Long-term stasis in ecological assemblages: Evidence from the fossil record

Studies of plant and animal assemblages from both the terrestrial and the marine fossil records reveal persistence for extensive periods of geological time, sometimes millions of years. Persistence does not require lack of change or the absence of variation from one occurrence of the assemblage to the next in geological time. It does, however, imply that assemblage composition is bounded and that variation occurs within those bounds. The principal cause for these patterns appears to be species-, and perhaps clade-level, environmental fidelity that results in long-term tracking of physical conditions. Other factors that influence persistent recurrence of assemblages are historical, biogeographic effects, the law of large numbers, niche differentiation, and biotic interactions. Much research needs to be done in this area, and greater uniformity is needed in the approaches to studying the problem. However, great potential also exists for enhanced interaction between paleoecology and neoecology in understanding spatiotemporal complexity of ecological dynamics.

Foundations for the future : A long-term plan for Australian ecosystem science

Abstract: Australia’s ecosystems are the basis of our current and future prosperity, and our national well-being.A strong and sustainable Australian ecosystem science enterprise is vital for understanding and securing these ecosystems in the face of current and future challenges. This Plan defines the vision and key directions for a national ecosystem science capability that will enable Australia to understand and effectively manage its ecosystems for decades to come.The Plan’s underlying theme is that excellent science supports a range of activities, including public engagement, that enable us to understand and maintain healthy ecosystems.Those healthy ecosystems are the cornerstone of our social and economic well-being.The vision guiding the development of this Plan is that in 20 years’ time the status of Australian ecosystems and how they change will be widely reported and understood, and the prosperity and well-being they provide will be secure. To enable this, Australia’s national ecosystem science capability will be coordinated, collaborative and connected.The Plan is based on an extensive set of collaboratively generated proposals from national town hall meetings that also formthe basis for its implementation. Some directions within the Plan are for the Australian ecosystem science community itself to implement, others will involve the users of ecosystem science and the groups that fund ecosystem science.We identify six equal priority areas for action to achieve our vision: (i) delivering maximum impact for Australia: enhancing relationships between scientists and end-users; (ii) supporting long-termresearch; (iii) enabling ecosystem surveillance; (iv) making the most of data resources; (v) inspiring a generation: empowering the public with knowledge and opportunities; (vi) facilitating coordination, collaboration and leadership. This shared vision will enable us to consolidate our current successes, overcome remaining barriers and establish the foundations to ensure Australian ecosystem science delivers for the future needs of Australia..

Regional avian species declines estimated from volunteer-collected long-term data using List Length Analysis

Long-term systematic population monitoring data sets are rare but are essential in identifying changes in species abundance. In contrast, community groups and natural history organizations have collected many species lists. These represent a large, untapped source of information on changes in abundance but are generally considered of little value. The major problem with using species lists to detect population changes is that the amount of effort used to obtain the list is often uncontrolled and usually unknown. It has been suggested that using the number of species on the list, the "list length," can be a measure of effort. This paper significantly extends the utility of Franklin's approach using Bayesian logistic regression. We demonstrate the value of List Length Analysis to model changes in species prevalence (i.e., the proportion of lists on which the species occurs) using bird lists collected by a local bird club over 40 years around Brisbane, southeast Queensland, Australia. We estimate the magnitude and certainty of change for 269 bird species and calculate the probabilities that there have been declines and increases of given magnitudes. List Length Analysis confirmed suspected species declines and increases. This method is an important complement to systematically designed intensive monitoring schemes and provides a means of utilizing data that may otherwise be deemed useless. The results of List Length Analysis can be used for targeting species of conservation concern for listing purposes or for more intensive monitoring. While Bayesian methods are not essential for List Length Analysis, they can offer more flexibility in interrogating the data and are able to provide a range of parameters that are easy to interpret and can facilitate conservation listing and prioritization. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Superpixel-based appearance change prediction for long-term navigation across seasons

