon region during boreal summer. Propagating modes of convective systems in the intraseasonal time scales such as the Madden-Julian oscillation can interact with the intertropical convergence zone and bring active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon. Wavelet analysis was used to quantify the spatial extent (scale) and center of these propagating convective bands, as well as the time period associated with different spatial scales. Results presented here suggest that during a good monsoon year the spatial scale of this oscillation is about 30 degrees centered around 10 degrees N. During weak monsoon years, the scale of propagation decreases and the center shifts farther south closer to the equator. A strong linear relationship is obtained between the center/scale of convective wave bands and intensity of monsoon precipitation over Indian land on the interannual time scale. Moreover, the spatial scale and its center during the break monsoon were found to be similar to an overall weak monsoon year. Based on this analysis, a new index is proposed to quantify the spatial scales associated with propagating convective bands. This automated wavelet-based technique developed here can be used to study meridional propagation of convection in a large volume of datasets from observations and model simulations. The information so obtained can be related to the interannual and intraseasonal variation of Indian monsoon precipitation.

An exploration framework to identify and track movement of cloud systems

We describe a framework to explore and visualize the movement of cloud systems. Using techniques from computational topology and computer vision, our framework allows the user to study this movement at various scales in space and time. Such movements could have large temporal and spatial scales such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has a spatial scale ranging from 1000 km to 10000 km and time of oscillation of around 40 days. Embedded within these larger scale oscillations are a hierarchy of cloud clusters which could have smaller spatial and temporal scales such as the Nakazawa cloud clusters. These smaller cloud clusters, while being part of the equatorial MJO, sometimes move at speeds different from the larger scale and in a direction opposite to that of the MJO envelope. Hitherto, one could only speculate about such movements by selectively analysing data and a priori knowledge of such systems. Our framework automatically delineates such cloud clusters and does not depend on the prior experience of the user to define cloud clusters. Analysis using our framework also shows that most tropical systems such as cyclones also contain multi-scale interactions between clouds and cloud systems. We show the effectiveness of our framework to track organized cloud system during one such rainfall event which happened at Mumbai, India in July 2005 and for cyclone Aila which occurred in Bay of Bengal during May 2009.

Environmental Influences on the Frequency and Intensity of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones genesis, movement and intensification are highly dependent on its environment both oceanic and atmospheric. This thesis has made a detailed study on the environmental factors related to tropical cyclones of North Indian Ocean basin. This ocean basin has produced only 6% of the global tropical cyclones annually but it has caused maximum loss of human life associated with the strong winds, heavy rain and particularly storm surges that accompany severe cyclones as they strike the heavily populated coastal areas. Atmospheric factors studied in the thesis are the moisture content of the atmosphere, instability of the atmosphere that produces thunderstorms which are the main source of energy for the tropical cyclone, vertical wind shear to which cyclones are highly sensitive and the Sub-Tropical westerly Jetsteram and its Asian high speed center. The oceanic parameters studied are sea surface temperature and heat storage in the top layer of the ocean. A major portion of the thesis has dealt with the three temporal variabilities of tropical cyclone frequency namely intra-seasonal (mainly the influence of Madden Julian Oscillation), inter- annual (the relation with El Nino Southern Oscillation) and decadal variabilities. Regarding decadal variability, a prominent four decade oscillation in the frequency of both tropical cyclones and monsoon depressions unique to the Indian Ocean basin has been brought out. The thesis consists of 9 chapters.

The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

The variability of tropical ice cloud properties as a function of the large-scale context from ground-based radar-lidar observations over Darwin, Australia

The high complexity of cloud parameterizations now held in models puts more pressure on observational studies to provide useful means to evaluate them. One approach to the problem put forth in the modelling community is to evaluate under what atmospheric conditions the parameterizations fail to simulate the cloud properties and under what conditions they do a good job. It is the ambition of this paper to characterize the variability of the statistical properties of tropical ice clouds in different tropical "regimes" recently identified in the literature to aid the development of better process-oriented parameterizations in models. For this purpose, the statistical properties of non-precipitating tropical ice clouds over Darwin, Australia are characterized using ground-based radar-lidar observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. The ice cloud properties analysed are the frequency of ice cloud occurrence, the morphological properties (cloud top height and thickness), and the microphysical and radiative properties (ice water content, visible extinction, effective radius, and total concentration). The variability of these tropical ice cloud properties is then studied as a function of the large-scale cloud regimes derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the amplitude and phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the large-scale atmospheric regime as derived from a long-term record of radiosonde observations over Darwin. The vertical variability of ice cloud occurrence and microphysical properties is largest in all regimes (1.5 order of magnitude for ice water content and extinction, a factor 3 in effective radius, and three orders of magnitude in concentration, typically). 98 % of ice clouds in our dataset are characterized by either a small cloud fraction (smaller than 0.3) or a very large cloud fraction (larger than 0.9). In the ice part of the troposphere three distinct layers characterized by different statistically-dominant microphysical processes are identified. The variability of the ice cloud properties as a function of the large-scale atmospheric regime, cloud regime, and MJO phase is large, producing mean differences of up to a factor 8 in the frequency of ice cloud occurrence between large-scale atmospheric regimes and mean differences of a factor 2 typically in all microphysical properties. Finally, the diurnal cycle of the frequency of occurrence of ice clouds is also very different between regimes and MJO phases, with diurnal amplitudes of the vertically-integrated frequency of ice cloud occurrence ranging from as low as 0.2 (weak diurnal amplitude) to values in excess of 2.0 (very large diurnal amplitude). Modellers should now use these results to check if their model cloud parameterizations are capable of translating a given atmospheric forcing into the correct statistical ice cloud properties.

