Quantifying chaos: a tale of two maps

In many applications, there is a desire to determine if the dynamics of interest are chaotic or not. Since positive Lyapunov exponents are a signature for chaos, they are often used to determine this. Reliable estimates of Lyapunov exponents should demonstrate evidence of convergence; but literature abounds in which this evidence lacks. This paper presents two maps through which it highlights the importance of providing evidence of convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. The results suggest cautious conclusions when confronted with real data. Moreover, the maps are interesting in their own right.

Early warning with calibrated and sharper probabilistic forecasts

Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting density forecasts will inevitably be downgraded by model mis-specification. In order to enhance the quality of the density forecasts, one can mix them with the unconditional density. This paper examines the value of combining conditional density forecasts with the unconditional density. The findings have positive implications for issuing early warnings in different disciplines including economics and meteorology, but UK inflation forecasts are considered as an example.

Initial distribution spread: A density forecasting approach

Ensemble forecasting of nonlinear systems involves the use of a model to run forward a discrete ensemble (or set) of initial states. Data assimilation techniques tend to focus on estimating the true state of the system, even though model error limits the value of such efforts. This paper argues for choosing the initial ensemble in order to optimise forecasting performance rather than estimate the true state of the system. Density forecasting and choosing the initial ensemble are treated as one problem. Forecasting performance can be quantified by some scoring rule. In the case of the logarithmic scoring rule, theoretical arguments and empirical results are presented. It turns out that, if the underlying noise dominates model error, we can diagnose the noise spread.

Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill

This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist philosophers interpret and motivate their research through a stronger collective identity. The overarching aim is to set the background for a collaborative project organising, systematising, and ultimately forging an identity for, European philosophy of science by creating research structures and developing research networks across Europe to promote its development.

Contrasting probabilistic scoring rules

There are several scoring rules that one can choose from in order to score probabilistic forecasting models or estimate model parameters. Whilst it is generally agreed that proper scoring rules are preferable, there is no clear criterion for preferring one proper scoring rule above another. This manuscript compares and contrasts some commonly used proper scoring rules and provides guidance on scoring rule selection. In particular, it is shown that the logarithmic scoring rule prefers erring with more uncertainty, the spherical scoring rule prefers erring with lower uncertainty, whereas the other scoring rules are indifferent to either option.

Machado de Assis em contos :Uma constelação de partituras

This work aims at encouraging the reading or rereading of tales such as Um homem célebre , Cantiga de esponsais , Terpsícore , Trio em lá menor , O machete , and Marcha fúnebre from the Brazilian writer Joaquim Maria Machado de Assis, hoping to find in them the manifestations of musicality, which is understood, from the viewpoint of contemporary musical theories, as dinamicity indications resulting from the melopaico (melodious verse) stimulus to the understanding of words and/or images, which are inserted in the writing static body from the literary procedures transferring to the text specific characteristics from other arts, such as music, poetry, performatic dance e theater. Such procedures, which are reflected in the writing as a product of Machado s close repertory, often favor, through the fiction, the delineation of the musical context from Rio de Janeiro in the 19th century, as well as the social implications that the transformations of the musical scene impose on the subjectivity constitution

Biodeterioration of harvested sugar cane in Jamaica

The microbiological, physical and chemical changes which occur instored, harvested sugarcane were studied in Jamaica and the United Kingdom.The degree of deterioration was proportional to time of storage, and wasrevealed by a statistically significant reduction in sucrose content.Other symptoms included a fall in pH, and increases in reducing sugars,dextran, viscosity, and microbial count. Cut cane was universally infectedwith Leuconostoc mesenteroides, which reached a maximum count of 107 to 108organisms per ml. juice within. 3 to 4 days of harvest. Counts of othermicroorganisms were generally insignificant, except for occasional lactobacilli.A new dextran-forming species was named Lactobacillus confusus.Microorganisms isolated from deteriorated cane were screened for theirability to cause deterioration of a sterile, synthetic cane juice. L. mesenteroides strains were the most deteriogenic, but attempts toreproduce the symptoms of "sour" cane by inoculation of this organism intocut cane were only partially successful. L. mesenteroides was present in the soil and the epiphytic flora of the stalk. The principal vector of infection appeared to be the cutters' machete, especially in wet weather. Cane harvested by a chopper machine deteriorated more rapidly than hand-cut whole-stalks. Economic losses due to deterioration of harvested cane were estimated to be 9.2% of the initial recoverable sugar for the 1969 crop at Frome Estate, Jamaica. Dextran content was a useful indicator of cane biodeterioration. The dextran content of mill juices was correlated with rainfall, and significant correlations were obtained between dextran content and viscosity of mill syrups and the amount of sugar lost in final molasses; it also caused the formation of elongated crystals. Attempts to control sour cane by chemical and physical methods were unsuccessful, and it was concluded that the only solution is to mill cane within 24 hours of harvest. A novel method for removal of dextran from mill juices by enzymic treatment with dextranase was developed and patented.