Changing environments pose a serious problem to current robotic systems aiming at long term operation under varying seasons or local weather conditions. This paper is built on our previous work where we propose to learn to predict the changes in an environment. Our key insight is that the occurring scene changes are in part systematic, repeatable and therefore predictable. The goal of our work is to support existing approaches to place recognition by learning how the visual appearance of an environment changes over time and by using this learned knowledge to predict its appearance under different environmental conditions. We describe the general idea of appearance change prediction (ACP) and investigate properties of our novel implementation based on vocabularies of superpixels (SP-ACP). Our previous work showed that the proposed approach significantly improves the performance of SeqSLAM and BRIEF-Gist for place recognition on a subset of the Nordland dataset under extremely different environmental conditions in summer and winter. This paper deepens the understanding of the proposed SP-ACP system and evaluates the influence of its parameters. We present the results of a large-scale experiment on the complete 10 h Nordland dataset and appearance change predictions between different combinations of seasons.

Long-Term Environmental Correlates of Invasion by Lantana camara (Verbenaceae) in a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest

Invasive species, local plant communities and invaded ecosystems change over space and time. Quantifying this change may lead to a better understanding of the ecology and the effective management of invasive species. We used data on density of the highly invasive shrub Lantana camara (lantana) for the period 1990-2008 from a 50 ha permanent plot in a seasonally dry tropical forest of Mudumalai in southern India. We used a cumulative link mixed-effects regression approach to model the transition of lantana from one qualitative density state to another as a function of biotic factors such as indicators of competition from local species (lantana itself, perennial grasses, invasive Chromolaena odorata, the native shrub Helicteres isora and basal area of native trees) and abiotic factors such as fire frequency, inter-annual variability of rainfall and relative soil moisture. The density of lantana increased substantially during the study period. Lantana density was negatively associated with the density of H. isora, positively associated with basal area of native trees, but not affected by the presence of grasses or other invasive species. In the absence of fire, lantana density increased with increasing rainfall. When fires occurred, transitions to higher densities occurred at low rainfall values. In drier regions, lantana changed from low to high density as rainfall increased while in wetter regions of the plot, lantana persisted in the dense category irrespective of rainfall. Lantana seems to effectively utilize resources distributed in space and time to its advantage, thus outcompeting local species and maintaining a population that is not yet self-limiting. High-risk areas and years could potentially be identified based on inferences from this study for facilitating management of lantana in tropical dry forests.

Long-Term Monitoring of Ecological Conditions In Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary: Comparison of soft-bottom benthic assemblages and contaminant levels in sediments and biota in Spring 2000 and 2005

As part of an ongoing program of benthic sampling and related assessments of sediment quality at Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) off the coast of Georgia, a survey of soft-bottom benthic habitats was conducted in spring 2005 to characterize condition of macroinfaunal assemblages and levels of chemical contaminants in sediments and biota relative to a baseline survey carried out in spring 2000. Distribution and abundance of macrobenthos were related foremost to sediment type (median particle size, % gravel), which in turn varied according to bottom-habitat mesoscale features (e.g., association with live bottom versus flat or rippled sand areas). Overall abundance and diversity of soft-bottom benthic communities were similar between the two years, though dominance patterns and relative abundances of component species were less repeatable. Seasonal summer pulses of a few taxa (e.g., the bivalve Ervilia sp. A) observed in 2000 were not observed in 2005. Concentrations of chemical contaminants in sediments and biota, though detectable in both years, were consistently at low, background levels and no exceedances of sediment probable bioeffect levels or FDA action levels for edible fish or shellfish were observed. Near-bottom dissolved oxygen levels and organic-matter content of sediments also have remained within normal ranges. Highly diverse benthic assemblages were found in both years, supporting the premise that GRNMS serves as an important reservoir of marine biodiversity. A total of 353 taxa (219 identified to species) were collected during the spring 2005 survey. Cumulatively, 588 taxa (371 identified to species) have been recorded in the sanctuary from surveys in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2005. Species Accumulation Curves indicate that the theoretical maximum should be in excess of 600 species. Results of this study will be of value in advancing strategic science and management goals for GRNMS, including characterization and long-term monitoring of sanctuary resources and processes, as well as supporting evolving interests in ecosystem-based management of the surrounding South Atlantic Bight (SAB) ecosystem. (PDF contains 46 pages)

