964 resultados para Méthode de Box-Jenkins


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The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

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The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

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Se presenta en este artículo la simulación de las características de envases de vidrio, mediante modelos auto regresivos (AR), siguiendo el enfoque Box-Jenkins. El artículo se presenta en dos partes: en la primera, se demuestra la adecuación de un modelo AR (2), para la simulación de los espesores a partir de las características estadísticas determinadas sobre cortes longitudinales de envases reales. En la segunda parte, se presenta la forma práctica que se ha desarrollado para la simulación de una muestra de veinte recipientes.

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Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

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Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

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This paper makes two points. First, we show that the line-of-sight solution to cosmic microwave anisotropies in Fourier space, even though formally defined for arbitrarily large wavelengths, leads to position-space solutions which only depend on the sources of anisotropies inside the past light cone of the observer. This foretold manifestation of causality in position (real) space happens order by order in a series expansion in powers of the visibility gamma = e(-mu), where mu is the optical depth to Thomson scattering. We show that the contributions of order gamma(N) to the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies are regulated by spacetime window functions which have support only inside the past light cone of the point of observation. Second, we show that the Fourier-Bessel expansion of the physical fields (including the temperature and polarization momenta) is an alternative to the usual Fourier basis as a framework to compute the anisotropies. The viability of the Fourier-Bessel series for treating the CMB is a consequence of the fact that the visibility function becomes exponentially small at redshifts z >> 10(3), effectively cutting off the past light cone and introducing a finite radius inside which initial conditions can affect physical observables measured at our position (x) over right arrow = 0 and time t(0). Hence, for each multipole l there is a discrete tower of momenta k(il) (not a continuum) which can affect physical observables, with the smallest momenta being k(1l) similar to l. The Fourier-Bessel modes take into account precisely the information from the sources of anisotropies that propagates from the initial value surface to the point of observation-no more, no less. We also show that the physical observables (the temperature and polarization maps), and hence the angular power spectra, are unaffected by that choice of basis. This implies that the Fourier-Bessel expansion is the optimal scheme with which one can compute CMB anisotropies.

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A secure communication system based on the error-feedback synchronization of the electronic model of the particle-in-a-box system is proposed. This circuit allows a robust and simple electronic emulation of the mechanical behavior of the collisions of a particle inside a box, exhibiting rich chaotic behavior. The required nonlinearity to emulate the box walls is implemented in a simple way when compared with other analog electronic chaotic circuits. A master/slave synchronization of two circuits exhibiting a rich chaotic behavior demonstrates the potentiality of this system to secure communication. In this system, binary data stream information modulates the bifurcation parameter of the particle-in-a-box electronic circuit in the transmitter. In the receiver circuit, this parameter is estimated using Pecora-Carroll synchronization and error-feedback synchronization. The performance of the demodulation process is verified through the eye pattern technique applied on the recovered bit stream. During the demodulation process, the error-feedback synchronization presented better performance compared with the Pecora-Carroll synchronization. The application of the particle-in-a-box electronic circuit in a secure communication system is demonstrated.

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This paper presents the design of a low cost accessible digital television set-top box. This set-top box was designed and tested to the International ISDB-T system and considered the adoption of solutions that would provide accessible services in digital television in the simplest digital television receiver. The accessible set-top box was evaluated regarding the processing and memory requirements impacts to provide the features for accessible services. The work presents also the access services bandwidth consumption analysis(1).

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Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium dose effect in the graft box of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) nutrition and production. The aim of the study was to evaluate the graft box of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) nutritional state and its components of growth in function of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium dose by fertilization. The experimental outlining was entirely made casually in factorial scheme 3(3) + 1, being 3 factors (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium - NPK), 3 doses and in evidence (without fertilization), with 3 repetitions. The experimental milt was constituted by two tubes of 2,8 cm diameter and 12,3 cm high with a graft box (Hipobioto) of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) in each tube. The doses used were constituted by doses of N (460; 920 e 18,10 mg dm(-3)), P (50; 100 e 200 mg dm(-3)) and K (395; 790 e 1580 mg dm(-3)). The fertilization with N and K was carried out by fertirrigations and the P added to the substract of Pinus rind and vermiculite before the seeding. when the plants were 133 days after the germination they were subdivided in radicular system and air part for the determinations of the dry matter mass, height, foliar area, stem diameter and contents of nutrients. The N, K and P doses of 920 mg dm(-3), 790 mg dm(-3), 100 mg dm(-3), respectively, were enough for the suitable development of the graft box of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) in tubes.