Mapped cetacean habitat suitability and richness in the Azores, links to ArcGIS files

Marine spatial planning and ecological research call for high-resolution species distribution data. However, those data are still not available for most marine large vertebrates. The dynamic nature of oceanographic processes and the wide-ranging behavior of many marine vertebrates create further difficulties, as distribution data must incorporate both the spatial and temporal dimensions. Cetaceans play an essential role in structuring and maintaining marine ecosystems and face increasing threats from human activities. The Azores holds a high diversity of cetaceans but the information about spatial and temporal patterns of distribution for this marine megafauna group in the region is still very limited. To tackle this issue, we created monthly predictive cetacean distribution maps for spring and summer months, using data collected by the Azores Fisheries Observer Programme between 2004 and 2009. We then combined the individual predictive maps to obtain species richness maps for the same period. Our results reflect a great heterogeneity in distribution among species and within species among different months. This heterogeneity reflects a contrasting influence of oceanographic processes on the distribution of cetacean species. However, some persistent areas of increased species richness could also be identified from our results. We argue that policies aimed at effectively protecting cetaceans and their habitats must include the principle of dynamic ocean management coupled with other area-based management such as marine spatial planning.

Pesca artesanal del Puerto Supe (Provincia de Barranca, Departamento de Lima) en el año 1998

Durante el año 1998 (*) la pesca artesanal en el Puerto Supe se registra el desembarque de 699 t de recursos hidrobiológicos, constituido por 35 especies hidrobiológicas entre peces (31) e invertebrados (4), entre los peces destacó el ayanque (Cynoscion analis) con 147808 k, el bagre (Galeichthys peruvianus) con 165095 k, la lisa (Mugil cephalus) con 53828 k, la lorna (Sciaena deliciosa) con 27898 k, el machete (Ethmídium maculatum) con 19663 k y el perico (Coryphaena hippurus) con 16472 k y entre los invertebrados el mas importante fue el langostino tití (Xíphopenaeus rivetí) con 220 t de captura. Operaron un promedio de 218 embarcaciones mensuales que realizaron faenas de pesca en 30 zonas, desde las Zorras a Ancón obteniendo un esfuerzo pesquero de 2621 viajes y un rendimiento promedio de 267 k/viaje, se capturaron especies asociadas al fenómeno "El Niño", tales como el perico (Coryphaena híppurus) y langostino tití (Xiphopenaeus rive i), que incrementaron su desembarque y las ausencias de otras especies como el pejerrey (Odontesthes regia regia) y el cangrejo morado (Platyxan thus oÍbignyi) . En Puerto Supe se desembarcaron recursos costeros provenientes de la flota industrial, para ser procesados e las plantas pesqueras harineras, se desembarco 723. 669 t, constituido por 3 especies, en este volumen de captura destacó el ayanque (Cynoscion analís) con 616.006 t, lorna (Sciaena deliciosa) con 105.265 t y el coco (Paralonchurus peruanus) con 2398 t, operaron 19 E/P industriales, que realizaron faenas de pesca en Bermejo y Paramonga con un esfuerzo pesquero de 48 viajes y un rendimiento promedio de 15,076 k/viaje. Los meses que se registraron, estos viajes, fue junio, julio, agosto, y octubre. En Puerto Supe se desembarcó un total de 1422.676 t tanto de la flota industrial y artesanal, obteniendo la pesca industrial 3.4% más que la flota artesanal, que operó en el año 357 días, (Los días 1,2,23 y 29 de Junio, 19 y 28 de Julio 3 y 4 de Octubre no salieron a la pesca por condiciones meteorológicas o fiestas) . La flota industrial opero solo 14 días en el año (01 días en Junio, 06 Julio, 01 en Agosto, y 06 días en Octubre). El arte que utilizaron las embarcaciones industriales fue el cerco anchovetero de tamaño de malla de 1/2 Pulg.