Volcanic activity and global change: probable short-term and possible long-term linkages

Article reviews annual to decadal climate response to volcanism; long-term climatic response to volcanism; and recent results from ocean drilling in the North Pacific.

Is observed variability in the long-term results of the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey a response to climate change?

In the more than 50 years that the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has operated on a regular monthly basis in the north-east Atlantic and North Sea, large changes have been witnessed in the planktonic ecosystem. These changes have taken the form of long-term trends in abundance for certain species or stepwise changes for others, and in many cases are correlated with a mode of climatic variability in the North Atlantic, either: (1) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basin-scale atmospheric alteration of the pressure field between the Azores high pressure cell and the Icelandic Low; or (2) the Gulf Stream Index (GSI), which measures the latitudinal position of the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Recent work has shown that the changes in the GSI are coupled with the NAO and Pacific Southern Oscillation with a 2 year lag. The plankton variability is also possibly linked to changes observed in the distribution and flux of water masses in the surface, intermediate and deep waters of the North Atlantic. For example, in the last two decades, the extent and location of the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, Labrador Sea Intermediate Water and Norwegian Sea intermediate and upper-layer water has altered considerably. This paper discusses the extent to which observed changes in plankton abundance and distribution may be linked to this basin-scale variability in hydrodynamics. The results are also placed within the context of global climate warming and the possible effects of the observed melting of Arctic permafrost and sea ice on the subpolar North Atlantic.

Long-term responses of North Atlantic calcifying plankton to climate change

The global increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is potentially threatening marine biodiversity in two ways. First, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing global warming1. Second, carbon dioxide is altering sea water chemistry, making the ocean more acidic2. Although temperature has a cardinal influence on all biological processes from the molecular to the ecosystem level3, acidification might impair the process of calcification or exacerbate dissolution of calcifying organisms4. Here, we show however that North Atlantic calcifying plankton primarily responded to climate-induced changes in temperatures during the period 1960–2009, overriding the signal from the effects of ocean acidification. We provide evidence that foraminifers, coccolithophores, both pteropod and nonpteropod molluscs and echinoderms exhibited an abrupt shift circa 1996 at a time of a substantial increase in temperature5 and that some taxa exhibited a poleward movement in agreement with expected biogeographical changes under sea temperature warming6,7. Although acidification may become a serious threat to marine calcifying organisms, our results suggest that over the study period the primary driver of North Atlantic calcifying planktonwas oceanic temperature.

Black-legged kittiwakes as indicators of environmental change in the North Sea; evidence from long-term studies

Top predators, particularly seabirds, have repeatedly been suggested as indicators of marine ecosystem status. One region currently under pressure from human fisheries and climate change is the North Sea. Standardized seabird monitoring data have been collected on the Isle of May, an important seabird colony in the northwestern North Sea, over the last 10–20 years. Over this period oceanographic conditions have varied markedly, and between 1990 and 1999 a major industrial fishery for sandlance (Ammodytes marinus), the main prey of most seabird species, was prosecuted nearby. Sandlance fishing grounds close to seabird colonies down the east coast of the UK were closed in 2000 in an attempt to improve foraging opportunities for breeding seabirds, particularly black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Initially this closure seemed to be beneficial for kittiwakes with breeding success recovering to pre-fishery levels. However, despite the ban continuing, kittiwakes and many other seabird species in the North Sea suffered severe breeding failures in 2004. In this paper, we test the predictive power of four previously established correlations between kittiwake breeding success and climatic/trophic variables to explain the observed breeding success at the Isle of May in 2004. During the breeding season, kittiwakes at this colony switch from feeding on 1+ group to 0 group sandlance, and results up until 2003 indicated that availability of both age classes had a positive effect on kittiwake breeding success. The low breeding success of kittiwakes in 2004 was consistent with the late appearance and small body size of 0 group sandlance, but at odds with the two variables likely to operate via 1 group availability (lagged winter sea surface temperature and larval sandlance cohort strength in 2003). The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown, but analysis of 1 group sandlance body composition indicated that lipid content in 2004 was extremely low, and thus fish eaten by kittiwakes during pre-breeding and early incubation were likely to be of poor quality. Monitoring of reproductive success of kittiwakes, although useful, was clearly not sufficient to tease apart the complex causation underlying the 2004 event. Monitoring programs such as this, therefore, need to be complemented by detailed research to identify the mechanisms involved, and to attribute and predict the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change.