Cloud bands over southern Africa: seasonality, contribution to rainfall variability, and modulation by the MJO

Tropical-extratropical cloud band systems over southern Africa, known as tropical temperate troughs (TTTs), are known to contribute substantially to South African summer rainfall. This study performs a comprehensive assessment of the seasonal cycle and rainfall contribution of TTTs by using a novel object-based strategy that explicitly tracks these systems for their full life cycle. The methodology incorporates a simple assignment of station rainfall data to each event, thereby creating a database containing detailed rainfall characteristics for each TTT. This is used to explore the importance of TTTs for rain days and climatological rainfall totals in October–March. Average contributions range from 30 to 60 % with substantial spatial heterogeneity observed. TTT rainfall contributions over the Highveld and eastern escarpment are lower than expected. A short analysis of TTT rainfall variability indicates TTTs provide substantial, but not dominant, intraseasonal and interannual variability in station rainfall totals. TTTs are however responsible for a high proportion of heavy rainfall days. Of 52 extreme rainfall events in the 1979–1999 period, 30 are associated with these tropical-extratropical interactions. Cut-off lows were included in the evolution of 6 of these TTTs. The study concludes with an analysis of the question: does the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence the intensity of TTT rainfall over South Africa? Results suggest a weak but significant suppression (enhancement) of intensity during phase 1(6).

The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation

High-resolution simulations over a large tropical domain (∼20◦S–20◦N and 42◦E–180◦E) using both explicit and parameterized convection are analyzed and compared to observations during a 10-day case study of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. The parameterized convection model simulations at both 40 km and 12 km grid spacing have a very weak MJO signal and little eastward propagation. A 4 km explicit convection simulation using Smagorinsky subgrid mixing in the vertical and horizontal dimensions exhibits the best MJO strength and propagation speed. 12 km explicit convection simulations also perform much better than the 12 km parameterized convection run, suggesting that the convection scheme, rather than horizontal resolution, is key for these MJO simulations. Interestingly, a 4 km explicit convection simulation using the conventional boundary layer scheme for vertical subgrid mixing (but still using Smagorinsky horizontal mixing) completely loses the large-scale MJO organization, showing that relatively high resolution with explicit convection does not guarantee a good MJO simulation. Models with a good MJO representation have a more realistic relationship between lower-free-tropospheric moisture and precipitation, supporting the idea that moisture-convection feedback is a key process for MJO propagation. There is also increased generation of available potential energy and conversion of that energy into kinetic energy in models with a more realistic MJO, which is related to larger zonal variance in convective heating and vertical velocity, larger zonal temperature variance around 200 hPa, and larger correlations between temperature and ascent (and between temperature and diabatic heating) between 500–400 hPa.

Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part I: the representation of the MJO

As a major mode of intraseasonal variability, which interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale, the Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a crucial source of predictability for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Despite its global significance and comprehensive investigation, improvements in the representation of the MJO in an NWP context remain elusive. However, recent modifications to the model physics in the ECMWF model led to advances in the representation of atmospheric variability and the unprecedented propagation of the MJO signal through the entire integration period. In light of these recent advances, a set of hindcast experiments have been designed to assess the sensitivity of MJO simulation to the formulation of convection. Through the application of established MJO diagnostics, it is shown that the improvements in the representation of the MJO can be directly attributed to the modified convective parametrization. Furthermore, the improvements are attributed to the move from a moisture-convergent- to a relative-humidity-dependent formulation for organized deep entrainment. It is concluded that, in order to understand the physical mechanisms through which a relative-humidity-dependent formulation for entrainment led to an improved simulation of the MJO, a more process-based approach should be taken. T he application of process-based diagnostics t o t he hindcast experiments presented here will be the focus of Part II of this study.

Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part II: the application of process-based diagnostics

In Part I of this study it was shown that moving from a moisture-convergent- to a relative-humidity-dependent organized entrainment rate in the formulation for deep convection was responsible for significant advances in the simulation of the Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the ECMWF model. However, the application of traditional MJO diagnostics were not adequate to understand why changing the control on convection had such a pronounced impact on the representation of the MJO. In this study a set of process-based diagnostics are applied to the hindcast experiments described in Part I to identify the physical mechanisms responsible for the advances in MJO simulation. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmental moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation – moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up, which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the t ransition t o d eep convection. R esults from this study suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the convective heating and the large-scale wave forcing associated with the MJO.

Wave activity in the tropical tropopause layer in seven reanalysis and four chemistry climate model data sets

Sub-seasonal variability including equatorial waves significantly influence the dehydration and transport processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). This study investigates the wave activity in the TTL in 7 reanalysis data sets (RAs; NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA40, ERA-Interim, JRA25, MERRA, and CFSR) and 4 chemistry climate models (CCMs; CCSRNIES, CMAM, MRI, and WACCM) using the zonal wave number-frequency spectral analysis method with equatorially symmetric-antisymmetric decomposition. Analyses are made for temperature and horizontal winds at 100 hPa in the RAs and CCMs and for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), which is a proxy for convective activity that generates tropopause-level disturbances, in satellite data and the CCMs. Particular focus is placed on equatorial Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The wave activity is defined as the variance, i.e., the power spectral density integrated in a particular zonal wave number-frequency region. It is found that the TTL wave activities show significant difference among the RAs, ranging from ∼0.7 (for NCEP1 and NCEP2) to ∼1.4 (for ERA-Interim, MERRA, and CFSR) with respect to the averages from the RAs. The TTL activities in the CCMs lie generally within the range of those in the RAs, with a few exceptions. However, the spectral features in OLR for all the CCMs are very different from those in the observations, and the OLR wave activities are too low for CCSRNIES, CMAM, and MRI. It is concluded that the broad range of wave activity found in the different RAs decreases our confidence in their validity and in particular their value for validation of CCM performance in the TTL, thereby limiting our quantitative understanding of the dehydration and transport processes in the TTL.

Does convective aggregation need to be represented in cumulus parameterizations?

Tropical deep convection exhibits a variety of levels of aggregation over a wide range of scales. Based on a multisatellite analysis, the present study shows at mesoscale that different levels of aggregation are statistically associated with differing large-scale atmospheric states, despite similar convective intensity and large-scale forcings. The more aggregated the convection, the dryer and less cloudy the atmosphere, the stronger the outgoing longwave radiation, and the lower the planetary albedo. This suggests that mesoscale convective aggregation has the potential to affect couplings between moisture and convection and between convection, radiation, and large-scale ascent. In so doing, aggregation may play a role in phenomena such as “hot spots” or the Madden-Julian Oscillation. These findings support the need for the representation of mesoscale organization in cumulus parameterizations; most parameterizations used in current climate models lack any such representation. The ability of a cloud system-resolving model to reproduce observed relationships suggests that such models may be useful to guide attempts at parameterizations of convective aggregation.

The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part II: Processes leading to differences in MJO development

High-resolution simulations over a large tropical domain (∼20◦S–20◦N and 42◦E–180◦E) using both explicit and parameterized convection are analyzed and compared during a 10-day case study of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. In Part II, the moisture budgets and moist entropy budgets are analyzed. Vertical subgrid diabatic heating profiles and vertical velocity profiles are also compared; these are related to the horizontal and vertical advective components of the moist entropy budget which contribute to gross moist stability, GMS, and normalized GMS (NGMS). The 4-km model with explicit convection and good MJO performance has a vertical heating structure that increases with height in the lower troposphere in regions of strong convection (like observations), whereas the 12-km model with parameterized convection and a poor MJO does not show this relationship. The 4-km explicit convection model also has a more top-heavy heating profile for the troposphere as a whole near and to the west of the active MJO-related convection, unlike the 12-km parameterized convection model. The dependence of entropy advection components on moisture convergence is fairly weak in all models, and differences between models are not always related to MJO performance, making comparisons to previous work somewhat inconclusive. However, models with relatively good MJO strength and propagation have a slightly larger increase of the vertical advective component with increasing moisture convergence, and their NGMS vertical terms have more variability in time and longitude, with total NGMS that is comparatively larger to the west and smaller to the east.