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An experimental design optimization (Box-Behnken design, BBD) was used to develop a CE method for the simultaneous resolution of propranolol (Prop) and 4-hydroxypropranolol enantiomers and acetaminophen (internal standard). The method was optimized using an uncoated fused silica capillary, carboxymethyl-beta-cyclodextrin (CM-beta-CD) as chiral selector and triethylamine/phosphoric acid buffer in alkaline conditions. A BBD for four factors was selected to observe the effects of buffer electrolyte concentration, pH, CM-beta-CD concentration and voltage on separation responses. Each factor was studied at three levels: high, central and low, and three center points were added. The buffer electrolyte concentration ranged from 25 to 75 mM, the pH ranged from 8 to 9, the CM-beta-CD concentration ranged from 3.5 to 4.5%w/v, and the applied run voltage ranged from 14 to 20 W. The responses evaluated were resolution and migration time for the last peak. The obtained responses were processed by Minitab (R) to evaluate the significance of the effects and to find the optimum analysis conditions. The best results were obtained using 4%w/v CM-beta-CD in 25 mM triethylamine/H(3)PO(4) buffer at pH 9 as running electrolyte and 17 kV of voltage. Resolution values of 1.98 and 1.95 were obtained for Prop and 4-hydroxypropranolol enantiomers, respectively. The total analysis time was around of 15 min. The BBD showed to be an adequate design for the development of a CE method, resulting in a rapid and efficient optimization of the pH and concentration of the buffer, cyclodextrin concentration and applied voltage.

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The Sox gene family (Sry like HMG box gene) is characterised by a conserved DNA sequence encoding a domain of approximately 80 amino acids which is responsible for sequence specific DNA binding. We initially published the identification and partial cDNA sequence of murine Sox18, a new member of this gene family, isolated from a cardiac cDNA library. This sequence allowed us to classify Sox18 into the F sub-group of Sox proteins, along with Sox7 and Sox17. Recently, we demonstrated that mutations in the Sox18 activation domain underlie cardiovascular and hair follicle defects in the mouse mutation, ragged (Ra) (Pennisi et al., 2000. Mutations in Sox18 underlie cardiovascular and hair follicle defecs in ragged mice. Nat. Genet. 24, 434-437). Ra homozygotes lack vibrissae and coat hairs, have generalised oedema and an accumulation of chyle in the peritoneum. Here we have investigated the genomic sequences encoding Sox18. Screening of a mouse genomic phage library identified four overlapping clones, we sequenced a 3.25 kb XbaI fragment that defined the entire coding region and approximately 1.5 kb of 5' flanking sequences. This identified (i) an additional 91 amino acids upstream of the previously designated methionine start codon in the original cDNA, and (ii);ln intron encoded within the HMG box/DNA binding domain in exactly the same position as that found in the Sox5, -13 and -17 genes. The Sox18 gene encodes a protein of 468 aa. We present evidence that suggests HAF-2, the human HMG-box activating factor-2 protein, is the orthologue of murine Sox18. HAF-2 has been implicated in the regulation of the Human IgH enhancer in a B cell context. Random mutagenesis coupled with GAL4 hybrid analysis in the activation domain between amino acids 252 and 346, of Sox18, implicated the phosphorylation motif, SARS, and the region between amino acid residues 313 and 346 as critical components of Sox18 mediated transactivation. Finally, we examined the expression of Sox18 in multiple adult mouse tissues using RT-PCR. Low-moderate expression was observed in spleen, stomach, kidney, intestine, skeletal muscle and heart. Very abundant expression was detected in lung tissue. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.