Long-term individual foraging site fidelity – why some gannets don’t change their spots

Many established models of animal foraging assume that individuals are ecologically equivalent. However, it is increasingly recognized that populations may comprise individuals who differ consistently in their diets and foraging behaviors. For example, recent studies have shown that individual foraging site fidelity (IFSF, when individuals consistently forage in only a small part of their population's home range) occurs in some colonial breeders. Short‐term IFSF could result from animals using a win–stay, lose–shift foraging strategy. Alternatively, it may be a consequence of individual specialization. Pelagic seabirds are colonial central‐place foragers, classically assumed to use flexible foraging strategies to target widely dispersed, spatiotemporally patchy prey. However, tracking has shown that IFSF occurs in many seabirds, although it is not known whether this persists across years. To test for long‐term IFSF and to examine alternative hypotheses concerning its cause, we repeatedly tracked 55 Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus) from a large colony in the North Sea within and across three successive breeding seasons. Gannets foraged in neritic waters, predictably structured by tidal mixing and thermal stratification, but subject to stochastic, wind‐induced overturning. Both within and across years, coarse to mesoscale (tens of kilometers) IFSF was significant but not absolute, and foraging birds departed the colony in individually consistent directions. Carbon stable isotope ratios in gannet blood tissues were repeatable within years and nitrogen ratios were also repeatable across years, suggesting long‐term individual dietary specialization. Individuals were also consistent across years in habitat use with respect to relative sea surface temperature and in some dive metrics, yet none of these factors accounted for IFSF. Moreover, at the scale of weeks, IFSF did not decay over time and the magnitude of IFSF across years was similar to that within years, suggesting that IFSF is not primarily the result of win–stay, lose–shift foraging. Rather, we hypothesize that site familiarity, accrued early in life, causes IFSF by canalizing subsequent foraging decisions. Evidence from this and other studies suggests that IFSF may be common in colonial central‐place foragers, with far‐reaching consequences for our attempts to understand and conserve these animals in a rapidly changing environment.

Beyond long-term averages: making biological sense of a rapidly changing world

Biological responses to climate change are typically communicated in generalized terms such as poleward and altitudinal range shifts, but adaptation efforts relevant to management decisions often require forecasts that incorporate the interaction of multiple climatic and nonclimatic stressors at far smaller spatiotemporal scales. We argue that the desire for generalizations has, ironically, contributed to the frequent conflation of weather with climate, even within the scientific community. As a result, current predictions of ecological responses to climate change, and the design of experiments to understand underlying mechanisms, are too often based on broad-scale trends and averages that at a proximate level may have very little to do with the vulnerability of organisms and ecosystems. The creation of biologically relevant metrics of environmental change that incorporate the physical mechanisms by which climate trains patterns of weather, coupled with knowledge of how organisms and ecosystems respond to these changes, can offer insight into which aspects of climate change may be most important to monitor and predict. This approach also has the potential to enhance our ability to communicate impacts of climate change to nonscientists and especially to stakeholders attempting to enact climate change adaptation policies.